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Mike Honcho

Tatis Jr. 340 Million!

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San Diego Padres, Fernando Tatis Jr. agree on 14-year, $340 million deal

Fernando Tatis Jr., the emerging face of baseball, agreed to a 14-year, $340 million contract extension with the San Diego Padres on Wednesday, securing one of the largest guarantees in American sports history and wedding himself to the team with which he quickly established himself as a star, sources familiar with the deal told ESPN.

 

He's only played 143 games!  NOT A FULL SEASON! 

:shocking:

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Worse contact than Carson Wentz

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An average of 24+ million a year.  I consider this a very good gamble for the Padre's

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14 minutes ago, BufordT said:

An average of 24+ million a year.  I consider this a very good gamble for the Padre's

Great point.  Being a DBacks fan, I saw way more than I wanted to of this guy.  He’s a freak.  A stud.  A freaking stud.  :( 

  • Like 1

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The Padres have built a quality team. It's definitely worth the price to lock him up. Look at the value the Dodgers just got with Betts

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They are obviously betting more on the future of the sport than they are the future of the player. They let players juice to revive it in the 90s, I am not certain what else they can do, the stats are already through the roof.

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7 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Great deal in 4 years that’s going to be a huge bargain. Not only that it shows we finally have an ownership committed to building a franchise 

Amen

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10 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

He gets 35 min on the open market right? 25 year old 40/40 gold glove SS?

35 x 5 easy

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Tatis has an insane BABIP in 2019.  Came back down in 2020.  He went from batting .317 to .277.  He's still got room to fall back even more.  Tatis might settle in as a .260 hitter with power.  He is also not a bad ball hitter and needs to improve plate discipline to cut down strikeouts. 

Overall this is an insanely risky contract.  I wouldn't have done this if I were the Padres.

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2 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

Tatis has an insane BABIP in 2019.  Came back down in 2020.  He went from batting .317 to .277.  He's still got room to fall back even more.  Tatis might settle in as a .260 hitter with power.  He is also not a bad ball hitter and needs to improve plate discipline to cut down strikeouts. 

Overall this is an insanely risky contract.  I wouldn't have done this if I were the Padres.

How come it’s always that side of the argument. I never hear people say wow this guy just went thru his 20 and 21 year old seasons and was a monster imagine how good he will be as he matures and gets better

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3 hours ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

How come it’s always that side of the argument. I never hear people say wow this guy just went thru his 20 and 21 year old seasons and was a monster imagine how good he will be as he matures and gets better

The actual people who watch him and spent 340 million on him said exactly that

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4 hours ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

How come it’s always that side of the argument. I never hear people say wow this guy just went thru his 20 and 21 year old seasons and was a monster imagine how good he will be as he matures and gets better

Because Bryce Harper. He could become a totally selfish, 500 foot homerun chasing, cancer. He'll sell jerseys but will never win anything, and be looked as a leader who refuses to lead. Who knew this when he was 21? Tatis being an infielder does decrease this likelihood,  IMO.

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1 hour ago, TimmySmith said:

Because Bryce Harper. He could become a totally selfish, 500 foot homerun chasing, cancer. He'll sell jerseys but will never win anything, and be looked as a leader who refuses to lead. Who knew this when he was 21? Tatis being an infielder does decrease this likelihood,  IMO.

Harper is the example I immediately thought of where a huge contract isn't paying off.  I suppose it still could, but he really looks like an avg. player right now.  Machado and Betts were the other 2.  Betts was a key piece that helped LA get over the hump, so most would call that a win already.  Machado is an interesting one.  Not a great first year with the Padres, but in last year's shortened season, he was arguably the best player on that team.  It will be interesting to see how he and Tatis follow that up this year.  

Last year Tatis hit .277 with 17 HR and had an OPS of .937

Machado hit .304 with 16 HR and had an OPS of .950.  (he's also a major doosh)

The reality is, we could be looking at 2 generational players not only on the same team, but on the same side of the infield.  

Tatis will definitely sell Jerseys and tickets. (if they ever allow fans again) He's already being talked about as the face of baseball.  Of course, anything could happen.  A nagging back injury during his first season might be some cause for concern.  Back issues tend to be chronic.  

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7 hours ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

How come it’s always that side of the argument. I never hear people say wow this guy just went thru his 20 and 21 year old seasons and was a monster imagine how good he will be as he matures and gets better

I don't always make that statement.  If a young hitter is a great bad ball hitter with power, I say pay the guy.  But Tatis has a bad BB/K ratio his entire career and doesn't hit bad balls well.  To me he looks like he will settle in as a good hitter with a great glove.  A very nice asset but no way do I pay him.

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The steal of the offseason is the Indians grabbing Eddie Rosario for $8 million. 

Rosario is a great bad ball hitter and just came off a really unlucky year where his BABIP was just .248, so he looks to rebound to just a normal BABIP and be a monster again.  

The Twins are stupid.

What's really scary about Rosario is his production with terrible luck was close to Tatis with great luck.  Think about that.  Also, all of MLB is stupid for not signing Rosario to a huge deal the second he became a free agent.

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18 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

The steal of the offseason is the Indians grabbing Eddie Rosario for $8 million. 

Rosario is a great bad ball hitter and just came off a really unlucky year where his BABIP was just .248, so he looks to rebound to just a normal BABIP and be a monster again.  

The Twins are stupid.

What's really scary about Rosario is his production with terrible luck was close to Tatis with great luck.  Think about that.  Also, all of MLB is stupid for not signing Rosario to a huge deal the second he became a free agent.

A guy with a career high of an .835 ops and averages 5 sbs while playing horrible defense in the OF is almost the same as tatis 

🤦‍♂️
 

when was Rosario a stud?  He’s barely replacement level

 

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3 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

A guy with a career high of an .835 ops and averages 5 sbs while playing horrible defense in the OF is almost the same as tatis 

🤦‍♂️

This is the era of advanced stats. Everyone is about swinging for the fences and mashing in general.  You don't pay $340mm for a gold glove.

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3 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

This is the era of advanced stats. Everyone is about swinging for the fences and mashing in general.  You don't pay $340mm for a gold glove.

Yah bro you think a guy with a career oPS of .788 is almost the same as a 22 year old with a career OPS over 950 with elite speed

you should probably stop. You know more than every GM in baseball

🎭

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14 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

Worth every penny

:lol:

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5 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

Quoting this for October

Quoting this for 2031 :lol:

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11 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Yah bro you think a guy with a career oPS of .788 is almost the same as a 22 year old with a career OPS over 950 with elite speed

you should probably stop. You know more than every GM in baseball

🎭

Why don't you just say you don't understand luck in baseball and how lucky Tatis was at the plate early in his career to artifically boost those "career" numbers?

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6 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Why don't you just say you don't understand luck in baseball and how lucky Tatis was at the plate early in his career to artifically boost those "career" numbers?

I don't understand luck in baseball.  Is this a measurable statistic or your observation?

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3 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

I don't understand luck in baseball.  Is this a measurable statistic or your observation?

Yeah, I don't get it either.  What I do get is scouts have all off season to analyze a hitter's weaknesses and pitchers are great enough to hit those spots way more than they miss. 

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26 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Why don't you just say you don't understand luck in baseball and how lucky Tatis was at the plate early in his career to artifically boost those "career" numbers?

Might wanna take a peak at who had the highest exit velocity in baseball and then get back to me when you realize that has a huge factor in babip and nothing to do with luck

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2020&position=&team=&min=q&sort=12&sortDir=desc

 

just go ahead and sort any category you like

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15 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

I don't understand luck in baseball.  Is this a measurable statistic or your observation?

It compares with GRT+. (This is a made up ratio that is used to explain when you have a David Eckstein anomaly it’s GRIT + heart)

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41 minutes ago, edjr said:

Quoting this for 2031 :lol:

If you're going to come back in 2031, you're probably on the wrong side of this debate.  If Tatis wasn't worth the investment, you'll be back in 2024 to gloat.

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2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If you're going to come back in 2031, you're probably on the wrong side of this debate.  If Tatis wasn't worth the investment, you'll be back in 2024 to gloat.

I wasn't aware they have to stop paying him in 2024, or any year before 2035 if he flames out. Thanks for the guidance.

This is worse than the Miggy Cabrera contract. 

31 million a year until 2025. Laughable

 

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Same guys touting exit velocity are the same ones who say “why don’t they just hit it the other way” when it comes to the shift. Nerds. 

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8 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Same guys touting exit velocity are the same ones who say “why don’t they just hit it the other way” when it comes to the shift. Nerds. 

yes

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32 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

I don't understand luck in baseball.  Is this a measurable statistic or your observation?

 

26 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Yeah, I don't get it either.  What I do get is scouts have all off season to analyze a hitter's weaknesses and pitchers are great enough to hit those spots way more than they miss. 

 

18 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Might wanna take a peak at who had the highest exit velocity in baseball and then get back to me when you realize that has a huge factor in babip and nothing to do with luck

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2020&position=&team=&min=q&sort=12&sortDir=desc

 

just go ahead and sort any category you like

You could get a gauge on luck in baseball.  BABIP.  Balls hit in play (remember, this doesn't count HR's), generally are a "hit" about 30% of the time.  You'll notice "luck" when a player is routinely hitting a number and then all of a sudden it makes a huge jump or massive drop.  When you look at Freddie Freeman, who's actually one of the best true hitters in baseball, his career BABIP is around .340, so in years where he would be at say, .380 or .300, those would be examples of lucky or unlucky years.

It's not really easy to draw a gauge on Tatis in the majors about what his BABIP would be because he doesn't have enough PA's.  In 2019, he had 372 PA's and had a BABIP of .410... that's lucky because no one does that long term.  Last year, he had 257 PA's with a BABIP of .306 which isn't a very reliable number based on the circumstances.  In the minors he was around .350, so if you wanted to use that as a rough starting point, you'd basically say that his rookie season was lucky and his second season was unlucky.  Personally, I think it's unfair to draw any true conclusions on him at this point.

Now, for the Rosario argument, he's just wrong.  His career BABIP is .305, so anything over .340 would be "lucky" and anything under .270 would be "unlucky".  He was never over .340 and was under .270 once... last year.  Now, I will say that you could make the argument that he was unlucky the last 2 years and that his normal BABIP should be around .320.  I think that would be fair.  But still, he's a trade off guy.  Meaning, if you want a higher batting average, you'll have to sacrifice power... and vice versa.  You won't have to do that with Tatis.

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