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Kopy

Thoughts on rookies in a dynasty draft?

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Anyone done their evaluations or looked at any mocks yet? In a 12 team dynasty I was wondering if it was better to have pick 2.1, or picks 2.7 and 2.9 

I'm not really sure how deep and good this class is. Covid really took me out of the college game this past year.

 

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I don't play Dynasty but I am plugged into the Draft prospects and the college game as much as ever. I'll take a crack at it, obviously without knowing where the prospects eventually land could change things considerably.

1.1- RB Najee Harris- likely first RB taken possibly in rd 1. Smaller, more agile version of D. Henry

1.2- RB-Travis Etienne- Home run hitter, some inconsistency at Clemson

1.3 WR-Jamarr Chase- Opted out but was Burrow's # 1 to Justin Jefferson's # 2 so if JJ did what he did Chase will do...?

1.4 TE- Kyle Pitts- If he was a WR might be my #1 pick. He's that good...

1.5 RB- Javonte Williams- Scouts are higher on him than I am, but he will be drafted early and is a RB, and is  a dual threat option.

1.6 WR- Devonte Smith- His slight frame is a little concerning, but his talent is ridiculous. Reminded me of Jerry Rice in how wide open he always was.

1.7 QB- Trevor Lawrence- Franchise QB, possibly best QB prospect since Luck. How valuable are QB's in dynasty?

1.8 WR-Jaylen Waddle- Smaller Tyreek Hill. Speed and can make contested catches.

1.9 QB- Zach Wilson- Chris Simms has him ahead Lawrence, and the more I've studied him the more I think he's not that crazy.

1.10 RB- Chubba Hubbard- May be the biggest Boom-or-Bust Dynast prospect in the draft. Has the talent to be elite, but injury and attitude questions abound.

1.11 WR- Kadarious Toney- Yac Monster similar to Deebo or Robert Woods.

1.12 QB- Whoever SF drafts at # 3 overall- Lets say for now it's Trey Lance, but if Fields or Mac Jones move them here.

2.1 QB- J. Fields- His running ability should translate nicely into fantasy points

2.2 TE- Pat Friermuth- If it wasn't for Pitts this guy would get much more hype. Can block, catch and run.

2.3 WR R. Bateman- Good size, meh speed, but great body control and propensity for making big time catches. Smaller Michael Thomas.

2.4 WR- Rondale Moore- Just destroyed his Pro Day, running a sub 4.3. Might be too small for some (5-9, 180). In the right offense he can be a more electric version of Curtis Samuel.

2.5 WR- Nico Collins at 6'4 215, Nico ran a 4.42 with a 37.5 vertical. Do the math...

2.6 WR- Terrance Marshall- the biggest of the LSU stars, he's also considered more of a slot reciever, who doesn't win enough when lined up outside. 

2.7 RB- Michael Carter- the 'other NC RB (my 1.5 Javonte Williams the other), arguably the best pass catcher in the draft of RB's, his 5'8 stature reminds me of Giovanni Bernard, aka not a feature back.

2.8 QB-Mac Jones- Depends on what team drafts him, I am not overly impressed with his physical characteristics and arm talent. It is so hard to evaluate how good he is because of the talent he had on his team. Reminds me of a poor man's Daniel Jones, very cerebral.

2.9 WR- Anthony Schwartz- Track Star speed, but raw WR. Auburn rarely seems to utilize their talent properly. See Slayton, Darious.

So based on this rough list, I would prefer 2.1 over 2.7 and 2.9, unless I needed WR. There are a number of good wr's that didn't even make the list (Seth Williams, Dwayne Eskridge, Elijah Moore, and Amon-RA St. Brown, to name but a few). Good luck!

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Depending on who drafts him and I hope he goes to a team that needs an RB I like rb prospect CHUBBA HUBBARD. With a name like that he's gotta have some success at the NFL level.

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On 3/27/2021 at 10:04 AM, Kopy said:

Anyone done their evaluations or looked at any mocks yet? In a 12 team dynasty I was wondering if it was better to have pick 2.1, or picks 2.7 and 2.9 

I'm not really sure how deep and good this class is. Covid really took me out of the college game this past year.

 

I guess it depends on what you need, but I would want the higher pick.

It's hard to say on rookies and dynasty before the draft. Once the RBs fall into place with their pro teams, it should be much clearer.

Although there doesn't appear to be a Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliott in this draft that's the clear top pick.

RB, seems like a typical year, there's a few, but good luck guessing which ones pan out.

Last season was the dynasty draft if you needed WRs, although there a couple at the top that look good.

This season seems like it's the one if you want to try and get a stud QB. Trevor Lawrence is the best QB prospect in a while. At least one or two of the next few should be fun to watch.

Kyle Pitts will be taken high, but outside of him TE don't draft a rookie TE.

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On 3/27/2021 at 7:04 AM, Kopy said:

Anyone done their evaluations or looked at any mocks yet? In a 12 team dynasty I was wondering if it was better to have pick 2.1, or picks 2.7 and 2.9 

I'm not really sure how deep and good this class is. Covid really took me out of the college game this past year.

 

 

 

Really, really, early Kopy but if its not 2 QB or SF I do like the 2 later seconds over 2.01 at this point, even though I'd tend to want to go the other way most years.

Settings could matter, such as how deep the rosters, is there a taxi etc. If you need the space always consolidate.

I think some of these WRs that are mocked high in the NFL Draft and rookie drafts might be better best ball options if its that type of league....... but I'm not in love with the middle down of the 1st round, top of the second. I'd probably rather take 2 shots just a little later on guys who are being mocked later in the NFL/Rookie Draft if my roster has ample room this year.

But mainly I think this is a solid year to use mid-low 1st round picks to trade for vets that improve your lineup for the next couple of years over prospects.

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I wonder how many people are going to fall for Kyle Pitts.  

I know everyone is salivating over him, but here are the tightends drafted in the last 20 years in the top 20.  He reminds me of vernon davis.  Physical specimen that doesn't block.

Tj hockenson - 8
Oj howard - 19
Eric ebron  10
Brandon pettigrew - 20
Vernon davis - 6
Kellen Winslow - 6
Jeremy shockey - 14
Bubba Franks - 14
 

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Vernon Davis was a 2x pro bowler, Superbowl champion, and tied the NFL record for most Td's by a TE in 2009 with 13. He finished in the top 10-15 all time in several categories. Not a great example. Shockey was a 4x pro-bowler, won 2 superbowls, rookie of the year, and was first team all-pro in 2002. Another bad example. TJ Hockenson, in just his second year, finished as the TE4 in half ppr. Another poor example. What all 3 have in common is none of them were talked about being converted to WR. Pitts' is a superior pass catcher to all of them coming out of college. Now he would benefit from going to the right fit, and TE's traditionally don't produce much their rookie years, with Shockey as a rare exception. But in a few years, Pitts should be on a similar track as Darren Waller, at least...

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Oh snap, they were pro bowlers and they won super bowls?  You should draft Pitts very high.

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In redraft I would never draft a rookie TE high. In dynasty he would be my 4th rookie off the board. Is that high enough for you?

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This rookie class sucks, but 4th overall is too high for me.  I'd draft Najee, Etienne, Javonte,  Chubba, Chase, Waddle, probably Bateman, and Lawrence over him (not in that order).

I believe Davonte is too small to be a featured weapon in an offense.

You can draft whomever you want wherever you want obviously.  I was just making the point that pro bowls are usually on name value, and super bowl wins are absolutely irrelevant to fantasy drafting.

I mean, in the case of vernon davis, would you be excited to draft a guy that was going to have 2 good fantasy seasons in his whole career 4th overall?

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He finished top 10 all time in yards and touchdowns. I would be more than satisfied with any pick I made to join that club. Pitts is a much more polished receiver than Vernon was coming out of college. Vernon was more Freakish, but Pitts can run a more complete route tree and has fantastic hands. He reminds me of Darren Waller and Plexico Buress. But hey don’t draft him, advantage your opponents....

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I only play redraft so unlikely I will draft him, but if I’m not happy with my TE, I’d be happy to take a flier. If the NFL team that drafts him makes him a WR, I’ll be more interested. Enjoy Chubba Hubbard...

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10 hours ago, jrokh said:

But in a few years, Pitts should be on a similar track as Darren Waller, at least...

Getting a longshot 2nd chance with another team after washing out of the league with drugs?

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I actually picked up Waller in my dynasty while he was with the Ravens.  He didn't have the decency to get sober until after I dropped him.

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22 hours ago, jrokh said:

Vernon Davis was a 2x pro bowler, Superbowl champion, and tied the NFL record for most Td's by a TE in 2009 with 13. He finished in the top 10-15 all time in several categories. Not a great example. Shockey was a 4x pro-bowler, won 2 superbowls, rookie of the year, and was first team all-pro in 2002. Another bad example. TJ Hockenson, in just his second year, finished as the TE4 in half ppr. Another poor example. What all 3 have in common is none of them were talked about being converted to WR. Pitts' is a superior pass catcher to all of them coming out of college. Now he would benefit from going to the right fit, and TE's traditionally don't produce much their rookie years, with Shockey as a rare exception. But in a few years, Pitts should be on a similar track as Darren Waller, at least...

Very good points jrokh. Pitts is not gonna block like my 49ers Kittle but whatever team drafts him probably won't ask him to block a lot. Seems like he's more like Kelce and he's gonna be a mismatch for anyone to cover. He's got the talent to be a TOP 5 TE in three years. I want to keep an eye on Chuba Hubbard as well. He's not getting a lot of hype. There's 5 or 6 guys they have ranked above him and he'll probably come in to the NFL with a chip on his shoulders for all the guys that get drafted ahead of him. Hopefully he goes to a team in need of a guy that can start. Will he go in the first 2 rounds? Possibly, but more likely  to go round 3. 

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1 hour ago, DocNiner said:

Very good points jrokh. Pitts is not gonna block like my 49ers Kittle but whatever team drafts him probably won't ask him to block a lot. Seems like he's more like Kelce and he's gonna be a mismatch for anyone to cover. He's got the talent to be a TOP 5 TE in three years. I want to keep an eye on Chuba Hubbard as well. He's not getting a lot of hype. There's 5 or 6 guys they have ranked above him and he'll probably come in to the NFL with a chip on his shoulders for all the guys that get drafted ahead of him. Hopefully he goes to a team in need of a guy that can start. Will he go in the first 2 rounds? Possibly, but more likely  to go round 3. 

earlier in the thread I said this about Hubbard 

 

On 3/27/2021 at 11:47 AM, jrokh said:

1.10 RB- Chubba Hubbard- May be the biggest Boom-or-Bust Dynast prospect in the draft. Has the talent to be elite, but injury and attitude questions abound.

That's where I am on him. He has some red flags, but a lot of talent and had a season of elite production. Plus, I don't trust those Canadians...

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Hubbard at 1.10 seems to be right.  He's better than the ones behind him. Yes some red flags with attitude issues I guess but hopefully he goes to a team that can get his mind nfl right. Talented back and would hate to see him waste it with.attitude. I'll definitely be looking to target him in some leagues where I have late 1st round rookie drafts.

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