Shark tooth Contest: How many wins will The Pittsburgh Pirates Have this Year. 2 Winners

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,566]

1 hour ago, Mike Honcho said:

After 1 week Pirates are on pace for 23 Wins and 162HR's.

I will take the over

26 164

 

[Mike Honcho 4,008]

On 4/9/2021 at 12:18 PM, Mike Honcho said:

After 1 week Pirates are on pace for 23 Wins and 162HR's.

After a hot streak we end week 2 at a pace of 62 Wins and 124 HR's.  And I picked 62 games, so we know that's not going to be how it ends.

[posty 2,296]

Have I already lost again?

[Mike Honcho 4,008]

On 4/16/2021 at 1:02 PM, Mike Honcho said:

After a hot streak we end week 2 at a pace of 62 Wins and 124 HR's.  And I picked 62 games, so we know that's not going to be how it ends.

And the wins keep coming....Pirates are now on pace for 77 wins  and 127 home runs.  @joneo and @Mike Isles are in the lead!

[joneo 529]

19 minutes ago, Mike Honcho said:

And the wins keep coming....Pirates are now on pace for 77 wins  and 127 home runs.  @joneo and @Mike Isles are in the lead!

[Mike Isles 583]

3 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

And the wins keep coming....Pirates are now on pace for 77 wins  and 127 home runs.  @joneo and @Mike Isles are in the lead!

[Bill E. 666]

7 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

And the wins keep coming....Pirates are now on pace for 77 wins  and 127 home runs.  @joneo and @Mike Isles are in the lead!

That seems to happen every year.  Then late May rolls around and they suck again. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

It sucks, I was on vacation when this started, so I didn't get in.  As a Pirates fan, I'd have begrudgingly had predicted them to finish with the worst record (well, not really), in baseball history, but it's starting to look like 2015!

Since April 9th, the Pirates have the 5th best record (tied with Seattle and LA), at 10-5, in the league.  Shocking everyone, especially us Pirates fans.  The Pirates just wrapped up a 9-game road swing and won all 3 series' 2 games to 1.  It's the first time the Pirates won all 3 series on a road trip since 2015 when they went 98-64.  That year, they finished April games over .500.  The Pirates wrap up the month of April with 2 home games vs the Royals and a home game vs the Cardinals.

In 2015, the 98-win team was not only just 2 games over .500 at the end of April (12-10), but they were at that same point at the end of May (26-24), after finishing the month of May with a 14-14 record.  The next 3 months were the key's to that season when they went 53-26.  Can that happen again??  The likelihood is extremely thing because this team doesn't have an MVP player like McCutchen or an ace like Gerrit Cole... but it's nice to consider.

Now, to be fair, this current team may actually have a better lineup.  The 2015 team had no one hit .300.  The Pirates have 3 guys who have that ability (A. Frazier, Reynolds, and Hayes).  That team only had 2 guys who posted an OPS over .800... this team has 5 guys who have that ability (A. Frazier, Reynolds, Moran, Polanco, and Hayes).  It's also not like the rotation was great either back in 2015.  Yes, Cole was awesome and Liriano was good, but the rest was mediocre at best.  Locke, Burnette, and Morton were combined 1 game under .500 and an ERA of 4.12.  Yes, the acquisition of Happ did help, but he didn't get to the team until August.  By then, the Pirates had already posted a June/July record of 34-18.  JT Brubaker made his MLB debut last year, after being a 2015 (coincidence perhaps?), 6th round draft pick, and has pitched really well in his 4 starts this year.  Keller got rocked in his outing vs the Padres, but his other 3 starts were pretty good.  Keller, while getting called up one year earlier than Brubaker, only has 7 more career starts (5 more games).  Both are young and could be really good.  Neither projects to be an ace, but both project to be front end starters.

In the end, I think the Pirates will be a lot closer to .500 than I thought they'd be.  Honestly, I do feel that this team has the potential to win 90+ games, but that would require everything to go right.  This is baseball.  The odds of everything going right over 162 games is slim, so I think the most likely scenario is that they win about 77 games... which is remarkable because before the season started, I thought they'd be in the 50's.  If I were to have been in on ground 0 of this post, I'd have projected 57 wins and 140 HR's.  Right now, they're on pace for 81 and 133.  An updated win total for me would be 77 wins.  I'll keep the 140 for HR's.

[Mike Honcho 4,008]

And after 49 games, the Pirates are 18 and 31 putting them on pace for 59 Wins with 109HR's .    @fandandy and @posty both took 59 wins with Posty being closer in HR's.  So obviously this is not how things will finish for the Pirates. 

[posty 2,296]

5 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

And after 49 games, the Pirates are 18 and 31 putting them on pace for 59 Wins with 109HR's .    @fandandy and @posty both took 59 wins with Posty being closer in HR's.  So obviously this is not how things will finish for the Pirates. 

I fully expect something huge to happen to keep from winning a tooth...

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

A team with little depth saw some key injuries early.  Ke'Bryan Hayes getting hurt and being out since the 2nd game really hurt this team.  Him being out since then really hurt.  At the time I made my post, I expected him to be back soon... but he's still not back yet.  The biggest hit was Moran getting hurt and adding to the problem.  Since he's been out, they're 5-13 and with both Hayes and Moran being out, their run production is really bad.  Prior to Moran being out, the Pirates averaged 3.5 runs per game, since being out, they're averaging 2.9.

After this season, Adam Frazier will enter his 2nd year of arbitration.  If he continues to hit with his current slash line, 332 / .395 / .451, you can expect him to be traded by the deadline.  If Moran comes back soon as well and picks up where he left off, he'll be traded too.  I wouldn't be surprised if they also traded Richard Rodriguez and Kyle Crick to be traded.  The Pirates won't be winning in the next 2 years and none of these 4 guys will be around then anyway, so no point in keeping them at their highest trade value point.

I can see 50 wins as a legit possibility... maybe even as low as 45.

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

That was crazy yesterday watching them try to get that guy out at first instead of touching the bag.

[Cloaca du jour 2,064]

11 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

That was crazy yesterday watching them try to get that guy out at first instead of touching the bag.

Heard about that hilarity on the radio...lol

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

1 hour ago, Cloaca du jour said:

Heard about that hilarity on the radio...lol

Yea it was insane and you'd think the players would know the rules to the game.

[Cdub100 3,366]

How am I doing?

[Mike Isles 583]

6 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Yea it was insane and you'd think the players would know the rules to the game.

Yeah MLB was stoopid for showcasing that. Hey look how dumb our players are !

[Bill E. 666]

On 4/26/2021 at 9:52 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

It sucks, I was on vacation when this started, so I didn't get in.  As a Pirates fan, I'd have begrudgingly had predicted them to finish with the worst record (well, not really), in baseball history, but it's starting to look like 2015!

Since April 9th, the Pirates have the 5th best record (tied with Seattle and LA), at 10-5, in the league.  Shocking everyone, especially us Pirates fans.  The Pirates just wrapped up a 9-game road swing and won all 3 series' 2 games to 1.  It's the first time the Pirates won all 3 series on a road trip since 2015 when they went 98-64.  That year, they finished April games over .500.  The Pirates wrap up the month of April with 2 home games vs the Royals and a home game vs the Cardinals.

In 2015, the 98-win team was not only just 2 games over .500 at the end of April (12-10), but they were at that same point at the end of May (26-24), after finishing the month of May with a 14-14 record.  The next 3 months were the key's to that season when they went 53-26.  Can that happen again??  The likelihood is extremely thing because this team doesn't have an MVP player like McCutchen or an ace like Gerrit Cole... but it's nice to consider.

Now, to be fair, this current team may actually have a better lineup.  The 2015 team had no one hit .300.  The Pirates have 3 guys who have that ability (A. Frazier, Reynolds, and Hayes).  That team only had 2 guys who posted an OPS over .800... this team has 5 guys who have that ability (A. Frazier, Reynolds, Moran, Polanco, and Hayes).  It's also not like the rotation was great either back in 2015.  Yes, Cole was awesome and Liriano was good, but the rest was mediocre at best.  Locke, Burnette, and Morton were combined 1 game under .500 and an ERA of 4.12.  Yes, the acquisition of Happ did help, but he didn't get to the team until August.  By then, the Pirates had already posted a June/July record of 34-18.  JT Brubaker made his MLB debut last year, after being a 2015 (coincidence perhaps?), 6th round draft pick, and has pitched really well in his 4 starts this year.  Keller got rocked in his outing vs the Padres, but his other 3 starts were pretty good.  Keller, while getting called up one year earlier than Brubaker, only has 7 more career starts (5 more games).  Both are young and could be really good.  Neither projects to be an ace, but both project to be front end starters.

In the end, I think the Pirates will be a lot closer to .500 than I thought they'd be.  Honestly, I do feel that this team has the potential to win 90+ games, but that would require everything to go right.  This is baseball.  The odds of everything going right over 162 games is slim, so I think the most likely scenario is that they win about 77 games... which is remarkable because before the season started, I thought they'd be in the 50's.  If I were to have been in on ground 0 of this post, I'd have projected 57 wins and 140 HR's.  Right now, they're on pace for 81 and 133.  An updated win total for me would be 77 wins.  I'll keep the 140 for HR's.

Great analysis at the time.  Sadly...

[Bill E. 666]

Just Sad

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

13 minutes ago, Mike Isles said:

Yeah MLB was stoopid for showcasing that. Hey look how dumb our players are !

Lol yep and bet the first baseman will never live that down.

[Bill E. 666]

2 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Lol yep and bet the first baseman will never live that down.

I think he was just trying to hold the runner at third but he kept coming.  Then there was so much congestion at the plate that it blew up. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

Just now, Bill E. said:

I think he was just trying to hold the runner at third but he kept coming.  Then there was so much congestion at the plate that it blew up. 

You are probably right but then the whole play just went wrong.

[Mookz 1,287]

20 minutes ago, Bill E. said:

I think he was just trying to hold the runner at third but he kept coming.  Then there was so much congestion at the plate that it blew up. 

But there were two outs, the runner at third was irrelevant.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

23 minutes ago, Mookz said:

But there were two outs, the runner at third was irrelevant.  

Didn't know there was two outs so sounding more like the most bonehead play in MLB history.

[Mookz 1,287]

5 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Didn't know there was two outs so sounding more like the most bonehead play in MLB history.

Yeah, I think he expected the guy to run into his tag, which you sometimes see, but then when the guy started running back to the plate, his brain switched into "rundown mode" and went on autopilot.  Can't say for sure I wouldn't do the same thing. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

4 minutes ago, Mookz said:

Yeah, I think he expected the guy to run into his tag, which you sometimes see, but then when the guy started running back to the plate, his brain switched into "rundown mode" and went on autopilot.  Can't say for sure I wouldn't do the same thing. 

I see and yea we are all human.

[frank 2,144]

1 hour ago, Mookz said:

Yeah, I think he expected the guy to run into his tag, which you sometimes see, but then when the guy started running back to the plate, his brain switched into "rundown mode" and went on autopilot.  Can't say for sure I wouldn't do the same thing. 

One time on the first hand of blackjack on a casino trip, I was dealt something like 15 against a 6. My hand started to make the hit sign. It was like it was in slow motion. I knew something was wrong but I wasn’t sure what and I couldn’t stop my hand. It was like I woke up just as my finger hit the table.

[Bill E. 666]

3 hours ago, Mookz said:

But there were two outs, the runner at third was irrelevant.  

I missed that.

[Bill E. 666]

Man next year the tiebreaker should be how many teams finish with a worse winning percentage than PIT.  Right now it is 2.

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

2 hours ago, Bill E. said:

Man next year the tiebreaker should be how many teams finish with a worse winning percentage the PIT.  Right now it is 2.

They scored 11 runs and barely won yesterday.

[Bill E. 666]

6 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

They scored 11 runs and barely won yesterday.

Yea it was almost exactly like the game in Moneyball.  There Oakland almost blew an 11-0 lead.  The only difference was they were on something like a 19 game winning streak and PIT was on a 10 game losing streak.  But that is just splitting hairs. 

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

I need them to win 8 of their next 22 before the AS Break.    Timmysmith is looking good. 

[joneo 529]

I need Pitt to play 1 game over .500 to All Star Break.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

9 hours ago, Bill E. said:

Yea it was almost exactly like the game in Moneyball.  There Oakland almost blew an 11-0 lead.  The only difference was they were on something like a 19 game winning streak and PIT was on a 10 game losing streak.  But that is just splitting hairs. 

You got me wanting to watch Moneyball again.

[Bill E. 666]

5 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

You got me wanting to watch Moneyball again.

Really good movie.  Better book.  They go way into detail about the statistics involved.  The movie did a better job on some of the characters like Billy and his sidekick Peter. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

3 hours ago, Bill E. said:

Really good movie.  Better book.  They go way into detail about the statistics involved.  The movie did a better job on some of the characters like Billy and his sidekick Peter. 

Great movie and don't read books much anymore cause can't see unless very bright light. I remember in the movie they got players that got on base more for cheap price. Great Idea and they came close but you got to have a few good pitchers and pay that price and think that is where they went wrong.

[Bill E. 666]

10 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Great movie and don't read books much anymore cause can't see unless very bright light. I remember in the movie they got players that got on base more for cheap price. Great Idea and they came close but you got to have a few good pitchers and pay that price and think that is where they went wrong.

Yep.  That was the idea of the book too.  The characters in the movie were more animated and it moved much faster.  The book went more into statistics and why managers used the system to evaluate players they did.  It also spoke in depth of the economist that came up with the theory that they subscribed to.  The movie mentioned it in passing saying BB was following a kook theory developed by a guy that swept floors.  The book talked over and over about the percent of time a certain situation would turn into a run, like a leadoff single.  In the book BB was really against stolen bases and sacrifices.  Then they would go through a bunch of statistics.

After I read it I bought the book for my father who likes to read and loves baseball but he did not like the book.  He said it was too slow.  Then I got him the movie and he loved it.  I worked as an accountant for like 15 years and have degrees in Accounting and Economics so I like numbers. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

3 hours ago, Bill E. said:

Yep.  That was the idea of the book too.  The characters in the movie were more animated and it moved much faster.  The book went more into statistics and why managers used the system to evaluate players they did.  It also spoke in depth of the economist that came up with the theory that they subscribed to.  The movie mentioned it in passing saying BB was following a kook theory developed by a guy that swept floors.  The book talked over and over about the percent of time a certain situation would turn into a run, like a leadoff single.  In the book BB was really against stolen bases and sacrifices.  Then they would go through a bunch of statistics.

After I read it I bought the book for my father who likes to read and loves baseball but he did not like the book.  He said it was too slow.  Then I got him the movie and he loved it.  I worked as an accountant for like 15 years and have degrees in Accounting and Economics so I like numbers. 

Thanks for explaining the book more Bill and my dad was a Accountant and he kinda figure out our fantasy football league the first year we got in it. Was a high point ppr league so when everyone was drafting rbs in the early rds he will go for the top wrs. I remember the others laughing at him cause he had no rbs on his team in rd 7. He went and drafted Larry Centers a round or two later. Centers went on to get him just about as many points that season as most of the early round rbs cause of his catches. They wasn't laughing anymore when we meant up after the season.

[Bill E. 666]

20 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Thanks for explaining the book more Bill and my dad was a Accountant and he kinda figure out our fantasy football league the first year we got in it. Was a high point ppr league so when everyone was drafting rbs in the early rds he will go for the top wrs. I remember the others laughing at him cause he had no rbs on his team in rd 7. He went and drafted Larry Centers a round or two later. Centers went on to get him just about as many points that season as most of the early round rbs cause of his catches. They wasn't laughing anymore when we meant up after the season.

If he likes numbers and baseball you should get him the book.  The other interesting fact is the same guy that wrote Moneyball wrote The Big Short which was the book/film about the traders that figured out the 2008 economic crash was coming and that bad mortgages were being packaged and rated as good.  I keep wanting to read that one but I have not.

One other thing I remember from the book is he thought a good closer was a joke.  He would plug in a good consistent reliever as the closer.  As long as the team stayed consistent they would win the game and the guy would get the save.  Suddenly he was considered a superstar and Billy would trade him for a guy he really wanted and get some money out of it.   then he would start to create the next superstar closer with another player from his bullpen.

 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

On 6/19/2021 at 10:06 AM, WhiteWonder said:

I need them to win 8 of their next 22 before the AS Break.    Timmysmith is looking good. 

  All according to plan. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

This team isn't much different than many Pirates teams of the past.  They have a few legit players, but all at inconvenient stages, and the rest of the 26-man roster is AAA caliber.

Offensively....

• Bryan Reynolds is an excellent player.  Hit over .310 in his rookie season with an .880 OPS.  This year, he's at .300 with a .900+ OPS.  He has 3 arbitration years left on his deal.
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has super star potential, and in his rookie season.  He and Reynolds could be one of the best 2/3 hitter combo's in baseball next year.

BUT....

• Adam Frazier (right now), is one of the best 2B and leadoff hitters in the league, but he's 29 years old and has 2 years left on his contract.  He'll likely be traded this year.
• Colin Moran started off hot and got hurt.  He's starting to rev up again and like Frazier, with only 2 years left and being an older player (29 at seasons end), could be traded this year.
• Jacob Stallings is a great defensive catcher and a mediocre hitter, but he's 31.  He's not a player that can be built around.
• Gregory Polanco is going to be 30 in September.  He's a guy that never reached the potential he was thought to have.  He has a $12.5M option next year or a $3M buyout.  I think they let him walk... or try to trade him.
• Kevin Newman is a great defensive SS, but he can't hit.  He'll be 28 soon, so it's not like he's going to turn things around.

Now, the top 4 in the lineup next year, with Frazier, Hayes, Reynolds, and Moran - if kept and continue on their current path, could be yield one of the better top half lineups in all of baseball. The problem is, the rest of the lineup is awful.  Stallings is the next best (after those 4), at hitting .230 & .714 OPS.  Stallings is an acceptable player, a catcher that is more than adequate to win with... but the rest of the hitters in the dugout all have WAR's under 0.2.  That means, of the 14 MLB hitters they have on the 26-man roster, 10 of them aren't even good enough to be replacement level (1.0), players.  They have 11 hitters (who's appeared in at least 1 game), have a negative WAR at this point in time.

Pitching... is even worse.

• JT Brubaker fortunately is looking like he could be what was expected.  Brubaker was projected to be a top of the rotation pitcher.  This is his first full season (had 9 starts last year), and he's definitely better this year than last year.  He's a much better pitcher overall.  As of right now, on a championship contending rotation, he's a #4 starter... possibly #3.  He's had his ups and downs, but I think next year, the Pirates will see him as their #1, but he'll really be a #2 in terms of stuff.  Nothing wrong with a legit #2 starter.  Sadly, he's the only one.
• A big positive for this team is their bullpen.  Richard Rodriguez is a great closer.  Chris Stratton, Kyle Crick, and Chasen Shreve are all excellent relievers.  David Bednar and Sam Howard are solid.  There's some nice young players that could prove to be valuable going forward with Duane Underwood Jr, (Bednar as mentioned), and Chase De Jong.

 

Now the depressing part...

• Mitch Keller got some time in 2019 and 2020 to get his feet wet.  He was expected to come in and lay claim to a rotation spot and set the ground work for what could be a promising career.  He projected to be a top of the rotation starter, but after 12 starts, he was optioned down to Triple-A (Friday), after posting a 3-7 record with a 7.04 ERA.  He just turned 25 to start the season and it looks like he's on pace pace to be a bust.
• Will Crowe was thought to be a mid-level to back-end starter.  Early results say reliever.
• Tyler Anderson is a nice pitcher, a #5 on a good team, but at 31, he has nothing really to add to the team other that eat innings.
• Chad Kuhl is a starter by default.  He's not a starter, but they don't have anyone else who can get outs for 4+ innings.
• Trevor Cahill was a guy they though could be an innings eater, but he hasn't even been that good.  He's on the IL at the moment.
• As mention, Rodriguez is a great close, but he's 31 years old.  He's more valuable to this team as a trade option than a pitcher.  I expect him to be traded in the next 5 to 6 weeks. Stratton is also over 30 and there's a chance he gets traded too.
• The rest of the bull pen (other than Underwood, Bednar, and De Jong are either over 30, past their prime, or roster fodder.

Simply, this team has only 6 guys who I can say are worthy of a MLB roster spot AND likely to be on this team next year... Hayes, Reynolds, Brubaker, Underwood, Bednar, and De Jong.  The rest are either trade bait like Frazier, Moran, Rodriguez, Stratton, & Crick... or guys who will likely be released of fighting for a Spring Invitation next year.

Believe it or not... next year could be worse.