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Doug's Rookie Profiles: TE Kyle Pitts

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We'll get a few more of theses posted as we head towards draft on 4/29.

QB Trevor Lawrence - 4/13/21
QB Zach Wilson - 4/14/21
QB Justin Fields - 4/19/21
QB Trey Lance - 4/20/21
QB Mac Jones - 4/21/21

RB Najee Harris - 4/22/21
RB Travis Etienne - 4/23/21
RB Javonte Williams - 4/25/21

WR Ja'Marr Chase - 4/26/21
WR DeVonta Smith - 4/27/21
WR Jaylen Waddle - 4/27/21
WR Rashod Bateman - 4/28/21

TE Kyle Pitts - 4/29/21
 

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No sure fire RB1 rookie RBs this draft it appears.

There was a nice string of big name rookies going early on with Zeke, Barkley, CMac, and Fournette, it made it easier to draft rookie RBs, but now we're back to them being wild cards.

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27 minutes ago, polecatt said:

No sure fire RB1 rookie RBs this draft it appears.

There was a nice string of big name rookies going early on with Zeke, Barkley, CMac, and Fournette, it made it easier to draft rookie RBs, but now we're back to them being wild cards.

Depends on who they get picked by.  Put Harris or Etienne in the right system with plenty of touches, and they’re probably solid RB2’s.  You’re right though, probably no sure fire 1’s.

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Speaking of Doug...............This just came across my timeline and FWIW I'd have an interest in reading any 14 tm league tips he may have. 

I play in a 14 tm Superflex and find the differences interesting.  I'd especially love to read Mr. Orth's notes, so I can confirm if I actually know what I think I know.

Anyway, not sure if its a full article idea but there is an audience for any takes FWIW.

 

 
 
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Replying to and
All kidding aside, I'm looking forward to Canton as well. I think last year taught me some things about playing in 14-teamers.
 
 

 

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6 hours ago, lesjroza said:

Speaking of Doug...............This just came across my timeline and FWIW I'd have an interest in reading any 14 tm league tips he may have. 

I play in a 14 tm Superflex and find the differences interesting.  I'd especially love to read Mr. Orth's notes, so I can confirm if I actually know what I think I know.

Anyway, not sure if its a full article idea but there is an audience for any takes FWIW.

 

 
 
-d_MBMku_x96.jpg
 
 
Replying to and
All kidding aside, I'm looking forward to Canton as well. I think last year taught me some things about playing in 14-teamers.
 
 

 

I've been found out.

Here's a quick summary of what I was thinking when I tweeted that about last year's experience (no Ks, no DST and three flex spots): I went Davante at 1.12 and Aaron Jones with my second pick in the snake draft. I had hoped to go RB, but as most "expert" drafts go, the RB flew off the board and were pretty much exhausted by the end of Round 2. However, while many of the owners wanted to get any RB with a heartbeat in Round 3, I just started stockpiling receiver after receiver. In a 14 teamer, my first eight picks were as follows:

Davante Adams

Aaron Jones

A.J. Brown

Calvin Ridley

Tyler Boyd

Tarik Cohen

Zack Moss

CeeDee Lamb

**** I picked up Herbert and Claypool off waivers early as well.

I never really found my RB2 (Cohen and Moss got hurt), but most teams that went RB heavy early couldn't compete with my flexes (typically Lamb, Claypool and Boyd).

My insight (esp. with so many flexes): get that RB1 if you find one you trust and pound 100-target WRs (which will be around until the sixth or seventh round in plenty of drafts) with your next four or five picks. It seems like there are only about 10 running backs who are mostly guaranteed heavy workloads every year and injuries seem to take about half of them from us at some point. Some might call that Zero RB or modified Zero RB, but I think it is more anti-fragility. It's becoming even more viable to wait on QB and I think the same can probably be said at TE after Kelce, Kittle and Waller come off the board.

I'm probably not sharing groundbreaking stuff here, but I'm still relatively new to 14-teamers, especially with that many flexes.

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1 hour ago, The Football Guru said:

My insight (esp. with so many flexes): get that RB1 if you find one you trust and pound 100-target WRs (which will be around until the sixth or seventh round in plenty of drafts) with your next four or five picks.

Yeah, but those next four or five picks weren't what gave you the edge; you said your edge was your flex WRs--featuring Lamb (8th round) and Claypool (waivers).

So really the best advice (for any league, really, but the larger the league, the more of an edge it provides) is to hit on your sleepers.

And the only reliable way to do that, of course, is to follow Axe Elf's lead.

(You're welcome for Lamb, by the way.)

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Yes, thank you Axe Elf so much for 'leading the way' and introducing everyone to Cee Dee Lamb, an obscure player who came from nowhere to finish as the # 33 ranked wr in half ppr by average points. Not only wouldn't have anyone here known about Cee Dee without you, but how could anyone have hoped to replicate his production with hard to get stalwarts like Marvin Jones, Dionte Johnson, Corey Davis, and Cole Beasley, who somehow fumbled their way to more avg points than mr. Lamb. Not to mention fellow rookies Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk, who were significantly ahead of Lamb in avg points. What would we do without your contributions!. Thanks Mr. Elf! 

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51 minutes ago, jrokh said:

What would we do without your contributions!

Probly continue to wallow helplessly in ignorance and confusion.

With Dak at the helm, Lamb was a top 12 WR, and even without him, the WR33 was still a strong flex option in a 14 team league.

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58 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Probly continue to wallow helplessly in ignorance and confusion.

With Dak at the helm, Lamb was a top 12 WR, and even without him, the WR33 was still a strong flex option in a 14 team league.

Who’s your obscure pick for this year, Jaylen Waddle?

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27 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Who’s your obscure pick for this year, Jaylen Waddle?

I probably should wait for the Bold Predictions thread, but since you axed...

My obscure pick for this year is Weepaws, to make a valid point.

It's a long shot to be sure, but Axe Elf never plays it safe.

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11 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, but those next four or five picks weren't what gave you the edge; you said your edge was your flex WRs--featuring Lamb (8th round) and Claypool (waivers).

So really the best advice (for any league, really, but the larger the league, the more of an edge it provides) is to hit on your sleepers.

And the only reliable way to do that, of course, is to follow Axe Elf's lead.

(You're welcome for Lamb, by the way.)

If we're being completely honest (hard for some of us, I know), what gave me the edge was everyone else in the draft room passing on NFL teams' clear WR1 (Brown, Ridley as soon as Julio got hurt, Boyd until Burrow got hurt, etc.). My team will win more often than it will lose if my WR4 (or Flex 1) is regularly outperforming half of the league's WR1 or WR2.

And thank you for the Lamb insight 🙄  I could not have possibly arrived at the conclusion that a first-round talent with great ball skills and lined up primarily in the slot was going to do well all on my own.

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3 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

If we're being completely honest (hard for some of us, I know), what gave me the edge was everyone else in the draft room passing on NFL teams' clear WR1 (Brown, Ridley as soon as Julio got hurt, Boyd until Burrow got hurt, etc.). My team will win more often than it will lose if my WR4 (or Flex 1) is regularly outperforming half of the league's WR1 or WR2.

And thank you for the Lamb insight 🙄  I could not have possibly arrived at the conclusion that a first-round talent with great ball skills and lined up primarily in the slot was going to do well all on my own.

Lol right. 

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8 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

And thank you for the Lamb insight 

Smiling faces holding aloft Championship trophies are all the thanks I need.

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I'm surprised on alot of the top WR prospects being so small and skinny. Outside of Chase and Bateman, they all seem so tiny. Even the guy's that are tall, just look like they have chicken legs to me.

 

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37 minutes ago, Kopy said:

I'm surprised on alot of the top WR prospects being so small and skinny. Outside of Chase and Bateman, they all seem so tiny. Even the guy's that are tall, just look like they have chicken legs to me.

 

If you want a more under the radar Big dude look up simi fehoko from Stanford. DK Metcalf clone...

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46 minutes ago, jrokh said:

If you want a more under the radar Big dude look up simi fehoko from Stanford. DK Metcalf clone...

Thanks, will do

 

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19 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Josh Palmer (Tennessee) isn't getting nearly enough buzz.

Nico Collins (Michigan) as well.

Palmer's probably not getting enough buzz because his college production was pedestrian (1 career 100 yard game). Plus he's Canadian. That being said the Senior Bowl director Nagy said he's not getting past day 2, so I'm sure NFL Teams must be buzzing about him. Nico Collins on the other hand is in many top 10 WR lists, despite his pedestrian college production, but he destroyed his pro day (Nico ran a 4.42 with a 37.5 vertical) and is 6'4 so plenty of buzz on him.

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My worry with Collins is that he's your "workout warrior". Looks great at everything he does, just doesn't do anything on the field.

 

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2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Palmer's probably not getting enough buzz because his college production was pedestrian (1 career 100 yard game). Plus he's Canadian. That being said the Senior Bowl director Nagy said he's not getting past day 2, so I'm sure NFL Teams must be buzzing about him. Nico Collins on the other hand is in many top 10 WR lists, despite his pedestrian college production, but he destroyed his pro day (Nico ran a 4.42 with a 37.5 vertical) and is 6'4 so plenty of buzz on him.

 

1 hour ago, Kopy said:

My worry with Collins is that he's your "workout warrior". Looks great at everything he does, just doesn't do anything on the field.

 

I haven't looked at any top 10 lists in the last month or so, so I can only go off the fact I rarely ever hear Collins mentioned when "experts" are talking about potential second-round picks. With that said, I was just coming up with names of bigger receivers in this draft with some upside. I haven't watched enough of Collins to know what I think of him yet. That comes next week.

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27 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

 

I haven't looked at any top 10 lists in the last month or so, so I can only go off the fact I rarely ever hear Collins mentioned when "experts" are talking about potential second-round picks. With that said, I was just coming up with names of bigger receivers in this draft with some upside. I haven't watched enough of Collins to know what I think of him yet. That comes next week.

I think you'll like most of what you see. Like most recent Michigan WR prospects the production is lacking, but how much of that is attributable to their subpar QB play. Peoples-Jones looked pretty good last year as a rookie in Cleveland, and he lasted till day 3. Nico is more polished and I would be shocked if he wasn't a Day 2 pick. Look forward to hearing your thoughts on him.

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Doug

You can call it the1 running back theory. After that whether you draft a rb2 or a flex you are taking the bpa available.

if you are following Talebs (anti fragile) advice you are taking low risk high reward wrs. Draft 5 u need two to hit after Adams.

plus Davante Adams and Justin Herbert won a lot of money for people last year. I certainly owe them a thank you.

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13 minutes ago, DrG said:

Doug

You can call it the1 running back theory. After that whether you draft a rb2 or a flex you are taking the bpa available.

if you are following Talebs (anti fragile) advice you are taking low risk high reward wrs. Draft 5 u need two to hit after Adams.

plus Davante Adams and Justin Herbert won a lot of money for people last year. I certainly owe them a thank you.

I suppose you could call it that, although I don't enter any draft with a plan I can't adjust on the fly.

At a certain point, it's a feel thing. For example, I think I had Mike Evans higher than AJB and Ridley at the time of the draft but decided to go with the other two. I desperately wanted to take RB at 3 and 4 too, but I couldn't pass on WRs with 80-90 catch upside that I could start in my flex spots every week when they kept falling in my lap.

I have found over the years that second-round RBs seem to disappoint a lot more often than they hit. Push that risk into the third or fourth round at the very least (after getting something close to a sure thing at WR or TE) seems to work much better. With RBs dropping like flies (some years), it only takes one fortunate waiver wire period to pick up a Myles Gaskin early or Kalen Ballage during the middle of the season.

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It definitely comes down to gut feel at points. I’m surprised Adams lasted to 12. Ppr, Jones is a rb1. you really had 2 first rd picks. First 15 players usually a cut above.  2020 I drafted last and went Adams Ekeler instead of Jones. Couldn’t believe Adams was there. Going wr/rb or rb/wr balances the rest of your draft.

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Thanks guru. As only a dynasty player now in my old age. You/this continues to be the best part (for me). Year after year, here at FTToday.

How hard was it for you to do your research because of covid? Short seasons for some, opt outs for others. I know for me, I really tuned out alot of this past college season. I'm playing catch up now. But I'm nowhere's near on top of things like I normally am.

How much did this affect you? And how much do you think it'll affect this class?

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5 hours ago, Kopy said:

Thanks guru. As only a dynasty player now in my old age. You/this continues to be the best part (for me). Year after year, here at FTToday.

How hard was it for you to do your research because of covid? Short seasons for some, opt outs for others. I know for me, I really tuned out alot of this past college season. I'm playing catch up now. But I'm nowhere's near on top of things like I normally am.

How much did this affect you? And how much do you think it'll affect this class?

I appreciate that a lot. Thanks.

To this point, it hasn't affected me a lot (yet) b/c I've done so many Alabama and Clemson guys. (My non-FFT schedule affected me more this year than COVID has so far if that tells you anything.) It will affect me a bit more over this final week when I absorb about wrap up my profiles and just watch 3-5 games on the next 20-30 guys. I'm seeing it a bit now working on Bateman. He looked slow last fall (he's obviously not) and Minnesota's offense didn't do him any favors, so I'm going to rely mostly on 2019 tape for him.  

As to how it will affect this class? I think we are in for some more bizarre draft-day decisions (analytic-based organizations vs. more film-dependent ones), but maybe no more than usual. I also think we have to expect the majority of opt-out guys will need a bit more time than maybe what we are used to in terms of their development. Then again, how much different is an opt-out than a player who was lost for the season with an injury in Week 1? I'd argue the former might be better.

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8 hours ago, Kopy said:

Thanks guru. As only a dynasty player now in my old age. You/this continues to be the best part (for me). Year after year, here at FTToday.

How hard was it for you to do your research because of covid? Short seasons for some, opt outs for others. I know for me, I really tuned out alot of this past college season. I'm playing catch up now. But I'm nowhere's near on top of things like I normally am.

How much did this affect you? And how much do you think it'll affect this class?

What a very nice post. 

 

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13 hours ago, Mike FF Today said:

Jumping into the RBs with Najee Harris.

Nice write-up. Agree with everything, definitely the real deal. Barring an atrocious landing spot. Should be #1 for rookie drafts.

 

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Out of curiosity. Where would you (anyone) rank Jerry Jeudy and Michael Pittman amongst this year's crop of Wr's?

 

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1 minute ago, Kopy said:

Out of curiosity. Where would you (anyone) rank Jerry Jeudy and Michael Pittman amongst this year's crop of Wr's?

 

I've actually been waiting for a question like this and it's one reason why I decided to change the format of my draft profiles this year.

Based on how I recall I viewed last year's top receivers pre-draft (highly unofficial, in other words):

Chase/D Smith/Jeudy/Lamb/Shenault/Jefferson/Pittman/Mims/Waddle/Bateman

It became obvious after a bit I did not see enough of Tee Higgins pre-draft. I stand by my belief that Aiyuk wasn't going to make an instant impact based on his ASU film. His talent was not in question, but his limitations (at that point) were obvious too. He was very fortunate to land in a Shanahan offense and also benefited from Samuel and Kittle missing significant time.

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I think Wentz and M Pittman are going to be a very  good matchup. 

 

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7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think Wentz and M Pittman are going to be a very matchup. 

I think you're very too.

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5 hours ago, Kopy said:

Out of curiosity. Where would you (anyone) rank Jerry Jeudy and Michael Pittman amongst this year's crop of Wr's?

 

For me it would be 1) Chase, 2) Devonta Smith, 3) Jeudy, 4) Waddle, 5) Claypool, 6)Pittman 

Edit: Cee Dee Lamb 3rd

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35 minutes ago, jrokh said:

For me it would be 1) Chase, 2) Devonta Smith, 3) Jeudy, 4) Waddle, 5) Claypool, 6)Pittman 

Edit: Cee Dee Lamb 3rd

I had Claypool bulking up to play TE, which is why he wasn't in my receiver ranks. (Still think to some degree that wouldn't be a bad idea ... LOL)

Outside of one game against Navy, I was not impressed with Claypool. The Steelers typically draft players that fit a certain profile for the position they are seeking. It led them to Martavis Bryant and Sammie Coates (and it was probably what they hoped Heyward-Bey was going to turn into) before Claypool.

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Lamb and Dak should be a very good matchup. M

im not should on judge Jeudy at this time, I’m not so sure he’ll be much better than last season imo. 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Lamb and Dak should be a very good matchup. M

im not should on judge Jeudy at this time, I’m not so sure he’ll be much better than last season imo. 

 

 

Hang in there on Jeudy, at least until we find out what Denver is doing at QB. I'm pretty sure Jeudy led the league in uncatchable targets or uncatchable target percentage. The guy is an elite route-runner. Those guys tend to fare well.

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30 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Hang in there on Jeudy, at least until we find out what Denver is doing at QB. I'm pretty sure Jeudy led the league in uncatchable targets or uncatchable target percentage. The guy is an elite route-runner. Those guys tend to fare well.

Thank you for that info, their Qb situation is one concern, more than Jeudy ability,  how about Sutton’s return? 

You think Jeudy is the Broncos wr1 over Sutton?

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