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GobbleDog

***The 147th Running of the Kentucky Derby***

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1) Known Agenda 6-1          8 ) Medina Spirit  15-1            15) Rock Your World 5-1

2) Like the King 50-1           9) Hot Rod Charlie 8-1            16) King Fury 20-1 Scratched

3) Brooklyn Strong 50-1    10) Midnight Bourbon 20-1     17) Highly Motivated 10-1

4) Keepmeinmind 50-1      11) Dynamic One 20-1             18) Super Stock 30-1

5) Sainthood 50-1              12) Helium 50-1                         19) Soup and Sandwich 30-1

6) O Besos 20-1                  13) Hidden Stash 50-1             20) Bourbonic 30-1

7) Mandaloun 15-1             14) Essential Quality 2-1   

 

Gentlemen, get your dollar bills ready...  :banana:

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Anyone been to this? Would love to go one year. Been to the Carolina Cup a few times and it’s always fun so I would assume this is as well 

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11 minutes ago, posty said:

Don't forget the big huge news for this one that ESPN is pushing...

Kendrick Carmouche to be first black jockey in Kentucky Derby since 2013

https://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/31350035/kendrick-carmouche-first-black-jockey-kentucky-derby-2013

That's a good reminder why I stopped watching that hack network years ago. 

Here's another one. Fock the 6 year old kid who got shot waiting for a happy meal. The drug pusher deserves attention. 

Kentucky Derby 2021: A year after Breonna Taylor's death, will there be protests?

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/breonna-taylor/2021/04/28/kentucky-derby-2021-breonna-taylor-shooting-racial-justice-protests/7212034002/

Fans weren't allowed inside Churchill Downs during the running of the 2020 Kentucky Derby, but outside, hundreds of people marched. There was a national militia group, the Not F***ing Around Coalition, which brandished heavy firearms while facing a line of fences and police cars. And there were local protesters and church leaders, who joined with the national organization Until Freedom to march from South Central Park to the racetrack.

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36 minutes ago, Djgb13 said:

Anyone been to this? Would love to go one year. Been to the Carolina Cup a few times and it’s always fun so I would assume this is as well 

I'm not that into horse racing and neither is wife, but the Derby has become a holiday... throw a party with friends, wear hats, and bet squares. Attending the Kentucky Derby is on our bucket list.  Probably about 10+- years from now...

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32 minutes ago, posty said:

Don't forget the big huge news for this one that ESPN is pushing...

Kendrick Carmouche to be first black jockey in Kentucky Derby since 2013

https://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/31350035/kendrick-carmouche-first-black-jockey-kentucky-derby-2013

He ran an amazing race in the Wood Memorial race pulling off the 72-1 upset with an incredible finish.

But Bourbonic has next to zero chance of winning the Derby.  Surprised the media would care about a black jockey... it's been done. Lots of times - modern times and old.

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23 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I'm not that into horse racing and neither is wife, but the Derby has become a holiday... throw a party with friends, wear hats, and bet squares. Attending the Kentucky Derby is on our bucket list.  Probably about 10+- years from now...

That’s how I am. I like to bet a little on the races (under $10 per race) and drink. Carolina cup is like a holiday event down here. People dress up, tailgate, drink, and have a good time. It’s always fun. Going to the Derby is on ours as well just like going to a SB and World Series game. Already been to an NBA championship game. I’ve been there when I went to play baseball but it wasn’t during the derby. Still remember the cute girl in the gift shop looked EXACTLY like Lindsay Lohan and we all thought she was hot. 

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9 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

He ran an amazing race in the Wood Memorial race pulling off the 72-1 upset with an incredible finish.

But Bourbonic has next to zero chance of winning the Derby.  Surprised the media would care about a black jockey... it's been done. Lots of times - modern times and old.

It's espn, so....

The Derby got me wondering about when the Arlington Million runs, as I have been to that before, but I just found out they are closing up the Arlington Park Race Track this year.  Damn sad. I haven't been to the tracks in Chicago or outlying areas since I lived there some years ago but it looks like, Maywood Park, Sportsman Park and Balmoral are all gone there too. I spent a bunch of fun times at Maywood Park and some at Arlington as well. 

THE ARLINGTON PARK CLOSURE IS PERILOUS FOR THE ENTIRE AMERICAN RACING ENTERPRISE

 

Arlington Park is one of the most modern and attractive racetracks anywhere.  Despite its 93-year history in the Chicago, Illinois suburb of Arlington Heights, the track, rebuilt in 1985 after a fire, will be closing permanently after the 2021 meet ends on September 25.

Churchill Downs, Inc. released the following statement:

“Arlington’s ideal location in Chicago’s northwest suburbs, together with direct access to downtown Chicago via an on-site Metra rail station, presents a unique redevelopment opportunity.  We expect to see robust interest in the site and look forward to working with potential buyers.”

...

Gone from the greater Chicago area are Sportsman Park and harness tracks Maywood and Balmoral.  With the Arlington Park closure, only Hawthorne will be left.

http://www.horseracingbusiness.com/the-arlington-park-closure-is-perilous-for-the-entire-american-racing-enterprise-25105.htm

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1 hour ago, Djgb13 said:

Anyone been to this? Would love to go one year. Been to the Carolina Cup a few times and it’s always fun so I would assume this is as well 

I've been to the Preakness and Belmont a few times, since they're not all that far away.  Never been to Kentucky though.  That said, the trip was somewhat wasted on me.  I only went to hang out with the guys... I don't following horse racing.

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I like Soup And Sandwich as a flier.

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I'm still looking at the Kentucky Oaks. I think there will be money to be had in that race. Of course, I haven't looked at the Derby that much honestly.

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27 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I've been to the Preakness and Belmont a few times, since they're not all that far away.  Never been to Kentucky though.  That said, the trip was somewhat wasted on me.  I only went to hang out with the guys... I don't following horse racing.

We went when we had our national championship there one year. Also got to go to the Louisville slugger place. Got custom bats made and got some failed bats that were for Derek Jeter 

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Time to get down to capping.  Horses with virtually no chance of winning:

2) Like the King 50-1  Turf horse with two worst races per speed coming off dirt. Trainer Ward has never has made it to Kentucky Derby.      

3) Brooklyn Strong 50-1   Raced once as a 3 y.o. and finished 5th in Wood Memorial with mediocre talent.

4) Keepmeinmind 50-1 Finished off the board in two starts as a 3-year-old and speed numbers show sharp decline over the year.

5) Sainthood 50-1  Apollo curse (no race as 2-y.o) broken only once in 138 years.  Finished 2nd in pathetic Grade 3 Ruby Steaks. 

12) Helium 50-1 Eight-week layoff since the Tampa Derby. No horse has won Kentucky after a seven+ week layoff since 1929. Only three won the Derby with just 3 previous starts.

13) Hidden Stash 50-1  Never won a true stakes race and speed numbers show he's totally outclassed. No female trainer has ever won the Derby.

16) King Fury 20-1 In three graded stakes against top competition as a 2 y.o., Fury finished 5th, 7th, and 8th, before winning a Grade 3 stakes race and qualifying for Derby

18) Super Stock 30-1 Got a perfect trip in Arkansas, with speedsters doing the work up front before fading. Not likely to get that set-up in the Derby.

20) Bourbonic 30-1 Won the Wood Memorial as a 72:1 longshot (track record), but it was an incredibly slow race with mediocre talent. No black jockey has won since 1884.

...........................................

That leaves 11   :huh:

ETA - If I had to pick a horse to hit the board (2nd or 3rd) from that group of future glue-sticks, I'd pick Helium or Super Stock who won their last races.

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My prediction... that Hot Rod Charlie... morning line 8-1 (4th choice) will be bet down to 2nd choice behind favorite Essential quality and be at about 7-2 as post time nears.

 

1.) Hot Rod Charlie
2.) Essential Quality
3.) Known Agenda
4.) King Fury

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10 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

My prediction... that Hot Rod Charlie... morning line 8-1 (4th choice) will be bet down to 2nd choice behind favorite Essential quality and be at about 7-2 as post time nears.

 

1.) Hot Rod Charlie
2.) Essential Quality
3.) Known Agenda
4.) King Fury

Rock Your World is an interesting horse to keep an eye on.

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15 hours ago, Djgb13 said:

We went when we had our national championship there one year. Also got to go to the Louisville slugger place. Got custom bats made and got some failed bats that were for Derek Jeter 

That's cool.  I'd like to go there one day.

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My last 6 Kentucky Derby picks:

2020 - Whittled field down to Authentic and Honor A.P.   I went with Honor A.P. who finished 4th.  Authentic finished 1st. Damn.

2019 - Picked Maximum Security... and he won!!!!  Five minutes later he was DQ'd for bumping. The only DQ in 145 years of Derby history. Why does the universe hate me?

2018 - Whittled field down to Good Magic and Bolt D' Oro. Went with Bolt D' Oro who finished 12th. Good Magic finished 2nd.  Justify won breaking the 136 y.o. Apollo curse.

2017 - Picked Always Dreaming... and he won!!! 

2016 - Picked Exaggerator.... and he finished 2nd. Close.

2015 - Whittled field down to Dortmund and Firing Line.  I went with Dortmund who finished 3rd. Firing Line finished 2nd.

 

I'm hot... sort of.   :mellow:

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's cool.  I'd like to go there one day.

It was pretty cool man. Highly suggest if you’re in Louisville to check it out :thumbsup: 

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32 minutes ago, Djgb13 said:

It was pretty cool man. Highly suggest if you’re in Louisville to check it out :thumbsup: 

I will, thanks for the tip.

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Ok, let's do this. Same qualifiers as always - Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Eliminate horses not bred in the great state of Kentucky. 

Santa Anita Derby

1. Rock Your World

2. Medina Spirit - Born in Florida

Arkansas Derby

1. Super Stock

2. Caddo River - Not in Derby

Blue Grass

1. Essential Quality

2. Highly Motivated

Florida Derby

1. Known Agenda

2. Soup and Sandwich - Born in Florida

Wood Memorial

1. Bourbonic

2. Dynamic One

.........................................................................

Seven horses left.  Time to eliminate the glue.

Bourbonic (30-1) ... There's a good reason this nag was 72-1 in Wood Memorial and the reason is the horse sucks donkey dong.  Good luck repeating that effort.

Super Stock (50-1) ... Arkansas Derby winners have gone on to win only 3 Derbys, the last being American Pharoah in 2015.  Super Stock ain't in that league. A ridiculously fast pace is the only reason he won that race.

........................................................................

Five left. Time for some guess work.

Dynamic One (20-1) ... Took 4 races to finally break his maiden. After that, he took 2nd in the (grade 2) Wood Memorial at 12-1 odds. Doesn't look like a Derby winner resume.

Rock Your World (5-1) ... Hello Apollo curse, only 1 horse has won without racing as a 2 y.o. in 138 years - Justify in 2018.  Won the prestigious Santa Anita Derby pretty much wire to wire, but unlikely to get such an easy trip in the Derby.  The lack of experience is gonna hurt this horse when he gets dirt in his face and bumped around.

Essential Quality (2-1) ... What can ya say about this horse. 5 races, 5 wins. Great speed and a deserving favorite. But I don't bet favorites. Besides, the last Blue Grass winner to take the Derby.... 1991 (strike the gold) which was later euthanized at the Belmont. The racing gods apparently don't like Blue Grass winners.

........................................................................

Two left.  God help me.

Highly Motivated (10-1) ... has never won a stakes race finishing 2nd at the Blue Grass and 3rd at Gotham.  The jockey (Castellano) is 0-14 at the Derby with his best being 3rd place in 2018. Not a bad horse, has respectable speed, and a good post position.  Might hit the place or show, but a win.... meh. 

........................................................................

Therefore, by scientific process of elimination, the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby will be:

Known Agenda  (6-1) ... Florida Derby winners do well at Kentucky winning 7 of the last 20 races (and yes I'm counting dq'd Maximum Security). And what a Florida Derby this horse ran.... dirt in his face the whole way, bumped around, only to find the lead down the final stretch. Same conditions as the crowded Derby. The horse is a bit of a late bloomer finishing 3rd and 5th in first two stakes races.  The trainer is Todd Pletcher who knows a thing or two about winning Derbys.  He's also the son of Curlin (good dna for winning long races). The only knock on this horse is the damn no. 1 post position, which hasn't won since 1986.  However, this was mainly attributed to the old starting gates which had post 1 running directly into the rail.  Last year, the Derby introduced a new starting gate which supposedly eliminates that problem. 

Longshot...  Dynamic One. Looked decent in that Wood race. Good post position. Trained by Pletcher. 20-1 odds.

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Threw 20 on Maudolin and 10 on highly motivated.  Have Essential Quality in the bar pool.  

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1 hour ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Threw 20 on Maudolin and 10 on highly motivated.  Have Essential Quality in the bar pool.  

I've read Mandoloun has been looking sharp this week in morning workouts.  

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On 4/29/2021 at 7:40 AM, tubby_mcgee said:

My prediction... that Hot Rod Charlie... morning line 8-1 (4th choice) will be bet down to 2nd choice behind favorite Essential quality and be at about 7-2 as post time nears.

 

1.) Hot Rod Charlie
2.) Essential Quality
3.) Known Agenda
4.) King Fury

Fury is out.

 

1.) Hot Rod Charlie

2.) Essential Quality

3.) Known Agenda

4.) Highly Motivated

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$100 bucks on Midnight Bourbon to win.

🏇

 

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24 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

I've read Mandoloun has been looking sharp this week in morning workouts.  

Nice

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I live less then 2 miles from Belmont (Future home to my Islanders :banana:) and I have never been to Stakes. Been there hundreds of times but went there for Father’s Day years ago and THAT was too crowded for me - can’t imagine Stakes Day. 

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Dynamic One odds increased to 39-1.?. Bad workouts maybe? Weird. He’s a much better horse than that.

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It's late but the #8 Medina Spirit has been popping up on several horse racing boards.

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5 minutes ago, BufordT said:

It's late but the #8 Medina Spirit has been popping up on several horse racing boards.

That’s where I dropped 10X

Used it in a few trips

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5 minutes ago, BufordT said:

It's late but the #8 Medina Spirit has been popping up on several horse racing boards.

Last year, all the experts on tv picked wrong.

My friend who picked the winner last year, says Medina Spirit. 

 

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2 minutes ago, BiPolarBear said:

Last year, all the experts on tv picked wrong.

My friend who picked the winner last year, says Medina Spirit. 

 

My bets are in unfortunately(hopefully fortunately) I don't have MS anywhere

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27 minutes ago, BiPolarBear said:

Last year, all the experts on tv picked wrong.

My friend who picked the winner last year, says Medina Spirit. 

 

Dudes on fire

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I should have listened to this:

34 minutes ago, BufordT said:

It's late but the #8 Medina Spirit has been popping up on several horse racing boards.

 

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58 minutes ago, Mike Isles said:

That’s where I dropped 10X

Used it in a few trips

Whoo hoo. 
Won the race not the trips. 
 

Can’t bet against Bob and John V combination 

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1 hour ago, BiPolarBear said:

Last year, all the experts on tv picked wrong.

My friend who picked the winner last year, says Medina Spirit. 

 

Remind us next year what your friend says about that race 

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Just now, Djgb13 said:

Remind us next year what your friend says about that race 

I can tell you right now, for five bucks. 😎

  • Haha 1

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