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Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Trey Lance, 49ers

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1.03 - QB Trey Lance, 49ers

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Team Fit: HC Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch made the bold move to trade two future firsts (in addition to this year's pick) to get the quarterback of the future, not for 2021. Despite his relative inexperience and the fact he didn't play at the FBS level, Lance is probably the right choice if only because he gives San Francisco something more than what it has now in Jimmy Garoppolo. Frankly, the idea of putting a quarterback capable of rushing for 600-plus yards and 8-10 touchdowns in the same offense as some of the best run-after-catch threats in the NFL in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk is frightening. Cut from the same cloth as Steve McNair and Dak Prescott, Lance is incredibly football-smart (made his own line calls as a redshirt freshman) and values the football like few others (one interception across 17 college starts).

What does it mean in redraft? Superflex bench depth (for now). The 49ers obviously have a great supporting cast in place, but Shanahan is highly unlikely to put Lance into the lineup when he is so raw and making such a big jump in competition. This pick was made with 2022 and beyond in mind. However, his dual-threat ability makes him a real threat for low-end QB1 value right away if Garoppolo gets hurt or misses time.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

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So glad the pick was Lance and not Jones. I think they envisioned him as possible Mahomes-esque. Of course his running skills are better than Mahomes. Yes, he won't see the field unless Garoppolo  gets injured and even then he may not if they keep Mullens. Surely raw in nfl terms but Shanahan can make him an elite QB. 

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7 hours ago, DocNiner said:

So glad the pick was Lance and not Jones. I think they envisioned him as possible Mahomes-esque. Of course his running skills are better than Mahomes. Yes, he won't see the field unless Garoppolo  gets injured and even then he may not if they keep Mullens. Surely raw in nfl terms but Shanahan can make him an elite QB. 

Or if garoppalo starts losing games. We all know how this goes, the starter is on a short leash when the high pick with fast legs is waiting in the wings. 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I never watched NDSU... how is Lance and better/different than RG3?

Very short summary ...

Lance is bigger for sure, but not quite as fast. Much more cerebral (made his own line calls as a redshirt freshman) and worked out of a traditional offense as opposed to the true spread RG3 worked out of at Baylor. As runners, Griffin needed to avoid tacklers to create a big play with his feet. Lance can run by or truck a DB if he wants.

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10 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Very short summary ...

Lance is bigger for sure, but not quite as fast. Much more cerebral (made his own line calls as a redshirt freshman) and worked out of a traditional offense as opposed to the true spread RG3 worked out of at Baylor. As runners, Griffin needed to avoid tacklers to create a big play with his feet. Lance can run by or truck a DB if he wants.

Solid, thanks!

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On 4/30/2021 at 1:39 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

I never watched NDSU... how is Lance and better/different than RG3?

Hopefully he realizes he needs to slide instead of diving head first towards Haloti N'Gata

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5 hours ago, polecatt said:

Hopefully he realizes he needs to slide instead of diving head first towards Haloti N'Gata

I would argue all QB's should slide in this situation unless its a game saving move in a playoff game.   Thats the kind of collision that gives coaches PTSD.

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On 4/30/2021 at 10:27 AM, tanatastic said:

Or if garoppalo starts losing games. We all know how this goes, the starter is on a short leash when the high pick with fast legs is waiting in the wings. 

Garropalo doesn’t lose. He just gets hurt. But when he plays the niners have been nearly unbeatable. Well except in the super bowl

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2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Garropalo doesn’t lose. He just gets hurt. But when he plays the niners have been nearly unbeatable. Well except in the super bowl

Agreed.  

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While it might be best for Lance to sit a year and learn from Jimmy G but Garoppolo  has missed almost half his games since he's been in San Fran. That said is he a 50/50 chance he gets injured again and can't play? If that be the case should the 49ers start looking for a trade partner now? If he suffers any significant injury it'll surely be harder to trade him. I think if a team comes calling about him during training camp because of QB injury on their team they should seriously consider talking to them. I'm just.a little tentative  about him being able to play a full season injury free. I'd rather they look to move him now while he's relatively healthy and trust that the coaching staff can put Lance in a.good situation to succeed.

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2 hours ago, DocNiner said:

While it might be best for Lance to sit a year and learn from Jimmy G but Garoppolo  has missed almost half his games since he's been in San Fran. That said is he a 50/50 chance he gets injured again and can't play? If that be the case should the 49ers start looking for a trade partner now? If he suffers any significant injury it'll surely be harder to trade him. I think if a team comes calling about him during training camp because of QB injury on their team they should seriously consider talking to them. I'm just.a little tentative  about him being able to play a full season injury free. I'd rather they look to move him now while he's relatively healthy and trust that the coaching staff can put Lance in a.good situation to succeed.

There are times when getting a good return for a player isnt the top priority.

They need to develop Lance.   so Keeping Garoppollo for even part of a season so Lance can learn from him is likely worth any loss in draft capital they stand to lose by holding him.  Once they are done with Garoppollo he will be moved (or if someone offers a price they cannot refuse)

I am not a fan, but Garoppolos record when he is healthy is pretty good.   I am reminded of Stafford who was injury prone his first couple of seasons and then became a model of durability.

assuming Garoppolo starts and remains healthy, they get far more for him if unloading him.   This in itself isnt a reason to keep him. 

Lance is deemed to be a bit of a raw talent who needs development before hes ready for the show.  a good Mentor is part of this development (in my opinion)

the 49'ers are not hurting themselves by holding Garoppollo unless his dissatisfaction with the situation leads to a problem in the dressing room.  I am not privy to what goes on behind closed doors in San Fran, but if Garoppolo is smart he remains professional, puts up a great season and moves on to a team that actually wants him.

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Jimmy G will be their starter until he’s not.  

My personal Niners qb issue prediction. 

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On 5/7/2021 at 8:07 AM, DocNiner said:

While it might be best for Lance to sit a year and learn from Jimmy G but Garoppolo  has missed almost half his games since he's been in San Fran. That said is he a 50/50 chance he gets injured again and can't play? If that be the case should the 49ers start looking for a trade partner now? If he suffers any significant injury it'll surely be harder to trade him. I think if a team comes calling about him during training camp because of QB injury on their team they should seriously consider talking to them. I'm just.a little tentative  about him being able to play a full season injury free. I'd rather they look to move him now while he's relatively healthy and trust that the coaching staff can put Lance in a.good situation to succeed.

The Niners think they can win now. No team has ever won with a rookie QB, especially one than played a handful of games against minor competition. Garropalo is the plan for this year, period.

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