Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Trey Lance, 49ers

[The Football Guru 211]

1.03 - QB Trey Lance, 49ers

Draft Profile

Team Fit: HC Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch made the bold move to trade two future firsts (in addition to this year's pick) to get the quarterback of the future, not for 2021. Despite his relative inexperience and the fact he didn't play at the FBS level, Lance is probably the right choice if only because he gives San Francisco something more than what it has now in Jimmy Garoppolo. Frankly, the idea of putting a quarterback capable of rushing for 600-plus yards and 8-10 touchdowns in the same offense as some of the best run-after-catch threats in the NFL in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk is frightening. Cut from the same cloth as Steve McNair and Dak Prescott, Lance is incredibly football-smart (made his own line calls as a redshirt freshman) and values the football like few others (one interception across 17 college starts).

What does it mean in redraft? Superflex bench depth (for now). The 49ers obviously have a great supporting cast in place, but Shanahan is highly unlikely to put Lance into the lineup when he is so raw and making such a big jump in competition. This pick was made with 2022 and beyond in mind. However, his dual-threat ability makes him a real threat for low-end QB1 value right away if Garoppolo gets hurt or misses time.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[DocNiner 44]

So glad the pick was Lance and not Jones. I think they envisioned him as possible Mahomes-esque. Of course his running skills are better than Mahomes. Yes, he won't see the field unless Garoppolo  gets injured and even then he may not if they keep Mullens. Surely raw in nfl terms but Shanahan can make him an elite QB. 

[tanatastic 2,061]

7 hours ago, DocNiner said:

So glad the pick was Lance and not Jones. I think they envisioned him as possible Mahomes-esque. Of course his running skills are better than Mahomes. Yes, he won't see the field unless Garoppolo  gets injured and even then he may not if they keep Mullens. Surely raw in nfl terms but Shanahan can make him an elite QB. 

Or if garoppalo starts losing games. We all know how this goes, the starter is on a short leash when the high pick with fast legs is waiting in the wings. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

I never watched NDSU... how is Lance and better/different than RG3?

[The Football Guru 211]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I never watched NDSU... how is Lance and better/different than RG3?

Very short summary ...

Lance is bigger for sure, but not quite as fast. Much more cerebral (made his own line calls as a redshirt freshman) and worked out of a traditional offense as opposed to the true spread RG3 worked out of at Baylor. As runners, Griffin needed to avoid tacklers to create a big play with his feet. Lance can run by or truck a DB if he wants.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

10 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Very short summary ...

Lance is bigger for sure, but not quite as fast. Much more cerebral (made his own line calls as a redshirt freshman) and worked out of a traditional offense as opposed to the true spread RG3 worked out of at Baylor. As runners, Griffin needed to avoid tacklers to create a big play with his feet. Lance can run by or truck a DB if he wants.

Solid, thanks!

[polecatt 401]

On 4/30/2021 at 1:39 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

I never watched NDSU... how is Lance and better/different than RG3?

Hopefully he realizes he needs to slide instead of diving head first towards Haloti N'Gata

[Ray_T 588]

5 hours ago, polecatt said:

Hopefully he realizes he needs to slide instead of diving head first towards Haloti N'Gata

I would argue all QB's should slide in this situation unless its a game saving move in a playoff game.   Thats the kind of collision that gives coaches PTSD.

[IGotWorms 3,309]

On 4/30/2021 at 10:27 AM, tanatastic said:

Or if garoppalo starts losing games. We all know how this goes, the starter is on a short leash when the high pick with fast legs is waiting in the wings. 

Garropalo doesn’t lose. He just gets hurt. But when he plays the niners have been nearly unbeatable. Well except in the super bowl

[weepaws 2,456]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Garropalo doesn’t lose. He just gets hurt. But when he plays the niners have been nearly unbeatable. Well except in the super bowl

Agreed.  

[DocNiner 44]

While it might be best for Lance to sit a year and learn from Jimmy G but Garoppolo  has missed almost half his games since he's been in San Fran. That said is he a 50/50 chance he gets injured again and can't play? If that be the case should the 49ers start looking for a trade partner now? If he suffers any significant injury it'll surely be harder to trade him. I think if a team comes calling about him during training camp because of QB injury on their team they should seriously consider talking to them. I'm just.a little tentative  about him being able to play a full season injury free. I'd rather they look to move him now while he's relatively healthy and trust that the coaching staff can put Lance in a.good situation to succeed.

[Ray_T 588]

2 hours ago, DocNiner said:

While it might be best for Lance to sit a year and learn from Jimmy G but Garoppolo  has missed almost half his games since he's been in San Fran. That said is he a 50/50 chance he gets injured again and can't play? If that be the case should the 49ers start looking for a trade partner now? If he suffers any significant injury it'll surely be harder to trade him. I think if a team comes calling about him during training camp because of QB injury on their team they should seriously consider talking to them. I'm just.a little tentative  about him being able to play a full season injury free. I'd rather they look to move him now while he's relatively healthy and trust that the coaching staff can put Lance in a.good situation to succeed.

There are times when getting a good return for a player isnt the top priority.

They need to develop Lance.   so Keeping Garoppollo for even part of a season so Lance can learn from him is likely worth any loss in draft capital they stand to lose by holding him.  Once they are done with Garoppollo he will be moved (or if someone offers a price they cannot refuse)

I am not a fan, but Garoppolos record when he is healthy is pretty good.   I am reminded of Stafford who was injury prone his first couple of seasons and then became a model of durability.

assuming Garoppolo starts and remains healthy, they get far more for him if unloading him.   This in itself isnt a reason to keep him. 

Lance is deemed to be a bit of a raw talent who needs development before hes ready for the show.  a good Mentor is part of this development (in my opinion)

the 49'ers are not hurting themselves by holding Garoppollo unless his dissatisfaction with the situation leads to a problem in the dressing room.  I am not privy to what goes on behind closed doors in San Fran, but if Garoppolo is smart he remains professional, puts up a great season and moves on to a team that actually wants him.

[weepaws 2,456]

Jimmy G will be their starter until he’s not.  

My personal Niners qb issue prediction. 

[IGotWorms 3,309]

On 5/7/2021 at 8:07 AM, DocNiner said:

While it might be best for Lance to sit a year and learn from Jimmy G but Garoppolo  has missed almost half his games since he's been in San Fran. That said is he a 50/50 chance he gets injured again and can't play? If that be the case should the 49ers start looking for a trade partner now? If he suffers any significant injury it'll surely be harder to trade him. I think if a team comes calling about him during training camp because of QB injury on their team they should seriously consider talking to them. I'm just.a little tentative  about him being able to play a full season injury free. I'd rather they look to move him now while he's relatively healthy and trust that the coaching staff can put Lance in a.good situation to succeed.

The Niners think they can win now. No team has ever won with a rookie QB, especially one than played a handful of games against minor competition. Garropalo is the plan for this year, period.

[tanatastic 2,061]

So this kid is getting serious buzz early on and people are thinking he’s going to be really good. I’m starting to see a situation where he takes over and has a breakout season as more likely.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

28 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

So this kid is getting serious buzz early on and people are thinking he’s going to be really good. I’m starting to see a situation where he takes over and has a breakout season as more likely.

Depends on Garoppolo's performance.  The Niners start of with 2 easy wins in Detroit and Philly.  Yeah, their next 3 are kinda tough with Green Bay, Seattle, and Arizona, but the first two are home games and Seattle's defense isn't all that intimidating.  Arizona seems to be people's favorite, but I'm not convinced.  Yeah, Murray is playing well and they got D-Hop, but their RB's suck and the rest of the receiving corp is "meh".  I can see them being a 9-8 team.  San Fran may go into their bye week 5-0.  Maybe 4-1.  After that, they have the Colts, the Bears, and Cardinals again.  They may be 7-1 heading into the Rams game in Week 10.  Where do you envision Lance over taking Garoppolo in that instance?

The only way Lance see's the field is if Garoppolo gets hurt again.  It certainly won't be because he totally stinks.  I don't see that happening as he's never stunk in his 32 starts.  I mean, the guy is 24-8.  He's completed over 67% of his passes and just went to a Super Bowl 2 years ago.

[tanatastic 2,061]

50 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Depends on Garoppolo's performance.  The Niners start of with 2 easy wins in Detroit and Philly.  Yeah, their next 3 are kinda tough with Green Bay, Seattle, and Arizona, but the first two are home games and Seattle's defense isn't all that intimidating.  Arizona seems to be people's favorite, but I'm not convinced.  Yeah, Murray is playing well and they got D-Hop, but their RB's suck and the rest of the receiving corp is "meh".  I can see them being a 9-8 team.  San Fran may go into their bye week 5-0.  Maybe 4-1.  After that, they have the Colts, the Bears, and Cardinals again.  They may be 7-1 heading into the Rams game in Week 10.  Where do you envision Lance over taking Garoppolo in that instance?

The only way Lance see's the field is if Garoppolo gets hurt again.  It certainly won't be because he totally stinks.  I don't see that happening as he's never stunk in his 32 starts.  I mean, the guy is 24-8.  He's completed over 67% of his passes and just went to a Super Bowl 2 years ago.

True, opportunity would have to knock. I’m starting to think Aiyuk may be underrated.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

2 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

I’m starting to think Aiyuk may be underrated.

Agreed.  Even without Jimmy G last year, he put up strong numbers for a rookie.

[DocNiner 44]

Yes Aiyuk.is underrated. Whoever's at QB the 2nd year receiver will put up decent numbers.

[AxeElf 787]

16 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

True, opportunity would have to knock. I’m starting to think Aiyuk may be underrated.

If you don't have him ranked among the top 15 WRs, you have him underrated.

[weepaws 2,456]

He was 12 in non ppr avg per game, I think he falls down from there,  I see at least 6-7 wr names like Lamb, and Woods and Mclaurin just to name three that will surpass him this season on avg points per game,   It’s not going to be tough to play Qb for the Niners , might be the easiest Qb jov West of Baltimore, all you need to do is hand the ball to the Rbs.  

Niners are going to run a lot, and hard to see Aiyuk having 8 targets a game with a target hound like Kittle back, and D Samuel also.  

I have him below the top 15, and it’s easy to see why.  

Thanks. 

[DrG 94]

On 4/30/2021 at 11:49 AM, The Football Guru said:

Very short summary ...

Lance is bigger for sure, but not quite as fast. Much more cerebral (made his own line calls as a redshirt freshman) and worked out of a traditional offense as opposed to the true spread RG3 worked out of at Baylor. As runners, Griffin needed to avoid tacklers to create a big play with his feet. Lance can run by or truck a DB if he wants.

One of the 9ersbeat writers has said he’s the best rookie he’s ever seen. Time will tell but he may be a future star.

[polecatt 401]

8 hours ago, DrG said:

One of the 9ersbeat writers has said he’s the best rookie he’s ever seen. Time will tell but he may be a future star.

There's certainly a reason they traded up for him.

I think he's still kind of an enigma but the talent is clearly there.

[DrG 94]

He will see the field in limited duty early. Shanahan has already said that. Jimmy G is going to be Alex Smith’d and the only question is how soon.

 

[AxeElf 787]

On 8/5/2021 at 1:56 PM, AxeElf said:

If you don't have him ranked among the top 15 WRs, you have him underrated.

Get used to seeing this...

https://twitter.com/Thesfniners_/status/1424070466482839552

[IGotWorms 3,309]

8 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Get used to seeing this...

https://twitter.com/Thesfniners_/status/1424070466482839552

So?  That was just piss poor defense.

I ain’t buying the hype. Not this year. Talk to me in 2022.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

I ain’t buying the hype. Not this year. Talk to me in 2022.

I'm not sure what you don't like.  Aiyuk was a first-round pick in a strong class of WRs that the 49ers traded up to get.  As a rookie, in the absence of a preseason, with precious little practice, with 3 different QBs throwing him the ball, and with opposing defenses keying on him in the absence of Kittle and Deebo, Aiyuk put up a string of 7 straight games in which he either scored or gained 100+ yards.  You don't get that kind of consistency from even the veteran WRs.  Now he's got a year of experience and a full offseason with more consistent quarterbacking, and other targets returning for opposing defenses to be concerned with.

The only thing I'll be telling you in 2022 is "toldja."

[IGotWorms 3,309]

49 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I'm not sure what you don't like.  Aiyuk was a first-round pick in a strong class of WRs that the 49ers traded up to get.  As a rookie, in the absence of a preseason, with precious little practice, with 3 different QBs throwing him the ball, and with opposing defenses keying on him in the absence of Kittle and Deebo, Aiyuk put up a string of 7 straight games in which he either scored or gained 100+ yards.  You don't get that kind of consistency from even the veteran WRs.  Now he's got a year of experience and a full offseason with more consistent quarterbacking, and other targets returning for opposing defenses to be concerned with.

The only thing I'll be telling you in 2022 is "toldja."

My bad, I totally misread your comment as being in relation to Lance

Agree on Aiyuk

[AxeElf 787]

55 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

My bad, I totally misread your comment as being in relation to Lance

Agree on Aiyuk

And I agree on Lance; don't think he's ready to start this year.

[weepaws 2,456]

And the two of them lived happily ever after. 

Awwww.  

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

I’m in on both players. Aiyuk is a big target of mine but I don’t think he makes it to the end of the 5th. Lance is a great stash if you are type to draft a 2nd QB.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

I’m in on both players. Aiyuk is a big target of mine but I don’t think he makes it to the end of the 5th.

His ADP is 63.25 and rising--but still available in the 6th, most of the time--even in 12 teamers.

It borders on the criminally insane.

[snatchit 108]

I am flirting with the idea of drafting both of the SF QB's late. If Jimmy is the starter he gets a soft schedule to start, and is looking really sharp in camp. Lance will be cheep and Jimmy will be free.  I think regardless.....I have a good feeling Lance will still take over in short order... then I can dump Jimmy

[Ray_T 588]

On 8/5/2021 at 12:51 PM, DocNiner said:

Yes Aiyuk.is underrated. Whoever's at QB the 2nd year receiver will put up decent numbers.

When Garoppolo got hurt, the offense was a train wreck and he still put up a decent rookie season.

If Garoppolo stayed healthy, its hard not to think this guy would have better stats yet and might be viewed as a legit WR1 going into this year.

That being said, I'll ask you all to shut up about it.  I dont need my players getting too much pre draft hype to boost their value before I take them.

[Ray_T 588]

1 hour ago, snatchit said:

I am flirting with the idea of drafting both of the SF QB's late. If Jimmy is the starter he gets a soft schedule to start, and is looking really sharp in camp. Lance will be cheep and Jimmy will be free.  I think regardless.....I have a good feeling Lance will still take over in short order... then I can dump Jimmy

I honestly dont think it will happen until Jimmy gets hurt. (if it happens)

as mentioned earlier, I agree Lance needs some work before hes ready.  If Garoppolo stays healthy at least a half season it would do the kid some good to watch the way he prepares for games and such.

The issue with Garoppolo has never been his talent and skill as a QB, its been about his ability to stay healthy.  If Jimmy G could stay healthy, this team likely wouldnt have even looked at Lance.

 

[weepaws 2,456]

Last season Aiyuk was 12th in avg per game non ppr. 

I think he’ll avg a little bit less with both Kittle and D Samuel back, and I see about 7-9 other WRs that could even surpass him in avg this season. 

I think in avg he’ll finish in the 16-20 range. 

Thanks. 

[purplengold47 27]

The fact of the matter is, Jimmy Garoppolo will win you games but he's not the superbowl winning qb that niners are looking for. He's like Alex smith 2.0 and thats is why KC got Mahomes eventhough alex smith was winning. I hope that the niners will have the same result.

[DocNiner 44]

As posted on main page on the NFC workload distribution they have Lance with more attempts this year and over 100 rush attempts. That could possibly happen if the 49er offense and Jimmy G have trouble putting points on the board. If that happens then yeah you're gonna see Lance earlier than some expect. I still am OK with Garoppolo  starting and keeping the QB job this year bit if he struggles then Shanny will pull him and put the rook in. If that happens then it'll be Lance the rest of the way.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

On 8/8/2021 at 4:23 AM, AxeElf said:

Get used to seeing this...

https://twitter.com/Thesfniners_/status/1424070466482839552

 

On 8/8/2021 at 12:35 PM, IGotWorms said:

So?  That was just piss poor defense.

I ain’t buying the hype. Not this year. Talk to me in 2022.

 

LOL, #48(?), would have flat out killed him had this been a real game.  He literally ran 4 or 5 steps past Lance before the kid even threw the ball.

 

ETA: I thought it was about Lance as well.  I like Aiyuk.  Lance?  We'll see.

[weepaws 2,456]

Jimmy G might not have won a super bowl , but he did something A Smith didn’t do, he lead a team to a super bowl. 

I think of Jimmy G can stay healthy he can do it once again with the Niners.