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The Football Guru

Instant Fantasy Analysis - TE Kyle Pitts, Falcons

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Team Fit: A player with the ability to force defensive coordinators to dramatically alter a game plan due to his presence on the field or his particular set of skills is what makes a skill-position player worthy of a high first-round pick. Don't make the mistake of thinking that Pitts will be underutilized just because new HC Arthur Smith didn't use Jonnu Smith as much as some would have liked in Tennessee. Not only is he the proverbial "too big for safeties and too fast for linebackers" tight end, but he is also a 6-6, 245-pounder with a massive wingspan (83-plus inches) that can run receiver routes against NFL-caliber cornerbacks and win those matchups. He's also an immediate threat for roughly 60 catches and 8-10 touchdowns. Why? Because defenses simply can't take their attention away from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Pitts needs to be viewed by the fantasy public as more of a big slot who plays in-line every so often as opposed to a tight end who can play in the slot.

What does it mean in redraft? TE1. It's a scary proposition to put any rookie tight end into the TE1 mix, but Pitts may be the best tight end prospect most draft observers have ever seen. 

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

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2 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

He will be the 4th TE off the board I’m guessing.

That would be pretty aggressive for a rookie TE.

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He’s going to raise the bar for Ryan this season. 

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

That would be pretty aggressive for a rookie TE.

Very but the drop off at TE there is pretty steep and it gets really tempting to shoot for the moon after the studs are off the board. Maybe 5-6 is more realistic after Andrews. You are in Hockensen, Tonyan territory at that point so there’a plenty of room for taking a shot.

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25 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Very but the drop off at TE there is pretty steep and it gets really tempting to shoot for the moon after the studs are off the board. Maybe 5-6 is more realistic after Andrews. You are in Hockensen, Tonyan territory at that point so there’a plenty of room for taking a shot.

I have no idea where I'm going to put Pitts yet, but I think this makes a ton of sense. I'll have to see what Detroit does at receiver before making a decision on Hockenson. I'm pretty sure Tonyan will end up ahead of Pitts, but I think his 2020 is realistic for Pitts as a rookie.

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I think he’s going to be another big ff impact player this next season. 

Just what Ryan needed. 

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They haven’t had as good a TE since Tony G and that’s what the offense has been lacking. Ryan gets better when he has better players around him (crazy, I know). 

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14 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

They haven’t had as good a TE since Tony G and that’s what the offense has been lacking. Ryan gets better when he has better players around him (crazy, I know). 

That is crazy talk 😁

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2 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Very but the drop off at TE there is pretty steep and it gets really tempting to shoot for the moon after the studs are off the board. Maybe 5-6 is more realistic after Andrews. You are in Hockensen, Tonyan territory at that point so there’a plenty of room for taking a shot.

TE is axually a lot deeper these days than it has been in years past; last year you had 12 TEs averaging between 6 and 8 points per week--all of them competent, none of them really difference makers.  Three TEs averaged a couple more points per week than that, but surely you don't think Pitts is going to be among those elite TEs right out of the gate.  If he's in that next group of 12, it will be about the best he can do, and if my choice on draft day is to have to reach for Pitts as the 4th TE off the board or take C.J. Uzomah's 11.4 PPR ppg ten rounds later, you can guess who I'm going to choose.

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So you would take the player Uzomah that played in only 2 games last season? 

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1 hour ago, The Football Guru said:

That is crazy talk 😁

IKR?  How soon they forget Austin Hooper, who helped me to many titles in 2019, and even Hayden Hurst was a top 12 TE in 2020.

What Atlanta DOESN'T have any more is Dirk Koetter at Offensive Coordinator; he was like the TE whisperer.  It will be interesting to see how the TE legacy plays out with the offense in new hands.

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1 minute ago, weepaws said:

So you would take the player Uzomah that played in only 2 games last season? 

All the way to the bank.

The fantasy public has a short memory.

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He ranked 21st in 2018 and 36th in 2019 when he played in 16 games. Based on avg per game  

PPR. 

Good luck. 

 

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Hurst ranked 14 in avg ppr last season. 

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2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

He ranked 21st in 2018 and 36th in 2019 when he played in 16 games. Based on avg per game  

PPR. 

Good luck. 

You mean when Tyler Eifert was their featured TE?

Who needs luck when you have Axe Elf?

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Just now, weepaws said:

Hurst ranked 14 in avg ppr last season. 

Oh come on, surely you can find some category in which he ranked lower than that if you just want to make me look foolish.

I was talking about in total fantasy points for the season, Brainiac.

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i wasn’t , I was talking avg  just like those 11 per game by Uzomah. 

10 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You mean when Tyler Eifert was their featured TE?

Who needs luck when you have Axe Elf?

Eifert only played in four games in 2018. 

 

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Was going to start a separate thread, but I’ll just throw the question here.

I have the #2 pick in our rookie draft, and figure Harris will go 1.  I currently have Andrews rostered.  I’m a huge fan of Pitts. Would you:

1. Draft Pitts at 2, and hope to deal Andrews?

2. Pass on Pitts, keep Andrews, and draft Etienne, Chase, Waddle or Smith?

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Chase

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I’ll take a chance on Pitts before I play musical JAGs with the rest of the bums. There will always be more bums to peel off the wire if I need to. That said, after some espn hype and maybe a highlight catch in practice Pitts will likely go too high for my taste anyway so I won’t have him.

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9 hours ago, tanatastic said:

They haven’t had as good a TE since Tony G and that’s what the offense has been lacking. Ryan gets better when he has better players around him (crazy, I know). 

 

9 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

That is crazy talk 😁

I don't really know how true that is.  Gonzalez retired after the 2013 season.  There's no one metric that tells you how good a QB is, but 4 of Matt Ryan's 5 best seasons (by passer rating), came after 2013.  His best season was 2016.  Can't really use W/L either because while Gonzalez was there (2009-2013), their defense wasn't terrible, they were top half of the league in 3 of the 5 years and in the top 5 twice.  Since then, they've been in the bottom third 5 of 7 seasons and top 10 only once.  

With Tony Gonzalez, the Falcons were 1-3 in the playoffs, since then, they're 3-2.  Did Gonzalez really make Ryan or the Falcons better?  :dunno:

 

Atlanta and Ryan have been pretty fortunate with talent.  He had Roddy White and Michael Tuner... then they added Gonzalez.  For a couple years they had White, Gonzalez, and Julio.  After White & Gonzo left, they still had Freeman and Sanu (made the Super Bowl that year).  Then they added Ridley.  It's not like they ever had down years on that front.

Now, their offense was in the top 10 in 3 of 5 Gonzalez's year there, so that is something, but they were also a top 5 defense in 2 of those.  I don't know how much impact Gonzalez really had on Ryan or the Falcons... well, how much more than anyone else.

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2 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Was going to start a separate thread, but I’ll just throw the question here.

I have the #2 pick in our rookie draft, and figure Harris will go 1.  I currently have Andrews rostered.  I’m a huge fan of Pitts. Would you:

1. Draft Pitts at 2, and hope to deal Andrews?

2. Pass on Pitts, keep Andrews, and draft Etienne, Chase, Waddle or Smith?

I’d probably draft Javonte Williams depending on where he ends up.

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2 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Was going to start a separate thread, but I’ll just throw the question here.

I have the #2 pick in our rookie draft, and figure Harris will go 1.  I currently have Andrews rostered.  I’m a huge fan of Pitts. Would you:

1. Draft Pitts at 2, and hope to deal Andrews?

2. Pass on Pitts, keep Andrews, and draft Etienne, Chase, Waddle or Smith?

Pitts is 20 years old and should already be considered a top-five dynasty asset at his position. He's not likely to play in-line all that much, so he figures to hold up better than most traditional tight ends would. Keep both IMO and figure out what to do Andrews later unless somebody gives you a Godfather deal. You know TE will be in demand.

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54 minutes ago, nobody said:

I’d probably draft Javonte Williams depending on where he ends up.

He’s another one I’m keeping an eye on.

In addition to Andrews at TE, I’ve got Lamar at QB, Taylor & Jacobs at RB...Thielen, Aiyuk, Odell & Claypool at WR.

In addition to the #2 in the rookie/free agent draft I also swung a couple of deals to get the #6 and #12 picks, so glad there’s some depth at the skill positions in this draft.

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10 hours ago, weepaws said:

Eifert only played in four games in 2018.

Will someone please ban me for life if I ever reply to this fool again?  I knew better.  I was like, "It's weepaws.  Just let it lie."  But no, I had to engage, and now I have to deal with the avalanche of nonsense that is the mandated punishment for ever replying to weepaws.

And now that I'm here, I feel compelled to take his wittle hand and point out that being the #18 TE when you're only the starter for 12 games is pretty good, and that if you added Eifert's 4 game production to Uzomah's, he would have been the TE9 that year.

In any case, Uzomah is now the clear #1 TE for Burrow, and should be a solid fantasy option in 2021.

Miss out if you like.

Thanks.

P.S.  Seriously.  Ban me for life if I ever stoop to messing with this twaddle again.

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4 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Was going to start a separate thread, but I’ll just throw the question here.

I have the #2 pick in our rookie draft, and figure Harris will go 1.  I currently have Andrews rostered.  I’m a huge fan of Pitts. Would you:

1. Draft Pitts at 2, and hope to deal Andrews?

2. Pass on Pitts, keep Andrews, and draft Etienne, Chase, Waddle or Smith?

Since you already have Andrews, I'd probly go with Etienne.  You're not going to get a stud RB in trade for Andrews if you draft Pitts, and I don't really like any of the WR situations you mentioned, although Chase is probably in the best position right now, with Waddle and Smith having QB concerns, and Waddle probly being at best a WR3 behind Parker and Fuller.

So my list as an Andrews owner would be Etienne, Chase and then Pitts.

You might even be able to trade down a couple of spots from the #2 if you can find the owners that really want Pitts or those WRs.

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6 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Will someone please ban me for life if I ever reply to this fool again?  I knew better.  I was like, "It's weepaws.  Just let it lie."  But no, I had to engage, and now I have to deal with the avalanche of nonsense that is the mandated punishment for ever replying to weepaws.

And now that I'm here, I feel compelled to take his wittle hand and point out that being the #18 TE when you're only the starter for 12 games is pretty good, and that if you added Eifert's 4 game production to Uzomah's, he would have been the TE9 that year.

In any case, Uzomah is now the clear #1 TE for Burrow, and should be a solid fantasy option in 2021.

Miss out if you like.

Thanks.

P.S.  Seriously.  Ban me for life if I ever stoop to messing with this twaddle again.

He was 21st in avg , and he avg about the same during those 12 games he started, and you can’t add Eifert game production into someone else’s game avg.  

Thanks always a pleasure chatting with you.  

 

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I would still take Chase. 

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Interesting part about TE is that being top 12 doesn’t mean as much as it does for the other positions. If you have the 12th wr that’s fine, but the 12th te is kaka. It’s like a battle for the top 6 and the rest are just dial a bums week to week based on matchups. It’s really hard for a roomie te to be top 6 but if someone can do it it’s Pitts with a QB like Ryan who can put up stats.

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21 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Interesting part about TE is that being top 12 doesn’t mean as much as it does for the other positions. If you have the 12th wr that’s fine, but the 12th te is kaka. It’s like a battle for the top 6 and the rest are just dial a bums week to week based on matchups. It’s really hard for a roomie te to be top 6 but if someone can do it it’s Pitts with a QB like Ryan who can put up stats.

Yeah, their defense is going to stink again, so I'm thinking they'll be throwing from behind a lot.  I can see Pitts as a top 5 or 6 TE this year... especially if they trade Julio.

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On 4/29/2021 at 7:02 PM, tanatastic said:

He will be the 4th TE off the board I’m guessing.

Yeah he’s going to go high. And I’m even tempted to pay that price.

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I’ll never have a chance, the te slot is my third to last pick.  

I’ll stream until someone’s drops a good one.  

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In redraft, Pitts is a high risk/ high reward guy. I think that's how he'll be drafted. I doubt he goes before the 4-5th round in most drafts. Some will over reach but most will be leery.

That said, I don't think he puts up prime Gronk numbers just yet, but I think he will do just good enough to be a solid TE1. He will have some big games and big plays, probably score a few TDs, but he will have plenty of growing pains. I say in the ball park of 60 catches, 800 yards, and 7 TDs, but the big majority of those points will come in 3-4 games.

I play in dynasty leagues more so, he's gonna be a high pick. I could see him going first in some drafts and top 5 in most.

I know in the dynasty leagues I have played in over the years, when there is a real stud TE, like Kelce, or Gronk in his prime, their trade value is insane. You can pretty much put together a deal for about any player you want.

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On 4/30/2021 at 9:09 AM, tanatastic said:

I’ll take a chance on Pitts before I play musical JAGs with the rest of the bums. There will always be more bums to peel off the wire if I need to. That said, after some espn hype and maybe a highlight catch in practice Pitts will likely go too high for my taste anyway so I won’t have him.

probably true.

but....

there is a sizeable group of people out there who refuse to pay a high price for a TE no matter how good he is.   That is a lot of stigma to overcome.  Not to mention the fact that it is rare for a TE to make a large fantasy impact in year 1 of their career.

That being said, I suppose it really depends on the format of your league.

in a draft, the odds are better that he goes higher than he should.  in an auction he may go lower(especially if you are the only bidder).   if there is only one or two buyers for a player in an auction, the price may not be exceptionally high.

I'd say his value is higher in keeper/dynasty.  especially if you have prospects you have the ability to sit for a year while they develop.

in redraft I would say there are likely only 2 TE's worthy of drafting early. 

If you consider pitts among those elite guys you basically need close to 1000 yards and 8 TDs in a rookie season for that pick to payoff for you.  While I dont doubt Pitts is capable of this, I wouldnt bet on it in year 1.  Year 2 perhaps.... but not year 1.

so in redraft I take him with the other cheapie TEs  Maybe a little sooner if you wanna make sure you get him.

in a dynasty league I'd take him in the first round of your rookie draft for sure.   of course that is assuming that it makes sense based on  the format of your dynasty league.  but in most formats, hes a first round rookie pick.  Top 5 for sure.  top 3 possibly.   I dont know if I'd take him at #1 or not.  that may vary depending on the rules of your league and what your team looks like.

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2 hours ago, polecatt said:

I say in the ball park of 60 catches, 800 yards, and 7 TDs, but the big majority of those points will come in 3-4 games.

LOL

You realize that's 182 PPR fantasy points, right?  If he does that, he'll pretty much be the TE1.

Here are the top PPR fantasy point totals for TEs from the past 5 years, and how much your projection for Pitts compares to them:

2016:  Travis Kelce  138.0 (44.0)

2017:  Rob Gronkowski 158.3 (23.7)

2018:  Travis Kelce 191.6 (9.6) - George Kittle was #2 with 170.7

2019:  Travis Kelce 157.3 (24.7)

2020:  Travis Kelce 207.8 (25.8) - Darren Waller was #2 with 171.6

So you're basically saying that Pitts is going to be as good as Kelce/Kittle/Waller as a rookie--and he's going to do most of it in 3-4 games???

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

2020:  Travis Kelce 207.8 (25.8) - Darren Waller was #2 with 171.6

What? Waller had over 230 pts in half Ppr, how did you get 171 in full?

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17 minutes ago, jrokh said:

What? Waller had over 230 pts in half Ppr, how did you get 171 in full?

Yeah, I think at some point in my research I accidentally clicked over to STD scoring.  Sorry.

This projection for Pitts would still put him third, though, as Tonyan was third with 176.6.  In a couple of years, maybe (or if Koetter was still the OC of the Falcons), but not as a rookie.

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yeah, I'm guessing his first 4-6 games will be weak

maybe to a point where you may find him on waiver wires.   but I figure his second half of the season may be where we see him start to show what hes capable of.

if you are lucky, you dont buy and can get him for free when his owner dumps him after 3 games.

wishful thinking? perhaps.

but not impossible.

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I think his rookie season will mirror what Hurst did last season 

He’s going to have a few really good games with a lot of avg ones. 

His value is much higher in a keeper league than in a redraft this first season.  

 

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