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Instant Fantasy Analysis - TE Kyle Pitts, Falcons

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20 hours ago, AxeElf said:

LOL

You realize that's 182 PPR fantasy points, right?  If he does that, he'll pretty much be the TE1.

Here are the top PPR fantasy point totals for TEs from the past 5 years, and how much your projection for Pitts compares to them:

2016:  Travis Kelce  138.0 (44.0)

2017:  Rob Gronkowski 158.3 (23.7)

2018:  Travis Kelce 191.6 (9.6) - George Kittle was #2 with 170.7

2019:  Travis Kelce 157.3 (24.7)

2020:  Travis Kelce 207.8 (25.8) - Darren Waller was #2 with 171.6

So you're basically saying that Pitts is going to be as good as Kelce/Kittle/Waller as a rookie--and he's going to do most of it in 3-4 games???

What?

You do realize that Kelce has had 100 catches and over 1200 yards the past 3 seasons, and double digit TDs two of those three seasons?

Waller has averaged about 95 catches, over 1100 yards and 6 TDs the past two seasons.

I don't see how that's close to what I said for Pitts.

Besides, we don't all use the same scoring system anyway.

I've basically said he's gonna put up Mark Andrews numbers, which I don't think is a big stretch.

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5 hours ago, polecatt said:

You do realize that Kelce has had 100 catches and over 1200 yards the past 3 seasons, and double digit TDs two of those three seasons?

And five the other one, but that wasn't really my point.

5 hours ago, polecatt said:

I've basically said he's gonna put up Mark Andrews numbers, which I don't think is a big stretch.

It's a HUGE stretch for a rookie TE.  That was my point.

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Pitts is a pass catching TE, not an inline TE, so he's not going to be used as a blocker.  I think he's going to be used as a WR more often than not on 3-WR sets.  I think Gage and Hurst will be relegated to 4th WR & blocking TE (respectively), as the season progresses.  How much use everyone ends up getting will be based on health.  I still expect Matt Ryan to throw the ball 600+ times because their defense will still probably stink because they didn't sign nor draft, anyone of note.  Mike Davis does add more to the backfield, so that should help the offense be more productive, but I don't think it reduces the number of pass attempts.

I think both Jones and Ridley see a small reduction in targets but a big drop for Gage and Hurst.  I can see 55/700/6 for Pitts.  If someone like Ridley or Jones, (again), misses a lot of games, then I can see Pitts getting closer to 70 receptions (or the potential there of).

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I think Gage will match last season if not surpass what he produced last season.  

 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Pitts is a pass catching TE, not an inline TE, so he's not going to be used as a blocker.  I think he's going to be used as a WR more often than not on 3-WR sets.  I think Gage and Hurst will be relegated to 4th WR & blocking TE (respectively), as the season progresses.  How much use everyone ends up getting will be based on health.  I still expect Matt Ryan to throw the ball 600+ times because their defense will still probably stink because they didn't sign nor draft, anyone of note.  Mike Davis does add more to the backfield, so that should help the offense be more productive, but I don't think it reduces the number of pass attempts.

I think both Jones and Ridley see a small reduction in targets but a big drop for Gage and Hurst.  I can see 55/700/6 for Pitts.  If someone like Ridley or Jones, (again), misses a lot of games, then I can see Pitts getting closer to 70 receptions (or the potential there of).

55/ 6 would match Hurst production from last season , so I can see that taking place.  

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I can see 55/700/6 for Pitts.

Good grief, you (and I mean "you" collectively, not just YOU) wouldn't expect so much out of this guy if he was a rookie WR.  He's a rookie TIGHT END, for goodness sake.  There have been basically two such rookie seasons for TEs in fantasy points in this century--and they both played for the Giants.  Jeremy Shockey did it in 2002 (with receptions and yardage; he scored only 2 TDs) and Evan Engram in 2017 (when Beckham missed most of the season and the Giants' other two leading WRs were Roger Lewis and a 2nd-season Sterling Shepard).  Add in Rob Gronkowski and you have the only 3 rookie TEs to score more than 150 PPR fantasy points this century.  The Falcons have lots of credible options outside of Pitts, including another former first-round draft pick (2018) at TE.  You're just not going to see that kind of production from Pitts in his first season.

 

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Good grief, you (and I mean "you" collectively, not just YOU) wouldn't expect so much out of this guy if he was a rookie WR.  He's a rookie TIGHT END, for goodness sake.  There have been basically two such rookie seasons for TEs in fantasy points in this century--and they both played for the Giants.  Jeremy Shockey did it in 2002 (with receptions and yardage; he scored only 2 TDs) and Evan Engram in 2017 (when Beckham missed most of the season and the Giants' other two leading WRs were Roger Lewis and a 2nd-season Sterling Shepard).  Add in Rob Gronkowski and you have the only 3 rookie TEs to score more than 150 PPR fantasy points this century.  The Falcons have lots of credible options outside of Pitts, including another former first-round draft pick (2018) at TE.  You're just not going to see that kind of production from Pitts in his first season.

 

In 2002, Kerry Collins threw the ball 545 times (completed 61.5%), Ryan threw it 626 times (completed 65%).  That's a big difference, no?

In 2017, the Giants threw the ball 608 times (close to Ryan), but they completed 61.3%.  Engram was the go-to guy, but only caught 56% of the passes thrown to him, because there weren't enough options for the defenses to key on.

In Atlanta, teams won't be able to double cover Pitts, with Jones and Ridley being on the field.  Pitts won't need the 115 targets that Engram got, nor the 128 that Shockey got.  Also, I believe that the Falcons will use Pitts more in a 3 WR sets than the Giants did with both Engram and Shockey.

I think Gronkowski in a sense, is actually a fair comparison.  He had only 42 receptions on 59 targets.  I see similar for Pitts.  I think he gets more targets than Gronk, but definitely less than Engram and Shockey... I think he gets around 75-80.  I think he'll line up at WR a lot more than those 3 did too, hence why I think he'll get more targets/receptions than Gronk.  Also, Atlanta won't be good on defense.  They're going to be throwing the ball a lot.  I think Ryan is good for another 600+ attempt season, he could be around the same 626 again.

This is more of a passing league than in years past.  Look at the 2017 Buccaneers.  Mike Evans (136 targets), DeSean Jackson (90), Adam Humphries (83), Brate (77), Godwin (55), Charles Sims (47)... Howard still got 39 targets with 26 receptions, 432 yards, and 6 TD's.  That's 105 points in 14 games.  That average gets him 120 points in 16.  Do you really see 6 players getting more targets than Pitts, in Atlanta?  Who?  Jones and Ridley?  Yes.  Gage?  maybe.  Who else?  It won't be Hurst.  It won't be Davis.  At worst, Pitts will be 4th in target share.

Why wouldn't I expect that out of him if he were a WR?  Last year, 8 rookie WR's compiled 150+ fantasy points and 7 of them were either 1st or 2nd round draft picks... 5 of them scored over 180 points. 

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Looks like Kelce recorded over 150 ppr points in his rookie season of 2014

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3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Looks like Kelce recorded over 150 ppr points in his rookie season of 2014

Technically, that was his 2nd season.  In his rookie season, he had 1 play on special teams in Week 2.  Apparently got hurt at some point and was on IR from Week 6 on.  That was his only play all season.

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8 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

At worst, Pitts will be 4th in target share.

I'm just gonna leave you and weepaws to your palatial estates in la-la land.

I'd be mildly surprised if Pitts has more targets than Hurst as a rookie, axually.

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Technically, that was his 2nd season.  In his rookie season, he had 1 play on special teams in Week 2.  Apparently got hurt at some point and was on IR from Week 6 on.  That was his only play all season.

Tony Gonzales rookie season 2000, scored 267. 

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3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Technically, that was his 2nd season.  In his rookie season, he had 1 play on special teams in Week 2.  Apparently got hurt at some point and was on IR from Week 6 on.  That was his only play all season.

Lol gotcha. 

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2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Tony Gonzales rookie season 2000, scored 267. 

Gonzalez's rookie season was 1997.  In 1999, he had 226.

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2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Tony Gonzales rookie season 2000, scored 267. 

Gonzalez's rookie year was 1997. 33/368/2.

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4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I'm just gonna leave you and weepaws to your palatial estates in la-la land.

I'd be mildly surprised if Pitts has more targets than Hurst as a rookie, axually.

Sounds good.  Thanks.  See ya in December.

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Sorry , I was looking at ff today stats, and they start at 2000. I thought it went farther back  

Sorry about that. 

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I think it’s clear that a talent like Pitts teaming up with Ryan, could record 150 ppr points.  

I think that line of 55/700/6 or more tds is very possible 

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22 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I'm just gonna leave you and weepaws to your palatial estates in la-la land.

I'd be mildly surprised if Pitts has more targets than Hurst as a rookie, axually.

He might not have as many targets, but he still might score more ff points.  

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17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

And five the other one, but that wasn't really my point.

It's a HUGE stretch for a rookie TE.  That was my point.

He has a high bust potential as any rookie pass catcher does, but I think people are trying to feel out his potential a bit.

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1 hour ago, polecatt said:

He has a high bust potential as any rookie pass catcher does, but I think people are trying to feel out his potential a bit.

Yeah, they're just talking about his potential two or three years down the line as if it is the same as his 2021 potential.

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2 hours ago, polecatt said:

He has a high bust potential as any rookie pass catcher does, but I think people are trying to feel out his potential a bit.

Great way of finding out how the ff world things about players during this period of time. 

It’s like a mock draft, that’s what makes this site so great, plus we have the Guru. 

 

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, they're just talking about his potential two or three years down the line as if it is the same as his 2021 potential.

Maybe, but I think if in 2-3 seasons, if he's just putting up numbers like I suggested this season, and not putting up numbers like Kelce or Gronk a few years ago, it will be a bit of a disappointment.

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29 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Great way of finding out how the ff world things about players during this period of time. 

It’s like a mock draft, that’s what makes this site so great, plus we have the Guru. 

 

Yes, getting a good idea of how people on here view different players is a decent guide to how people in our own leagues will view them

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

It’s like a mock draft, that’s what makes this site so great, plus we have the Guru. 

 

You're too kind.

I may have an opening for a hype man though 😎

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1 hour ago, polecatt said:

Maybe, but I think if in 2-3 seasons, if he's just putting up numbers like I suggested this season, and not putting up numbers like Kelce or Gronk a few years ago, it will be a bit of a disappointment.

But the numbers you're suggesting for this season are pretty much what Kelce and Gronk were putting up a few years ago--and the chance of a rookie TE who is behind a 2018 #1 draft pick at his position on the depth chart is not at all likely to achieve them.

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We all know rookie te is not a good bet for fantasy, they just don’t do much usually. But Pitts believers are just saying they are willing to gamble on a generational talent with a pass friendly team could potentially have one of those outlier type seasons, that’s all. He probably won’t but if anyone can it it’s him. The only problem with this is the hype will be baked into his draft stock already so you are likely to be already paying for a breakout, which is a big no no. 

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I hope those in my 14 team league that like to draft their te early keep up the good work  and pick Pitts early.  

 

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

We all know rookie te is not a good bet for fantasy, they just don’t do much usually. But Pitts believers are just saying they are willing to gamble on a generational talent with a pass friendly team could potentially have one of those outlier type seasons, that’s all. He probably won’t but if anyone can it it’s him. The only problem with this is the hype will be baked into his draft stock already so you are likely to be already paying for a breakout, which is a big no no. 

To me, the biggest difference is two-fold.  1) Pitts is more of a hybrid TE in that, because he's not really a blocker, he'll line up as both a TE and a WR... kind of like Jimmy Graham in New Orleans.  Of course, the retort to that is the same as mentioned above, "Graham only got 31 catches, 356 yards, and 5 TD's his rookie year".  True, but Graham was a 3rd round pick... not the #4 pick overall.  2) Opportunity.  Graham wasn't asked to or expected to be a big part of that offense.  They had Coltson, Moore, Meecham, and Henderson.  All of who had legitimate expectations.  They also had Jeremy Shockey.  In Atlanta, it's Ridley, an aging Julio, and... who?  Russell Gage is an emergency valve.  He got more time this year because Jones missed half the season.  Hurst is a decent player, but he'll be the in-line guy.  Pitts is a playmaker.  He's not going to take a back seat to Hurst.

I think Pitts has the 3rd most targets on the team this year, behind Ridley and Jones.  Last year, there were 4 TE's who score in the 170's... Logan Thomas, Robert Tonyan, TJ Hockenson, and Mark Andrews.  They ranked (in that order), 3rd through 6th last year.  Andrews had 58 rec / 701 yards / 7 TD's on 88 targets.  I see Pitts getting around that kind of opportunity in Atlanta.  I expect his production would be slightly better too because I think his ypr will be higher as will his TD's.  As we know, for some reason, they don't throw to Julio in the end zone, but they might with Pitts.  I think there's a possibility that he breaks 200 points.  Will he put up Kelce, Waller, Kittle numbers?  No, but I think he puts up numbers with the next tier... and be at the top of that tier.  I'd take him over anyone else after those 3.  Now, I'm thinking that's 4th round or so.  I usually like to take 2 RB's and 3 WR's before I address the TE position, so I'm guessing that I won't get him.  But, if I think I scored big with my first 3 picks, then I might pull the trigger on him in the 4th round.  But I doubt it.  I think Andrews will be there in the 6th or 7th rounds, I'd rather target him than a second tier TE in the 4th.

I'm thinking that I won't be taking him this year, but I won't be surprised if he pays off for the person who does.  In my keeper league, I'll take him in the 2nd round, but I doubt he gets to me.

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21 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm thinking that I won't be taking him this year, but I won't be surprised if he pays off for the person who does.  In my keeper league, I'll take him in the 2nd round, but I doubt he gets to me.

I feel the same way. He probably won’t be on my team but he has a ton of breakout potential that can’t be simply compared to other rookie TEs prior. 

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I think Evan Engram's rookie year numbers are well within the spectrum of possible outcomes for Pitts this year. Engram 2017: 64 rec, 722 yards, 6td. If Julio gets traded I'd say those numbers will be his floor.

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25 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I think Evan Engram's rookie year numbers are well within the spectrum of possible outcomes for Pitts this year. Engram 2017: 64 rec, 722 yards, 6td. If Julio gets traded I'd say those numbers will be his floor.

That’s reasonable if not expected. What makes him appealing is the upper range of potential outcomes blows the doors off of any from a TE coming out of the draft I can recall. The downside for me is probably having to roster 2 te through the season since Pitts isn’t a guy I would drop after a few bad games like other bums at te. He could take time to get in flow or have a huge 2nd half after a slow start.

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2 hours ago, tanatastic said:

That’s reasonable if not expected. What makes him appealing is the upper range of potential outcomes blows the doors off of any from a TE coming out of the draft I can recall. The downside for me is probably having to roster 2 te through the season since Pitts isn’t a guy I would drop after a few bad games like other bums at te. He could take time to get in flow or have a huge 2nd half after a slow start.

I think you hit the nail on the head earlier. You’re going to have to draft him like he’ll be a breakout star. There’s not going to be a lot of upside at his ADP. Meanwhile, rookie TEs typically disappoint. So all the risk and not much reward other than he does what you hope he will

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On 5/5/2021 at 11:52 AM, weepaws said:

I think it’s clear that a talent like Pitts teaming up with Ryan, could record 150 ppr points.  

I think that line of 55/700/6 or more tds is very possible 

Very obtainable. 

He wont be on my team, I don’t draft the te slot early enough to get him, but I think he’ll produce. 

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I was just looking at the early ADP's and Pitts is going off at pick 119 as TE13, so we're late 10th round.  I doubt that holds.  I never take QB's that  early unless I think a great players falls to far, so if my first 7 picks are RB's and WR's and a TE like Thomas or Hockenson, I won't have a problem pulling the trigger in round 9, on Pitts.

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3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I was just looking at the early ADP's and Pitts is going off at pick 119 as TE13, so we're late 10th round.  I doubt that holds.  I never take QB's that  early unless I think a great players falls to far, so if my first 7 picks are RB's and WR's and a TE like Thomas or Hockenson, I won't have a problem pulling the trigger in round 9, on Pitts.

That won’t hold 

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7 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

That won’t hold 

Things like this never do.  Everyone starts drafting him in round 9, so the next move will be take him in round 8, and so on.  But, if I were a gambling man in a particular draft (like my office league), I'd take him in the 6th after I had 3 WR's and 2 RB's, just for shitz and giggles.

Based on how people take TE's and what TE's are available, I can understand the logic behind someone doing that.  I mean, if you think that Pitts can have a big year, take him.  You can get a Mike Gesicki at pick 140 (apparently).  Will there be that much of a diffenrece between a guy like Andrews and Gesicki?  Take a shot on Pitts being a top 3 TE.

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On the few mocks I’ve done online, he’s been consistently drafted as the 6 -8th te.  

His ADP shall be moving.  

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35 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Jones is traded, expect Pitts to be drafted just after Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

Agreed. 

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37 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Jones is traded, expect Pitts to be drafted just after Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

Just don't be the one that makes that error.

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