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Instant Fantasy Analysis - TE Kyle Pitts, Falcons

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One big play in preseason or even practice and he will be a rnd 3/4 pick for someone in your league. 

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Agreed. 

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If Jones does get traded, depending on how my draft goes and the depth of WR's, I'd be ok with taking Pitts in the 4th.  I think he ends up second in targets on the team behind Ridley.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Jones does get traded, depending on how my draft goes and the depth of WR's, I'd be ok with taking Pitts in the 4th.  I think he ends up second in targets on the team behind Ridley.

Man that’s a big gamble. He basically has to have the best rookie TE season ever or he’s a bust at that spot. No?

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55 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Man that’s a big gamble. He basically has to have the best rookie TE season ever or he’s a bust at that spot. No?

Oh, it is, but I think it's a viable one to take.  Based on the current ADP and the depth of WR's, I could see a scenario that would make the gamble worth it.  For example, if I had the 3rd pick, the ADP tells me I could have my first 3 picks being...

  • 1.03    Derrick Henry
  • 2.10    Joe Mixon
  • 3.03    Keenan Allen
  • 4.10    Kyle Pitts
  • 5.03    Kenny Golladay
  • 6.10    Najee Harris
  • 7.03    Tom Brady
  • 8.10    Brandin Cooks

I can cover myself by getting Gronk or Goedert in the 9th round.  I'd have 2 solid starting RB's, 2 WR's who could be #1's in Allen and Golladay, a solid #2 in Cooks, a potential solid RB in Harris, and a possible top 5 QB in Brady.  Having Pitts could be a HR that puts me over the top.

If I had Pick #9, I could have Chubb, Akers, McLaurin, PITTS, followed by Kupp, Moore, cover myself with Hunter Henry or Logan Thomas in the 7th, and in the 8th get a QB like Burrow, Stafford (who I really like), or sure up my backfield a little and take Moss.

If Pitts doesn't pan out, I'll have a guy like Gronk, Goedert, Henry, or Thomas to bail me out.  If I'm right though, I could have a top end TE as my flex and a strong TE option.

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No te should be drafted in a redraft league before the double digit rounds start

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

No te should be drafted in a redraft league before the double digit rounds start

So you would pass on Kelce in the 9th round? Your league must be so awesome...

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5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

So you would pass on Kelce in the 9th round? Your league must be so awesome...

My league would be horrible if Kelce was still available in the 9th round.  

See his ADP is a first round pick, don’t you know that ? Guess not.  

Amen. 

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3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

My league would be horrible if Kelce was still available in the 9th round.  

See his ADP is a first round pick, don’t you know that ? Guess not.  

Amen. 

Then why did you say no TE should be drafted before double digit rounds? Isn’t Kelce a TE? 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Oh, it is, but I think it's a viable one to take.  Based on the current ADP and the depth of WR's, I could see a scenario that would make the gamble worth it.  For example, if I had the 3rd pick, the ADP tells me I could have my first 3 picks being...

  • 1.03    Derrick Henry
  • 2.10    Joe Mixon
  • 3.03    Keenan Allen
  • 4.10    Kyle Pitts
  • 5.03    Kenny Golladay
  • 6.10    Najee Harris
  • 7.03    Tom Brady
  • 8.10    Brandin Cooks

I can cover myself by getting Gronk or Goedert in the 9th round.  I'd have 2 solid starting RB's, 2 WR's who could be #1's in Allen and Golladay, a solid #2 in Cooks, a potential solid RB in Harris, and a possible top 5 QB in Brady.  Having Pitts could be a HR that puts me over the top.

If I had Pick #9, I could have Chubb, Akers, McLaurin, PITTS, followed by Kupp, Moore, cover myself with Hunter Henry or Logan Thomas in the 7th, and in the 8th get a QB like Burrow, Stafford (who I really like), or sure up my backfield a little and take Moss.

If Pitts doesn't pan out, I'll have a guy like Gronk, Goedert, Henry, or Thomas to bail me out.  If I'm right though, I could have a top end TE as my flex and a strong TE option.

You won't get Najee that low by the time August comes around, but I think the approach is solid.  We tend to look at individual draft picks in a vacuum when we really should be looking at the draft wholistically.  I usually plan my early rounds based on what value I think I can get in late rounds.  For instance, if I thought I could get Najee at 6.10, that makes Pitts at 4.10 more viable.  The year Michael Turner went to Atlanta, I knew I could get him in the late 4th so I went WR heavy in the first few rounds.  Things like that.

In reality, I'd probably just shoot for Jonnu in the 11th or where he's going.  This is also why I dislike segregating TEs and WRs.  In leagues I run, I just make 3 pass catcher positions that cover them both.  

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8 minutes ago, nobody said:

You won't get Najee that low by the time August comes around, but I think the approach is solid.  We tend to look at individual draft picks in a vacuum when we really should be looking at the draft wholistically.  I usually plan my early rounds based on what value I think I can get in late rounds.  For instance, if I thought I could get Najee at 6.10, that makes Pitts at 4.10 more viable.  The year Michael Turner went to Atlanta, I knew I could get him in the late 4th so I went WR heavy in the first few rounds.  Things like that.

In reality, I'd probably just shoot for Jonnu in the 11th or where he's going.  This is also why I dislike segregating TEs and WRs.  In leagues I run, I just make 3 pass catcher positions that cover them both.  

You might get Mixon a little lower and Golladay I think will be higher the same with Najee. 

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20 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Then why did you say no TE should be drafted before double digit rounds? Isn’t Kelce a TE? 

Wait don’t you know that Kelce is a te with KC, hey don’t you know anything about football?

Amen. 

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11 minutes ago, nobody said:

You won't get Najee that low by the time August comes around, but I think the approach is solid.  We tend to look at individual draft picks in a vacuum when we really should be looking at the draft wholistically.  I usually plan my early rounds based on what value I think I can get in late rounds.  For instance, if I thought I could get Najee at 6.10, that makes Pitts at 4.10 more viable.  The year Michael Turner went to Atlanta, I knew I could get him in the late 4th so I went WR heavy in the first few rounds.  Things like that.

In reality, I'd probably just shoot for Jonnu in the 11th or where he's going.  This is also why I dislike segregating TEs and WRs.  In leagues I run, I just make 3 pass catcher positions that cover them both.  

Smith isn't a bad option in the 11th round.  To me, the biggest reason to not take Pitts early has nothing to do with him being a rookie or Julio, but the actual depth at TE this year.  At this point in time, other than Pitts, there's literally 15 TE's that are worth a starting role in your fantasy lineup.

  • Travis Kelce
  • George Kittle
  • Darren Waller
  • Mark Andrews
  • T.J. Hockenson
  • Noah Fant
  • Logan Thomas
  • Hunter Henry
  • Evan Engram
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Dallas Goedert
  • Hayden Hurst
  • Jonnu Smith
  • Robert Tonyan
  • Mike Gesicki
     

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Higbee should be on your list of te, Everett and his 41 rec moved onto Seattle, and the Rams have a upgrade at the Qb. 

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24 minutes ago, nobody said:

You won't get Najee that low by the time August comes around, but I think the approach is solid.  We tend to look at individual draft picks in a vacuum when we really should be looking at the draft wholistically.  I usually plan my early rounds based on what value I think I can get in late rounds.  For instance, if I thought I could get Najee at 6.10, that makes Pitts at 4.10 more viable.  The year Michael Turner went to Atlanta, I knew I could get him in the late 4th so I went WR heavy in the first few rounds.  Things like that.

In reality, I'd probably just shoot for Jonnu in the 11th or where he's going.  This is also why I dislike segregating TEs and WRs.  In leagues I run, I just make 3 pass catcher positions that cover them both.  

I’m high on Jonnu the player but I don’t know about Jonnu the TE. On its face he’s gone to a wretched passing offense so it’s hard to imagine an uptick in his receiving numbers.

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24 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’m high on Jonnu the player but I don’t know about Jonnu the TE. On its face he’s gone to a wretched passing offense so it’s hard to imagine an uptick in his receiving numbers.

I thought that too at first, but remember, Newton loved throwing the ball to Olsen for a number of years.  I think if Smith can be a reliable target, Cam will throw him the ball.  Of course, if Newton flat out stinks, which is a legitimate concern, it won't matter.  LOL

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On 5/24/2021 at 10:04 AM, jrokh said:

Then why did you say no TE should be drafted before double digit rounds? Isn’t Kelce a TE? 

That’s Weep speak for “dont be the guy taking a te before the double digit rounds, let others do it and take the later values instead.”.

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On 5/24/2021 at 1:17 PM, weepaws said:

No te should be drafted in a redraft league before the double digit rounds start

I disagree. There are a lot of toss up running backs in the 1st and 2nd. Kelce is an automatic stud. My best teams last year had kelce

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1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I disagree. There are a lot of toss up running backs in the 1st and 2nd. Kelce is an automatic stud. My best teams last year had kelce

Congrats. 

No te should be draft in a redraft league before the double digit rounds. 

I’ll take my chances that I’ll land a darn good quality te that will go with my stud first round rb and win plenty also. 

I hope this post finds you healthy and filled with peace comfort and joy. 

Amen 

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6 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I disagree. There are a lot of toss up running backs in the 1st and 2nd. Kelce is an automatic stud. My best teams last year had kelce

So your best teams last year had Kelce, what does that look like, your 6 win teams had Kelce and your 4 win teams didn’t have Kelce? 

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On 5/2/2021 at 11:26 AM, tanatastic said:

Interesting part about TE is that being top 12 doesn’t mean as much as it does for the other positions. If you have the 12th wr that’s fine, but the 12th te is kaka. It’s like a battle for the top 6 and the rest are just dial a bums week to week based on matchups. It’s really hard for a roomie te to be top 6 but if someone can do it it’s Pitts with a QB like Ryan who can put up stats.

I would go further than that.

the top 3 or 4 usually give you an advantage in most matchups.  but after that, the difference between #5 and #12 is usually minimal.

This is the reason most TE's dont get picked until the very late rounds in the draft.

You grab the 5th TE or the 12th TE off the board, and assuming They score as predicted, there could be very little in terms of results that would differentiate both of these picks.

but the bottom line is usually there are only 3 or 4 TE's in any given year worth picking early.

I've had pretty good luck with TE's over the years.   But its probably mostly just good luck that I had the good fortune here.

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Draft your te late and stream. 

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You can bank Kelce early it just means you have to hit on your next few rounds or else you could fall behind the teams that hit on their Rbs AND found the late gem te. You ideally always want to be the guy who lands the late gems and has their early studs pan out. No easy feat of course, but I’m ok playing musical bums at te.

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56 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

You can bank Kelce early it just means you have to hit on your next few rounds or else you could fall behind the teams that hit on their Rbs AND found the late gem te. You ideally always want to be the guy who lands the late gems and has their early studs pan out. No easy feat of course, but I’m ok playing musical bums at te.

I guess one way to rank players would be to pivot away from ranking guys by total points and rank them relative to the league average starter.  Then you can try to put together the team that gives you the highest delta above average.

So it would be something like this 

  1. RB 1 +8.3
  2. WR1 +4.1
  3. RB2 +0.1
  4. WR2 -0.1
  5. WR3 -2.6
  6. RB3 -3.9
  7. QB +1.2
  8. TE -0.2

I just made up these numbers, but you get the idea.

It goes back to drafting a team as opposed to drafting a player.  For instance, if you can get Najee in the 6th and you think he's +3.2 or whatever, it would make sense to draft different positions in the early rounds.

 

 

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Why back when I first started playing ff and for many seasons into my very successful ff career I used to draft qbs early te early and kept having the same issue , depth at rb and wr, injury’s happen and bye weeks take place, but as the season rolls on the stock value for Rbs  and WRs  gets much more shadow less and less quality available as those mighty playoffs approached, but there was still some good sold stock left for the streaming at the TE  and Qb slot much like kickers and def, so I started streaming those slots and it’s been very successful and very frustrating for those in my league. I’ve been very very lucky and we all knows that’s all it comes down to in ff Luck. 

Plus it sure makes it more fun streaming those four slots week in and week out.  

 

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We get it.  You've posted the same thing 10 times.  You don't think TEs are worth a pick before the 10th round.

Can the rest of us that play in half point and full PPR leagues talk about where the optimal spot might be?

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49 minutes ago, nobody said:

Can the rest of us that play in half point and full PPR leagues talk about where the optimal spot might be?

As someone who plays almost exclusively in half and full PPR leagues, Axe Elf recommends at least the 10th round in 12-team leagues and at least the 12th round in 10-team leagues.*

*Unless you can reasonably get Kelce (and that means after 7 or 8 RBs are off the board), and if you can do that, you do it, because the Chiefs' offense is going to set records this year.  (Same goes for Mahomes, but after the 2nd round.)

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4 hours ago, nobody said:

We get it.  You've posted the same thing 10 times.  You don't think TEs are worth a pick before the 10th round.

Can the rest of us that play in half point and full PPR leagues talk about where the optimal spot might be?

Oh my soul let me apologize to you room manager. 

Plus im pretty sure it’s been more like 11 times.  

As for talking about half or full ppr you can talk about that all day long, I’m not stopping you room manager.m

Ive participated in many ppr leagues , even the non ppr 14 team league I’m in now was for years a ppr league, we simply become bored with ppr. 

So ok let’s talk ppr, when should one take their te in ppr, ok double digit rounds.  

I hope my post finds you healthy and filled with peace comfort and joy. 

 

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