Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Mac Jones, Patriots

[The Football Guru 211]

Draft Profile

Team Fit: Is it really surprising that one year after one of the most celebrated anticipatory passers in league history (Tom Brady) moves to another team that the Patriots somehow end up with perhaps this draft's most cerebral signal-caller? Jones plays with a discipline and intelligence that belies his 17 career starts, winning with his ability to anticipate, process and throw with accuracy like an NFL veteran. Jones' work ethic is also reaching legendary status. If Jones can get knocked on anything, it is his athleticism relative to the rest of his contemporaries in this draft class and the number of easy throws he had in 2020. (Per Pro Football Focus, Jones only threw into 44 tight windows all season. For the sake of comparison, Joe Burrow threw into 124 in 2019.) The Florida native figures to sit behind Cam Newton for a bit in 2020, but he will benefit from New England's investment in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith in free agency - and likely lean on them while the Pats continue to build up their receiving corps - once he becomes the starter.

What does it mean in redraft? Superflex bench depth, at least until Newton misses time. If Newton goes down early, he could serve as a low-end QB2 as a rookie.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[Ray_T 587]

Yeah,  I would say this is likely the best possible landing spot for this kid.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Great spot for him. Bears trade up to take Fields and patriots just sit tight and get the arguably better player.

[IGotWorms 3,302]

Almost definitely sitting this year

[Ray_T 587]

4 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Almost definitely sitting this year

for sure.  most players dont make any impact in  a Belichek offense in year 1.

Not unless there is an injury and there is no other choice.

[weepaws 2,452]

Just have a feeling he’s going to play a lot this next season. 

[polecatt 399]

I think this is a good landing spot for him.

It's probably the closest thing the NFL has to Alabama.

From a fantasy perspective though, I don't see him being relevant this season. He's probably not starting. Cam will and I think he'll play just good enough to keep his job most of the season. There's always a good chance Cam will miss games from injury, and I think Mac will get some time when he does, but Stidham may too. 

Even if he does get to where he's starting at some point, he's probably not gonna be somebody you want in your line up unless you're really in a bind.

For dynasty. IF you're high on him, I guess you can stash him on the bench, but I don't think that's necessary. He will probably be available down the road if you really want him on your team next season.

[weepaws 2,452]

In redraft any of those Qb that play for the Patriots would only be worthy of a stream play now and than imo. 

 

[AxeElf 787]

4 hours ago, polecatt said:

It's probably the closest thing the NFL has to Alabama.

Well, they've dropped off a lot in the last couple of years, but I wouldn't say the Patriots are the worst team in the NFL.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

On 5/3/2021 at 5:28 PM, IGotWorms said:

Almost definitely sitting this year

 

On 5/3/2021 at 5:33 PM, Ray_T said:

for sure.  most players dont make any impact in  a Belichek offense in year 1.

Not unless there is an injury and there is no other choice.

I think it'll all depend on what Belichick thinks the team is/should be.  If he thinks he has a team that can make the playoffs but Newton is making it harder for that to happen... and starts out like he did last year, I can Jones replacing him mid-season and possibly sooner if Newton is that bad.

[polecatt 399]

9 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Well, they've dropped off a lot in the last couple of years, but I wouldn't say the Patriots are the worst team in the NFL.

They're about middle of the pack or so, but like Alabama, they are a well oiled machine in how they run things

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

48 minutes ago, polecatt said:

They're about middle of the pack or so, but like Alabama, they are a well oiled machine in how they run things

...or, did they just have a great QB to make it look like that?  (New England... not Alabama)

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

They're about middle of the pack or so, but like Alabama, they are a well oiled machine in how they run things

I'm glad you didn't say they ran things like a fully-inflated football.

[Kopy 489]

Mac is Cam spelled backwards. This whole scenario was DESTINY!

 

[Kopy 489]

And,

If Mac can throw opposite Cam. At least we know he'll hit a WR 10 yards out. 

DESTINY!

 

[AxeElf 787]

43 minutes ago, Kopy said:

Mac is Cam spelled backwards. This whole scenario was DESTINY!

Heh...  but it's really Cameron and Michael.  The "Mac" comes from his middle name, McCorkle.

[polecatt 399]

6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

...or, did they just have a great QB to make it look like that?  (New England... not Alabama)

Adam Vinatieri disagrees

[polecatt 399]

5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I'm glad you didn't say they ran things like a fully-inflated football.

We know they don't use those in New England, lol

[Ray_T 587]

16 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

I think it'll all depend on what Belichick thinks the team is/should be.  If he thinks he has a team that can make the playoffs but Newton is making it harder for that to happen... and starts out like he did last year, I can Jones replacing him mid-season and possibly sooner if Newton is that bad.

well, Belichick will likely be  tested this year.

I truly think if he does not feel the  kid is ready, Stidham will play.

we shall see.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

15 hours ago, polecatt said:

Adam Vinatieri disagrees

LOL, was he the one Manning called a "Drunkin' kicker"?  

[polecatt 399]

No, that was Mike Vanderjagt

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

No, that was Mike Vanderjagt

That's right.  That was pretty funny.

[polecatt 399]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's right.  That was pretty funny.

Yeah it was, lol

Funny thing about it, Vanderjagt was the most accurate kicker in NFL history at the time, and after that, he kind of went to crap

[IGotWorms 3,302]

15 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, Belichick will likely be  tested this year.

I truly think if he does not feel the  kid is ready, Stidham will play.

we shall see.

Stidham doesn’t have it

[weepaws 2,452]

I think M Jones is going to play early and often.  

 

[Ray_T 587]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think M Jones is going to play early and often.  

 

I think that depends on a couple of things.

1) Cam Newtons health.

2) his own progress in learning the offense.

if he doesnt learn the offense well enough, it doesnt matter where he was drafted. he wont play.

Now hes supposed to be a smart guy, so maybe it wont be an issue.   But that is not for us to evaluate.   That's big B.

if he plays it means one of two things:  1) newton could be hurt.   or 2) hes a whole lot better than advertised and actually has passed Newton on the depth chart because hes THAT good.

if its the latter, I'd bet it is possible hes gonna be REALLY good and a lot of teams will regret not picking him.
 

[weepaws 2,452]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I think that depends on a couple of things.

1) Cam Newtons health.

2) his own progress in learning the offense.

if he doesnt learn the offense well enough, it doesnt matter where he was drafted. he wont play.

Now hes supposed to be a smart guy, so maybe it wont be an issue.   But that is not for us to evaluate.   That's big B.

if he plays it means one of two things:  1) newton could be hurt.   or 2) hes a whole lot better than advertised and actually has passed Newton on the depth chart because hes THAT good.

if its the latter, I'd bet it is possible hes gonna be REALLY good and a lot of teams will regret not picking him.
 

Exactly 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

15 hours ago, polecatt said:

Yeah it was, lol

Funny thing about it, Vanderjagt was the most accurate kicker in NFL history at the time, and after that, he kind of went to crap

Yeah, but he was in his 30's though.  Even for kickers, that's old.

[kutulu 1,542]

On 5/5/2021 at 9:26 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

 

I think it'll all depend on what Belichick thinks the team is/should be.  If he thinks he has a team that can make the playoffs but Newton is making it harder for that to happen... and starts out like he did last year, I can Jones replacing him mid-season and possibly sooner if Newton is that bad.

Cam didn't start out too bad last year, 6 TDs (4 on the ground) and 2 picks first 3 games. It was only after he got the covid did he start to stink it up.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

1 minute ago, kutulu said:

Cam didn't start out too bad last year, 6 Yes (4 on the ground) and 2 picks first 3 games. It was only after he got the covid did start to stink it up.

I'm not buying the Covid angle.  Other players had it and to my knowledge, I don't remember any playing that terrible afterwards.

[IGotWorms 3,302]

It’s pretty simple, who gives them the best chance to win. Belichick and Kraft didn’t drop $160 million this off-season for a rebuild. They intend to get back to the playoffs and whichever QB is most likely to pull that off will be the guy.

And that’s almost certainly Cam. There’s a reason no rookie QB has ever won a Super Bowl. Mac needs to learn for a year and if he’s any good then 2022 will be his.

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

It’s pretty simple, who gives them the best chance to win. Belichick and Kraft didn’t drop $160 million this off-season for a rebuild. They intend to get back to the playoffs and whichever QB is most likely to pull that off will be the guy.

And that’s almost certainly Cam. There’s a reason no rookie QB has ever won a Super Bowl. Mac needs to learn for a year and if he’s any good then 2022 will be his.

I think there is no question they want to be competitive.

Newton is there to start, but his durability (and age) are catching up with him.   Running QB's tend to have shorter careers due to the extra hits they take over the course of a career compared to pocket passers.   To that end, he is only a short term solution.

if we get to a point where the pats have either clinched a playoff spot or been eliminated from playoff contention,  They will give Mac the Reins and let him test drive the offense.  But I think as long as the team is competitive and Newton is healthy, he will start.

only exception is if Mac is so good they cant justify not starting him or so bad they dont want him on the field.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

4 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

It’s pretty simple, who gives them the best chance to win. Belichick and Kraft didn’t drop $160 million this off-season for a rebuild. They intend to get back to the playoffs and whichever QB is most likely to pull that off will be the guy.

And that’s almost certainly Cam. There’s a reason no rookie QB has ever won a Super Bowl. Mac needs to learn for a year and if he’s any good then 2022 will be his.

Come on, let's be honest here... they're not winning a SB with Newton either.  I think the Pats just want to be competitive.  Newton might be able to do that, as could Jones.  Does Newton give them the better chance?  Sure, but that doesn't mean that Jones couldn't do it either.

[weepaws 2,452]

Would agree,, the Pats aren’t winning a playoff slot with Cam, nor will we be seeing them in this next super bowl, they aren’t a super bowl contender, like the Bucs last season. 

Now if Brady was still their Qb they would be a super bowl contender. 

Im going on record saying, M Jones will be the Qb that takes the most snaps as their starting Qb this next season, and not the Cam man.  

 

[DrG 94]

Mac the Knife will be the starter by mid season.

[Ray_T 587]

On 5/7/2021 at 1:23 PM, weepaws said:

Would agree,, the Pats aren’t winning a playoff slot with Cam, nor will we be seeing them in this next super bowl, they aren’t a super bowl contender, like the Bucs last season. 

Now if Brady was still their Qb they would be a super bowl contender. 

Im going on record saying, M Jones will be the Qb that takes the most snaps as their starting Qb this next season, and not the Cam man.  

 

I think for this to happen, Newton really has to get  injured or stink the joint out early in the year or Mac has to blow the doors off and show hes THAT good.

Not saying it cant happen.  I'd say the odds are about 30% With my money being that it happens due to injury (if it happens at all)

I think its more likely at the 9 game mark if the team is at less than .500 win % the odds of Mac playing goes up by about 10% with each loss from this point on.(give or take)  Of course, This also depends on how far out of the playoffs they are and how good Mac is looking in practice.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

21 hours ago, DrG said:

Mac the Knife will be the starter by mid season.

I think that's possible.  The schedule comes out on Wednesday, it'll be interesting to see how their season starts.  If they have a bunch of teams with new/troublesome QB issues early on like Carolina, Houston, Jets, Jags, & Saints, they could get out to a good start and Cam may be able to hold the job for most, if not all, of the season.  But, if they start out with Buffalo, Tampa, Indy, Dallas, & Miami, Jones could be in mid-season as you mentioned.

[weepaws 2,452]

Sounds like M Jones is even up with Newton. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

The Patriots, as it turns out, has a very easy schedule and favorable for Newton.  In their first 9 games, they get the Jets twice, the Saints, Texans, and Panthers.  Even with losses to Miami, Tampa, Dallas, and LA, they could still be 5-4.  That should be enough to warrant Newton hanging on until their Week 14 bye.  In their next 4 games (before the bye), Cleveland, Atlanta, Tennessee, and Buffalo... those games will determine if Newton is the starter in Week 15 for the last 4.  If they're 6-7 (or even 5-8), I think it's Mac Jones under center.  If Newton can pull off two wins in that 4-game stretch and be 7-6 heading into the bye, I don't think Jones starts any games until they're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  Could be after the next two games (@ Indy and vs Buffalo), where they could be 7-8 or worse.  The AFC looks to be pretty deep this year, so I think a team who's 7-8 will likely be eliminated.

[IGotWorms 3,302]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Sounds like M Jones is even up with Newton. 

I wouldn’t go that far, not yet anyway. Reports have been promising but he’s still a rookie