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Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Rashod Bateman, Ravens

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Team Fit: The search for a receiver to a dependable alpha receiver has been an ongoing one, although Bateman is a talented enough player to bring it to an end. The Minnesota product is an elite route-runner who showed surprising 4.39 speed at his pro day. The 2019 Big Ten Receiver of the Year has no issue working over the middle and does some of his best work after the catch (36 broken tackles on 147 career catches). The 21-year-old disappointed with his blocking ability - a big deal playing for Baltimore - and sported a career drop rate of 8.7 percent. On the plus side, Bateman does profile favorably to Keenan Allen and is dealing with many of the same supposed "shortcomings" as the Chargers' stud did coming out of college. More than likely, Bateman's career will mirror that of Corey Davis or Jerricho Cotchery.

What does it mean in redraft? WR5. It's hard to imagine Bateman will enjoy much immediate success competing for targets with Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins among others. The Ravens' run-heavy offense figures to limit his chances for fantasy success even more.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

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Now that Bateman went in my draft (I missed out on him), I'm free to profess my love for his game.  Dude creates so much separation even Lamar should be able to hit him.

He was one of my favorite players this year.  I think he's going to be a really productive player for many years.

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7 hours ago, nobody said:

Now that Bateman went in my draft (I missed out on him), I'm free to profess my love for his game.  Dude creates so much separation even Lamar should be able to hit him.

He was one of my favorite players this year.  I think he's going to be a really productive player for many years.

Same. He was my #2 WR. Really bummed he went to Baltimore. But much like AJ Brown a couple years back. (Some I know we're scared to take him because he went to Tennessee). I think his talent will trump situation.

 

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I liked what I read and saw (highlights), of Bateman.  He was a guy that I hoped would slip in the draft.  Not only was he a 1st round pick, he was taken by the Ravens.  I went from targeting him to putting him on my DND list.  Sucks.  He'll be wasted in Baltimore.

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I liked what I read and saw (highlights), of Bateman.  He was a guy that I hoped would slip in the draft.  Not only was he a 1st round pick, he was taken by the Ravens.  I went from targeting him to putting him on my DND list.  Sucks.  He'll be wasted in Baltimore.

In a perfect world. He has a crappy year 1. Not because of his play, but by his usage. Whoever drafted him gets disgruntled, and we can buy low next year. (Dynasty league speaking).

 

 

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Not a good redraft investment 

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2 hours ago, Kopy said:

In a perfect world. He has a crappy year 1. Not because of his play, but by his usage. Whoever drafted him gets disgruntled, and we can buy low next year. (Dynasty league speaking).

 

 

Yeah, that's about right.  The only way to get a return on investment is to not invest a whole lot.  Until they start throwing in Baltimore, WR's aren't going to be valuable.  Even if you believe in Brown, he had about 25% of the teams (406), targets last year.  Add in Bateman and they'll both get very little.

At this point, it's clear that Jackson is a 2-read QB.  Brown had 100 targets and Andrews had 88... the next closest player was Snead at 48.  I can see Brown and Bateman getting about 70-75 targets with Andrews dropping to around 50 and Boykins being in the low 30's low 20's.  It's hard to be fantasy relevant when you get 4.5 targets per game.

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In dynasty, one piece of advice I would give is just draft talent and don't worry about situation.  I've made that mistake a lot in the past only to see guys that I absolutely knew were good (like Bateman) find a way to get on the field and produce.  

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10 hours ago, nobody said:

In dynasty, one piece of advice I would give is just draft talent and don't worry about situation.  I've made that mistake a lot in the past only to see guys that I absolutely knew were good (like Bateman) find a way to get on the field and produce.  

Agreed. If someone's "your guy". Grab him. I've always felt it was easier getting over being wrong but taking your player. Than it was not taking him and they end up good. If your player busts, you move on. If someone is good and you somehow talk yourself out of taking him. Man that lingers.

 

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I generally agree, but the Baltimore situation is different.  They're not going to throw the ball.  There just won't be the volume.  Those WR's are only going to max out at 90 targets.  If they catch 75% of those, you're looking at 68 receptions and probably around 850 yards.  Let's say he gets 6 Td's, that's not even 200 fantasy points.  You're looking at a WR as an upside.  I think the most likely scenario is 45 receptions, 600 yards, and 3 TD's.

This wouldn't bother me if he were on a team like Washington, Carolina, or Detroit because you expect a new QB next year.  Jackson isn't going anywhere and I don't see the passing game getting more involved.  I think 400 to 425 pass attempts are where they're going to be.  Simply, there's no volume.

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2 hours ago, Kopy said:

Agreed. If someone's "your guy". Grab him. I've always felt it was easier getting over being wrong but taking your player. Than it was not taking him and they end up good. If your player busts, you move on. If someone is good and you somehow talk yourself out of taking him. Man that lingers.

 

Michael Thomas for me.  I drafted not 1 but 2 players over him that I absolutely knew weren't as good as him.  Josh Doctson at 1.02 and Kenneth Dixon at 1.05.  I made two mistakes there.  I knew he was good and didn't just draft him since they had Colston and Brandin Cooks at the time, and I let ADP factor into my decision.  I thought Thomas might get back to me in the 2nd, so I tried to wait on him.  That rookie class was pretty bad too.  Zeke, Michael Thomas, Derek Henry, and Tyreek Hill, and almost no one else that really was a difference maker, so getting Thomas would've made a pretty big difference.

Now I don't mess around.  I just take the guys I think are the best players.   I've drafted CeeDee Lamb, Diontae Johnson, Deebo Samuel.  Shoot, I even drafted James Robinson last May just because I liked how he ran in college while Fournette and Ryquell Armstead were still on the team

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If the issue is the number of weapons ahead of a player, then I'm in total agreement that you take the guy anyway... but not when it's a QB/team philosophy issue.  Baltimore isn't going to all of a sudden go from 400 pass attempts to 500 or more.  I just don't think that's going to happen.  I think Jackson is there for the long haul, so I don't see how Bateman's situation will change during his rookie contract.  In a dynasty draft, I'd see him as a 3rd/4th round pick.  In a keeper league, a 10th round (WR5), pick.  In re-draft leagues... thrown dart/waiver wire.

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Taking talent did bite me in the ass with Tyler Johnson last year.  That guy is good, but they have too many good receivers.

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Depends on investment and league.  If you were in a redraft league, you were foolish no matter where you drafted him.  If you're in a keeper or dynasty league, you weren't foolish if you took him later in the draft, but were foolish if you took him early.  Johnson could be a starter next year.  Brady might retire and with that, Antonio Brown is gone.  Godwin probably signs elsewhere and Johnson steps in opposite of Evans.  Long term, he might pan out because the offensive system supports that.

 

I warned you last year about him: "Tampa's roster construction is set up for a 1-year run and "hope" for a 2nd year.  I don't think anyone should make long-term fantasy decisions based on the current (or even next years), roster.  If you're in a keeper or dynasty league, you're playing with fire if you spend any premium picks or roster spots on young players."

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4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I warned you last year about him: "Tampa's roster construction is set up for a 1-year run and "hope" for a 2nd year.  I don't think anyone should make long-term fantasy decisions based on the current (or even next years), roster.  If you're in a keeper or dynasty league, you're playing with fire if you spend any premium picks or roster spots on young players."

Thank God you were here to warn us of the risks inherent in spending premium picks on young players.

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Also these are dynasty leagues, so most of the picks are young players in a rookie draft.

For what it's worth I draft Tyler 33rd overall.  Only one other player that made a difference last year was drafted after that.

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4 hours ago, nobody said:

Also these are dynasty leagues, so most of the picks are young players in a rookie draft.

For what it's worth I draft Tyler 33rd overall.  Only one other player that made a difference last year was drafted after that.

Re-read the quote, it was a Tampa's young players, meaning Vaughn or Johnson.  Your post that I responded to, you were talking about Johnson.

I also wouldn't call pick 33 of a rookie draft a "premium pick" either, hence, I don't think the phrase "bite me in the ass" is warranted.  Johnson should've been drafted with hopes of paying off dividends in 2022 or 2023.

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Tyler Johnson was a 5th round draft pick, the 161st player selected. He was the WR19 off the board. The team that drafted him had two star receivers already in place and added a third before the season started. Who in their right mind expected Johnson to do anything last year?

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Tyler Johnson was a 5th round draft pick, the 161st player selected. He was the WR19 off the board. The team that drafted him had two star receivers already in place and added a third before the season started. Who in their right mind expected Johnson to do anything last year?

Apparently he @nobody did because he said picking Johnson bit him in the ass.  :dunno:

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The entire point of drafting for talent and not situation is the player isn't expected to do anything because of their situation and then they find a way to get on the field.

I actually drafted him because I expected Evans would leave this year and he would come in, but if they didn't sign AB, when they got hit with injuries, even he would've made it on the field and he would've been great.

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