Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Kyle Trask, Buccaneers

[The Football Guru 211]

Team Fit: Almost a mirror image physically of Mason Rudolph, Trask is the rare quarterback prospect in this draft who is built to take a pounding (6-5, 236) but not overly mobile. Where he differs from Rudolph is his ability as a passer; Trask has a good feel for the nuances of the position such as timing, trajectory and touch, and he has no qualms about throwing into tight windows. How much of that last part was a function of having high-end talents like Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney to throw to is up for debate, and it speaks to how important that duo was to Trask as Florida scored a mere 20 points against a middling Oklahoma defense with those playmakers unavailable in Trask's final game. Although he did run on a semi-regular basis in college, he offers very little as a rushing threat. On the plus side, Trask is a solid decision-maker and ball distributor - a point worth highlighting considering 2019 and 2020 were really the first two times in his high school or college career that he was considered a starter. He projects as a long-term NFL backup in the Chase Daniel mode, and that figures to be how he will begin his career behind Tom Brady. It is at least mildly interesting Tampa Bay opted to go with the prospect - after Mac Jones - that most resembles Brady.

What does it mean in redraft? Almost nothing. Trask will wear a visor and carry a clipboard for as long as Brady is on the field.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[weepaws 2,452]

And get paid in doing so 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

Pissed away that pick.  

[Ray_T 587]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Pissed away that pick.  

I dont know about that.  his scouting report looks ok.  his biggest mistake is coming of age in a year when the draft was deep in quality QB's.

a year or two learning behind Brady and with some good coaching it is possible he could emerge as a starter in a couple years when Brady finally hangs em up.

granted at the place he was drafted I'm sure the team would be happy if he just developed into a very good backup.

[The Football Guru 211]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Pissed away that pick.  

I was pleasantly surprised in the few games I used to analyze him, but I admittedly didn't watch the Oklahoma bowl game. I stick by what I said earlier though, I see a player more in the Chase Daniel long-term backup mold than Brady's successor.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

8 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

I was pleasantly surprised in the few games I used to analyze him, but I admittedly didn't watch the Oklahoma bowl game. I stick by what I said earlier though, I see a player more in the Chase Daniel long-term backup mold than Brady's successor.

Oh, I absolutely would agree... that's why I said what I did.  You don't take a 4-year (at best), backup QB in the second round.  That's akin to taking a kicker.  Not even sure that Trask's ceiling is better than Gabbert's floor.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I dont know about that.  his scouting report looks ok.  his biggest mistake is coming of age in a year when the draft was deep in quality QB's.

a year or two learning behind Brady and with some good coaching it is possible he could emerge as a starter in a couple years when Brady finally hangs em up.

granted at the place he was drafted I'm sure the team would be happy if he just developed into a very good backup.

I think his ceiling is a backup QB.  You don't take those in the second round.

[tanatastic 2,061]

They must see something in him that others don’t. When your QB is 44 it’s fine to start drafting new ones. I said Tom wasn’t human like 3 seasons ago, now it’s just getting silly.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

I'm sure they do, but that doesn't mean I'm optimistic.  Let's be fair, neither of these guys (Jason Licht - Bucs GM or Arians), are known for finding and/or developing talent.  The only QB that Licht ever drafted was Jameis Winston.  While he was very talented, he was a terrible decision maker, had terrible pocket presence, his footwork was awful, and was rather immature.  In 5 years, he never really improved in any of those areas.  He had Mike Glennon and Ryan Griffen on the team as well.  Neither ever had any signs of improvement.  He also never felt it necessary to draft a replacement for Winston.  After seeing Winston suck for 3 seasons, he could've went into the 2018 draft looking for a QB.  The Bucs had the 7th pick that year, they traded it to Buffalo who took Allen.  The Bucs took Vita Vea at #12.  I don't care how good Vea is, they lost that deal.  Here was the net result of that trade...

Bills got: Josh Allen & Austin Proehl (7th round pick that didn't make the team - but... who cares, they got Josh Allen)

Bucs got: Vita Vea (looks to be a great DT), MJ Stewart (pick #53 - who played 2 years and was cut... not with Cleveland), & Carlton Davis (starting DB).

Ask any Bucs fan (prior to getting Brady), and every single one of them would've rather had Josh Allen.  Honestly, I bet more than half would still say that now, even after winning the Super Bowl.

Anyway, what QB did Arians develop?  Roethlisberger was drafted in '04 and won a Super Bowl the following year.  Arians wasn't his OC until '07.  Sure, he was with the team, but he was the WR coach.  I don't think you can really make an argument that Roethlisberger was better from '07 to '11 than he was at any other part in his career.  After Pittsburgh, he went to Indy where he had Andrew Luck for 1 year.  He then went to Arizona where he had Carson Palmer, who was an already established QB.  While there, the only QB he ever drafted, is now a TE in Washington... Logan Thomas.

Neither have a history of drafting and developing a QB.  I'm not even asking for them to have found a star... just a serviceable starter.  Neither have done that.  Does it mean they can't?  No... it just means that I can't give them the benefit of the doubt.  Here's the thing.  Let's say that Trask becomes an elite backup.  The best in the NFL and best in NFL history.  So what?  They used a 2nd round pick on him?  Not particularly thrilled with that.  I'd much rather them have used that pick on player who's more likely to help at another position.  There are plenty of FA's that the Bucs will have after this season.  On defense, JPP, Suh, and William Gholston are likely to be gone after this season and Godwin, Jensen, Gronk, Howard, and virtually their entire backfield on offense.  Finding replacements for any of them would have been preferable.  Ian Book could've been taken in the 4th round or Sam Ehlinger in the 6th if they wanted a backup.

To me, this was a waste of a draft pick.  Look, I hope I'm wrong, but nothing from any of the so called experts tells me that his ceiling is at least a "solid" starter.  All think he's a backup.  Now, how many of them developed an NFL QB?   Probably none... which puts them at the same number that Licht and Arians developed.  Now I did hear Mark Dominik (former Bucs GM), on NFL Radio say that Trask could be a decent starter one day.  That's the guy who drafted Josh Freeman and Mike Glennon.  Don't know how much stock I put in his opinion.

[Ray_T 587]

6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm sure they do, but that doesn't mean I'm optimistic.  Let's be fair, neither of these guys (Jason Licht - Bucs GM or Arians), are known for finding and/or developing talent.  The only QB that Licht ever drafted was Jameis Winston.  While he was very talented, he was a terrible decision maker, had terrible pocket presence, his footwork was awful, and was rather immature.  In 5 years, he never really improved in any of those areas.  He had Mike Glennon and Ryan Griffen on the team as well.  Neither ever had any signs of improvement.  He also never felt it necessary to draft a replacement for Winston.  After seeing Winston suck for 3 seasons, he could've went into the 2018 draft looking for a QB.  The Bucs had the 7th pick that year, they traded it to Buffalo who took Allen.  The Bucs took Vita Vea at #12.  I don't care how good Vea is, they lost that deal.  Here was the net result of that trade...

Bills got: Josh Allen & Austin Proehl (7th round pick that didn't make the team - but... who cares, they got Josh Allen)

Bucs got: Vita Vea (looks to be a great DT), MJ Stewart (pick #53 - who played 2 years and was cut... not with Cleveland), & Carlton Davis (starting DB).

Ask any Bucs fan (prior to getting Brady), and every single one of them would've rather had Josh Allen.  Honestly, I bet more than half would still say that now, even after winning the Super Bowl.

Anyway, what QB did Arians develop?  Roethlisberger was drafted in '04 and won a Super Bowl the following year.  Arians wasn't his OC until '07.  Sure, he was with the team, but he was the WR coach.  I don't think you can really make an argument that Roethlisberger was better from '07 to '11 than he was at any other part in his career.  After Pittsburgh, he went to Indy where he had Andrew Luck for 1 year.  He then went to Arizona where he had Carson Palmer, who was an already established QB.  While there, the only QB he ever drafted, is now a TE in Washington... Logan Thomas.

Neither have a history of drafting and developing a QB.  I'm not even asking for them to have found a star... just a serviceable starter.  Neither have done that.  Does it mean they can't?  No... it just means that I can't give them the benefit of the doubt.  Here's the thing.  Let's say that Trask becomes an elite backup.  The best in the NFL and best in NFL history.  So what?  They used a 2nd round pick on him?  Not particularly thrilled with that.  I'd much rather them have used that pick on player who's more likely to help at another position.  There are plenty of FA's that the Bucs will have after this season.  On defense, JPP, Suh, and William Gholston are likely to be gone after this season and Godwin, Jensen, Gronk, Howard, and virtually their entire backfield on offense.  Finding replacements for any of them would have been preferable.  Ian Book could've been taken in the 4th round or Sam Ehlinger in the 6th if they wanted a backup.

To me, this was a waste of a draft pick.  Look, I hope I'm wrong, but nothing from any of the so called experts tells me that his ceiling is at least a "solid" starter.  All think he's a backup.  Now, how many of them developed an NFL QB?   Probably none... which puts them at the same number that Licht and Arians developed.  Now I did hear Mark Dominik (former Bucs GM), on NFL Radio say that Trask could be a decent starter one day.  That's the guy who drafted Josh Freeman and Mike Glennon.  Don't know how much stock I put in his opinion.

ok at least I now see where you are coming from on this.

you are suggesting that Arians hasnt develped any QB.   That does not mean he doesnt have that ability.

so your issue is more along the player development of the coaching staff rather than the talent of the player.

 

Perhaps he wasnt involved as the lead guy, but he saw how others did it in the case of Rothlisberger.  While he wasnt the lead dog there, all the coordinators need to work together with an offense.  he saw how it was done.

another thing I think you are underestimating is the Brady effect.  Hes all about team and helping others on the team to be all they can be.   I fully believe he will mentor the kid in a way that Arians (and Id argue anybody else) cannot.

I had only actually seen the guy play in 2 games.  I'll be honest he looked impressive in those two games.  Very impressive in the last one I watched.  I did not watch his poor performances so I cannot speak to those.   Then when I reviewed the scouting report there is a lot about this scout report that reminds me of Dak Prescotts report coming out of college. 

Biggest fault with dak is that his processing speed wasnt quite fast enough he sometimes wasnt good under pressure.   But he came in with what may have been the best O line in the NFL so that never became an issue and Dak was able to develop his game in a way he may not have been able to on any other team.

he had the time to speed up that processing speed because the line could give him an extra second or so on each play.

at the end of the day, Trask has the same potential but we dont know how he will respond to the increase in playing speed.   some people elevate their game, some do not.  but Seeing how Brady does it and watching how he does it and having the ability to pick his brain for tips on how to be better.    This could potentially be invaluable for him in terms of developing as a player.

To that end I dont think the choice is a waste unless the coaching staff chooses not to do anything to help or develop him.

We dont know how the kid will respond.   and I would argue most QB selections at the draft table are lotto picks anyhow.  in this case they are not risking a first round pick and they have a player they can potentially develop into a starter.

more important than that, the backup QB is on a rookie contract.  they dont have to pay 3-8 mil which seems to be the going rate for solid backup QB's.  This was done to allow them to spend more to keep the team together.   I figure the superbowl window is likely only open one or two more years with Brady at the helm.   So I am thinking this is the compromise that allows them to pay less at a position that (in theory) should never see the field and pay more elsewhere.

Either way, we will find out.    from what I have seen and read, I think the kid has a shot.  perhaps as good a shot as any second round pick out there.  But we wont know for at least a couple years if he has what it takes.   But if hes being mentored by the best, I would say he has a shot.  I dont think its a wasted pick.

That doesnt necessarily mean he will become Dak.  it just means he has the same tools in the toolbox.  How he develops and learns will determine if he can progress and improve as a player.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

16 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

ok at least I now see where you are coming from on this.

you are suggesting that Arians hasnt develped any QB.   That does not mean he doesnt have that ability.

so your issue is more along the player development of the coaching staff rather than the talent of the player.

 

Perhaps he wasnt involved as the lead guy, but he saw how others did it in the case of Rothlisberger.  While he wasnt the lead dog there, all the coordinators need to work together with an offense.  he saw how it was done.

another thing I think you are underestimating is the Brady effect.  Hes all about team and helping others on the team to be all they can be.   I fully believe he will mentor the kid in a way that Arians (and Id argue anybody else) cannot.

I had only actually seen the guy play in 2 games.  I'll be honest he looked impressive in those two games.  Very impressive in the last one I watched.  I did not watch his poor performances so I cannot speak to those.   Then when I reviewed the scouting report there is a lot about this scout report that reminds me of Dak Prescotts report coming out of college. 

Biggest fault with dak is that his processing speed wasnt quite fast enough he sometimes wasnt good under pressure.   But he came in with what may have been the best O line in the NFL so that never became an issue and Dak was able to develop his game in a way he may not have been able to on any other team.

he had the time to speed up that processing speed because the line could give him an extra second or so on each play.

at the end of the day, Trask has the same potential but we dont know how he will respond to the increase in playing speed.   some people elevate their game, some do not.  but Seeing how Brady does it and watching how he does it and having the ability to pick his brain for tips on how to be better.    This could potentially be invaluable for him in terms of developing as a player.

To that end I dont think the choice is a waste unless the coaching staff chooses not to do anything to help or develop him.

We dont know how the kid will respond.   and I would argue most QB selections at the draft table are lotto picks anyhow.  in this case they are not risking a first round pick and they have a player they can potentially develop into a starter.

more important than that, the backup QB is on a rookie contract.  they dont have to pay 3-8 mil which seems to be the going rate for solid backup QB's.  This was done to allow them to spend more to keep the team together.   I figure the superbowl window is likely only open one or two more years with Brady at the helm.   So I am thinking this is the compromise that allows them to pay less at a position that (in theory) should never see the field and pay more elsewhere.

Either way, we will find out.    from what I have seen and read, I think the kid has a shot.  perhaps as good a shot as any second round pick out there.  But we wont know for at least a couple years if he has what it takes.   But if hes being mentored by the best, I would say he has a shot.  I dont think its a wasted pick.

That doesnt necessarily mean he will become Dak.  it just means he has the same tools in the toolbox.  How he develops and learns will determine if he can progress and improve as a player.

 

Part is player development and part is scouting analysis.  Virtually every pundit/article I've read said the kid is likely to be a backup.  A few think he'll be a "serviceable" starter.  Given the lack of track record that Licht and Arians have, I'm not confident that the mass majority of analysts are wrong.  If the majority of those people said something to the effect that he's likely to be a solid starter one day, then I wouldn't have a problem.  It just seems like the overwhelming majority seem to think Trask will be a backup.  To me, when you have 2 people leading the charge (Licht & Arians), with no track record of development and the consensus opinion is "backup", that's a waste of a pick in the 2nd round.

Now, having said all that, I firmly believe that if you feel that there's a player on the board that will be "the guy", in this case, a "franchise QB", you take him.  Period.  It doesn't matter what anyone else thinks, you take the guy you believe in.  That's where I fall back on the lack of evidence that Licht and Arians could develop him.  I assure you, I don't discount the possibility that they could be right... I'm just skeptical.

[Ray_T 587]

32 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Part is player development and part is scouting analysis.  Virtually every pundit/article I've read said the kid is likely to be a backup.  A few think he'll be a "serviceable" starter.  Given the lack of track record that Licht and Arians have, I'm not confident that the mass majority of analysts are wrong.  If the majority of those people said something to the effect that he's likely to be a solid starter one day, then I wouldn't have a problem.  It just seems like the overwhelming majority seem to think Trask will be a backup.  To me, when you have 2 people leading the charge (Licht & Arians), with no track record of development and the consensus opinion is "backup", that's a waste of a pick in the 2nd round.

Now, having said all that, I firmly believe that if you feel that there's a player on the board that will be "the guy", in this case, a "franchise QB", you take him.  Period.  It doesn't matter what anyone else thinks, you take the guy you believe in.  That's where I fall back on the lack of evidence that Licht and Arians could develop him.  I assure you, I don't discount the possibility that they could be right... I'm just skeptical.

these are fair comments.

hes definitely a guy who I would say is on the cusp of startability if you believe the scouting reports.

It is a fine line between high end backup or low end starter.

all I am saying is I wouldnt discount the pick as a waste yet.

we honestly wont know for sure one way or another for at least a couple of years.    I do respect and appreciate your comments.

Id be surprised if anyone on this board knows more about this team than you do.   Initially your comments surprised me, but now I understand them a bit better.

Have a good one.

[Donkey 34]

On 5/3/2021 at 4:36 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Part is player development and part is scouting analysis.  Virtually every pundit/article I've read said the kid is likely to be a backup.  A few think he'll be a "serviceable" starter.  Given the lack of track record that Licht and Arians have, I'm not confident that the mass majority of analysts are wrong.  If the majority of those people said something to the effect that he's likely to be a solid starter one day, then I wouldn't have a problem.  It just seems like the overwhelming majority seem to think Trask will be a backup.  To me, when you have 2 people leading the charge (Licht & Arians), with no track record of development and the consensus opinion is "backup", that's a waste of a pick in the 2nd round.

Now, having said all that, I firmly believe that if you feel that there's a player on the board that will be "the guy", in this case, a "franchise QB", you take him.  Period.  It doesn't matter what anyone else thinks, you take the guy you believe in.  That's where I fall back on the lack of evidence that Licht and Arians could develop him.  I assure you, I don't discount the possibility that they could be right... I'm just skeptical.

I'm reading the same comments about all 3 QBs taken at that spot.  I think teams draft a QB there figuring he's most likely going to be a decent backup, and maybe they'll get lucky and hit the lottery. If he's just a decent backup they save some money not having to pay a vet.

[Ray_T 587]

8 hours ago, Donkey said:

I'm reading the same comments about all 3 QBs taken at that spot.  I think teams draft a QB there figuring he's most likely going to be a decent backup, and maybe they'll get lucky and hit the lottery. If he's just a decent backup they save some money not having to pay a vet.

you have to take a chance sometimes.

sometimes its one of those moves you make because there is pressure from ownership to address the position.  You dont wanna look like you have done nothing and there are no decent QB's worth a first round pick at the spot you are drafting in.   so you use a pick in round 2 or 3 on the best prospect available and hope hes the next Tom Brady or Dak Prescott.

Odds of a 2nd round pick becoming a starter are historically not THAT bad.    Carr, Dak were both 2nd round picks if my memory is correct and those are just the ones that are top of mind.   There are likely others too.  Now that I think of it... weren't Brees and cousins  2nd rounders too?

so its not entirely out of the question that some of these second tier QB's could end up eventually being a starter.  Given the depth in this years QB class I'd almost bet on at least one of them becoming a player.

I see to recall Dak was not really thought of as a player with a big time NFL future at the time he was selected, but he looked great in camp and when Romo got hurt he went in and showed he could play.   Granted all the pieces were in place.  great O line. solid WR's and a good run game.   That certainly helped.

Either way, the pick can pan out with the right support and in the right situation.

but the kid usually needs more breaks to go his way for things to work out than a first rounder does.

 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

14 hours ago, Donkey said:

I'm reading the same comments about all 3 QBs taken at that spot.  I think teams draft a QB there figuring he's most likely going to be a decent backup, and maybe they'll get lucky and hit the lottery. If he's just a decent backup they save some money not having to pay a vet.

I don't really have a problem with that approach... I just have a problem with executing that with a 2nd round pick.  That's all.