Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Josh Palmer, Chargers

[The Football Guru 211]

Team Fit: The Chargers became dangerously thin at receiver near the end of last season after Keenan Allen and Mike Williams got hurt, but there's more to this pick than that. Williams is in the final year of his contract and has struggled to live up to his first-round draft stock because of injury. Palmer is quite possibly his long-term replacement. The native of Ontario, Canada is not unlike Williams in that he does most of his damage downfield and in contested-catch situations. While Palmer never caught more than 34 passes or topped 484 receiving yards, he did flash the kind of potential that he could take over as a starter opposite Allen as early as 2022. How so? Three of his four touchdown catches this season came against high-end cornerbacks in Patrick Surtain, Tyson Campbell and DJ Daniel. The quarterback play at Tennessee was not particularly good, so he will benefit greatly from having Justin Herbert slinging him the rock.

What does it mean in redraft? WR5 initially. Williams has not able to stay healthy, so Palmer should be able to take over for him if that continues. Until then, he figures to work along with Williams on the perimeter while Allen mans the slot in three-wide packages. Given the combination of his skill-set and Herbert's talent, Palmer could move into the WR4 conversation later in the season.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[nobody 2,037]

Dynasty Alert: Reading some good things about Mr. Palmer.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/31/los-angeles-chargers-training-camp-josh-palmer/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwjTzq2RrpHyAhVimK0KHfphD5sQyM8BMAB6BAgMEAM&usg=AOvVaw09NL112wXiVzGGv6qLJhEC&ampcf=1

Also keep reading good things about Tyron Johnson.  

If it ends up being that Palmer and/or Johnson are actually legitimate threats, Herbert with that revamped o-line could be good value.

[nobody 2,037]

Another article gushing  about Josh Palmer.  

https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/04/los-angeles-chargers-josh-palmer-shining-training-camp/

[nobody 2,037]

I won't bother linking more articles talking up Josh Palmer, but I would say at this point if Mike Williams misses time in the regular season, I would run, not walk, to the waiver wire to pick up Palmer.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,116]

I see no downside to taking a shot on the kid.  He's just as good an option as some of the others.  Possibly a better one.

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I see no downside to taking a shot on the kid.

The downside is him taking up a roster slot that could be filled by a fantasy-relevant player.

[weepaws 2,459]

Just read that the Chargers Qb said that we need to get the ball a lot more more often to M Williams, this is going to be big season for M Williams to prove he’s worthy of a starting wr slot with the Chargers, if he can do to is another thing.  

Im still targeting him as a wr4-5 , but Palmer is a good wr5 pick up if I can’t   

 

[nobody 2,037]

The thing about Mike Williams is his style of play is being officiated out of the game.

With the crackdown on defensive holding and helmet to helmet contact and targeting, the value of these receivers that are essentially contested catch guys is going down.  Why throw a 50/50 ball up when a guy like Elijah Moore can just get separation?  If you can't run crisp routes and gain space against the defender, they don't need you.  

That's why guys like Laquon Treadwell and Denzel Mims struggle.  They can't get separation, so the QB throws to the Cole Beasley's of the world. 

Notice how many 180 pound receivers got drafted high this year?  That's not a coincidence.  Those guys used to be exceptions.

[nobody 2,037]

The good thing about Mike Williams this year is with everyone praising Palmer and him needing to perform to get a contract, I've seen reports he's actually working on his route running.  

He knows Palmer is nipping at his heels, so he needs to up his game.

[TBayXXXVII 2,116]

5 minutes ago, nobody said:

The thing about Mike Williams is his style of play is being officiated out of the game.

With the crackdown on defensive holding, the value of these receivers that are essentially contested catch guys is going down.  Why throw a 50/50 ball up when a guy like Elijah Moore can just get separation?  If you can't run crisp routes and gain space against the defender, they don't need you.  

That's why guys like Laquon Treadwell and Denzel Mims struggle.  They can't get separation, so the QB throws to the Cole Beasley's of the world. 

Notice how many 180 pound receivers got drafted high this year?  That's not a coincidence.  Those guys used to be exceptions.

 

1 minute ago, nobody said:

The good thing about Mike Williams this year is with everyone praising Palmer and him needing to perform to get a contract, I've seen reports he's actually working on his route running.  

He knows Palmer is nipping at his heels, so he needs to up his game.

I think that it has more to do with Mike Williams not being as good as he needs to be at his job, than the NFL officiating out his game.  The officiating has been going on for years and that hasn't stopped Mike Evans from being the first WR ever to start his career with 7 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons.  I'm thinking that the issue is more the latter than the former, in that Williams isn't a good route runner.

I will say, I'm not so sure Williams would be without a job though, if Palmer beats him out for a starting role.  It's not like Williams isn't talented.  He could be their deep threat or end zone target.  I mean, he won't get a big pay day, but he should be able to make a good salary and be a decent contributor for any team.

[nobody 2,037]

The gold standard are going to be big guys that can also create separation.  The Mike Evans, Godwin, davante adams, ceedee lamb, Stephen Diggs, Michael Thomas, and eventually Tyler Johnson if he can ever get a chance to see the field. They're all big and they get open so you get the contested catches and the easy catches because you have a yard on the defender.

That's why I loved Rashod Bateman going into the draft.  He fits that mold.  He's such a smooth route runner for a big guy.

[nobody 2,037]

What you up to Josh Palmer?  "Oh I'm just about to beat this cornerback on an out route by 3 yards even though he's playing outside leverage.  Watch me plant my foot and change direction at the top, it's going to be sweet.  Oh and then I'm going to make sure I high point the ball with a hands catch away from my body."

God damn I love the way this guy runs routes.  He fakes the inside slant to make the DB give up leverage and then moves him out of the way, fights through the jersey tug and loses almost no speed on the cut.  I love this guy.

 

[DrG 94]

Palming not a crime in the NFL

[AxeElf 787]

25% of the greatest Fantasy Football Team Name Ever (circa 2007-2010):

Palmer Breaston Driver Bush

[tanatastic 2,061]

I can see this guy becoming a value as the season goes on or a spot starter in 3wr leagues. Can do a lot worse than an upside talent with a breakout QB. I’ll keep him in mind later, I need upside guys for the back half.

[TBayXXXVII 2,116]

On 8/13/2021 at 3:37 PM, nobody said:

The gold standard are going to be big guys that can also create separation.  The Mike Evans, Godwin, davante adams, ceedee lamb, Stephen Diggs, Michael Thomas, and eventually Tyler Johnson if he can ever get a chance to see the field. They're all big and they get open so you get the contested catches and the easy catches because you have a yard on the defender.

That's why I loved Rashod Bateman going into the draft.  He fits that mold.  He's such a smooth route runner for a big guy.

Godwin and Evans don't get the separation you think they get.  Among WR's, both ranked outside the top 45 in each of the last 2 years in separation.  Evans was outside the top 60 in 2019.

[TBayXXXVII 2,116]

In my keeper league, we have a 20-man roster.  Good call on this one @nobody, he's somebody I'll look to target for the long term.

[AintNoStoppinMeNow 68]

OK I'll admit it. While I like Palmer I didn't pay much attention to him because I felt if there was any WR to own, outside of Keenan of course, it was Mike Williams. However, Williams is hurt again and that's been the story of his career and playing style in the NFL. I'm going to pivot off Big Mike and just take a dart throw on Palmer late. 

[nobody 2,037]

When I watched the Rams/Chargers I just watched Palmer the whole time.  I'm confident he's going to be good.  He obviously didn't get a lot of action in this game, but he has the tell-tale signs of a good receiver.  One thing that he does that I look for and that I really like is accelerate off the snap.  Ceedee Lamb is one of the best I've ever seen at this.  The ball is snapped and he's two yards down the field before half the offense even started moving.  

Effort, blocking, route running, hands, he's got a lot of talent and he brings the intangibles. 

In fairness he did miss a couple of blocks.  One got the runningback blown up in the backfield.  The chargers were recycling plays and the third time they ran this same presnap motion, the 49er safety recognized the play and came flying up off the edge and timed it almost perfectly.  Palmer was motioning into a bunch formation and that was supposed to be his guy.  The safety was there so fast, Palmer just started to try and block and just let him go and went looking for someone else.  And the safety leveled the runningback for a three yard loss.  He probably needed to attack the guy more aggressively to slow him down.  

[nobody 2,037]

https://www.si.com/nfl/chargers/news/chargers-wr-josh-palmer-has-impressed-coaches-and-teammates-during-camp

Man, he's looking like a good one.

Quote

"The game," said Palmer. "Keenan is a special player. So, from a skill standpoint, not a lot of people can do what he does, so he teaches me a lot of leverage and stuff. Coming off the ball attacking using my abilities to my strengths, and just being confident learning the playbook."

During training camp at Jack Hammett, every time Palmer came off the field from reps, he would walk over to Allen and go over the sequences.

"Josh is doing a very good job, with as young as he is and how he's able to run routes," said Allen. "He's aggressive, he's friendly with the quarterbacks, and he's precise. That's a good thing from a rookie."

The veteran receiver has watched many receivers come into the organization, so when he talks glowingly about a player, it is because he recognizes the talent. He went so far as to say that Palmer is better at this point than Allen was after his first training camp.

"He's polished," explained Allen. "You can tell he's polished and knows what to do. He obviously knows releases, he knows leverage. He just knows how to run routes already."

 

Quote

Week in and week out, he has been the only other receiver besides Allen to make plays during training camp.

"He keeps making plays, so we're really pleased with him," said offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.

Quote

 

"I think he's talented, and he wants to get better," explained Herbert. "He comes out here every day with me to throw routes and catch. Sometimes I have to tell him, 'Hey, it's time to get off the field, you have a game this Sunday.' He's done a great job, and he's picking it up quickly."

There hasn't been a day where Herbert and Palmer aren't working after practice. Even after training camp was moved back to Hoag Performance Center, they stayed for about 30 minutes.

 

 

[Ray_T 590]

On 8/13/2021 at 6:06 PM, nobody said:

What you up to Josh Palmer?  "Oh I'm just about to beat this cornerback on an out route by 3 yards even though he's playing outside leverage.  Watch me plant my foot and change direction at the top, it's going to be sweet.  Oh and then I'm going to make sure I high point the ball with a hands catch away from my body."

God damn I love the way this guy runs routes.  He fakes the inside slant to make the DB give up leverage and then moves him out of the way, fights through the jersey tug and loses almost no speed on the cut.  I love this guy.

 

I'll say one thing.  he looked really good on his particular play