Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
The Football Guru

Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Trey Sermon, 49ers

Recommended Posts

Team Fit: Interesting, interesting, interesting. It took a while for Sermon to get comfortable in the Ohio State offense following his transfer from Oklahoma and an equally long time for the Buckeyes' coaching staff to commit to him, but it was a beautiful thing when they came together. Assuming the comfort levels of both sides was the reason why he enjoyed a historic postseason run and that version is the one NFL coaches can expect moving forward, Sermon is almost certain to outperform his draft position. The former four-star recruit forced 33 missed tackles on 116 rushing attempts and could have shed even more tackles if he lowered his pad level more often. He did a better job of this - and running with impressive power - during the aforementioned run when he put up 524 yards rushing (to go along with 65 receiving yards) in wins over Northwestern in the Big Ten championship game and Clemson in the CFP semifinals. Sermon fumbled only twice in 455 carries over his college career, including zero on 170 attempts over his last two seasons. Sermon, who comps favorably to James Robinson and Damien Harris, is no stranger to running in a zone-blocking scheme and was handpicked by a regime that doesn't tend to spend early picks at the position.

What does it mean in redraft? RB4, but with significant upside. Sermon will likely begin the season behind Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, but the former is pushing 30 and the latter just started to emerge late last season.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can he over take Gallman? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sermon instantly becomes the #3 rookie RB and potentially a solid RB2, given Mostert's inability to stay healthy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His play will he sporadic during the first half of the season but look for his carries to take a jump in the 2nd half and he could end up being the starter at some point. I think he was an excellant pick for the 49ers in the 3rd round as they are noted to feature running the ball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Niners back field is going to be a tough ff situation to get a handle of. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mostert's a good rb in Shanahan's system but has had trouble staying healthy of late. If that trend continues into this year then I think Sermon's talent will beat out Jeff Wilson  and he would take over the lead role. Even so he's not gonna get bellcow carries and could be an up and down fantasy play this year. Next Yaletown is when I expect him to take the rb reins and run(pun intended, lol) with it. Yet Lance should be the fulltime starter next year and that'll dig into Sermon's carries a bit. He'll probably end.up being a better real time rb than a consistent fantasy rb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seman will beat out J Wilson even without an injury to Mostert, and I don’t see this team hosting a rb1 Bell Cow, I think it’s going to be a RBBC. The whole season no matter who’s healthy or not healthy. 

Its going to be a big concern for ff owners though out the season. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Seman will beat out J Wilson even without an injury to Mostert, and I don’t see this team hosting a rb1 Bell Cow, I think it’s going to be a RBBC. The whole season no matter who’s healthy or not healthy. 

Its going to be a big concern for ff owners though out the season. 

 

Yeah definitely going to be a headache for fantasy rb's there. In redraft Sermon's probably no better than a 4th rb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeff Wilson reportedly out 4-6 months with a meniscus tear.  So that means he's coming back somewhere between week 3 - week 12.  If you assume he's healthy week 3, he can't even get going until probably week 5 while he gets back in shape.  I mean unless that's built into the recovery.

We'll know in training camp if Sermon and/or Mitchell is playing well if they end up putting Wilson on the PUP to start the season.  That'll keep him out through week 6 unless they changed the rules for COVID.

Kind of odd to me that he would miss that much time.  I always thought meniscus was an 8 week injury.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Opens things up a little bit.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tough break for Wilson. He should have gotten a fair amount of work this year until this happened. That said I think Sermon seizes the opportunity in training camp and runs(pun intended,lol) with it. Hopefully he picks up the playback quickly and can handle pass protection. I can see him getting more and more work asthe season progresses and wouldn't be surprised if he takes over the lead job at some point. With Shanahan's running scheme he'll get opportunity now to succeed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the injury helps Gallman more than Sermon. He was pretty good last year for the Gmen, running behind a shaky OL. I'll let someone else spend a high pick on Sermon, happy to take a late round on Mostert or flier on Gallman.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jrokh said:

I'll let someone else spend a high pick on Sermon, happy to take a late round on Mostert or flier on Gallman.

Sounds good in theory, but the fly in the ointment of course is that Mostert has a 4th round ADP, while Sermon's is in the 12th round.  So by the time you let someone else spend that high pick on Sermon, Mostert will probably be long gone.  You would still have a shot at your Gallman flier, though; he goes shortly after Sermon in the 14th.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jrokh said:

I think the injury helps Gallman more than Sermon. He was pretty good last year for the Gmen, running behind a shaky OL. I'll let someone else spend a high pick on Sermon, happy to take a late round on Mostert or flier on Gallman.

Have it backwards don’t you, Mostert right now would be the early adp pick, I think Sermon current adp is good value.  

But with Gallman and Wilson who will be returning, I’ll stay away from Mostert. 

If I had to take one, I would take Sermon but only if I had to. 

Good luck

Amen 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Sounds good in theory, but the fly in the ointment of course is that Mostert has a 4th round ADP, while Sermon's is in the 12th round.  So by the time you let someone else spend that high pick on Sermon, Mostert will probably be long gone.  You would still have a shot at your Gallman flier, though; he goes shortly after Sermon in the 14th.

I guess I’m less concerned with May ADP than most, have no idea what Mostert ADP is now and don’t care, but your point is fair.  I expect by draft time( for me usually around Labor Day) Mostert will be further down and sermon will jump. I will amend to say I’d rather have Gallman as a flier than Sermon at his expected ADP I’ll guess  somewhere between rounds 5-8 in a 12 teamer. I wouldn’t touch any of them anywhere near round 4. I’d much rather have Gaskin...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mostert adp is going to drop, but he’ll still have the highest or worst value adp among all four Rbs. the others.  

Wilson is going to miss the first six games, but he’ll return fresh and ready to roll, draft any of them at ones own risk. 

Mostert would have to fall at least and no less than four more rounds for me to interested, and Sermon would need to stay above double digit rounds for me to want to draft him, and I think that will happen, with Gallman now on the team and based on his recent success last season with the Gmen, I think now with Wilson out six regular season games Gallman adp is going to really drop, and he might even surpass Sermon in redraft leagues . 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Sounds good in theory, but the fly in the ointment of course is that Mostert has a 4th round ADP, while Sermon's is in the 12th round.  So by the time you let someone else spend that high pick on Sermon, Mostert will probably be long gone.  You would still have a shot at your Gallman flier, though; he goes shortly after Sermon in the 14th.

The more current ADP for FFPC leagues, which are actual $$$ drafts and more likely to have "reasonably knowledgeable to shark-ish" drafters has Mostert RB 30 and Sermon RB 31 going back to back at picks 78 and 79 (7th round). This ADP is for the month of May, post NFL Draft and entirely pre-Wilson injury. Wilson was going RB 47, pick 126. 

The ADP source with Mostert in the 4th round was likely lagging a great deal weighted pre-NFL draft.

I suspect both Sermon and Mostert will settle higher following the Wilson injury

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, lesjroza said:

The more current ADP for FFPC leagues, which h are more likely to have reasonably knowledgeable to sharks drafters has Mostert RB 30 and Sermon RB 31 going back to back at picks 78 and 79 (7th round). This ADP is for the month of May, post NFL Draft and entirely pre-Wilson injury. Wilson was going RB 47, pick 126. 

The ADP source with Mostert in the 4th rounds was likely lagging a great deal weighted pre-NFL draft.

I suspect both Sermon and Mostert will settle higher following the Wilson injury

Now that’s very interesting, thank you for that info. Both would be late rb2 , mmm that’s to high I would pass  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Now that’s very interesting, thank you for that info. Both would be late rb2 , mmm that’s to high I would pass  

 

 

Talking 16 tm league?

RB 30-31 is mid RB3 in a 12 tm league

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, lesjroza said:

 

Talking 16 tm league?

RB 30-31 is mid RB3 in a 12 tm league

14 team non ppr,  yeah I extended that Low rb2 a little bit  

But again I did appreciate that info  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, jrokh said:

I think the injury helps Gallman more than Sermon. He was pretty good last year for the Gmen, running behind a shaky OL. I'll let someone else spend a high pick on Sermon, happy to take a late round on Mostert or flier on Gallman.

If you're going to take a flier on a guy, I'd consider Elijah Mitchell over Gallman.  Elijah is a small school guy drafted in the 6th round, but he's actually pretty comparable to Jeff Wilson... Runs a little upright, doesn't have a ton of wiggle, but has a ton of straight line speed.  Plus Louisiana ran an outside zone pretty exclusively which happens to be exactly what SF runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not really sold on Sermon at the pro level. Aside from 2 monster games vs Northwestern and Clemson last year, he seems a bit of a plodder and a bruiser. He got hurt on 1st play in championship game. We know they hit harder in the NFL and i'm not sure if he's elusive enough to avoid major contact at pro level. I'm not convinced. He ran somewhere between 4.57 and 4.60 at his pro day 40 which stinks IMO considering the pro day numbers usually get some juice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I'm not really sold on Sermon at the pro level. Aside from 2 monster games vs Northwestern and Clemson last year, he seems a bit of a plodder and a bruiser. He got hurt on 1st play in championship game. We know they hit harder in the NFL and i'm not sure if he's elusive enough to avoid major contact at pro level. I'm not convinced. He ran somewhere between 4.57 and 4.60 at his pro day 40 which stinks IMO considering the pro day numbers usually get some juice.

Sermon was a starting RB at both Oklahoma and Ohio State.  That automatically qualifies him for consideration at the next level.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I'm not really sold on Sermon at the pro level. Aside from 2 monster games vs Northwestern and Clemson last year, he seems a bit of a plodder and a bruiser. He got hurt on 1st play in championship game. We know they hit harder in the NFL and i'm not sure if he's elusive enough to avoid major contact at pro level. I'm not convinced. He ran somewhere between 4.57 and 4.60 at his pro day 40 which stinks IMO considering the pro day numbers usually get some juice.

I’m not sold either. He’s a tough dude, a tackle breaking machine with terrific contact balance. His burst and long speed is somewhat concerning. If he went to a different team I would like him more. The niners like to rotate their backs too much for my taste. Best Ball format like the Gnome did is where it would make more sense...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree I’m not that impressed either

I would pass any of these Rbs, all of them will be making contributions to the success of the Niners season. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Sermon was a starting RB at both Oklahoma and Ohio State.  That automatically qualifies him for consideration at the next level.

Preach

40 time is overrated.   Especially for runningbacks.  A runningback needs vision to find the whole and enough agility and contact balance to setup and avoid defenders.  Once we have that, coaches should start worrying about whether a guy runs 4.45 or 4.55.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/3/2021 at 9:46 AM, weepaws said:

I think the Niners back field is going to be a tough ff situation to get a handle of. 

 

That's pretty much what it's been since Frank Gore's last season there in 2014

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mostert is in the last year of his contract and an age where speed guys have lost a step. Sermon could be next up. But this is a backfield where the 3rd RB or 4th RB is often the best value late in the season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DrG said:

Mostert is in the last year of his contract and an age where speed guys have lost a step. Sermon could be next up. But this is a backfield where the 3rd RB or 4th RB is often the best value late in the season.

Agreed.  

Mostert should be their rb1 week one play one, after that I think it’s going to be messy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sermon will not displace anyone until he shows pass blocking acumen. The Great Carmack has it a 50-50 bet between Sermon and Gallman the last 1/3 of the season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, DrG said:

Sermon will not displace anyone until he shows pass blocking acumen. The Great Carmack has it a 50-50 bet between Sermon and Gallman the last 1/3 of the season.

Check.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lance Z and a few other scouting sites report him as a capable pass blocker.

Ah the optimism that surrounds the draft.

and Gallman is already 26!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×