2021 Round 4 Instant Fantasy Analysis

[The Football Guru 211]

4.02 - RB Michael Carter, Jets

Team Fit: Do not make the mistake of underestimating Carter because he is 5-8 and 201 pounds. The Florida native compares favorably to Devonta Freeman as an undersized back unafraid to run with power but who is also instinctual and quick enough to make defenders miss. Also like a young Freeman, Carter has impressive stop-start ability and keeps his feet through contact, so he is not limited to "space work" just because he a bit undersized. To that end, the ACC's leading rusher last year leads this draft class with 29 carries of at least 15 yards and piled up impressive numbers in missed tackles forced (47, fifth in the class) and yards after contact (814, sixth), per Pro Football Focus. Perhaps the most impressive part of his resume is that he did not fumble in either of his last two seasons (379 touches). The two key qualities that figure to keep Carter from being a true every-down back in the NFL is his size and the fact he will occasionally get run over in pass protection. Although he profiles as a complementary piece in a committee backfield in the NFL, he is an immediate threat to steal around 10 touches per game from Tevin Coleman and La'Mical Perine.

What does it mean in redraft? RB3. Carter should emerge as the preferred options on passing downs soon enough, and the possibility he ends up leading the backfield cannot be discounted.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[The Football Guru 211]

4.04 - WR Dez Fitzpatrick, Titans

Team Fit: The fact the Titans waited until Round 4 to address the receiver position seems to indicate they are willing to Josh Reynolds a real chance to grab Corey Davis' old role. Fitzpatrick is a middling prospect in that he doesn't stand out in any one area, although he did show more of a knack to produce big plays in 2019 and 2020. While he did show a knack to make the spectacular catch, he was also charged with 21 drops over his career and never finished with more than the 45 receptions he had as a freshman.

What does it mean in redraft? Minimal impact. The dearth of receivers in Tennessee gives him a chance should A.J. Brown or Reynolds get hurt, but his odds of producing in 2021 even if that happens are slim.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[The Football Guru 211]

4.07 - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

Team Fit: The Lions' depth chart is lackluster at best at receiver, as Breshad Perriman, Quintez Cephus and Tyrell Williams headline the group. St. Brown isn't the type of prospect that is going to blow right through that competition, but he is savvy enough to get deep on a regular basis despite lacking game-breaking speed (4.6). The son of a two-time Mr. Universe, it should come as no surprise that St. Brown is built well and is physical enough to occasionally make some things happen after the catch, although only 35.7 percent of his career receiving yards came after the catch.

What does it mean in redraft? WR6 (maybe). Perriman and Cephus should be considered the favorites to start, while Williams should open as the primary deep threat. St. Brown's avenue to immediate playing time is winning the slot job, but he may end sharing snaps there with Cephus and D'Andre Swift.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[Kopy 489]

WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Once you get past the "top 3". 

My favorite WR's were Bateman and Wallace. JFC! They both go to Baltimore?

 waste

 

[The Football Guru 211]

4.15 - RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots

Team Fit: Two things immediately stand out about Stevenson: his size (230 pounds … he was listed at 246 by the school) and 165 carries at the FBS level. (He did rush for over 2,500 yards at the JUCO level though.) It doesn't take long before watching him on film to see he is not the prototypical "big back." His most defining feature may be his ability to contribute as a receiver and adequate blocker in the passing game. At his best as a runner, Stevenson runs with a nice combination of power and elusiveness for a back of his size. Pro Football Focus credited him with 36 missed tackles forced on only 101 carries in 2020. Unfortunately, he doesn't always play to his size and deliver the blow. He also does not have the ability to shift into another gear when he gets out in the open or get restarted if his feet stop moving. Another negative is his three fumbles on his 165 carries with the Sooners. In New England, he'll serve as a quality backup as someone who can give the Patriots a healthy mix of Damien Harris and James White's best skills and replace one of them in a pinch should Harris or White get hurt.

What does it mean in redraft? Very little. New England has used a committee backfield for years and isn't about to change now. Stevenson's only avenue to redraft value is an injury to Harris or White. Even then, he lacks Harris' power and White's quickness.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[The Football Guru 211]

4.21 - RB Chuba Hubbard, Panthers

Team Fit: No one is taking over anytime soon for Christian McCaffrey, but that's not the point with this pick. Mike Davis moved on to Atlanta, and Carolina would probably like to avoid a repeat of last season when it struggled to run after CMC got hurt. A proper evaluation of Hubbard depends on how much stock one wants to put on his 2020 tape (which was effectively ended after five games due to a high-ankle sprain in a COVID year) versus the 2019 tape that saw him rush for over 2,000 yards. One thing was abundantly clear in both seasons: he has the ability to handle a heavy load week after week. He boasts high-level vision and instincts for where the hole will open and generally will not get caught bouncing runs to the outside unnecessarily. Surprisingly for a 210-pound back, Hubbard surprisingly relies more on vision and power and less on making defenders miss in the hole (although he flashes this at times). On the downside, he fumbled seven times over the last two seasons and 11 times in his college career.

What does it mean in redraft? Primary handcuff option for McCaffrey, which makes him a worthwhile investment as a high-upside RB4.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[The Football Guru 211]

4.26 - WR Tylan Wallace, Ravens

Team Fit: It's a terrible landing spot for Wallace, who had a decent shot to produce right away if he would have landed in a run-heavy offense that didn't already have Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins - among others - ahead of him in the passing game food chain. Nevertheless, Wallace offers sure hands (three drops on 178 targets over the last two seasons), strong run-after-catch skills and an ability to win more than his share of contested catches despite his rather ordinary frame (6-0, 194). It's also hard to ignore how often he kept the chains moving or put the ball in the end zone; 73.7 percent of his catches ended up producing a first down or touchdown. Jakobi Meyers is a recent example of a receiving who didn't produce the greatest testing numbers but has typically produced when given the chance and makes a reasonable comp for Wallace. Even if Baltimore wants to use him in the slot, he'll have to beat out Devin Duvernay for that - and that will be no easy task.

What does it mean in redraft? He can probably be ignored for all the reasons outlined above.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

[Ray_T 587]

42 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

4.04 - WR Dez Fitzpatrick, Titans

Team Fit: The fact the Titans waited until Round 4 to address the receiver position seems to indicate they are willing to Josh Reynolds a real chance to grab Corey Davis' old role. Fitzpatrick is a middling prospect in that he doesn't stand out in any one area, although he did show more of a knack to produce big plays in 2019 and 2020. While he did show a knack to make the spectacular catch, he was also charged with 21 drops over his career and never finished with more than the 45 receptions he had as a freshman.

What does it mean in redraft? Minimal impact. The dearth of receivers in Tennessee gives him a chance should A.J. Brown or Reynolds get hurt, but his odds of producing in 2021 even if that happens are slim.

Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back next week.

I agree. This is likely part of a succession plan. 

if he develops as he should, he may be a starter 2 or 3 years from now.   for now, I'd say hes a special teams player and a backup WR