Myles Gaskin

[jrokh 567]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

mean how much invested our the Raiders with Jacobs, they went out and sign Drake. 

Obviously not invested that much, just like the Dolphins..

[weepaws 2,450]

40 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Obviously not invested that much, just like the Dolphins..

Wrong the  Raiders sign Drake, Dolphins haven’t sign nor drafted any player that is a threat to take away Gaskins ff value. 

Just more noise Blah Blah Blah. 

[jrokh 567]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Wrong the  Raiders sign Drake, Dolphins haven’t sign nor drafted any player that is a threat to take away Gaskins ff value. 

Just more noise Blah Blah Blah. 

Hey you spelled all the words in this one post correctly. Way to go gramps, I knew you could do it!

[AxeElf 787]

4 hours ago, jrokh said:

Hey you spelled all the words in this one post correctly. Way to go gramps, I knew you could do it!

Well, not exactly.  While he technically spelled "sign" correctly, he really needed to use the past tense, "signed," in that sentence.

Baby steps...

[tenaciousb 0]

Gaskin had 184 touches last season.  Overall a better receiver than runner.  A little on the small side. I don't see him getting more than 225  touches next year. A low RB2 in a PPR league.

[weepaws 2,450]

20 minutes ago, tenaciousb said:

Gaskin had 184 touches last season.  Overall a better receiver than runner.  A little on the small side. I don't see him getting more than 225  touches next year. A low RB2 in a PPR league.

Only in ten games, over a course of 16 that’s 292 touches.  

[DrG 94]

Once Gaskin became the starter, he was consistently around the 20 touch mark.

if he and Ahmed keep the 1, 2 spots... not a bad option for your rb2

[weepaws 2,450]

2 hours ago, DrG said:

Once Gaskin became the starter, he was consistently around the 20 touch mark.

if he and Ahmed keep the 1, 2 spots... not a bad option for your rb2

Agreed, now don’t buy a lot of stock yet, it’s still May , but talking ff in May on a ff site, its a goody time. 

[jrokh 567]

2 hours ago, DrG said:

Once Gaskin became the starter, he was consistently around the 20 touch mark.

if he and Ahmed keep the 1, 2 spots... not a bad option for your rb2

Gaskin had 20 touches or more 5 out of 16 games. If that's good enough for your rb2 than good speed. Not all of us play in a 14 team non ppr league with a bunch of geriatric suckers....

[weepaws 2,450]

Gaskin had 5 games of 20 plus touches in 10 games played in, can’t count games one doesn’t play in. 

A Jones had 5 games of 20 plus touches in 16 games played in.

J Taylor had 6 games of 20 plus touches in 16 games played in. 

J Jacobs had 6 games of 20 plus touches in 15 games played in. 

Amen  

 

[DrG 94]

JR 

‘Once he got the starting job’ opportunity was there. He didn’t get the job until well into the season. Of games he started, was usually around 20 touches and did well in pass protection playing as 3 down back.

I take it as a given most RBS are going to miss some games. I’ll take the 3 down back whenever I can

[jrokh 567]

2 hours ago, DrG said:

JR 

‘Once he got the starting job’ opportunity was there. He didn’t get the job until well into the season. Of games he started, was usually around 20 touches and did well in pass protection playing as 3 down back.

I take it as a given most RBS are going to miss some games. I’ll take the 3 down back whenever I can

I know, he was one of my faab all-stars last season until I fortunately flipped him for Jonathan Taylor. I know what he did for a few weeks last season. I just don’t think the fins consider him a 20 touch bell cow. Regardless, I think he would make a fine Rb3/flex. It’s the 2nd or 3rd round talk I find amusing...

[AxeElf 787]

Currently sitting at 4.12 for 12-team PPR on FFC, so not TOO extravagant.

[jrokh 567]

20 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Currently sitting at 4.12 for 12-team PPR on FFC, so not TOO extravagant.

That makes a lot more sense for Gaskin.

[weepaws 2,450]

Yeah but with Robinson and Jacobs dropping daily , Mr Gaskins will be moving up.  And that’s not good news. 

[Ray_T 587]

On 5/18/2021 at 7:07 PM, AxeElf said:

Currently sitting at 4.12 for 12-team PPR on FFC, so not TOO extravagant.

yeah,  that. likely. makes him. a mid range RB2.   give or take.   if you wanna make sure you get. him you draft him in round 4.  I'm sure some will get him earlier, some later.   it all averages out.    but if I could get him at 4.12 or 5.01 I'd be thrilled.

[AxeElf 787]

12 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

yeah,  that. likely. makes him. a mid range RB2.   give or take.   

As the RB24 at 4.12, he's pretty much the bottom of the barrel RB2 in 12 team leagues--by his ADP, anyway.

I'd rather have Mike Davis--cheaper in the draft, better overall offense, more scoring opportunities, and probly less of a committee, as well.

[Ray_T 587]

4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

As the RB24 at 4.12, he's pretty much the bottom of the barrel RB2 in 12 team leagues--by his ADP, anyway.

I'd rather have Mike Davis--cheaper in the draft, better overall offense, more scoring opportunities, and probly less of a committee, as well.

well, you know my thought on the committee thing in Miami.  I dont think it will be one.

but I dont disagree, Mike Davis could be a nice later round pickup.     I'd rather have Gaskin though.

[AxeElf 787]

7 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, you know my thought on the committee thing in Miami.  I dont think it will be one.

Why?  What's changed?  It's the same coaching staff as last year--you know, when Jordan Howard scored a TD in 4 of the 5 games in which he appeared?  He had 60 yards rushing on 35 attempts, and still vultured 4 TDs.  In 5 games.  I really think Malcolm Brown might get even more usage than Jordan Howard did, but if all he does is get a rushing TD every game like Howard did, that's gonna be about 60 fantasy points that Gaskin doesn't get--even if Gaskin is averaging 18 touches per game.  That's bad enough in PPR, but in standard scoring, it would be huge.

[weepaws 2,450]

With just three rushing tds last season, Gaskin avg was still 13th in non ppr.  

If your drafting today both Gaskin and M Davis would make for some great steals. 

Come August and if they stay healthy they’ll both have higher adp.  

I think M Davis should be looked at as a low rb1,  Gaskins, he’s still a high rb2.  

And now you know the rest of the story.  

[LoOnAtIk 75]

52 minutes ago, weepaws said:

With just three rushing tds last season, Gaskin avg was still 13th in non ppr.  

If your drafting today both Gaskin and M Davis would make for some great steals. 

Come August and if they stay healthy they’ll both have higher adp.  

I think M Davis should be looked at as a low rb1,  Gaskins, he’s still a high rb2.  

And now you know the rest of the story.  

I rarely agree with Weepaws but I like this take. Those are 2 of my “sleeper” low end RB1s once the big guys are off. Guys like Cam Akers (who I love) and D’Andre Swift are skyrocketing up draft boards and they’re relatively unproven. I’d prefer Gaskin and Davis at significantly lower ADPs.

[jrokh 567]

5 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I’d prefer Gaskin and Davis at significantly lower ADPs.

Sure at lower ADP's. But as some are suggesting Gaskin is a low end RB1/High end RB2 would you really want him as a 2nd round pick, at say the opportunity cost of someone like AJ Brown? No thanks...

[weepaws 2,450]

Why does one have to draft a rb two in the second round.  

On the site know as FFC, they have Mixon and Dobbins and Sanders and Carson all ranked as high rb2. 

Mixon ADP is 2:12 that’s the last pick of round 2.  

Dobbins ADP 3:2 that would be the third round 

Sanders ADP 3.5. 

Carson ADP 3.8. 

Those are from non ppr, so someone can get their rb one round one take A Brown round two and easly get a low rb1/ high rb2 in round three. 

One never knows how a draft will flow.  

Besides I thought talking player rankings in May is just silly talk, oh how those hypocrites like to resurface. 

 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

4 hours ago, jrokh said:

Sure at lower ADP's. But as some are suggesting Gaskin is a low end RB1/High end RB2 would you really want him as a 2nd round pick, at say the opportunity cost of someone like AJ Brown? No thanks...

That’s oddly specific round to draft them and name drop of AJ Brown lol very random. I think Gaskin and Davis ADP is around rounds 4-5. That doesn’t mean you can’t still target them as a low-end RB1, high end RB2. Akers and Swift are currently going as high as end of round 1, early round 2. 
 

So to your point theoretically I’m getting Gaskin/Davis AND AJ Brown.

[jrokh 567]

8 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

That’s oddly specific round to draft them and name drop of AJ Brown lol very random. I think Gaskin and Davis ADP is around rounds 4-5. That doesn’t mean you can’t still target them as a low-end RB1, high end RB2. Akers and Swift are currently going as high as end of round 1, early round 2. 
 

So to your point theoretically I’m getting Gaskin/Davis AND AJ Brown.

My point is if Gaskin is valued as a low end RB1 you would have to draft him in round 2 at an opportunity cost of an AJ brown-esque player. We are in synergy that as a low-end rb2/flex in round 4 or 5 he is a good value...

[LoOnAtIk 75]

10 minutes ago, jrokh said:

My point is if Gaskin is valued as a low end RB1 you would have to draft him in round 2 at an opportunity cost of an AJ brown-esque player. We are in synergy that as a low-end rb2/flex in round 4 or 5 he is a good value...

That’s the floor and where you draft the player. I’m just saying they both have low end RB1 potential. 
 

Draft is all about maximizing value. You always wanna target players that you think will outperform their ADP. If Gaskin and Davis are going around rounds 4-5, count me in.

[jrokh 567]

1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

That’s the floor and where you draft the player. I’m just saying they both have low end RB1 potential. 
 

Draft is all about maximizing value. You always wanna target players that you think will outperform their ADP. If Gaskin and Davis are going around rounds 4-5, count me in.

As I said from the first response, we are in agreement. To those in this thread that would consider him late in round two or three, as some have posted, I think you will be extremely disappointed. You could make the case that many low-end Rb2/Flex type have low end RB1 potential. I am saying no way Gaskin finishes the season as a top 12 rb. It is rather early for predictions of this kind, but it was near 90 degrees in Cleveland today so it feels like late July.

[weepaws 2,450]

Gaskin was 12 in avg last season in ppr, and 13 in non. 

Thats a good rb2.  

[LoOnAtIk 75]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

As I said from the first response, we are in agreement. To those in this thread that would consider him late in round two or three, as some have posted, I think you will be extremely disappointed. You could make the case that many low-end Rb2/Flex type have low end RB1 potential. I am saying no way Gaskin finishes the season as a top 12 rb. It is rather early for predictions of this kind, but it was near 90 degrees in Cleveland today so it feels like late July.

I think the only think playing against Gaskin is his injury history. If he stays healthy he’s gonna score points in that offense. Brown might vulture a few short yardage TDs here and there but Gaskin will have 3-4 receptions per game giving him a solid floor in PPR. Again assuming health.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Like weepaws and other people are showing in this thread, use context rather than full season stats when making cases for or against players. Gaskin was a workhorse when he got the chance, you can’t look at 16 games. 
 

Same folley can be made with people comparing Henderson and Cam Akers year long stats. They only took the reigns off of Cam late and he was good for them, meanwhile Henderson started hot and then sucked. 

[tanatastic 2,061]

6 hours ago, jrokh said:

. I am saying no way Gaskin finishes the season as a top 12 rb. .

Just for reference, Mike Davis was the no12 ppr rb last season and he had 642 6 59 373 2. 

[Ray_T 587]

11 hours ago, weepaws said:

Why does one have to draft a rb two in the second round. 

This.

It is fair to assume your RB1 is in round 1.  but some RB1's will be drafted in round 2 because not everyone drafts their first RB in round 1.

Just the same, not all RB2's are drafted in round 2.

I think your RB2's start coming off the board in the middle  to later parts of round 2 but most are drafted in round 3.

That being said, projecting Gaskins stats to a full season based on games played isnt unreasonable and if you do that hes a high end RB2.

Just because you believe hes a high end RB2 doesnt mean you should draft him there.    If you think everyone else has him pegged for a mid range to low end RB2 you dont draft hiim in round 2.  you wait to round 3 or take your chances and try to nab him in round 4.

But I never chase.  I draft where the best value is at the time.

If you are drafting in the #10 slot and the first 9 picks are RB Guess where the value is likely at?  Probably not at RB.

So its all a matter of perspective and how your draft goes.    I'm not a fan of paying the price of a 2nd round pick when I am reasonably sure Ican get the player. in round 3 or 4.   Even if I think he has that kind of upside.

It is also worth noting, You may target a guy like this in the latter half of round 3. but if you are drafting early in round 3, you probably take your chances and hope he falls to you in round 4 because while I do like the guy, there are points in the draft where you reach for a player and times when you do not.   and if a WR1 is available with good upside at this point in the draft you are taking him, not  Gaskin unless you are one of those guys who Grabbed a WR in round 1 and 2.    then maybe you grab the Best RB on the board and if Gaskin is that player, so be it.

either way, I'd argue 2nd round is likely too early for this guy even in PPR format.

best way to handle these kinds of players is to have your ADP list showing where they are usually being drafted.   then have your list of players in the order you have them ranked.

If the ADP of a player is 4.08 (which is likely in the range where Gaskin may be). you probably shouldnt even think about drafting him until the middle of round 3 even if you love the guy.

Remember, the name of the game is to get a guy who is more valuable than his draft position.   This is why I like Gaskin.   I think he will likely outperform his current draft position.

This is the takeaway you should be taking from my comments.   I may think he has a chance to give you RB1 upside but if hes being drafted as a low end RB2 and you get him for that price, you have a solid chance to outperform the draft slot and thats a win.

But if you draft him in round 2 because thats when the low end RB1's are being drafted, you just sold the farm and now that pick only helps you if he far exceeds his expected production.

You NEVER draft a player at the point of their maximum upside.   That number is just a best case scenario assuming the back maintains good health and the team performs well resulting in positive game scripts for the RB.

Nice thing about pass catching backs is a negative game script still means they put up numbers because they can participate in the pass game.  

So there is a bit less risk with that type of player.

Either way, Lets cut the expectation that hes a 2nd round pick ok?   Hes not.

But If you get him at his ADP he could turn into a nice pickup for you.

[weepaws 2,450]

Agreed. 

[tanatastic 2,061]

Yea I’m def not drafting a Dolphin in rnd 2. Sometimes you have to just think about the team you are drafting into and the expectations for that team. After the run on RBs it’s really hard to pass up the stud wrs in rnd 2. I think by draft day he will be going rnd 3 to the guys who are high on him and the ones who aren’t will be hoping he slips to rnd 5 which I don’t see. 

[AxeElf 787]

On 5/6/2021 at 10:35 PM, AxeElf said:

Gaskin showed decent talent, but it's not like he doesn't have some competition, especially at the goalline, as the coaching staff showed the willingness to use Jordan Howard almost exclusively in that role last season.  If you think Gaskin becomes the bellcow, you take the swing.

Axe Elf recommends against it, unless you get really good value or something.  For my draft capital, I'd take Mike Davis at that price any day.

 

On 5/20/2021 at 12:14 AM, AxeElf said:

Why?  What's changed?  It's the same coaching staff as last year--you know, when Jordan Howard scored a TD in 4 of the 5 games in which he appeared?  He had 60 yards rushing on 35 attempts, and still vultured 4 TDs.  In 5 games.  I really think Malcolm Brown might get even more usage than Jordan Howard did, but if all he does is get a rushing TD every game like Howard did, that's gonna be about 60 fantasy points that Gaskin doesn't get--even if Gaskin is averaging 18 touches per game.  That's bad enough in PPR, but in standard scoring, it would be huge.

It looks like Matt Waldman at Football Guys agrees with Axe Elf, including Malcolm Brown in his article on 8 players who could have career years in 2021:

"I expect Brown to earn 175-220 carries in this offense and lead the team in yards-per-carry and rushing touchdowns. If Gaskin gets hurt, Brown could be a 1,000-yard rusher with 7-10 scores if Tua Tagovailoa plays to his ability."

Sounds like a RBBC situation to me.

[weepaws 2,450]

Don’t think Waldman as anything to do with how the team uses their players , cheap reporter talk.  

But I like this type of talk it should maybe help lower Gaskins adp.  

Thanks. 

[DrG 94]

Waldman’s prediction could be accurate. Gaskin produced, but may not have the frame to last as a workhorse. I also don’t recall how well Tua throws to RBS. Didn’t read the article, but this suggests Brown, not Ahmed would be next man up.

[weepaws 2,450]

Don’t think there is any question that M Brown was brought on board to be the next one up. 

And I do think he’ll gander work in short yardage goal line work.  

Unless Gaskin gets injured I think he’ll be the rb 1, I don’t see brown earning 175 plus carries. 

Gaskin has the 12 most rec last season , but in only ten games.  

Do hope the M Brown love keeps getting larger, better for Gaskins ADP. 

[Ray_T 587]

ok, so we know where Gaskin Stands.

Hes clearly the leader but I'd still classify it as a committee.

among RB's here are the stats

Name                              Rush           catches       targets         Rush + targets

Gaskin                              9                     5                  5                       14

Brown                               5                     0                  0                       5

Ahmed                              3                     2                  3                       6

                                           17                   7                   8                      25

 

so Gaskin got 9 out of 17 total carries (just over 50%) but if you factor in targets in the pass game he got 14 out of 25 attempts to target the RB. (56%)

I'd say Gaskin is definitely the starter, but at this point I would classify this as a committee but barely. (I consider it to be committee if the lead back gets less than 60% of touches)

Keep in mind this is a very good defense and I think gaskin played well.  hes the only RB who averaged more than 4 yards per carry, so he MAY be headed back to being the clear cut starter in future weeks.

also of note: Tua ran the ball 4 times and Jacoby Brissett (backup QB) ran the ball twice.

not sure this is normal, but when you have a small sample size like this it is worth noting.

[weepaws 2,450]

Gaskin without question is the Dolphins rb1.