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TBayXXXVII

Mayfield / Beckham

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Coincidence or important?

Odell Beckham Jr got hurt on the first pass play of the game in Week 7 last year, against the Bengals.  That play resulted in an interception.  The next 4 passes that Mayfield threw, were incomplete... after that, Mayfield went 22 for 23 for 297 yards and 5 TD's.  Coincidence... or important?

In Mayfield's first 6 games (with Beckham), he completed 60.6% of his passes for 1095 yards (182.5 per game), with 10 TD's and 6 Int's.  His yards per attempt were 6.44 and he had a 84.3 passer rating.  After the Beckham injury, Mayfield completed 63.9% of his passes for 2468 yards (246.8 per game), with 16 TD's and 2 Int's.  His yards per attempt were 7.81 and he had a 102.1 passer rating.  (to note, since Beckham got hurt on the 2nd play of the game... first pass play, I'm counting Week 7 as "without Beckham"). Coincidence... or important?

Beckham got to Cleveland in 2019, Mayfield's 2nd season... arguably his worst.  In that year, he completed less than 60% of his passes, had 1 more TD than Int's, and a passer rating under 79.  Coincidence... or important?

Mayfield has played in 46 games in his career... 24 without Beckham and 22 with him.  In his 24 without Beckham, he (the Browns), are 14-10... Mayfield completed 63.8% of his passes for 6193 yards (258 per game), with 43 TD's and 16 Int's.  He averaged 7.7 yards per attempt and has a 97.02 passer rating.  In his 22 games with Beckham, he (the Browns), are 10-12... Mayfield completed 59.7% of his passes for 4922 yards (223 per game), with 32 TD's and 27 Int's.  He averaged 6.99 yards per attempt and has a 80.10 passer rating.  Coincidence... or important?

For fantasy purposes... in the 24 games without Beckham, Mayfield averaged 17.9 ppg and with him, he averaged 15.1 ppg.  Coincidence... or important?  Last year, a QB who averaged 17.9 ppg ranked 16th (among QB's with at least 9 starts), where as at 15.1, that QB ranked 24th.  A QB who ranks 24th in 1 QB leagues, isn't draftable... but 16th is.  At 16th, for a young/mobile QB, could be thought of as a potential starter with projected improvements... at 24th, not sure you'd do anything more than take a flyer on him.

I play in a 2QB league, so he's draftable either way, but where?  Keep in mind, last year, in the 6 games with Beckham, Mayfield averaged 13.6 fpg and in the other 10, averaged 17.7 fpg.  If I'm getting "startable Mayfield, that's 7th round"... if I'm getting "backup" Mayfield, that's like round 15... possibly a QB3 (with hopes that he's startable in some matchups).

Thoughts?

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I think we saw Mayfield simply maturing last season, unless your in a eight team league, than he’s starting material.  I think he’s differently a top 20 Qb. 

 

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Sounds like maybe he was forcing it to Beckham.

But what’s your point? OBJ is still on the Browns, no?

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Not a coincidence. Beckham sucks balls. They need to ship him out.

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Living in Cleveland I can tell you this issue pops up on a semi-regular basis in the local sports media. The overwhelming majority believe it is merely coincidence, and OBJ isn't the reason Baker struggled. I'm not so sold as it looked to me like Baker was pressing, and not going through his progressions as naturally when OBJ was in there. When he got hurt, it certainly appeared as if Baker was using the whole field and guys like Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones were getting involved. Then again many people who know far more about football than me keep asserting that OBJ will help Baker if anything. Tough situation to read but in a 2 QB league I wouldn't shy away from him as my #2.

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With the return of Mccaffery, I would rather take Darnold as my second Qb. 

 

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16 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think we saw Mayfield simply maturing last season, unless your in a eight team league, than he’s starting material.  I think he’s differently a top 20 Qb. 

 

He might have matured, but that doesn't explain why he was better in his rookie season without Beckham than in his second season, with Beckham.  Sure, "sophomore slump", but I don't buy that.  That doesn't happen like it used to.  There's too much information available these days.

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13 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Sounds like maybe he was forcing it to Beckham.

But what’s your point? OBJ is still on the Browns, no?

Yes, I think he's forcing it to Beckham.  My point is, as it relates to fantasy, with Beckham on the team, should we have reduced expectations for Mayfield.  Without Beckham, Mayfield was a borderline starter... with him, he's a backend bench / waiver wire, option.  That's a pretty substantial difference.

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17 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Coincidence or important?

Odell Beckham Jr got hurt on the first pass play of the game in Week 7 last year, against the Bengals.  That play resulted in an interception.  The next 4 passes that Mayfield threw, were incomplete... after that, Mayfield went 22 for 23 for 297 yards and 5 TD's.  Coincidence... or important?

In Mayfield's first 6 games (with Beckham), he completed 60.6% of his passes for 1095 yards (182.5 per game), with 10 TD's and 6 Int's.  His yards per attempt were 6.44 and he had a 84.3 passer rating.  After the Beckham injury, Mayfield completed 63.9% of his passes for 2468 yards (246.8 per game), with 16 TD's and 2 Int's.  His yards per attempt were 7.81 and he had a 102.1 passer rating.  (to note, since Beckham got hurt on the 2nd play of the game... first pass play, I'm counting Week 7 as "without Beckham"). Coincidence... or important?

Beckham got to Cleveland in 2019, Mayfield's 2nd season... arguably his worst.  In that year, he completed less than 60% of his passes, had 1 more TD than Int's, and a passer rating under 79.  Coincidence... or important?

Mayfield has played in 46 games in his career... 24 without Beckham and 22 with him.  In his 24 without Beckham, he (the Browns), are 14-10... Mayfield completed 63.8% of his passes for 6193 yards (258 per game), with 43 TD's and 16 Int's.  He averaged 7.7 yards per attempt and has a 97.02 passer rating.  In his 22 games with Beckham, he (the Browns), are 10-12... Mayfield completed 59.7% of his passes for 4922 yards (223 per game), with 32 TD's and 27 Int's.  He averaged 6.99 yards per attempt and has a 80.10 passer rating.  Coincidence... or important?

For fantasy purposes... in the 24 games without Beckham, Mayfield averaged 17.9 ppg and with him, he averaged 15.1 ppg.  Coincidence... or important?  Last year, a QB who averaged 17.9 ppg ranked 16th (among QB's with at least 9 starts), where as at 15.1, that QB ranked 24th.  A QB who ranks 24th in 1 QB leagues, isn't draftable... but 16th is.  At 16th, for a young/mobile QB, could be thought of as a potential starter with projected improvements... at 24th, not sure you'd do anything more than take a flyer on him.

I play in a 2QB league, so he's draftable either way, but where?  Keep in mind, last year, in the 6 games with Beckham, Mayfield averaged 13.6 fpg and in the other 10, averaged 17.7 fpg.  If I'm getting "startable Mayfield, that's 7th round"... if I'm getting "backup" Mayfield, that's like round 15... possibly a QB3 (with hopes that he's startable in some matchups).

Thoughts?

Thoughts? 
 

get laid 

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10 minutes ago, Crestwood 2 said:

Thoughts? 
 

get laid 

Yeah, what was I thinking... post a fantasy football question on a fantasy football message board. :doh:

😂

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Maybe I’m wrong , but it looks like last season with Beckham he avg 18 points per game, and without Beckham he avg 19points per game, now that includes all games played without Beckham. 

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27 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Maybe I’m wrong , but it looks like last season with Beckham he avg 18 points per game, and without Beckham he avg 19points per game, now that includes all games played without Beckham. 

You're probably counting the game that Beckham got hurt as "with Beckham".  I didn't because he got hurt on the second play of the game.  I have a hard time calling that a game "with Beckham", when he only played 2 snaps.

Mayfield threw for almost 300 yards that game, with 5 TD.

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All I know is that it shows Beckham played in seven games last season, so I simply added Mayfield ff points in those games and than the rest of the season without. 

About the same.  

If it’s a ten plus team league two starting QBs per team, I would trust him to be a top 20 Qb. 

But like I also said , I would target Darnold as a second Qb over Mayfield.  

 

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54 minutes ago, weepaws said:

All I know is that it shows Beckham played in seven games last season, so I simply added Mayfield ff points in those games and than the rest of the season without. 

About the same.  

If it’s a ten plus team league two starting QBs per team, I would trust him to be a top 20 Qb. 

But like I also said , I would target Darnold as a second Qb over Mayfield.  

 

If you take the points from that game and put it with the "Without" games, you end up with 20 fpg without and 16 with.

Sorry, I'm not counting a game where Beckham played 2 snaps as a game "With" Beckham.

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Nope I understand it’s all good, I don’t see that much of a difference. 

Also I did  notice it took some time for Mayfield and the Browns to adjust without  Beckham, Mayfield first three games starting week eight without Beckham he avg just 9 points per game, and didn’t post more than 11 points in of those three games . 

I think Beckham is more of a help mate than not. 

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I'm more inclined to disagree.  I'm putting Mayfield really far down on my draft board.  He'll be a QB3.  Now, I play in a 2QB league, so it's possible I take him... really late, but I certainly won't be targeting him.

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Ok with me, I’m not a fan either. But I do think Beckham is more more of a help than a hindrance, I think those first three games without him, and Mayfield whole body of work last season shows that. 

I would rather have Darnold, and I’m not a fan of his either. 

And in my 14 team non ppr, I’ve drafted my Qb with my very last pick in my draft before , and never before my fourth to last pick, so Darnold and Mayfield our my targets, until the season starts rolling, and owners start dropping qbs.  

One more question if that’s ok, what size league it is? 

I played in a two Qb league many years back but it was only a ten team ppr league. 

It was kept that way to still have qbs available for a third Qb on ones roster, 12 plus teams would be tough to do a two Qb league. 

Hey thanks for the responses it’s been a great way to enjoy this day.  

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Welp, OBJ or no OBJ, the Browns will be digging out of an 0-1 hole after Week 1.

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He was on fire his first 3 seasons, and that really went to his head.

Since then he's been a flex option when healthy.

The giants let him go for a reason, I think the Browns may have that same issue.

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He was 21st in non ppr based on avg points per game with an avg of nine points per game. 

Thats a low wr2 or very high wr3. 

We need to revalue him is all, he’s not the wr1 that he was with the Gmen. 

I would agree, flex spot wr 3 best place to redraft him.  

Amen. 

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