AxeElf 787 Posted May 19, 2021 Just looking at the current ADPs for a 12-team PPR draft on Fantasy Football Calculator, how would you feel about the following start to your draft? Drafting from the 6-slot... 1.6 Travis Kelce (ADP 1.9) 2.7 Pat Mahomes (ADP 2.9) 3.6 CeeDee Lamb (ADP 4.9) 4.7 Robert Woods (ADP 4.9) 5.6 Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 5.11) 6.7 Najee Harris (ADP 7.6) 7.6 Mike Davis (ADP 7.6) I don't really do snake drafts, and I don't usually pick QBs and TEs early, but given the RB values in the 7th round, I'd be all over that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jrokh 567 Posted May 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, AxeElf said: Just looking at the current ADPs for a 12-team PPR draft on Fantasy Football Calculator, how would you feel about the following start to your draft? Drafting from the 6-slot... 1.6 Travis Kelce (ADP 1.9) 2.7 Pat Mahomes (ADP 2.9) 3.6 CeeDee Lamb (ADP 4.9) 4.7 Robert Woods (ADP 4.9) 5.6 Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 5.11) 6.7 Najee Harris (ADP 7.6) 7.6 Mike Davis (ADP 7.6) I don't really do snake drafts, and I don't usually pick QBs and TEs early, but given the RB values in the 7th round, I'd be all over that. Najee Harris available at 6.7? Zero chance Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 19, 2021 1 minute ago, jrokh said: Najee Harris available at 6.7? Zero chance Hey, his current ADP is 7.6. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jrokh 567 Posted May 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, AxeElf said: Hey, his current ADP is 7.6. Then I question the relevance of the source Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 19, 2021 Just now, jrokh said: Then I question the relevance of the source I'll allow it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike FF Today 607 Posted May 19, 2021 I'm in agreement with jrokh here. I think you're going to find Harris going in Round 2 in most real drafts this summer. Even Mike Davis in Round 7 is way too low. I think Fantasy Calculator's ADP might be including too many pre-NFL Draft mocks in their data. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 19, 2021 J Robinson has an ADP right now on ffc at 2.8. Not a lot of stock in ffc right now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 19, 2021 4 hours ago, Mike FF Today said: I'm in agreement with jrokh here. I think you're going to find Harris going in Round 2 in most real drafts this summer. Yeah, but that's kind of the point about early ADPs, and why there are guys on RTSports who have probably already drafted 50 leagues--because of the spring values. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 585 Posted May 20, 2021 15 hours ago, Mike FF Today said: I'm in agreement with jrokh here. I think you're going to find Harris going in Round 2 in most real drafts this summer. Even Mike Davis in Round 7 is way too low. I think Fantasy Calculator's ADP might be including too many pre-NFL Draft mocks in their data. well, mock drafts right now have little to no hype. once the hype train starts rolling you wont get him this cheap. Thats the way hype works. It is not often a hyped up rookie blows the doors off and wins you a draft. there are always exceptions (Zeke). but its atypical. The guy who gets a rookie for cheap because hes not expected to make an impact until year 2 and that rookie blows the doors off..... thats the guy winning the draft if it pans out. Not usually the guy who spends a first or second rounder on a rookie. at the price of a first or second rounder, that player better be a top 7-10 player at his position in his rookie year. otherwise you've wasted a high pick. Even if hes just top 10, you want your first round pick to be better than that. and if hes not top 10, that could be the pick that ruins your draft. it may be fine for keeper/dynasty. but in redraft drafting rookies in round 1+2 is usually a mistake. There are always exceptions, but if you are doing it, do it knowing the odds are against you. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 20, 2021 It sure looks like Harris is in a situation to be worthy of a late 2nd round value as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2, and the Alabama RBs before him add a few more probability points to his odds than most rookies possess. I'm circling Week 15 on the calendar when the Steelers and Harris host Tennessee and Henry. We could see 400 yards rushing... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,652 Posted May 20, 2021 Go do a best ball draft on MFL and then get back to us Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 20, 2021 9 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said: Go do a best ball draft on MFL and then get back to us I could do one on every site out there, but I'm not sure if they would be as provocative. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 27, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 8:23 PM, AxeElf said: 1.6 Travis Kelce (ADP 1.9) 2.7 Pat Mahomes (ADP 2.9) 3.6 CeeDee Lamb (ADP 4.9) 4.7 Robert Woods (ADP 4.9) 5.6 Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 5.11) 6.7 Najee Harris (ADP 7.6) 7.6 Mike Davis (ADP 7.6) As of today, the only movement has been: Robert Woods is now 4.8. Najee Harris has crept into the 6th round at 6.11. Mike Davis is also up a few points to 7.1, probly on the basis of the Falcons NOT drafting a RB. Everyone else remains steady... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 27, 2021 I hope M Davis adp and his rb ranking stays close to what it is today. N i think he as low rb1 potential. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lesjroza 70 Posted May 28, 2021 (edited) On 5/26/2021 at 8:34 PM, AxeElf said: As of today, the only movement has been: Robert Woods is now 4.8. Najee Harris has crept into the 6th round at 6.11. Mike Davis is also up a few points to 7.1, probly on the basis of the Falcons NOT drafting a RB. Everyone else remains steady... The ADP source I mentioned in the other thread regarding Mostert, which is actual FFPC drafts (for real $$) for the month of May (completion post NFL Draft) has M. Davis at 54 or mid-5th round. For reference this would be RB25 sandwiched between Hunt (RB24) and Javonte Williams (RB26). If the Falcons do not sign another RB I would assume Davis trends up from here (especially following the leg pictures which circulated heavily mid month). L. Bell is an example of a RB that could still sign in Atl that may inject enough uncertainty to help keep a lid on Davis ADP. I think many ADP sources weight all previous drafts as heavily as a draft that happens today meaning they lag reality sometimes in a big way for awhile especially post news. Very tough to make a realistic draft plan or glean market based relative trade values on stale ADP IMO. Najee Harris is RB12, pick number 18 or Mid-2nd round FWIW so that's a very, very tough get for the plan Woods pick 51, WR 19 so he is the one you have a chance at getting Edited May 28, 2021 by lesjroza Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Shepherd 10 Posted May 30, 2021 On 5/19/2021 at 3:31 AM, AxeElf said: Hey, his current ADP is 7.6. No way in Hades - he'll be round 2 by August. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 30, 2021 6 hours ago, The Shepherd said: No way in Hades I didn't think I would have to take a screen shot to prove it to you, but I have no reason to lie--his current ADP was 7.6. 6 hours ago, The Shepherd said: he'll be round 2 by August. He's pretty much Round 2 now, but averages tend to fall behind trends. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 30, 2021 3 hours ago, AxeElf said: I didn't think I would have to take a screen shot to prove it to you, but I have no reason to lie--his current ADP was 7.6. He's pretty much Round 2 now, but averages tend to fall behind trends. He's moving up the charts rapidly. He's up to 6.10 on May 30 He probably will be 2nd round by the time most people do their drafts for real unless something weird happens Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 30, 2021 Harris is already a late round two pick. M Davis is moving up also, darn. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 31, 2021 5 hours ago, AxeElf said: I didn't think I would have to take a screen shot to prove it to you, but I have no reason to lie--his current ADP was 7.6. He's pretty much Round 2 now, but averages tend to fall behind trends. Calm down Francis no one was saying that you were laying , that poster was just stating the obvious. Hey I saw that the ADP for kicker M Gay of the Rams is moving on up, and I know how much you like drafting kickers early, your welcome. Hope this finds you healthy and filled with peace comfort and joy. Amen. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites