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jrokh

Official Julio Jones Trade Rumors Thread

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

This is the source for that rumor. My question is why do reporters keep saying 'future first round pick'? Obviously it is a future first since the draft just happened, or do they mean not a 2022 1st?

 

 

 

 

57 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Yeah I caught that too. Don’t know why it would be later than 2022

I think they word it that way is that there are/were, too many people who would take that to mean a prior (or most recently used), first round pick.

 

I can see how it could be later than 2022... a team might not own a 2022 first round pick.

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I think that would be very difficult for the Titans to have two wr1 in ff with Henry still being with the Titans.  

Last season C Davis had his best season ever, and when I look at his numbers I can see those number next to Jones name, just simply based on the teams run first style of game. 

I think their current te Firkser is going to be a sneaky pick this season, I expect for him to be a low te one this season. 

So I don’t see all those targets going to Jones. 

Last year, Brown had 106 targets.  Prior to getting hurt last year, Jones had more than 106 targets in each of his 6 seasons.  He IS a "go-to" guy.  Corey Davis had 92 targets last year, 14 less than Brown... indicating to me, that Brown is NOT a "go-to" guy in the minds of the Tennessee staff.

Firkser may be fine, I won't doubt that, but with Smith and Davis gone, 157 targets are available.  I think Tennessee starts to run the ball a little less this year now that Henry is signed for 3 more years.  In 2019, he got 321 touches and 397 last year.  I think that number drops down to the 2019 number as they hope to maximize his time while in Tennessee.  The other 3 RB's on that team combined for 83 carries.  I don't envision that number increasing too much.  I expect Josh Reynolds to fill the void of Davis, but I don't expect the rest of that team to demand touches.  If Jones goes there, he will demand the touches.  I can see both Jones and Brown getting about 100-120 target range.  I think the only difference will be TD's.  Considering that Jones will be going to a team with a better QB, I expect him to be more productive in Tennessee than he was in Atlanta.

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30 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Last year, Brown had 106 targets.  Prior to getting hurt last year, Jones had more than 106 targets in each of his 6 seasons.  He IS a "go-to" guy.  Corey Davis had 92 targets last year, 14 less than Brown... indicating to me, that Brown is NOT a "go-to" guy in the minds of the Tennessee staff.

Firkser may be fine, I won't doubt that, but with Smith and Davis gone, 157 targets are available.  I think Tennessee starts to run the ball a little less this year now that Henry is signed for 3 more years.  In 2019, he got 321 touches and 397 last year.  I think that number drops down to the 2019 number as they hope to maximize his time while in Tennessee.  The other 3 RB's on that team combined for 83 carries.  I don't envision that number increasing too much.  I expect Josh Reynolds to fill the void of Davis, but I don't expect the rest of that team to demand touches.  If Jones goes there, he will demand the touches.  I can see both Jones and Brown getting about 100-120 target range.  I think the only difference will be TD's.  Considering that Jones will be going to a team with a better QB, I expect him to be more productive in Tennessee than he was in Atlanta.

I think he’ll be as productive as Davis was last season.  Jones average one more point per game last season than C Davis  

 he won’t be a wr1  

They resign Henry to use Henry , he’s going to touch the ball more than he did in 2019, I think he’ll split 2019 and 2020 as touches go  

 

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10 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think he’ll be as productive as Davis was last season.  Jones average one more point per game last season than C Davis  

 he won’t be a wr1  

They resign Henry to use Henry , he’s going to touch the ball more than he did in 2019, I think he’ll split 2019 and 2020 as touches go  

 

Fair enough.  Agree to disagree.

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3 hours ago, Mike FF Today said:

 

Things are starting to heat up Hawks are another rumor and this one belongs to a team previously listed as a longshot, now could be the frontrunner. Makes the most sense to me...

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

Injury waiting to happen.

Funny thing is before last season he had only missed 4 games in his last 6 seasons.  

But he has a lot of games that he’s just been awful in since 2018 he’s played in 40 games and in 12 of those games he scored less than 8 points , and I’ve owned him a couple of times and he’s a very frustrating player to own based on his high ADP.  

I don’t see him being a wr1 going forward, a wr2 more like it.  

I hope this finds you healthy and filled with peace comfort and joy.  

Am

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On 5/30/2021 at 7:59 PM, weepaws said:

But he has a lot of games that he’s just been awful in since 2018 he’s played in 40 games and in 12 of those games he scored less than 8 points , and I’ve owned him a couple of times and he’s a very frustrating player to own based on his high ADP.  

You can include 2016 & 2017 to that as well.  Really, 2014 and 2015 are the outliers, not the norm.

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I would NOT give up a first round pick for him. At this point in his career, with that contract and injury history, he’s in 3rd + 5th territory IMO

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22 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I would NOT give up a first round pick for him. At this point in his career, with that contract and injury history, he’s in 3rd + 5th territory IMO

"That" contract and "injury history"?  Jones will make $15M this year, that's high, but it's not bank breaking.  The next 2 years are just over $11.5M each.  That's not a bad contract at all.  What injury history are you referring to?  He's played in at least 14 games in each of the 6 seasons prior to last year... playing in 92 of 96 games.  He's been quite durable.  Even last year with his in and out availability, his 9 game total was on pace for a 91 catch and 1370 yard season.  I'm thinking that if teams could get 14 games of 82 receptions for 1100 yards, they'd be fine with paying him $38M over the next 3 years.

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8 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

"That" contract and "injury history"?  Jones will make $15M this year, that's high, but it's not bank breaking.  The next 2 years are just over $11.5M each.  That's not a bad contract at all.  What injury history are you referring to?  He's played in at least 14 games in each of the 6 seasons prior to last year... playing in 92 of 96 games.  He's been quite durable.  Even last year with his in and out availability, his 9 game total was on pace for a 91 catch and 1370 yard season.  I'm thinking that if teams could get 14 games of 82 receptions for 1100 yards, they'd be fine with paying him $38M over the next 3 years.

Guy has missed about 20% of games over his career and now he’s 32 years old. It’s an issue.

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1 minute ago, IGotWorms said:

Guy has missed about 20% of games over his career and now he’s 32 years old. It’s an issue.

Well, 16%, but he's missed 25 games in 10 years and half came in 2 seasons.  In the other  8 seasons, he's played in 94% of his games.  Yeah, he's 32, but he's been pretty durable.  He's also had over 1000 targets in the last 7 seasons.  Willing to bet he's top 3 in the NFL.  He won't get, nor need, 160+ targets a year on a team that's a contender, making him get hit less and be less susceptible to injury.  I think someone pays a 1st.  I can see the Colts giving up a 3rd this coming year and a 1st in 2023 because they don't know what they'll have in 2022 yet.  I can see Tennessee ponying up a 1st and 4th.

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5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Well, 16%, but he's missed 25 games in 10 years and half came in 2 seasons.  In the other  8 seasons, he's played in 94% of his games.  Yeah, he's 32, but he's been pretty durable.  He's also had over 1000 targets in the last 7 seasons.  Willing to bet he's top 3 in the NFL.  He won't get, nor need, 160+ targets a year on a team that's a contender, making him get hit less and be less susceptible to injury.  I think someone pays a 1st.  I can see the Colts giving up a 3rd this coming year and a 1st in 2023 because they don't know what they'll have in 2022 yet.  I can see Tennessee ponying up a 1st and 4th.

It only takes one, so you’re probably right. But speaking as a Pats fan, I would be pretty nervous if they gave up a 1.

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1 minute ago, IGotWorms said:

It only takes one, so you’re probably right. But speaking as a Pats fan, I would be pretty nervous if they gave up a 1.

I don't think the Patriots are going to get him, so I don't think you'll have to worry about that.  Besides, it's not like the Patriots have had a lot of success drafting players in the 1st round anyway.

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5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't think the Patriots are going to get him, so I don't think you'll have to worry about that.  Besides, it's not like the Patriots have had a lot of success drafting players in the 1st round anyway.

They’ve been pretty money in the first. It’s the second that has killed them, and receiver in any round 😢

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10 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

They’ve been pretty money in the first. It’s the second that has killed them, and receiver in any round 😢

They have?  Didn't the last guy they took in round 1 (Wynn?), miss his first season and only play half the games over the next two?  N'Keal Harry and Michel were 1st's too right?  Prior to him, was Malcom Brown, whom they didn't even pick up his 5th year option if I remember correctly (I have a cousin who's a Dolphin's fan, so I hear it all the time, lol - he complains how overrated Belichick is. Gotta love it).  Anyway, I think he was right about that in one aspect.  The last time the Patriots drafted a player in the 1st round who saw a second contract was Nate Solder in the 2011 draft.  Now, I do know they traded their 1st's a lot, so maybe that's why they don't have a ton of success lately with them.  :dunno:

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

They have?  Didn't the last guy they took in round 1 (Wynn?), miss his first season and only play half the games over the next two?  N'Keal Harry and Michel were 1st's too right?  Prior to him, was Malcom Brown, whom they didn't even pick up his 5th year option if I remember correctly (I have a cousin who's a Dolphin's fan, so I hear it all the time, lol - he complains how overrated Belichick is. Gotta love it).  Anyway, I think he was right about that in one aspect.  The last time the Patriots drafted a player in the 1st round who saw a second contract was Nate Solder in the 2011 draft.  Now, I do know they traded their 1st's a lot, so maybe that's why they don't have a ton of success lately with them.  :dunno:

I guess you have a point. They were dominating 2001-2012 but it’s been iffy since then. Several years they didn’t have one due to scandal or trades.

Wynn is good and Michel helped them win a super bowl. Harry sucks ass though, Easley was a bust and Brown was mediocre.

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My guess is that the buying price dropped when it came out that Jones wanted out.  I have a hard time believing that a team like Indy or Tennessee (who could use a guy like Jones), wouldn't pony up a 1 if there's multiple teams interested.

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21 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

My guess is that the buying price dropped when it came out that Jones wanted out.  I have a hard time believing that a team like Indy or Tennessee (who could use a guy like Jones), wouldn't pony up a 1 if there's multiple teams interested.

Once again, he’s getting old and there are injury issues. I stand by a 3 and a 5 though I wouldn’t be surprised if someone talks themselves into giving up a 2.

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46 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

My guess is that the buying price dropped when it came out that Jones wanted out.  I have a hard time believing that a team like Indy or Tennessee (who could use a guy like Jones), wouldn't pony up a 1 if there's multiple teams interested.

Certainly didn’t help when he told Sharpe he’s outta there. The other issue is his contract. Teams are likely willing to give up a 2nd or maybe even a first if Atlanta eats some money. They just don’t want to do both, which obviously the Falcons are holding out for.

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26 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Once again, he’s getting old and there are injury issues. I stand by a 3 and a 5 though I wouldn’t be surprised if someone talks themselves into giving up a 2.

You could end up being right on the compensation.

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

Certainly didn’t help when he told Sharpe he’s outta there. The other issue is his contract. Teams are likely willing to give up a 2nd or maybe even a first if Atlanta eats some money. They just don’t want to do both, which obviously the Falcons are holding out for.

Yeah, I'm thinking the interview with Sharpe is what would be the biggest catalyst on the sinking buying price.  I would be surprised as to the contract being an issue though (unless it's coming from Jones and not the Falcons).  Whomever gets him is only responsible for the base pay and any guaranteed money tied to the base pay.  Virtually all of his money is in base pay.  Any team trading for him could easily restructure his deal and lessen the impact on this year and push some of the money to next year and the year after... or the year or two after that in voidable years when the cap is expected to be much higher.  I don't know why Jones would be hesitant on a restructure.  Any team trading for him could cut him after the 2021 season and he'd lose out on $23M.  He won't get $23M in the following 2 seasons with a new team.

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I'm seeing news blurbs that he's going to Tennessee for a second.

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J Gage and Pitts And Hurst  value is going up even more now. 

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