Had to Get One In Before Memorial Day

[AxeElf 787]

Number Nine Number Nine Number Nine (#55)

There's something magical about a midnight auction draft in the wee hours of a weekend night just a few days before the season kicks off.  This one was a $100 Yahoo Public Prize League (10 teams, half-PPR, singleflex).

I gave this team the name, "Team of Extraordinary Genitals" before the draft, as a part of my Classic Fantasy Football Team Names Series (also including Victorious Secret, It's On Like Ndamukong, Stakes on the Gridiron, Snake Pigsskin, Sons of Overtime, and Mike Ditka in a Box).

I didn't have this planned at the time, but when you see it, you'll understand why the name turned out to be entirely apropos.

But first, I have to tell you about the salmon team... With the 9th nomination in the draft, he jump-bid Kelce from like $40 to $57--and won him, of course.  With the 11th nomination in the draft, I bid him up to $35 on Mahomes, but then he jump-bid me to $42 and I was like... dude... yours.  With the 18th nomination in the draft, he pays $53 for Davante Adams.  With the 24th nomination in the draft, he pays $27 for Kittle to corner the market on top 4 TEs. And by the 31st nomination in the draft, he was in the dollar store the rest of the way, after paying $11 for Raheem Mostert.  His other RBs are Mark Ingram, J.D. McKissic, and Todd Gurley.  His other WRs are Sterling Shepard, Jarvis Landry and T.Y. Hilton.

So that's one down, 8 to go...

And now MY team...

QB:  Dak Prescott $14, Kirk Cousins $7

RB: Ezekiel Elliott $53, Najee Harris $48, Zack Moss $2, Devin Singletary $2

WR:  Justin Jefferson $30, CeeDee Lamb $20, Diontae Johnson $15, Mike Williams $2, Marvin Jones, Jr. $2

TE:  Jared Cook $1, Chris Herndon IV $1

K:  Greg Zeurlein $1

D/ST:  Washington Football Team $2

REMAINING:  $0

Have you seen it yet?

No?

I'll give you another moment, but I've already sent an open message to the league, questioning whether or not my Week 7 opponent has the balls to face me D on D...

I'd like to lie to you and tell you that I had the Pittsburgh D, but I can't risk my eternal salvation by breaking a commandment just for a silly fantasy football team.  No, the Washington D came out with the 8th nomination, and I had already purchased them for $2 by the time I figured out what direction the draft was taking me.  But I will tell you that I'm considering trying to TRADE for the Pittsburgh D, straight up.  We both paid $2 for them, so surely he could grant me that indulgence.  The only thing that's holding me back is that my Week 7 opponent does have the Rams D, so he might be goaded into axually facing me D on D in Week 7--which would mean I'd have a fighting chance of winning the only week that I won't be at full strength, the only week in which every other single one of my players will be on bye!

Wouldn't THAT be something!  A Team of Extraordinary Genitals indeed!

It's kind of funny that I got to dump my last $7 on Kirk Cousins (only one other person had $7 left)--and that technically, this draft took place on the 7th day of the week.

And on the 7th week, they rested...

5 to go...

[AxeElf 787]

Number Ten (#56)

Din't want to wait until the last minute today, so I dropped my last $5 Yahoo Best Ball this evening, expecting a $10 on Monday and a $20 on Wednesday to wrap the drafting.  Having had like 5 straight drafts from the back end, I probly should have done them in reverse order and dropped the $20 today, because of course I got the #2 slot.  Ce la vie.

But being that it was only a $5 league, I figured I'd experiment a little.  I thought maybe after Henry, go WR/WR at the 2/3 turn, hoping to hop on the Gus Bus at the 4/5 turn, or even execute the Mostert/Sermon coup at the 6/7 turn.  And this almost worked out beautifully, as Hopkins was still on the board at 2.8 and I was all giddy over a Henry/Hopkins/Lamb start--but of course 2.8 snagged Hopkins.  Jefferson's probly the only other WR I'd want there, and he shares a bye with Lamb, so I snagged Mixon.  AND Gus.  AND the Mostert/Sermon coup.  Which of course means that with 5 RBs in the first 7 rounds, I kind of punted my WRs in hopes that some of my sleepers come through--and to make matters worse, Woods would have been my 5th round pick, but he was sniped on the 4/5 turn, so I had to settle for Aiyuk as my WR2.

But those RBs tho...

1.2 Derrick Henry

2.9 Joe Mixon

3.2 CeeDee Lamb

4.9 Gus Edwards

5.2 Brandon Aiyuk

6.9 Trey Sermon

7.2 Raheem Mostert

8.9 Kenny Golladay

9.2 Matthew Stafford

10.9 Kirk Cousins

11.2 Robert Tonyan

12.9 Evan Engram

13.2 Matt Ryan

14.9 Bryan Edwards

15.2 Tre'Quan Smith

16.9 Anthony Firkser

17.2 Amon-Ra St. Brown

4 to go...

[AxeElf 787]

Number Eleven (#57)

Good grief, I had to work for this one.

Today's draft was supposed to be my last Yahoo Private Prize League, and my biggest league of the year, a 16 teamer--but it didn't fill, so I'm currently shooting for a deep 14 teamer tomorrow afternoon instead--and I pivoted to my last remaining $10 Yahoo Best Ball League tonight.

Seems like there wasn't much interest in $10 Yahoo Best Ball Drafts tonight, though, and after sitting there with one other guy for 15 minutes, I went to do something else for a minute... which turned into more like ten minutes... and by the time I got back, I discovered I had drawn the #3 slot, and my first two players had been autodrafted for me!  OOOOoooo I hate that!!!

So who was I autodrafted for my #3 and #18 picks?  Ezekiel Elliott and Jonathan Taylor.

LOL.  I couldn't be TOO mad.  But I would have picked Henry over Zeke.  Dang autodraft.

At the time I joined the draft, it was just after my second pick, going into the 2/3 turn... and Mixon and Najee Harris were both still on the board?

WHAT???

That means I could have started Henry/Najee, if I had been paying attention.  I have four Henry/Najee starts from earlier in the summer, but the last one was in draft #37.  You just don't see Najee falling into the back half of the second round any more.  Maybe you get some Zeke/Najee starts from the 7 slot or something, but you just don't get Henry/Najee these days.  I had despaired of ever starting with that pair again, and here I could have done it in draft #57 on the Sunday before opening night.  Sigh.

Of course Mixon went at 3.1 and of course Najee went at 3.2, so even with the autodrafter, I came ONE PICK AWAY from a Zeke/Taylor/Najee start, which would obviously be insane.  I don't think anyone could even get that in an auction draft, and have any kind of a team behind them.  Double-sigh.

1.3 Derrick Henry Ezekiel Elliott

2.8 Najee Harris Jonathan Taylor

3.3 CeeDee Lamb

4.8 Robert Woods

5.3 Gus Edwards

6.8 Brandon Aiyuk - I thought about executing the Mostert/Sermon coup at the 6/7 turn again, but that would be pretty much just like my last draft--total RB overkill at the expense of my WRs--so I decided to flip-flop it entirely and double down on the WRs at the 6/7 turn instead.

7.3 Robby Anderson

8.8 Kenny Golladay

9.3 Matthew Stafford

10.8 Kirk Cousins - So I figure I'm getting either James Conner or Brandin Cooks here, with Kirk Cousins around the corner in the 11th.  Conner falls 10.3 and Cooks 10.4, so I just took Cousins here and gave myself the corner to figure out who I'd take next.  

11.3 Nyheim Hines - So Gesicki was still on the board, and I queued him up.  He falls at 11.2.  Now I kinda panic and I'm just like, ok, I need another RB, here's Hines.  Click.  Oh wait!  HINES? After Taylor was autodrafted to me??  Dumb.  Triple-sigh.  Yeah, this just wasn't my draft.

12.8 Matt Ryan

13.3 Mike Williams

14.8 Evan Engram

15.3 Jared Cook

16.8 Anthony Firkser

17.3 Mark Ingram II

3 to go...

[jeffkomlo 19]

GOOD GOD does this ever end? ....

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, jeffkomlo said:

GOOD GOD does this ever end? ....

In 3 days...

But I'm not God... I just look like Him.

[nobody 2,031]

If you drafted Stafford at 9.03, how did James Conner go 9.03?  Did you mean 9.04 and Cooks went 9.05?

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, nobody said:

If you drafted Stafford at 9.03, how did James Conner go 9.03?  Did you mean 9.04 and Cooks went 9.05?

My bad.  10.3 and 10.4, a few picks before I'd planned to take them at 10.8.  I'll fix it.

[nobody 2,031]

Oh.  That makes more sense.  I thought that was a bit early for those guys.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I'm currently shooting for a deep 14 teamer tomorrow afternoon instead

By the way, this one isn't full yet either, so if you want to come Pirating & Pillaging with me tomorrow afternoon (or tomorrow evening, depending on when it fills), this is the link:

Pirates & Pillagers

CAUTION:  This is a 14-team league with no Ks or Ds and fairly standard PPR scoring (all TDs 6 pts) with big distance bonuses.  Starting lineup is 1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex, & 2Superflex, with 10Bench and 2IR--with a $250 auction budget and FAAB waivers.

So we will not be playing nicely...

Oh, and the entry fee is $214...

Ahoy there, mateys...

 

[nobody 2,031]

8 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

By the way, this one isn't full yet either, so if you want to come Pirating & Pillaging with me tomorrow afternoon (or tomorrow evening, depending on when it fills), this is the link:

Pirates & Pillagers

CAUTION:  This is a 14-team league with no Ks or Ds and fairly standard PPR scoring (all TDs 6 pts) with big distance bonuses.  Starting lineup is 1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex, & 2Superflex, with 10Bench and 2IR--with a $250 auction budget and FAAB waivers.

So we will not be playing nicely...

Oh, and the entry fee is $214...

Ahoy there, mateys...

 

That's a deep ass league.  What's the strategy?  4 QBs?  

[AxeElf 787]

7 minutes ago, nobody said:

That's a deep ass league.  What's the strategy?  4 QBs?  

You can try, but there are going to be 13 other Pirates & Pillagers trying to do the same thing...

[weepaws 2,452]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

In 3 days...

But I'm not God... I just look like Him.

No you don’t. 

[AxeElf 787]

14 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Pirates & Pillagers

Looks like it's pushing to this evening... currently 9 pm EDT.

Everybody who can't stop yapping about wanting Axe Elf in their fantasy leagues has a choice to make here...

[AxeElf 787]

Okay, not enough Pirates, so the last of us jumped ship to a Monopoly themed auction draft, which after pushing back itself once, is now full and scheduled to begin at...

2AM EDT!!!

It's not as deep as the other one, only 12 teams, 2 RBs, and 1 Superflex (plus a D), compared to the other one, but I'd call that mildly deep--and it pays off $2000 for 1st place on a $250 entry fee!

Sure was a battle to get this last Yahoo Private Prize League in...  but I'll tell you how it goes tomorrow...

lol

EDIT:  OMG! THIS guy is in the Monopoly draft too!

On 9/4/2021 at 3:22 AM, AxeElf said:

But first, I have to tell you about the salmon team... With the 9th nomination in the draft, he jump-bid Kelce from like $40 to $57--and won him, of course.  With the 11th nomination in the draft, I bid him up to $35 on Mahomes, but then he jump-bid me to $42 and I was like... dude... yours.  With the 18th nomination in the draft, he pays $53 for Davante Adams.  With the 24th nomination in the draft, he pays $27 for Kittle to corner the market on top 4 TEs. And by the 31st nomination in the draft, he was in the dollar store the rest of the way, after paying $11 for Raheem Mostert.  His other RBs are Mark Ingram, J.D. McKissic, and Todd Gurley.  His other WRs are Sterling Shepard, Jarvis Landry and T.Y. Hilton.

 

[AxeElf 787]

Number Twelve (#58)

Ok, so Yahoo Private Prize League, $250 entry, 12 teams, pretty standard PPR scoring with small distance/yardage bonuses and 5 pt pass TDs for some reason.  Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex, 1Superflex and 1 DST, with 6Bench and 2IR.  Drafted from 2am until 5am EDT.  lol

So first the salmon guy—you know, the guy who went to the Dollar Store after buying Mahomes, Kelce, Adams, Kittle and Mostert in the draft where I took all Week 7 bye players?  Well, he didn’t learn anything.  He again got only five players before hitting the Dollar Store in this draft—Mahomes, Garoppolo, McCaffery, Kamara and Henderson.  Parenthetically, he also paid the two highest prices for any players in the draft with $70 for CMC and $60 for Kamara (with Cook coming in 3rd at $58, and Najee Harris 4th at $56!!).  By comparison, Zeke and Henry both went for $46.  And of course the highest price paid for a QB was his $41 bid on Mahomes (he only spent $3—his LAST $3—on Garoppolo).  His WRs are Jalen Reagor, Christian Kirk, T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, Emmanuel Sanders, Nelson Agholor and Randall Cobb.  RB depth consists of Tarik Cohen and Le’Veon Bell.  So that’s at least $350 that Salmon Guy has donated to the Axe Elf Christmas Fund.

You are appreciated, Salmon Guy, wherever you are!

Despite Salmon Guy’s exuberance, the rest of the league seemed to be kind of conservative at first, maybe in awe of the extra flex and superflex positions, so I was able to get Derrick Henry with the 13th nomination for some $10 less than CMC, Kamara and Cook.  I briefly had visions of a Henry/Najee backfield, but when Najee was the focus of the “last elite RB” bidding war, I had to drop out (he eventually went for $56, two dollars less than Dalvin Cook!).  It’s just as well anyway.  If I had spent more than the $28 I eventually paid for Chris Carson on my RB2, I probably wouldn’t have been able to get all the other players I eventually drafted (still wasn’t able to get Golladay).

So overall, I’m pretty pleased—I was able to fill out a complete starting roster for $190, with $10 left for my 6 bench slots, so I just started dropping $2 bids on the nominations of the Dollar Store shoppers until it was time to add my own last couple of $1 guys.

QB:  Matthew Stafford (11) $19, Kirk Cousins (7) $9, Tyrod Taylor (10) $2

RB:  Derrick Henry (13) $46, Chris Carson (9) $28, Damien Harris (14) $16, Mark Ingram II (10) $2

WR:  CeeDee Lamb (7) $26, Robert Woods (11) $20, Brandon Aiyuk (6) $14, Adam Thielen (7) $9, Marvin Jones, Jr. (7) $2, Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) $2, Bryan Edwards (8) $1

TE:  Mike Gesicki (14) $2, Evan Engram (10) $1

DST:  New England Patriots (14) $1

REMAINING:  $0

And now, my last auction tonight, about 6 hours from now, and then the final $20 Yahoo Best Ball league on Wednesday...

2 to go...

[nobody 2,031]

That kind of looks like a lot of your snake drafts except you seem to get everyone a round too early

1. Henry
2. CeeDee
3. Carson
4. Woods
5. D. Harris
6. Aiyuk
7. Stafford
8. Thielen
9. Cousins
10. Marvin Jones
11. Amon-Ra
12. Mike Gesicki
13. Tyrod
14. Mark Ingram
15. Engram
16. Edwards
17. Pats

[AxeElf 787]

Not sure where you're getting Thielen in the 8th, but I think of it as getting 7 players with ADPs in the first 5 rounds, including the #1 overall player.

There may not be a strong 2nd rounder in there, but Lamb, Carson, Woods, Harris, Aiyuk and Thielen all have ADPs between 30 and 60--which would equate to Rounds 3.5 to 5.0 in a 12 teamer.

So pretend I had the 10 slot and traded my 1st and 2nd round picks for the #1 overall pick and extra picks in the third and fifth rounds as well.

Do you like that trade?

[nobody 2,031]

I put Thielen 8th because you paid the 8th most for Thielen (tied with Cousins), but Thielen, Aiyuk, and Harris aren't in the top 60 in superflex leagues since QBs are more valued (or at least should be).

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, nobody said:

I put Thielen 8th because you paid the 8th most for Thielen (tied with Cousins), but Thielen, Aiyuk, and Harris aren't in the top 60 in superflex leagues since QBs are more valued (or at least should be).

Fair enough, though my draft board doesn't change much through the first five rounds of a Superflex or 2QB draft.  I don't believe in taking QBs early (unless it's Mahomes this year), and certainly not in a Superflex or 2QB league where the individual QBs are devalued due to being averaged in with a 2nd QB.

So I'm playing guys who are normally first five round talents against players typically taken a round or two later on the teams that went QB hunting early, and the advantage still works out the same.

And if you want to use Superflex ADPs, Matthew Stafford has an ADP in the 4th round, so there's that.

[AxeElf 787]

Number Thirteen (#59)

For my final managed league and final auction draft, we will be participating in a $250 Yahoo Public Prize League–10 teams, half-PPR scoring, single flex.

So for this one, I was Salmon Guy. Well, not quite, but I definitely pushed the envelope of the “Studs & Scrubs” auction strategy. I don’t usually like to do that, but I’ve been drafting so many deep rosters lately that I’m sitting there looking at my blank roster before the draft starts, thinking, "I only have to fill like five starting positions and a flex? (TEs, Ks and Ds are all like dollar players to me anyway–or pretty close.)

It’s a very shallow draft… 10 teams x 15 players, and 2 of them are a K and a D… so only 130 skill players drafted? There’s bound to be a lot of meat left in the Dollar Store–and on the waiver wire…

I did some quick math in my head… $35 for Mahomes, $55 for a RB1, $40 for a RB2, $30 for a WR1 and $25 for a WR2 would be $185, leaving me $15 for a Flex and the support positions… I’mma gonna give it a shot…

So I get Derrick Henry at the 11th nomination for $56, which wasn’t all that great at the time, as it was third behind CMC ($70) and Cook ($57), but only a dollar more than Zeke, Kamara and Taylor at $55. Then later when Aaron Jones became the subject of the “last elite RB” bidding war, he went for $67, and Chubb commanded $58 shortly thereafter, so I felt a lot better about getting what I consider to be the best player in the draft for what was essentially tied for the 8th-highest price. But I’m $1 over budget…

The very next nomination was CeeDee Lamb, my preferred WR2. I get him for $26. Cool… but now I’m $2 over budget…

They’re coming fast and furious now; Patrick Mahomes comes out with the 15th nomination, and I win him for $31. Awesome! Now I’m $2 UNDER budget!

Was kind of hoping for maybe Aaron Jones at RB2, but the bidding war ended any chance of that. Thought about Barkley then, but he went too far over my budget at $46. My own nomination, Antonio Gibson, also hit that mark. And then it was Mixon at nom #25. I get him for $42 (13th among RBs)–exactly back on budget!

Then a bunch of mid-range WRs came out for many of the next 15 picks, and by the time we were just passing the 40th nomination, the top two WRs–indeed, the top two players on the draft board–were DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley. I’mma gettin’ me one…

Hopkins comes out first and I’m dismayed as he climbs past 30, but I bid 32, and I’m outbid, and I figure I’m not getting any good Flex player for $5 anyway, I might as well blow my wad, and I bid $34… and win! But there goes $4 of the $15 I had budgeted to round out my roster.

So I have a starting five of Mahomes, Henry, Mixon, Hopkins and Lamb, with 10 open roster slots and $11 to fill them.

LOL

Ok, but I’m sporting a starting five that look like they were drafted in a 6-teamer.

Now to wait for the dollar store to open…

One thing happened in this draft that hadn’t happened once in like 20 auction drafts this preseason–I nominated someone I didn’t want, and no one else wanted him either. And that’s why I have Fournette. The guy who has Ronald Jones has like four other RBs ahead of him, so he probly doesn’t want Fournette, and I don’t want Jones from him. So I’m probly gonna end up dumping Fournette back into the waiver pool for Bryan Edwards or something when the waivers clear on Friday.

I was kind of hoping I might be able to get Kenny Golladay or Brandin Cooks for my last $2, but Golladay went for $3 and I wasn’t able to bid $2 on Cooks fast enough, so he went to someone else for $2… and I ended up dropping my deuce on Mike Gesicki, to help round out the starting lineup with a quality TE.

Every other slot on my roster (Flex, K, D and 6 bench slots) was filled with $1 players. So it’s a pretty extreme example of the “Studs & Scrubs” strategy–but I think I kinda like it.

All I have to do is hit on one quality waiver wire pickup during the season to strengthen my flex position–and keep my starters healthy–and I should win going away.

QB: Patrick Mahomes (12) $31
RB: Derrick Henry (13) $56, Joe Mixon (10) $42, Tevin Coleman (6) $1, Mark Ingram (10) $1, Phillip Lindsay (10) $1, Leonard Fournette (9) $1
WR: DeAndre Hopkins (12) $34, CeeDee Lamb (7) $26, Mike Williams (7) $1, Marvin Jones, Jr. (7) $1, Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) $1
TE: Mike Gesicki (14) $2
K: Matt Prater (12) $1
DST: Pittsburgh Steelers (7) $1
REMAINING: $0

1 to go…

[AxeElf 787]

9 hours ago, AxeElf said:

You are appreciated, Salmon Guy, wherever you are!

By the way… Yahoo awarded him the “Best Draft” medal.

LOL!

[nobody 2,031]

57 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Fair enough, though my draft board doesn't change much through the first five rounds of a Superflex or 2QB draft.  I don't believe in taking QBs early (unless it's Mahomes this year), and certainly not in a Superflex or 2QB league where the individual QBs are devalued due to being averaged in with a 2nd QB.

So I'm playing guys who are normally first five round talents against players typically taken a round or two later on the teams that went QB hunting early, and the advantage still works out the same.

And if you want to use Superflex ADPs, Matthew Stafford has an ADP in the 4th round, so there's that.

It does seem like the QBs went cheap for some reason.  I would argue that QB should be more valued because now you're adding positional scarcity.

I assess value by taking the projected performance minus the projected average starter at the position.   Just on the math, the higher end qbs become more valuable because the average starter now becomes worse.

Note that you can divide by the standard deviation to scale it as well which helpful when comparing between position groups.

[nobody 2,031]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Number Thirteen (#59)

For my final managed league and final auction draft, we will be participating in a $250 Yahoo Public Prize League–10 teams, half-PPR scoring, single flex.

So for this one, I was Salmon Guy. Well, not quite, but I definitely pushed the envelope of the “Studs & Scrubs” auction strategy. I don’t usually like to do that, but I’ve been drafting so many deep rosters lately that I’m sitting there looking at my blank roster before the draft starts, thinking, "I only have to fill like five starting positions and a flex? (TEs, Ks and Ds are all like dollar players to me anyway–or pretty close.)

It’s a very shallow draft… 10 teams x 15 players, and 2 of them are a K and a D… so only 130 skill players drafted? There’s bound to be a lot of meat left in the Dollar Store–and on the waiver wire…

I did some quick math in my head… $35 for Mahomes, $55 for a RB1, $40 for a RB2, $30 for a WR1 and $25 for a WR2 would be $185, leaving me $15 for a Flex and the support positions… I’mma gonna give it a shot…

So I get Derrick Henry at the 11th nomination for $56, which wasn’t all that great at the time, as it was third behind CMC ($70) and Cook ($57), but only a dollar more than Zeke, Kamara and Taylor at $55. Then later when Aaron Jones became the subject of the “last elite RB” bidding war, he went for $67, and Chubb commanded $58 shortly thereafter, so I felt a lot better about getting what I consider to be the best player in the draft for what was essentially tied for the 8th-highest price. But I’m $1 over budget…

The very next nomination was CeeDee Lamb, my preferred WR2. I get him for $26. Cool… but now I’m $2 over budget…

They’re coming fast and furious now; Patrick Mahomes comes out with the 15th nomination, and I win him for $31. Awesome! Now I’m $2 UNDER budget!

Was kind of hoping for maybe Aaron Jones at RB2, but the bidding war ended any chance of that. Thought about Barkley then, but he went too far over my budget at $46. My own nomination, Antonio Gibson, also hit that mark. And then it was Mixon at nom #25. I get him for $42 (13th among RBs)–exactly back on budget!

Then a bunch of mid-range WRs came out for many of the next 15 picks, and by the time we were just passing the 40th nomination, the top two WRs–indeed, the top two players on the draft board–were DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley. I’mma gettin’ me one…

Hopkins comes out first and I’m dismayed as he climbs past 30, but I bid 32, and I’m outbid, and I figure I’m not getting any good Flex player for $5 anyway, I might as well blow my wad, and I bid $34… and win! But there goes $4 of the $15 I had budgeted to round out my roster.

So I have a starting five of Mahomes, Henry, Mixon, Hopkins and Lamb, with 10 open roster slots and $11 to fill them.

LOL

Ok, but I’m sporting a starting five that look like they were drafted in a 6-teamer.

Now to wait for the dollar store to open…

One thing happened in this draft that hadn’t happened once in like 20 auction drafts this preseason–I nominated someone I didn’t want, and no one else wanted him either. And that’s why I have Fournette. The guy who has Ronald Jones has like four other RBs ahead of him, so he probly doesn’t want Fournette, and I don’t want Jones from him. So I’m probly gonna end up dumping Fournette back into the waiver pool for Bryan Edwards or something when the waivers clear on Friday.

I was kind of hoping I might be able to get Kenny Golladay or Brandin Cooks for my last $2, but Golladay went for $3 and I wasn’t able to bid $2 on Cooks fast enough, so he went to someone else for $2… and I ended up dropping my deuce on Mike Gesicki, to help round out the starting lineup with a quality TE.

Every other slot on my roster (Flex, K, D and 6 bench slots) was filled with $1 players. So it’s a pretty extreme example of the “Studs & Scrubs” strategy–but I think I kinda like it.

All I have to do is hit on one quality waiver wire pickup during the season to strengthen my flex position–and keep my starters healthy–and I should win going away.

QB: Patrick Mahomes (12) $31
RB: Derrick Henry (13) $56, Joe Mixon (10) $42, Tevin Coleman (6) $1, Mark Ingram (10) $1, Phillip Lindsay (10) $1, Leonard Fournette (9) $1
WR: DeAndre Hopkins (12) $34, CeeDee Lamb (7) $26, Mike Williams (7) $1, Marvin Jones, Jr. (7) $1, Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) $1
TE: Mike Gesicki (14) $2
K: Matt Prater (12) $1
DST: Pittsburgh Steelers (7) $1
REMAINING: $0

1 to go…

Mike Williams for $1 is a bargain.

 

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, nobody said:

I assess value by taking the projected performance minus the projected average starter at the position.

That math would be applicable to a single-QB league, but in a 2QB/Superflex league, you are no longer talking about the projected performance of a single player--you're talking about the projected performance of 2 QBs averaged together.  So the projected performance of Mahomes/Darnold is approximately equal to the projected performance of Cousins and Ryan. Or Ryan and Carr.  Or Fitzpatrick and Winston.  You get the picture.  It brings the extreme performers back into the bell curve, dampening the scoring power of the studs, and compensating for the weaker QBs if paired with a competent one.

You can try to get two top 5 QBs, I suppose, but in a snake draft, you probly won't be able to, and in an auction draft, you'll severely handicap yourself at several other starting positions if you do.

So people treat QBs as being MORE important, when axually, they're LESS important.  It's more important to GET two (or even three) QBs, that's true--but which ONES you get don't matter nearly as much.

Better to sit back and play Catch a Falling Stud at RB and WR for five or six rounds, and THEN worry about your QBs.

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, nobody said:

Mike Williams for $1 is a bargain.

LOL You quoted that whole novella just to say that?

Thx.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,588]

12 hours ago, AxeElf said:

LOL You quoted that whole novella just to say that?

Thx.

You don’t seem to be too high on Kyle Pitts. I’d think a tuned in guy like you would be. 

[AxeElf 787]

17 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You don’t seem to be too high on Kyle Pitts. I’d think a tuned in guy like you would be. 

That's probly because you overestimate the value of a rookie TE.

[nobody 2,031]

12 hours ago, AxeElf said:

That math would be applicable to a single-QB league, but in a 2QB/Superflex league, you are no longer talking about the projected performance of a single player--you're talking about the projected performance of 2 QBs averaged together.  So the projected performance of Mahomes/Darnold is approximately equal to the projected performance of Cousins and Ryan. Or Ryan and Carr.  Or Fitzpatrick and Winston.  You get the picture.  It brings the extreme performers back into the bell curve, dampening the scoring power of the studs, and compensating for the weaker QBs if paired with a competent one.

You can try to get two top 5 QBs, I suppose, but in a snake draft, you probly won't be able to, and in an auction draft, you'll severely handicap yourself at several other starting positions if you do.

So people treat QBs as being MORE important, when axually, they're LESS important.  It's more important to GET two (or even three) QBs, that's true--but which ONES you get don't matter nearly as much.

Better to sit back and play Catch a Falling Stud at RB and WR for five or six rounds, and THEN worry about your QBs.

I think when you consider that superflex, you need to lump all of the positions together and get relative value over average after removing say the top 20 RBs and WRs and the top maybe 6-8 QBs since those guys are going to fill the traditional starter spots before you are probably going to have a chance to worry about the superflex.   That would make the QBs quite valuable.

But then you also have to factor in the other owners.  If they aren't adjusting the value of the QBs, then you only have to value QBs slightly more.  If they go the other way and overvalue QBs, you don't want to get stuck with QB 15 and QB 22.

The problem with treating it like any other league or devaluing QB is the guy who gets Mahomes in the 1st and Stafford in the 7th is going to have huge advantages in those positions and still have guys like Mixon, Lamb, Carson, and Woods filling out his roster.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,588]

35 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

That's probly because you overestimate the value of a rookie TE.

I usually do, until confronted with an outlier. Sharps recognize a unique opportunity when presented. 

[AxeElf 787]

4 minutes ago, nobody said:

you don't want to get stuck with QB 15 and QB 22.

That's EXACTLY what I want. This year that equates to Matt Ryan (a QB who has finished lower than QB12 only once since 2015--when he was QB15 in 2017) and Derek Carr (the QB13 last year, with an up-and-coming group of young, highly-drafted receivers.

According to their per-game averages in 2020, I should get almost 36 pts per week from my two QBs.

14 minutes ago, nobody said:

the guy who gets Mahomes in the 1st and Stafford in the 7th is going to have huge advantages

As mentioned before, Stafford has a 4th round ADP in 2QB leagues; nobody's getting him in the 7th.  QBs with a 7th round ADP in 2QB leagues are more like Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield.

So the guy with Mahomes and Mayfield will score just over 41 points per week at the QB positions, based on last year's averages, while I, stuck with the QB15 and QB22 in Rounds 6 and 10, will score about 5 fewer points per week at the position.  I'll make that up by having Derrick Henry as my RB1, to your Joe Mixon, and DeAndre Hopkins as my WR1, to your Lamb.

Parenthetically, there's no way you're getting Lamb, Carson and Woods on the same team in a snake draft; they all have ADPs between 30 and 37.  I guess you could reach for Lamb in the 2nd--but then you wouldn't have Mixon.

[AxeElf 787]

16 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I usually do, until confronted with an outlier. Sharps recognize a unique opportunity when presented. 

More importantly, "sharps" recognize a mirage when they see one.

Missing out on a good player isn't a fantasy crisis.  Investing heavily in a bust is.

Rookie TEs have historically been mirages.  With over $3000 invested in fantasy football this season, the stakes are too high for me to endorse a false positive; I'd much rather risk a false negative.  The odds are on my side, and even if I lose, I don't really lose anything.  If I bet on Pitts being the one-in-a-million "outlier" and win, I get essentially the same thing I would have gotten from Higbee or Gesicki, who I can get several rounds later, anyway.  But if I lose that bet, my season is in jeopardy.

[AxeElf 787]

NUMBER FOURTEEN! (#60!)

So I plop down my last $20 of the 2021 preseason on the final Yahoo Best Ball league of the year--and wonder of wonders--I draw pick #2!  Three straight top 3 picks!

So I figure I'm going to add another Derrick Henry team to my portfolio.  But then the #1 pick takes Dalvin Cook, and a funny feeling comes over me and I decide to do something different for this, the last draft of 2020, and I take my first share of Christian McCaffrey.  So either I'm screwed in this one--or in the other 59.

1.2 Christian McCaffrey

2.9 DeAndre Hopkins - Had the choice of Joe Mixon here, but with an early draft position, I'm set up for Gus Edwards and the Mostert/Sermon coup at the 6/7 turn, so with Hopkins still on the board at the end of the 2nd, I go WR instead, figuring I'll pair him with CeeDee Lamb around the corner and still be fine on RBs later.

3.2 Joe Mixon - And then the bastid takes Lamb on the 2/3 turn!  Curses!  But looky here, he din't take Mixon.  So I guess I'll be going for global domination with RBs after all. To me this doesn't look a whole lot different than my common Henry/Mixon/Lamb starts, though I suppose the "consensus" says this is better.

4.9 Gus Edwards - Having good RBs already, I was hoping Robert Woods might fall here--but he falls at 4.07.  So back to back RBs it is...

5.2 Damien Harris - Global domination achieved.

6.9 Brandon Aiyuk - With both Aiyuk and Thielen having late fifth-round ADPs, I was just hoping and praying that one of them fell... and I feel extremely lucky that one did.  Aiyuk bails out my heretofore neglected WR corps.

7.2 Robby Anderson - And another top 20 WR around the corner makes it all worthwhile.

8.9 Matthew Stafford - I was going to go with Golladay here and Stafford around the corner in the 9th, but I checked out the turn guy's roster, and he had like 4 WRs and no QB, so I took Stafford first and gambled on Golladay making it through the turn.  Sure enough--he takes like 25 seconds of the 30 second clock and picks Tannehill--gotcha back for CeeDee Lamb, din't I?  lol  His other pick is Tyler Boyd, though, so... whew.

9.2 Kenny Golladay - Golladay in the 9th.  The draft value of the year.

10.9 Mike Gesicki - I'm looking at Cousins and Gesicki here, but again I check the rosters, and turn guy has Tannehill at QB but no TE yet, so I pick Gesicki first.  Sure enough--he takes like 20 seconds and settles on Gerald Everett.  Tired of Axe Elf yet, sucka?  And his other pick is another WR...

11.2 Kirk Cousins

12.9 Matt Ryan - At this turn, I'm looking at Ryan and Mike Williams.  Turn guy has like 6 WRs now, so I take Ryan first and expect Williams to make it through the turn--but turn guy snipes me back!  So I guess we're even, 2-2.  Turn guy ends up with 8 total WRs in a 17-player draft.  Weird.

13.2 Evan Engram - With no other high-value targets left, I just go to the TE I was going to draft in the 14th--and then just filled out the rest of the roster.

14.9 Anthony Firkser

15.2 Amon-Ra St. Brown

16.9 Mark Ingram II

17.2 Bryan Edwards - Started to warm up to this guy late in the preseason; seems to be the guy expected to lead the Raiders in targets.

And with 24 hours to go until the season starts--I am done drafting!

[AxeElf 787]

So I drafted 1,090 players in 60 drafts this summer (an average of 18.17 players per roster), and one out of every five of them (224) is a WR named Golladay, Lamb, Aiyuk, Woods, Amon-Ra, or Cooks.

Overall, I drafted 121 different players, but only 37 unique players--those who appear on at least 10 of my teams--account for 80% (857) of all players drafted.  So basically two complete 18-player rosters could account for every single player on 48 of the 60 teams I drafted.  The best investment strategy is a highly UNdiversified portfolio--when you are right (and I'm Axe Elf, so...).

The distribution is so top-heavy that just the top 12 unique players--those who appear on at least half of my teams--account for 40% (436) of all players drafted.

The 37 players who account for 80% of all players drafted include 5 QBs, 13 RBs, 11 WRs, 5 TEs, 2 Ks, and 1 DST.  I think the reason there is a disproportionately large number of RBs is because in snake drafts, your 1st, and to a lesser degree your 2nd and 3rd round picks, are largely dependent on your draft position--and you're most likely taking a couple of RBs in those first three or four rounds.  After the fourth round, your draft position doesn't matter as much, because it's more acceptable to reach half a round or more for your targets by that time.  But being forced into sampling most of the 1st and 2nd round RBs at some point naturally makes that position more diverse than the others.

Here's the list... * for guys who got hurt or cut since being drafted.  (Half of them are the 20 Latavius Murray shares, so only 20 others out of 1,070 isn't bad.)

Kenny Golladay	47
CeeDee Lamb	42
Daniel Jones	41
Brandon Aiyuk	38
Evan Engram	37
Kirk Cousins	36
Robert Woods	36
C.J. Uzomah	34
Amon-Ra St. Brown	33
Chris Carson	31
Mike Davis	31
Anthony Firkser	30
Brandin Cooks	28
Patrick Mahomes	22
Matthew Stafford	22
Mike Williams	22
Tyler Higbee	22
Damien Harris	21
Matt Ryan	20
Najee Harris	20
Raheem Mostert	20
Latavius Murray	*20
Joe Mixon	17
Adam Thielen	17
Tre'Quan Smith	17
Robby Anderson	16
Derrick Henry	14
Trey Sermon	14
Marvin Jones, Jr.	14
Arizona Cardinals K	14
Aaron Jones	13
James Conner	13
Mark Ingram II	12
Nyheim Hines	12
Jared Cook	11
Minnesota Vikings K	10
Minnesota Vikings D/ST	10
Ryan Fitzpatrick	9
Ezekiel Elliott	9
Mike Gesicki	9
Tarik Cohen	*8
Will Fuller	8
Robert Tonyan	8
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	8
Saquon Barkley	6
Tyreek Hill	6
Davante Adams	6
T.Y. Hilton	*6
Dalton Schultz	6
Atlanta Falcons K	6
Washington Football Team D/ST	6
New England Patriots D/ST	6
Darrell Henderson, Jr.	5
DeAndre Hopkins	5
Henry Ruggs III	5
Jonathan Taylor	4
Gus Edwards	4
Phillip Lindsay	4
Tyler Boyd	4
Jameis Winston	3
James White	3
Samaje Perine	3
Stefon Diggs	3
Terry McLaurin	3
Bryan Edwards	3
San Francisco 49ers K	3
Los Angeles Rams D/ST	3
Chicago Bears D/ST	3
Dak Prescott	2
Aaron Rodgers	2
Cam Newton	*2
Travis Etienne	*2
Melvin Gordon	2
Marlon Mack	2
Rashaad Penny	2
Tony Jones, Jr.	2
Justin Jefferson	2
Mike Evans	2
Gabriel Davis	2
Adam Trautman	*2
Hayden Hurst	2
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST	2
Denver Broncos D/ST	2
Justin Herbert	1
Tom Brady	1
Ben Roethlisberger	1
Joe Burrow	1
Jared Goff	1
Derek Carr	1
Tyrod Taylor	1
Christian McCaffrey	1
Kareem Hunt	1
Zack Moss	1
Devin Singletary	1
Leonard Fournette	1
James Robinson	1
Tevin Coleman	1
J.D. McKissic	1
Larry Rountree III	1
Cordarrelle Patterson	1
Calvin Ridley	1
D.K. Metcalf	1
A.J. Brown	1
Diontae Johnson	1
D.J. Moore	1
DeVante Parker	1
Jakobi Meyers	1
Cole Beasley	1
A.J. Green	1
Logan Thomas	1
Chris Herndon, Jr.	1
Zach Ertz	1
O.J. Howard	1
Dallas Cowboys K	1
Pittsburgh Steelers K	1
Green Bay Packers K	1
New York Giants K	1
Cleveland Browns K	1
Denver Broncos K	1
Arizona Cardinals D/ST	1
Tennessee Titans D/ST	1

 

[AxeElf 787]

Well, just found out I can enter Yahoo’s League of Champions DFS contest, so I guess I’ll have 61 leagues this year. DFS, though, so it’s a different team every week, instead of the same team throughout the year.

Infallible as he may be in season-long fantasy strategy, Axe Elf has not mastered large DFS tournament league strategies, so this is more of an S&G thing for me–I haven’t divided all the EVs by my points per dollar and cross-referenced them against roster frequency charts or anything. I just put together the best team I could for $200.

QB Patrick Mahomes $40
RB Raheem Mostert $26
RB Najee Harris $20
WR Tyreek Hill $34
WR Adam Thielen $24
WR Brandin Cooks $18
TE Mike Gesicki $12
Flex Robby Anderson $14
DEF New England Patriots $12

[AxeElf 787]

On 9/11/2021 at 5:27 PM, AxeElf said:

QB Patrick Mahomes $40
RB Raheem Mostert $26
RB Najee Harris $20
WR Tyreek Hill $34
WR Adam Thielen $24
WR Brandin Cooks $18
TE Mike Gesicki $12
Flex Robby Anderson $14
DEF New England Patriots $12

I remembered having Mostert and Harris at RB and Gesicki’s zero at TE, so I never really bothered to check on the Yahoo DFS League of Champions…

…and yet I’m in the top 8%–lol–top 20k out of a quarter million entries! Mahomes, Hill, Cooks and Thielen did work!

So I guess I’ll set a lineup for Week 2… especially since I’m already getting requests from my fans to post another draft result. Since I’m not doing any more drafts, per se, this will have to do…

No Mahomes available for Week 2 (guess they don’t include the night games?), so I’ll play the QB cheap this week instead…

QB: Derek Carr $21
RB: Najee Harris $25
RB Joe Mixon $24
WR: CeeDee Lamb $23
WR: Robert Woods $23
WR: Brandin Cooks $23
TE: Darren Waller $22
Flex: Corey Davis $20
DEF: New England Patriots $19

Pretty balanced overall.

[nobody 2,031]

Derek Carr against the Steelers on a short week?  Bold strategy.  

Stacking Waller and Carr I presume.

[AxeElf 787]

3 minutes ago, nobody said:

Derek Carr against the Steelers on a short week?  Bold strategy.  

Stacking Waller and Carr I presume.

Incidentally, but Carr was also the best prospect at the minimum cost (well, almost minimum; they go down to $20 for the Andy Daltons and Carson Wentzes of the world).

I can't see them riding Peyton Barber to a win against Pittsburgh, so I'm counting on volume.  And if Week 1 is any indication, Carr will throw twice to Waller for every other player he targets.

Anyway, this isn't real important to me.  It's just a free contest, and I'd have to place in the top 1000 to get paid (and with a $4000 prize pool, that's probly like $1 until you're in the top 100)--so I'm not spending a lot of scrutiny on it--just cobbling together players I like.

[jeffkomlo 19]

43 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

Anyway, this isn't real important to me.  It's just a free contest,.....

Then why post it, .....oh just to see your words in print

AxeElf = failed novelist/journalist/blogger?

[AxeElf 787]

30 minutes ago, jeffkomlo said:

AxeElf = failed novelist/journalist/blogger?

Axually, I was a published author at the age of 12.

(Insider info for Æ™, I.O.U.! Club members only!)

[AxeElf 787]

On 9/18/2021 at 3:31 PM, AxeElf said:

QB: Derek Carr $21
RB: Najee Harris $25
RB Joe Mixon $24
WR: CeeDee Lamb $23
WR: Robert Woods $23
WR: Brandin Cooks $23
TE: Darren Waller $22
Flex: Corey Davis $20
DEF: New England Patriots $19

Scored fewer points than I did in Week 1, but moved up to 9,069th out of 248,148--top 4%!