2021 Projections & Rankings: Launched

[Mike FF Today 607]

Here we go!

I think I've got Chase Edmonds too high. 

This is our jumping off point. We'll do another couple updates in June as news demands then weekly updates once July hits. Roughly 190 player notes on offense and another 75 on the IDP side.

[weepaws 2,456]

M Davis is way to low. 

[AxeElf 787]

Look where Zeke is.

LOL

[AxeElf 787]

CeeDee Lamb #31?

What do you have against the Cowboys???

[AxeElf 787]

The Bengals starting TE, you know, the guy who caught Joe Burrow's first TD pass in the NFL, isn't listed among the top 50 TEs.

I just can't...

[polecatt 401]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

CeeDee Lamb #31?

What do you have against the Cowboys???

They have Dak throwing for nearly 4600 yards and 32 TDs, yet only Amari Cooper over 1000 yards, neither CeeDee, or Gallup having even 900. 16 TDs between the three.

I guess Blake Jarwin is gonna put up Travis Kelce numbers at TE

 

[weepaws 2,456]

Etienne is going to have more than 450 rushing yards.  

[weepaws 2,456]

I agree with the slotting of T Higbee , I think with Stafford he could have that type of season. 

Another is Firkser with the Titans, he won’t be as productive as Higbee , but I like him as a stream this season.  

[weepaws 2,456]

Firkser might benefit from the Jones pick up.  

Middle of then field and red zone mmm , still a worthy stream candidate 

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

On 6/4/2021 at 10:41 PM, polecatt said:

They have Dak throwing for nearly 4600 yards and 32 TDs, yet only Amari Cooper over 1000 yards, neither CeeDee, or Gallup having even 900. 16 TDs between the three.

I guess Blake Jarwin is gonna put up Travis Kelce numbers at TE

 

The 4 WR's, 2 TE's, and 3 RB's that are projected, combine for 4541 and 29.  It's reasonable for some random players to account for 60 yards and 3 TD's.

[polecatt 401]

21 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

The 4 WR's, 2 TE's, and 3 RB's that are projected, combine for 4541 and 29.  It's reasonable for some random players to account for 60 yards and 3 TD's.

I guess, I just don't know what logic says that Ceedee Lamb is gonna have a drop in production with Dak playing 16 games, when he was the 7th scoring WR last season when Dak was playing. Then he dropped off sginificantly when Dak was out. I think it's about 50/50 he's better than Amari Cooper this season.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

1 minute ago, polecatt said:

I guess, I just don't know what logic says that Ceedee Lamb is gonna have a drop in production with Dak playing 16 games, when he was the 7th scoring WR last season when Dak was playing. Then he dropped off sginificantly when Dak was out. I think it's about 50/50 he's better than Amari Cooper this season.

Cooper / Lamb, that argument I would understand.  Honestly, I can see the Cowboys calling more plays focusing in on Cooper to try and drive up his production.  He turns 27 in 2 weeks, so it's not like he's old.  With Dak's new deal, I think Dallas will want to trade Cooper even though they just signed him to a long term deal.  There's no cap hit after this season.  I can see them trying to get him 170+ targets this year and double digit TD's.

[jrokh 568]

18 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

With Dak's new deal, I think Dallas will want to trade Cooper even though they just signed him to a long term deal.  There's no cap hit after this season.  I can see them trying to get him 170+ targets this year and double digit TD's.

Nothing would really surprise me with Jerry, but I can't see him instructing McCarthy and Moore to design more plays for Cooper simply to boost his offseason trade value. NFL teams don't really work that way. If Lamb is better than Cooper he will get more targets. The 'Girls want to win more than they want a higher draft pick if they move on from Cooper...

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

7 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Nothing would really surprise me with Jerry, but I can't see him instructing McCarthy and Moore to design more plays for Cooper simply to boost his offseason trade value. NFL teams don't really work that way. If Lamb is better than Cooper he will get more targets. The 'Girls want to win more than they want a higher draft pick if they move on from Cooper...

Yeah, if we were talking about the other 31 teams, I'd agree... but yeah... Jerry.  

[Donkey 34]

Stafford too low especially since you have Kupp, Woods and Higbee all ranked high.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

46 minutes ago, Donkey said:

Stafford too low especially since you have Kupp, Woods and Higbee all ranked high.

I think all of the projections for the QB's are too low, but since it's global, it's not very relevant.

[AxeElf 787]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think all of the projections for the QB's are too low, but since it's global, it's not very relevant.

I thought just the opposite, when like 4 QBs in the past 10 years have exceeded 400 fantasy points, and we're projected to have 6 this year alone (and a 7th at 398)!

But like you said, it's a global issue, as the 20th-projected QB for this year (Daniel Jones with 322 fantasy points) would have placed 11th among QBs in 2020, 6th among QBs in 2018 and 2019, 2nd among QBs in 2017, and 4th among QBs in 2016.

I mean I guess an extra game, but it seems like a lot.  One more game's stats won't take a 300 pt QB to a 400 pt QB.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I thought just the opposite, when like 4 QBs in the past 10 years have exceeded 400 fantasy points, and we're projected to have 6 this year alone (and a 7th at 398)!

But like you said, it's a global issue, as the 20th-projected QB for this year (Daniel Jones with 322 fantasy points) would have placed 11th among QBs in 2020, 6th among QBs in 2018 and 2019, 2nd among QBs in 2017, and 4th among QBs in 2016.

I mean I guess an extra game, but it seems like a lot.  One more game's stats won't take a 300 pt QB to a 400 pt QB.

It could have been perception.  I saw Brady projected to have 596 attempts... I think he's about 50 to 60 short on that.  The last 2 years, Tampa had about 630 attempts in each season... I don't see this year being any different in terms of attempts per game (about 39).  For a 17-game season, that's 660 attempts.  I just expected to see a lot of QB's nearing 600 and saw only Brady with Burrow being the only one over 600.  I also expected a lot more QB's over 4200 yards.  Last year there was 9... he has 10 projected for this year.  I'd have thought about 15 as 14 threw for about 3950.

Mahomes and Brady just stuck out to me as odd/low.  Mahomes played 15 games last year and the projections for this year are almost the same as last year.  Is he expecting Mahomes to miss 2 games?  Maybe.  He has Brady throwing the ball less times for less yards and less TD's than last year.  Unless he's projecting a couple of blowouts and possibly sitting Week 17, I think that his numbers are rather low.

Last year, in my keeper league (which doesn't have any oddball scoring), Josh Allen had over 400 points and 5 other's were at least 375.  Assuming about 25 f/g, I'd expect around 6 guys to be over or near 400.  He doesn't have any within 15 points.  All that being said, the grouping among tiers seems to be reasonable, so in the end, the actual numbers aren't all that important.

[AxeElf 787]

23 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

All that being said, the grouping among tiers seems to be reasonable, so in the end, the actual numbers aren't all that important.

Agreed, and with QBs, every year it's pretty much like there is a top 5 and then QB6-QB17 are functionally equivalent for fantasy purposes anyway--so "ranking" them is a fool's errand.

This year, though, I think Mahomes is going to have a season to remember.  So for me, it's Mahomes #1 by a wide margin, and after that, I'll take what I can get cheaply.

[weepaws 2,456]

Mahomes like the last two season won’t be the number one Qb. 

[Donkey 34]

23 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think all of the projections for the QB's are too low, but since it's global, it's not very relevant.

was referring to ranking

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

1 hour ago, Donkey said:

was referring to ranking

Stafford is a statue.  Over the last 4 years, he's averaged 85 rushing yards per season and a total of 0 TD's.  Virtually everything he gets is through the air, so guys who run will be ranked higher simply because rushing numbers are more valuable than passing numbers.

[Maulers1973 117]

QB Hurts at number 11??????    Wow!!!!

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Maulers1973 said:

QB Hurts at number 11??????    Wow!!!!

That's because when you draft him before the likes of Ryan, Stafford and Jones, it hurts.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

2 hours ago, Maulers1973 said:

QB Hurts at number 11??????    Wow!!!!

That's pretty reasonable if you think he's going to rush for 700+ yards and 6 TD's.

[Donkey 34]

7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Stafford is a statue.  Over the last 4 years, he's averaged 85 rushing yards per season and a total of 0 TD's.  Virtually everything he gets is through the air, so guys who run will be ranked higher simply because rushing numbers are more valuable than passing numbers.

fair point, my main league scoring devalues QB rushing.