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Matts Eagles

Buy/Sell

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26 minutes ago, weepaws said:

But last season made up for those prior three seasons.  

Who’s to say that last season won’t be more of the norm going forward, and his age could have a lot to do with that.  

 

Ok, so he missed 8 games over 4 seasons.  I'll be fine if Julio plays 14 or 15 games.

I don't see it as a sign.  Last year, Julio was on pace for a 91/1370 season (which is what he got the year before).  He's not slowing down.  I think think he probably could've come back but chose not to.  He saw the train wreck that the Falcons are and said "Thanks, I'm good".  Why do I say that?  Because right after the season was over, Arthur Blank said that the new GM can trade anyone he wanted... and specifically named Ryan and Jones.  Jones had a contract that could have easily been restructured but they chose not to do that... but did with Matt Ryan.  We even heard it from Jones himself that he wanted out.

In the last game Jones played, he didn't get hurt early.  He was in until the very end.  He was protecting his investment... himself.  That's why he didn't play those last 4 games.  He had a "nagging hamstring".  Yeah, ok.  That's what Evans and Godwin had at the end of the 2019 season.  They could've played, but chose not to because the season was over.  They were perfectly fine last year.

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17 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

so who is everyone else buying or selling?

 Buy- Baker Mayfield. This could be the year he puts it all together, has a top OL and good weapons. His price is pretty low right now.

Buy- as said previously McClaurin- poised for a career year

Buy- TJ Hockensen- who else is Goff going to throw to?

Buy- James Robinson. His ADP on CBS right now is 84, 36 on ffc in half ppr. split the difference and you get 60, his value is low because of Etienne, but I like him at that price.

I'll do some sells later on.

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Buy- James Robinson. His ADP on CBS right now is 84, 36 on ffc in half ppr. split the difference and you get 60, his value is low because of Etienne, but I like him at that price.

The 60 estimate is probly pretty close; he's at 56.28 on RTSports.  Here are the RBs going within 10 slots of him, including, ironically enough...

...Travis Etienne 48.13

Miles Gaskin 48.42

Kareem Hunt 50.56

Mike Davis 53.17

James Robinson 56.28

Melvin Gordon 58.46

Javonte Williams 59.59

Chase Edmonds 62.01

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

So his age 31 season was the only one that matters to you?  You're completely ignoring the fact that he missed only 1 game in the prior 3 seasons?

That’s because he plays thru nagging injuries. I love Julio but he was literally listed as questionable just about every single week for the last 2 years. 

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

 Buy- Baker Mayfield. This could be the year he puts it all together, has a top OL and good weapons. His price is pretty low right now.

Buy- as said previously McClaurin- poised for a career year

Buy- TJ Hockensen- who else is Goff going to throw to?

Buy- James Robinson. His ADP on CBS right now is 84, 36 on ffc in half ppr. split the difference and you get 60, his value is low because of Etienne, but I like him at that price.

I'll do some sells later on.

I have been buying J Robinson for early 3rds/late 2nds just in case...

 

 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Ok, so he missed 8 games over 4 seasons.  I'll be fine if Julio plays 14 or 15 games.

I don't see it as a sign.  Last year, Julio was on pace for a 91/1370 season (which is what he got the year before).  He's not slowing down.  I think think he probably could've come back but chose not to.  He saw the train wreck that the Falcons are and said "Thanks, I'm good".  Why do I say that?  Because right after the season was over, Arthur Blank said that the new GM can trade anyone he wanted... and specifically named Ryan and Jones.  Jones had a contract that could have easily been restructured but they chose not to do that... but did with Matt Ryan.  We even heard it from Jones himself that he wanted out.

In the last game Jones played, he didn't get hurt early.  He was in until the very end.  He was protecting his investment... himself.  That's why he didn't play those last 4 games.  He had a "nagging hamstring".  Yeah, ok.  That's what Evans and Godwin had at the end of the 2019 season.  They could've played, but chose not to because the season was over.  They were perfectly fine last year.

No he missed seven games last season, not just 8 over 4 seasons.  

And he’s had hammy problems for a long while now, and has one gets older one has a harder time dealing with injuries. 

And last season he was having good season, he was 10 in avg points per game non ppr, but that was last season, and he also played with a Qb that avg 40 pass att per game, now he’s on a run first team, and another very good wr, who I think is even better than Ridley , to compete with for targets.  

I see him have a C Davis type season. 

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

His ADP is QB13, 8th round.  In leagues where you start 1 QB (probably 75-80%), no one is "targeting" him.  Like AxeElf mentioned, there's not much of a gap between 6-17, so there's not going to be any "hype".  After guys like Mahomes, Wilson, etc, I'll put Tannehill in the top of that next tier because I think he'll be more reliable and consistent... but I'm not going to a couple rounds to take him.  Simply, his value isn't as high as you think it is and the buying price is smaller than what you think it is.  If I'm in a dynasty league and I "need" a QB... I'd offer a 3rd round pick for him.  That's if I really need a QB.  If a player is the asking price, I might give you a RB who's in a committee like Ronald Jones.

Julio is absolutely an upgrade over Davis.  Heck, Josh Reynolds was almost a complete replacement.  Tannehill is a good QB who's gotten a bad rap from spending too much time in a bad situation (Miami).  For a QB, being 33 isn't a "thing" like it used to be.  Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Cousins, & Wilson will all be 33 or over this year... of which, you have 3 of who you think will be better this year than Tannehill, so apparently even you don't think being 33 is necessarily an issue.

Why wouldn't I think Julio plays a full season?  Because he didn't last year?  Prior to last year, Jones has missed a total of 4 games in the prior 6 years.  Maybe he plays 14 or 15.  Ok.  Well, it's not like Corey Davis was a beacon of durability.  In 2019 and 2020, Davis' snap count was 713 & 719 (respectively).  Prior to only playing 9 games last year, in the previous 2 seasons, Jones' snap counts were 818 & 812... that's with Jones being 29 & 30 years old.  Heck, last year even in the 9 games he played, his snap count was 468... which projected to 832.  At the very least, I'd expect Jones to get as much time as Davis did.  Since Jones is better than Davis, the production should be higher.  I honestly don't think it's a coincidence that Davis had his best year (last year), in a contract year.

Tannehill's value hasn't been higher, because it shouldn't have been, but as I mentioned before, that's only because of the situation he was in while with the Dolphins.  I expect the Titans to throw more because they know Tannehill is a better QB than what people believed.  All of that said, QB's have very little trade value unless you are in a 2QB league.  Even still, in a 2QB league... as mentioned above, that after the top 5 or 6 guys, then next 10-15 are about the same, so go get any two of them.  So whatever the "hype" or hoopla is around Tannehill, I don't know what you'd think you'd get for him.  What do you think you'd get for him?  I'm pretty high on Tannehill, but as I said above, I'd only give a 3rd round rookie pick or a guy like Ronald Jones.

You mention 1 QB leagues as if they’re the norm. Honest question do you play in any 2 QB or Superflex leagues? Even in yearly redraft any league that starts 2 QBs will see a lot of QBs get picked as early as 1st round, even 1st overall in leagues that award 6 points per passing TD. 
 

TBay, no offense, but I thought it goes without saying I’m ONLY talking about 2 QB and Superflex leagues. It surprises me that people still play leagues with 1 QB. Obviously Tannehill has little to no value in that format.

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

 Buy- Baker Mayfield. This could be the year he puts it all together, has a top OL and good weapons. His price is pretty low right now.

Buy- as said previously McClaurin- poised for a career year

Buy- TJ Hockensen- who else is Goff going to throw to?

Buy- James Robinson. His ADP on CBS right now is 84, 36 on ffc in half ppr. split the difference and you get 60, his value is low because of Etienne, but I like him at that price.

I'll do some sells later on.

I agree about Mayfield , and Robinson, I need Robinson’s ADP to drop even more, his ADP non ppr 21. 

 

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Hmmmmmmm, I'm just wading back in after a year off.   Barely feel like I missed much really.  

 

Buy -  QB Russel Wilson    RB - Nick Chubb     WR -  Calvin Ridley     TE - Kelce

 

Sell  -   QB Baker Mayfield      RB - Alvin Kamara      WR - Mike Evans       TE -  Tyler Higbee

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You mention 1 QB leagues as if they’re the norm.

That's because they're the norm.

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3 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

That’s because he plays thru nagging injuries. I love Julio but he was literally listed as questionable just about every single week for the last 2 years. 

Meh, I don't put much stock in that  When the NFL got rid of the "Probable" injury status for the 2016 season, more and more players pop up on the injury list each week.  I never let that sway me.  Only when I see "Doubtful" regularly is when I get nervous.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

That's because they're the norm.

I would definitely disagree, I think Superflex has passed 1QB leagues as the new norm.

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3 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You mention 1 QB leagues as if they’re the norm. Honest question do you play in any 2 QB or Superflex leagues? Even in yearly redraft any league that starts 2 QBs will see a lot of QBs get picked as early as 1st round, even 1st overall in leagues that award 6 points per passing TD. 
 

TBay, no offense, but I thought it goes without saying I’m ONLY talking about 2 QB and Superflex leagues. It surprises me that people still play leagues with 1 QB. Obviously Tannehill has little to no value in that format.

Most leagues I know of are 1QB leagues.  My keeper league is one of the only 2QB leagues I know of.  I can't get my office league to do that and we only have an 8-team league some years.

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12 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

I would definitely disagree, I think Superflex has passed 1QB leagues as the new norm.

I haven't checked, but when I listen to the Fantasy Sports channel every show defaults to 1 QB leagues.  They always say something like "but if you play in a 2QB or super-flex league...", as an oh by the way comment, as if it's not the norm.

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39 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I haven't checked, but when I listen to the Fantasy Sports channel every show defaults to 1 QB leagues.  They always say something like "but if you play in a 2QB or super-flex league...", as an oh by the way comment, as if it's not the norm.

Now go look at people starting new leagues, 9 out of 10 that are starting at SuperFlex. The media tends to be slow with the trends of fantasy.

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20 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

No go look at people starting new leagues, 9 out of 10 that are starting at SuperFlex. The media tends to be slow with the trends of fantasy.

I'm not sure how reliable that is, and your other post kind of backs up my point of...

19 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

I am in 32 leagues 20 are SuperFlex, I started  7 new SF this year, filling leagues in hours.

Being in this many leagues is simply ONE person having a preference, not necessarily the most popular.  How many unique owners are there in 20 with Super flex and the 12 that are not?  Of the other 12, are they all 1QB or are some 2QB?  How many unique owners are there in those 12?  You might not even know.  You could literally be in 15 of those 32 leagues with the same 11 owners, right?

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By going to message board on what leagues are starting up shows the demand and popularity of SuperFlex leagues.

Some of my SF leagues are 14 teamer, I would say out of the 240 owners.  Out of the leagues there are only 3 teams in all the leagues, some other owners are in 2-3 leagues

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59 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

I would definitely disagree, I think Superflex has passed 1QB leagues as the new norm.

You are suffering from extremely egocentric tunnel vision.

I don't know what sites you use, but if we surveyed NFL, CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, RTSports and MFL on Opening Day--throw in any other fantasy football sites you like--I will bet you right now $200 to your $20 that there are at least ten times more 1 QB leagues than there are 2 QB/Superflex leagues.

Just because I hate to see you throw $20 away, I will tell you that that on Fantasy Football Calculator, there have been 12,121 1 QB mock drafts conducted in the last month--and that's only for PPR scoring (not counting any 1 QB mock drafts in Half-PPR or Standard scoring).  By comparison, there have been 363 2 QB mock drafts conducted--since March 14.

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5 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

By going to message board on what leagues are starting up shows the demand and popularity of SuperFlex leagues.

Seems like leagues or players who have to advertise their openings/interest on message boards would be the ones who are having trouble filling, or having trouble finding a league to play in.

1 QB leagues and players fill by the minute, so there's no need to go searching.

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I come to these threads for opinions and insights but tbh I’m disappointed if most of you still play in 1 QB leagues at this point. All of my leagues that I’ve been a part of for over 20 years have evolved into some form of either 2QB or Superflex. As with all sports we evolve. Unless it’s a 14-team sized league or more, in a 1 QB league every team will have a solid starting QB. There’s no parity. It’s stupid IMO. I’d never go back to that format.

 

To each his own but my gosh you guys sound like fossils.

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31 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You are suffering from extremely egocentric tunnel vision.

I don't know what sites you use, but if we surveyed NFL, CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, RTSports and MFL on Opening Day--throw in any other fantasy football sites you like--I will bet you right now $200 to your $20 that there are at least ten times more 1 QB leagues than there are 2 QB/Superflex leagues.

Just because I hate to see you throw $20 away, I will tell you that that on Fantasy Football Calculator, there have been 12,121 1 QB mock drafts conducted in the last month--and that's only for PPR scoring (not counting any 1 QB mock drafts in Half-PPR or Standard scoring).  By comparison, there have been 363 2 QB mock drafts conducted--since March 14.

Those 2 QB drafts are not the same league as a SF.

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23 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

Those 2 QB drafts are not the same league as a SF.

Fine, if you don't care about the $20, I'll take it.

PayPal is axeelfe@gmail.com, if you don't want to wait.

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14 team non ppr league, two Qb leagues just wouldn’t work. 

But I have been in some in two Qb or superflex leagues and I really enjoyed them. 

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10 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Fine, if you don't care about the $20, I'll take it.

PayPal is axeelfe@gmail.com, if you don't want to wait.

2 QBs means 2 QB are required to start

SF is when you can flex a QB.

I will agree to disagree, mock drafts are a lot different that actual leagues.. and there is not a concrete way to figure that one out.

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27 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

2 QBs means 2 QB are required to start

Oh, I didn't know that.

27 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

SF is when you can flex a QB.

I always wondered what that meant.

27 minutes ago, Matts Eagles said:

there is not a concrete way to figure that one out.

There is.  I proposed it above.  The only question remaining is whether you're going to admit you were wrong BEFORE you pay me $20, or after you pay me $20.

But let's not lose sight of the fact that you ARE wrong.  Like orders of magnitude wrong.  Like weepaws wrong.  Any attempt to suggest otherwise without the concurrent acceptance of my proposal will be met with derision.

And try to get out more.

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I think a decent buy low candidate right now is Michael Thomas. If/when they announce Winston as the starter I think that could elevate MT overall stats. We know Winston will air it out more than Brees was in his last few seasons. 

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51 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I think a decent buy low candidate right now is Michael Thomas. If/when they announce Winston as the starter I think that could elevate MT overall stats. We know Winston will air it out more than Brees was in his last few seasons. 

Why, is Michael Thomas going to play DB for the opposing teams?

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54 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I think a decent buy low candidate right now is Michael Thomas. If/when they announce Winston as the starter I think that could elevate MT overall stats. We know Winston will air it out more than Brees was in his last few seasons. 

Even if Winston is announced as the Saints starting Qb, that doesn’t mean T Hill won’t play a lot. 

Even at his current ADP on FFC 3:6 I would pass. 

 

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55 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Why, is Michael Thomas going to play DB for the opposing teams?

That's not an issue... the DB's/LB's, are usually Winston's 3rd read, not 1st.  Winston will throw 20 picks, but he'll still throw 150+ passes to Thomas.

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C Kupp buying.  

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2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I think a decent buy low candidate right now is Michael Thomas. If/when they announce Winston as the starter I think that could elevate MT overall stats. We know Winston will air it out more than Brees was in his last few seasons. 

He is cheaper than I thought, got him for 1.12 in a rookie draft 1 QB

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On 6/8/2021 at 7:52 AM, weepaws said:

Vikings TE I Smith Jr I’m buying, I think he could be a very good double digit draft pick. M

Not after what I just read what Zimmerman said about his teams te situation. 

Doesn’t sound like Smiths role is going to get an uptick n

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I do both a 2 qb super flex dynasty league and a 1 qb redraft. I prefer the former. I caught the debate about ff calculator but you really can’t mock draft the auction league format. The sample size I have is small but the auction league format seems both more complex and generally populated with some of the more involved ff players.

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37 minutes ago, DrG said:

I do both a 2 qb super flex dynasty league and a 1 qb redraft. I prefer the former. I caught the debate about ff calculator but you really can’t mock draft the auction league format. The sample size I have is small but the auction league format seems both more complex and generally populated with some of the more involved ff players.

I agree that the auction format is both more complex and more appealing to advanced players--but I would never suggest that auction drafts have become the "norm," as was suggested for 2QB/SF leagues.

The vast majority of FF players are still casual fans doing it the fair and easy way.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I agree that the auction format is both more complex and more appealing to advanced players--but I would never suggest that auction drafts have become the "norm," as was suggested for 2QB/SF leagues.

The vast majority of FF players are still casual fans doing it the fair and easy way.

No one is suggesting that you dope.

Draft format has nothing to do with roster size/format nor does it have anything to do with my previous analysis. Correct me if i'm wrong, DrG is just pointing out that its hard to find useful analysis in auction format, because mock auctions don't really work.

Auctions leagues can still be standard or PPR and they can also be 1 QB, 2 QB, or superflex. Unless i'm missing something, please enlighten me elf.

 

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11 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

No one is suggesting that you dope.

Draft format has nothing to do with roster size/format nor does it have anything to do with my previous analysis. Correct me if i'm wrong, DrG is just pointing out that its hard to find useful analysis in auction format, because mock auctions don't really work.

Auctions leagues can still be standard or PPR and they can also be 1 QB, 2 QB, or superflex. Unless i'm missing something, please enlighten me elf.

Yeah, I think you missed the point of my original contention with Matt.  You can go back over it yourself if you like, or you can move on, but it's not important enough for me to spend any more time on it (unless of course Matt wants to accept my proposed wager).

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, I think you missed the point of my original contention with Matt.  You can go back over it yourself if you like, or you can move on, but it's not important enough for me to spend any more time on it (unless of course Matt wants to accept my proposed wager).

I'm the one who originally suggested that 2 QB and/or superflex is the new norm. Feel free to scroll up even more but I'm saving you the time.

What does the auction observation have to do with anything? Draft format has nothing to do with the argument. You're taking it and running with it as if it means something when it obviously does not in the context of our argument (Matt included.)

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