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Sleepiest rookie sleepers for dynasty

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I enjoy looking at the undrafted guys and the late round guys for gems because there always seems to be at least 1 guy that comes out of that UDFA and 6th/7th round pool that become fantasy relevant

Examples would be James Robinson, Allen Lazard, Austin Ekeler, Miles Gaskin, Phillip Lindsey, etc.   There always seems to be someone.

This year I like these guys

Elijah Mitchell - 6th round out of ULALA to SF - Everyone is on Sermon and Moestert with good reason, but if you're going deep, pass on Gallman and take a chance on Mitchell.  He's got speed to burn.  He's pretty big.  He ran that exact same outside zone run scheme in college.  He's actually very similar to Jeff Wilson in my eyes.  I think when Moestert goes down, Mitchell is going to surprise some people. 

Kylin Hill - 7th round pick from Miss St. to GB - He tailed off in his last season with Mississippi St compared to his 2019 season because Mike Leach showed up with the Air Raid offense, so I feel he was a little undervalued coming into the draft based on situation.  He can catch the ball.  He can block.  He's a decent runner. He's got Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon ahead of him, but that's it.  I really started to like him when I saw his play against LSU when he had 150 or so yards receiving.

Kawaan Baker - 7th round pick out of South Alabama  to the Saints - This is partially about opportunity and partially about talent.  TreQuan really hasn't put it together and the rest of the roster is loaded with guys like Baker.  UDFAs and late round picks that never really caught on.  Payton likes big slot receivers and Kawaan could fit that bill.  He actually kind of reminds me of Marquez Colston in that way.

Jonathan Adams - UDFA signed by Detroit out of Arkansas St - He's an absolute beast of a human being. It's weird watching him play even against Power 5 schools because he looks so big next to everyone even though he's only listed at 6'2" 210.  He's got some route running ability for a guy his size, but where he really excels is going up and getting the ball in contested catch situations.  He's a really explosive athlete from what I can tell.   Where he's going to struggle in the NFL is that he doesn't like to sink his hips and make real efficient cuts.  In fact, one thing I didn't really like but I think is fixable is he likes to take what I call negative steps and rise up a lot on his routes, and he half asses it on his blocking sometimes. 

Josh Johnson - UDFA signed by the Seahawks out of ULM - He's a little bit on the smaller side at 5'9" and about 210, but the guy is a good football player.  I saw him stand up an unblocked Florida State defensive lineman, and he has a certain suddenness to his movements.  The Seahawks backfield is crowded, so you can just put him on a watch list and if he ends up making the team over a guy like Alex Collins or Travis Homer, you know he must've impressed the coaches.  Then just keep an eye on the inevitable injuries that come out of the Seattle runningback unit.

Jaret Patterson - UDFA out of Buffalo signed with Washington - He's this little ball of muscle.  And that's the problem.  He's little. He's listed at 5'9" 195, but he's probably more like 5'7".  But damn can this dude break tackles.  He's the guy that put up 8 TDs and 400 yards in a game this year.  He's a good back, but his size will hold him back since even in college he had trouble blocking MAC defenders.  He's not the Darren Sproles type that will catch a ton of passes and he's too small to really carry a heavy load.  I'm just listing him here because I like the way he runs. 

Jermar Jefferson - 7th round pick out of Oregon St. by the lions - I almost didn't put him on this list.  He's the exact opposite of Jaret Patterson.  He popped up on my radar because I think he has a decent opportunity.  They have Swift and Jamaal Williams, so he doesn't have that much in front of him if Swift gets dinged up, but he's just not what I would consider an NFL runningback.  No burst.  No acceleration.  Top end speed isn't really there and for a decent size guy he has terrible balance.  With all that being said, if he ends up as number 3 on the depth chart, he does have this one cut and go style that would make him consistent.  He just won't make any play beyond what is blocked from what I can tell.

 

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Of those 7 guys you listed. I absolutely loooooooove one of those guys. And i also really, really like another.

Gotta stay on the down low though. I might have fellow owner's watching. :ninja:

 

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Any Shanahan rb involves a risk of over-hype to go along with the possibility.

And as a 9ers fan I have to grudgingly respect the Seahawk backfield, revolving door that it is, because there always seem to be a couple of surprise games each year from RBs you never heard of.

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https://www.hogshaven.com/2021/6/14/22531910/three-winners-one-loser-from-washington-otas-and-minicamp

Jaret Patterson getting a little love.  Of course, the short shifty guy should look great in non-contact drills, so this isn't a reason to go grab him, but at least he's doing what he's supposed to be doing.  I read a report out that he spent the offseason training to run routes and catch the ball and it looks like it paid off.

Quote

Running backs coach Randy Jordan said that the team is excited about UDFA Jaret Patterson, saying that he’s showing a good ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and run, which is something they hadn’t seen initially on tape. A huge key for Patterson, said Jordan, is his ability to develop as a pass protector if he wants to get on the field in games.

But now that this is out there, Patterson is the type of guy that will go use his time off between mini-camp and training camp to hire a coach and work on his pass protection.  The only question is going to be is he physically able to stand up in protection.

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After Gibson and Mckissic there isn’t much left, I think mr Patterson is going to have a job in the nfl. 

Thanks for the article. 

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Larry Rountree III, RB - Los Angeles Chargers.  None of the RB's on that roster are anything special, with the exception of Ekeler.  Even still, Ekeler isn't really a bell cow, but a pass catcher who rushes because every other RB on that roster is mediocre.  In 2019, when Ekeler played the whole season, he only saw 57% of the snaps.  Last year, he was only able to play 10 games.  At this moment, he looks like a guy who's primary usage is as a pass catcher and occasional runner.  Roundtree has the size and quickness for the NFL and stick as a 1st and 2nd down runner.  His game compliments Ekeler because he's not much of a pass catcher, and he's pretty decent at blocking, so when passing on 1st or 2nd down, he's still a viable back to pair with Ekeler in the backfield to create doubt for the defense.  If he addresses and improves on his weaknesses, he could be the starting RB getting the bulk of the carries in 2022. 

My guess is that right now in fantasy drafts, he's free.

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Rhamondre Stevenson if I was in a keeper type league I would look at this rb.  

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I like nobody's pick on RB Elijah Mitchell. Mostert has had some injury issues of late and with Shanhan's system he won't be a bell cow. Sermon, IMO, is clearly the #2 guy and he could possibly supplant Mostert at some point. If Mostert.start to have health issues I could see Mitchell getting some opportunity. He could be.the #3 option over Gallman. Good possibility if Mostert goes down it'll be Sermon and Mitchell splitting with Mitchell maybe getting.30% of carries. Shanahan will play the.hot hand so I like Sermon's upside this year and Mitchell would be a bonus making the 2 a decent duo.

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What happens when J Wilson returns ? 

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He'll likely be on the PUP until they need him is my guess.  He's probably not going to play until week 8 at the earliest.  By then the players that are going to step up will likely have had a chance to step up.

If he somehow makes the active roster, that means the rookies must suck pretty bad.

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Thank you. 

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Couple other guys I like along with.Mitxhell are:

Jaret Patterson(Wash)- McKissic was serviceable behind Gibson last year but I can see Patterson possibly passing McKissic giving the Wash. Football team a spark. He'll end up with more carries than McKissic.

Javian Hawkins(Atl)- I think Mike Davis is bland but serviceable in a lead backrole. Not much else other depth chart for Atlanta so I think Hawkins gets a decent shot in training camp and a fair amount of carries during the season.

Larry Rountree(LAC)- Maybe it's me but I'm just not excited about Jackson or Kelly. By mid-season Rountree will surpass the two and be Ekeler's backup.

 

 

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1 hour ago, DocNiner said:

Couple other guys I like along with.Mitxhell are:

Jaret Patterson(Wash)- McKissic was serviceable behind Gibson last year but I can see Patterson possibly passing McKissic giving the Wash. Football team a spark. He'll end up with more carries than McKissic.

Javian Hawkins(Atl)- I think Mike Davis is bland but serviceable in a lead backrole. Not much else other depth chart for Atlanta so I think Hawkins gets a decent shot in training camp and a fair amount of carries during the season.

Larry Rountree(LAC)- Maybe it's me but I'm just not excited about Jackson or Kelly. By mid-season Rountree will surpass the two and be Ekeler's backup.

 

 

Agreed, good job. 

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Semi Fehoko for the Cowboys.

He's a late round sleeper at WR.

He's huge, 6'4 227lbs. yet still had an athleticism score of 91. At that size, that puts him in the same category as Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and DK Metcalf.

He's still pretty raw and may not produce much as a rookie, but it's clear he was drafted with the idea he could take over Michael Gallup's role next season.

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In 2 QB leagues I love love love the thought of drafting Justin Fields well after Lawrence and Wilson are off the board. My logic being that the Bears are in win now mode. Having Dalton as your starter seems counter intuitive to winning now. I think Fields is starting by week 6 and he could light it up with his arm and legs. Could be this year's Justin Herbert. 

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6 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

In 2 QB leagues I love love love the thought of drafting Justin Fields well after Lawrence and Wilson are off the board. My logic being that the Bears are in win now mode. Having Dalton as your starter seems counter intuitive to winning now. I think Fields is starting by week 6 and he could light it up with his arm and legs. Could be this year's Justin Herbert. 

I think it's great that a QB from a university with such a rich tradition of QBs in the NFL (Bobby Hoying, Mike Tomczak, Cardale Jones, Joe Germaine, Terrelle Pryor, Dwayne Haskins, Braxton Miller, Troy Smith), gets to go to an NFL team with an equally rich tradition of QBs.

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My hypothesis is there is something wrong with Fields.  

Panthers and especially Broncos should've wanted him.  Dallas traded out of 10 to Philly who should've also been interested.  SF took a complete project over him.  

Then as Axe mentioned, he goes to the team that famously sucks at evaluating QBs.  

It just seems like it he was special, some team should've sniffed that out.

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6 hours ago, nobody said:

My hypothesis is there is something wrong with Fields.  

Panthers and especially Broncos should've wanted him.  Dallas traded out of 10 to Philly who should've also been interested.  SF took a complete project over him.  

Then as Axe mentioned, he goes to the team that famously sucks at evaluating QBs.  

It just seems like it he was special, some team should've sniffed that out.

It's still way too early to tell.

Wouldn't be the first time teams passed on a great player.

Aaron Rodgers fell to what? 24?

I be there's 23 teams or however many, that wishes they would have made a better pick, and I'm sure some of them even needed a QB.

Look back at the famous 83 draft. Dan Marino was the last of like 6 QBs taken in the 1st round. two were Elway and Jim Kelly, but the other 3? Who knows?

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27 minutes ago, polecatt said:

It's still way too early to tell.

Wouldn't be the first time teams passed on a great player.

Aaron Rodgers fell to what? 24?

I be there's 23 teams or however many, that wishes they would have made a better pick, and I'm sure some of them even needed a QB.

Look back at the famous 83 draft. Dan Marino was the last of like 6 QBs taken in the 1st round. two were Elway and Jim Kelly, but the other 3? Who knows?

I don't know if calling on "history" to justify the Bears selection is a good idea.  The Bears "historically" suck at drafting QBs.

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The Goat was drafted in the sixth round. 

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On 6/15/2021 at 10:59 AM, weepaws said:

Rhamondre Stevenson if I was in a keeper type league I would look at this rb.  

Rhamondre    Mitchell   Nwangwu   Gainwell   Herbert.... in no specific order but if I where to go after one first if available would be Gainwell, but to each their own preference.

These are the deep draft picks maybe even a couple left undrafted, I roster these RBs in deep dynasty leagues, I know its harder in restricted keeper leagues. 

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18 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I don't know if calling on "history" to justify the Bears selection is a good idea.  The Bears "historically" suck at drafting QBs.

I think deciding he's a bust  before he even plays a preseason game is probably jumping the gun a bit.

I've heard good reports about him.

Yes, the Bears suck at picking QBs, but things can change

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41 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I think deciding he's a bust  before he even plays a preseason game is probably jumping the gun a bit.

Only a weepaws moron would do that.

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21 hours ago, polecatt said:

It's still way too early to tell.

Look back at the famous 83 draft. Dan Marino was the last of like 6 QBs taken in the 1st round. two were Elway and Jim Kelly, but the other 3? Who knows?

Ken O'Brien was in there I think.  

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And yes, I'm aware that good players sometimes get passed on, but in most of those cases, there isn't as much hype as there was around Fields.  Orlovsky had a negative comment about his work ethic and was essentially forced to apologize for it. 

I've never seen such a hyped prospect get passed over so much.  For some reason people weren't even allowed to criticize this dude.  If he is so perfect, why did he get passed on?  That tells me that the performance isn't meeting the hype.

I didn't watch a lot of OSU, bit I happened to watch him against Clemson and thought he was great.  That's why my Spidey sense is tingling.  When you have that much hype and that much exposure, you shouldn't get passed on.  It makes me think something is wrong.  It could be they think he'll be an activist like Kaepernick or something for all I know, but people passed on him for some reason and if you listen to the media, he was a perfect prospect.

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Well, I think part of the hype was the "woke" media, ESPN especially.

I remember Max Kellerman and Stephen A Smith both pitching a fit when they thought the first 3 picks were gonna be Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones, who, all have the same color skin. So they hyped Fields. So I think a good bit of it was about stuff that didn't really have to do with football.

I personally didn't think they over hyped him that much. Everybody had known Trevor Lawrence was going to be #1 since the start of the season. It got obvious too that Wilson was going 2nd a while before the draft. Then I think they did try to hype him over Trey Lance for some reason, when it was obvious to me that's who the 49ers traded up for. Weird scenarios.

It did seem like the real scouts and draft insiders started to shy away from Fields a few weeks before the draft. I saw in mocks though, him going anywhere from 3rd overall to like 20.

Only time will tell...

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1 hour ago, nobody said:

Ken O'Brien was in there I think.  

Yeah, him, Tony Eason and Todd Blackledge, both of whom were total busts.

Ken O'Brien, while clearly not close to the 3 HOFers, was a respectable QB. He made two Pro Bowls, led the Jets, of all teams, to the Playoffs a couple times.

I would say he's about like Andy Dalton

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I might've pulled Tony Eason's name out of my ass given enough time, but I would've never came up a the Todd Blackledge.

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On 6/6/2021 at 9:44 PM, nobody said:

Jonathan Adams - UDFA signed by Detroit out of Arkansas St - He's an absolute beast of a human being. It's weird watching him play even against Power 5 schools because he looks so big next to everyone even though he's only listed at 6'2" 210.  He's got some route running ability for a guy his size, but where he really excels is going up and getting the ball in contested catch situations.  He's a really explosive athlete from what I can tell.   Where he's going to struggle in the NFL is that he doesn't like to sink his hips and make real efficient cuts.  In fact, one thing I didn't really like but I think is fixable is he likes to take what I call negative steps and rise up a lot on his routes, and he half asses it on his blocking sometimes. 

And the first one bites the dust.  He must've really sucked to get cut this early.  Surprised by that with such a weak receiving core in Detroit.

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13 minutes ago, nobody said:

And the first one bites the dust.  He must've really sucked to get cut this early.  Surprised by that with such a weak receiving core in Detroit.

Amon-Ra St. Brown will probably be the topic of my next "Why You Should Draft..." installment.

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On 6/23/2021 at 3:54 PM, nobody said:

he goes to the team that famously sucks at evaluating QBs.  

It just seems like it he was special, some team should've sniffed that out.

Yeah, that kind of history really screwed over Seattle about 10 years ago, didn't it?  What morons!  I mean, the best QB they ever draft was Rick Freaking Mirer... then, they take a QB who lost his job to Mike Glennon at NC State, then went on to Wisconsin... the QB hot bed that gave us guys like, um... wait... um, hang on I know there's um... well, you know, that guy who won the Super Bowl as a back up behind Peyton Manning.  Jim Sorgi, that's it.  Boy, jokes on them isn't it?  Taking a guy like Russell Wilson in the 3rd round.  Idiots.  You'd think that if "he was special, some team should've sniffed that out."

Or, how about those Kansas City Chiefs?  You know, the team that draft that dude from... can you believe it... TEXAS TECH?  BWAHAHAHAHA!!!  Man, how about that school, huh?  Billy Joe Tolliver, Kliff Kingsbury, & Graham Harrell!  The Chiefs best QB draft pick never played for them.  He didn't even play in the NFL until 5 years later... and for another team, and that guy was a 16th round pick!  Boy, were they a match made in heaven eh?  A Texas Tech QB and the Kansas City Chiefs?  Wow, who'd have thought that would ever work out?  You'd think that if "he was special, some team should've sniffed that out."

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And yes, I'm aware that good players sometimes get passed on, but in most of those cases, there isn't as much hype as there was around Fields.

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Russell Wilson was supposedly too small.  Mahomes was a product of the air raid.  

What was Fields flaw?  He went to the big school.  He got the exposure in the big games.  He won.  He's the prototypical size.  What was the reasoning that the Jets are taking a one year wonder, the 49ers took a no-year wonder, Miami decided to stick with Tua, Denver decided they were better off with Lock, and Philly decided that Hurts and his 52% completion percentage of whatever was a better option than this stud from OSU?

Is he a one read qb like one guy said?  Is it a work ethic thing?  What?  What is it?  Why did the guy who was on par with Trevor Lawrence fall?  Is he an asshōle like Rodgers?  What is it?

All I'm saying is there is something wrong.  Every report I read says he's perfect and every time someone says anything that can be construed as negative, they get shouted down.  Is the NFL just racist and they don't want a black stud qb?  

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Gotchya, so when we add in all this criteria that would eliminate other options and includes Fields......

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I'm just trying to reconcile what happened with what the hype is.  If he is so obviously great, why did so many teams pass?  It just doesn't make sense.  When things don't make sense, something's wrong.  

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You're trying to reconcile something that can't be reconciled.  Media is all about hype.  Clicks/click bait.  NFL GM's are all about ego... 'I'm smarter than you'.  Human error on both sides.  The first round has a 50% bust rate, and that's being generous.  For QB's, it's about 75% bust rate.  Sure, it's better than any other round, but overall, we're talking about people on both side, media/pundits and GM's/scouts, who are usually wrong.

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On 6/23/2021 at 3:54 PM, nobody said:

My hypothesis is there is something wrong with Fields.  

Panthers and especially Broncos should've wanted him.  Dallas traded out of 10 to Philly who should've also been interested.  SF took a complete project over him.  

Then as Axe mentioned, he goes to the team that famously sucks at evaluating QBs.  

It just seems like it he was special, some team should've sniffed that out.

You don't think the epilepsy diagnosis has some teams scared? I figured that was the main reason.

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On 6/25/2021 at 7:48 PM, AxeElf said:

Amon-Ra St. Brown will probably be the topic of my next "Why You Should Draft..." installment.

He's definitely on my sleeper list. He landed in a good spot. Goff isn't a world beater but the Lions , in all probability, will be playing from behind and be forced to throw the ball. Swift will see a good bit of throws but the 2 guys atop the depth chart, Tyrrell Williams and Perriman don't excite anyone. Enter, Amon-Ra St.Brown. He'll work his butt off in camp to show he can play and once the season starts he's gonna get his opportunity. Wouldn't surprise me that by mid-season he could be their top receiver production wise. He's gonna be a late round flyer for me and for where I'll probably get him he'll pay dividends. Could he possibly be a darkhorse mini-Jefferson?

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17 minutes ago, DocNiner said:

He's definitely on my sleeper list. He landed in a good spot. Goff isn't a world beater but the Lions , in all probability, will be playing from behind and be forced to throw the ball. Swift will see a good bit of throws but the 2 guys atop the depth chart, Tyrrell Williams and Perriman don't excite anyone. Enter, Amon-Ra St.Brown. He'll work his butt off in camp to show he can play and once the season starts he's gonna get his opportunity. Wouldn't surprise me that by mid-season he could be their top receiver production wise. He's gonna be a late round flyer for me and for where I'll probably get him he'll pay dividends. Could he possibly be a darkhorse mini-Jefferson?

Yeah, probly not a Jefferson, but as you said, the Lions' wideouts are unspectacular, and Goff already favored his slot receivers anyway.  So I'm hoping for PPR volume, a la Jamison Crowder a coupla years ago, rather than big plays.

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I was impressed with Amon-Ra.  He gets separation off the line and he could be a Robert woods type in a couple of years.  I targeted him in my rookie draft, but missed out.  He didn't fit my 6th, 7th, or UDFA criteria for sleepiest sleeper though.  He's just average sleepy I guess.

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