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Fumbleweed

**Round Four-Six Commentary**

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Dis. Cuss. 

Discuss. :bench:

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22 minutes ago, remote controller said:

Mike is high on Chase. He's got him at RB 16.

I (like Mike) am higher than most on Edmonds. The Conner signing is a bit concerning, but Edmonds is motivated and it sounds like the Cardinals are going to slot him into the role that Drake was in last season. Conner also spends a lot of time injured. I also was looking at what was coming back to me in 23 more picks at RB and it looks ugly.

ICEMAN

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CEH was the back i originally typed in before switching to Harris. Im glad I did but CEH could really outperform a 3rd round selection. 

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I don't like this game, and I don't want to play anymore.

 

That is back-to-back rounds getting sniped.  You're all mean, and I want a quiet room to myself.

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2 minutes ago, Vikings4ever said:

Dan, you're 5 in odd rounds. You're 8 in this round.

Thank you.

Too many hours. Let me off.  lol

 

*Fixed*

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and I had Swift already typed in, and Shovel takes him! CEH was close on my list, so I will settle for KCs high flying attack!

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7 minutes ago, robb said:

and I had Swift already typed in, and Shovel takes him! CEH was close on my list, so I will settle for KCs high flying attack!

I like CEH better, and offense will be harder to come by in Detroit this year.

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20 minutes ago, remote controller said:

I like CEH better, and offense will be harder to come by in Detroit this year.

Very true. Maybe Shovel and I could have a side-bet on this, average points per game after the 10 game mark.I have a “Jackson” ready to lose!

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Here. Will pick momentarily. 

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Two running backs were left for me here before a major drop in value at the position. Had to choose between Montgomery and a RB to be named sooner than later. Chose Montgomery ultimately based on higher volume of touches and the fact that he'll likely be the goal line option. Yes, Chicago's offense isn't great, but if Fields can win the job outright fairly quickly, he'll lean on Montgomery heavily, I think. Pleased to get Carson and Montgomery at this turn after focusing on WR initially. 

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...And Sanders was the other guy I was looking at. Both he and Montgomery have very similar value in my eyes. 

Thought the Edmonds pick was intriguing. Definitely out of the box, which can be a good thing for sure. 

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Looked a couples different directions but I think Lamb takes over as the 1 in Dallas this year. Pleased to pair him with Metcalf 

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I was hoping for Lamb with this pick, but I'll take Lockett. A bit inconsistent game to game, but always a year end low WR1/high WR2.

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So many names to pick from and I didn't have one "guy" among RB/WR, so I opted to let the rest of you sort it out for me.

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Hate to depend on a timeshare back as your number 2, but Hunt's good enough to get his touches even if Chubb stays healthy. If Chubb gets hurt again, Hunt can carry the load on his own.

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Perfect example of why QB is overvalued and in reality are the new kickers (slightly exaggerating) Such a deep position with enough annual change near the top that being the first to pop a QB can often feel like being that person who takes a kicker in round 10 and says “at least I’m getting the best kicker”. 
 

I say perfect example because Jackson was the first QB off the board last year in most drafts. I remember in my home league, the Jackson owner saying something to the effect of “watch, I got Lamar and the season will be cancelled with covid” and I responded by saying the odds of him being the top QB at years end are slim anyway... which was met with some skepticism. 
 

Yet here I am breaking my own rule and taking a QB in round 5 because Jackson did (I believe) finish as the QB1 from week 12 on and has the ability to win you weeks. 
 

That said, had someone grabbed him or had he been “sniped”, I wouldn’t have blinked. Still a bunch of great fantasy QB options. 

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9 hours ago, worm said:

So many names to pick from and I didn't have one "guy" among RB/WR, so I opted to let the rest of you sort it out for me.

Worm, you messaged me to let me know I was on the clock when it was after 5pm and then you took 3 hours to make your pick after me?  Not a big deal but made me chuckle.

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43 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Perfect example of why QB is overvalued and in reality are the new kickers (slightly exaggerating) Such a deep position with enough annual change near the top that being the first to pop a QB can often feel like being that person who takes a kicker in round 10 and says “at least I’m getting the best kicker”. 
 

I say perfect example because Jackson was the first QB off the board last year in most drafts. I remember in my home league, the Jackson owner saying something to the effect of “watch, I got Lamar and the season will be cancelled with covid” and I responded by saying the odds of him being the top QB at years end are slim anyway... which was met with some skepticism. 
 

Yet here I am breaking my own rule and taking a QB in round 5 because Jackson did (I believe) finish as the QB1 from week 12 on and has the ability to win you weeks. 
 

That said, had someone grabbed him or had he been “sniped”, I wouldn’t have blinked. Still a bunch of great fantasy QB options. 

Pretty much all of the top 12 QBs have a good chance at being the QB1 at the end of the season.  Some are more consistent than others but the odds of having your QB finish in the top 3 are much better than any RB or WR.  Last year I waited and took Josh Allen and it paid off.

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Was going to grab Jackson here, expected him to fall to my spot, but my backup plan was Prescott.  I forecasted that my pick might result in a run, and certainly a back to back QB pick might generate something of a "run".  My assessment suggested to me that at my next pick the drop off would have been significant.  Moreover I can see Prescott scoring at and past the level of any other player I might take here.

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At 5:00 p.m. yesterday I was 4 picks away.  I sent Fumble this list 

1. Murray

2. Wilson

3. Jackson

4. Dak

Easiest list I ever made.

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I had a feeling we would have a QB run here.  One of the earliest I've ever seen though.

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Got sniped on Herbert, but Burrow will work. On pace last year for record numbers...now they add Chase and a couple pieces on the O-line. Bengals defense is still subpar as well. 

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26 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I had a feeling we would have a QB run here.  One of the earliest I've ever seen though.

Grabbing Dak and Lamar like we did likely created some anxiety.  It is interesting to see it unfold.

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I am normally one of the first in this draft to grab a QB and almost certainly the first to grab a second. Not this year. For once, you guys are taking QBs about where they should be taken, so it's not the value pick for a change. 

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ICE takes both Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers. Now that takes a double helping of guts. 

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Not to beat a dead horse but this is an interesting topic of conversation and this is the June Mock.

The argument against taking a kicker early has always been that the chances the top kicker from the previous year repeats (or that you've identified the new top kicker) are fairly slim and that the PPG difference between the #1 kicker, assuming you do nail them, and the 12th best kicker that an owner takes in the last round or grabs off free agency is not a huge difference. So ultimately that 10th, 11th round pick is better spent on a positional player. Most if not all owners have come to agree on this.

Over the past... decade seemingly.... the QB position has started to mirror this. At first, there were years where it just seemed very easy to identify a late QB who would be a fantasy difference maker. Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson as a rookie, RGIII as a rookie, Peyton Manning, that same season when he was in Denver all immediately come to mind as QB's I had personal experience/success drafting late as the last person in my league to pick a starter. 

Over the last 2-3 seasons... we've now added a ton of depth to the pool of FANTASY starters who are awesome. Some of them may not be the best real life NFL QB's, but from a fantasy perspective, they more than get the job done. 

So if you take the first QB off the board, or draft one early, how much of an advantage are you getting? The only thing keeping QB's from all just falling down into the late rounds of the draft as a position, like kicker, is that nailing the top QB does represent a bigger difference than the 12th ranked QB at the end of the season in terms of PPG. **Edit to add - And also the fact that most teams will be drafting 2.

But even now, I see a number of QB's id be happy with as my #1 with an easy shot to finish top 5 at the position. 

I didn't choose Jackson for fear of a run. He was a specific target that I told myself I would take if my WR and RB tier was empty. To me, he represents the best chance to get me top scoring, week winning performances. I like Dak and a number of the QB's picked after in the "run" but If Jackson was gone I would have sat back and waited. 

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12 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

ICE takes both Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers. Now that takes a double helping of guts. 

I am all in baby!

ICEMAN

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Not a lot of commentary on these rounds so far. Would love to hear more. It's been fascinating really. 

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26 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Not to beat a dead horse but this is an interesting topic of conversation and this is the June Mock.

The argument against taking a kicker early has always been that the chances the top kicker from the previous year repeats (or that you've identified the new top kicker) are fairly slim and that the PPG difference between the #1 kicker, assuming you do nail them, and the 12th best kicker that an owner takes in the last round or grabs off free agency is not a huge difference. So ultimately that 10th, 11th round pick is better spent on a positional player. Most if not all owners have come to agree on this.

Over the past... decade seemingly.... the QB position has started to mirror this. At first, there were years where it just seemed very easy to identify a late QB who would be a fantasy difference maker. Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson as a rookie, RGIII as a rookie, Peyton Manning, that same season when he was in Denver all immediately come to mind as QB's I had personal experience/success drafting late as the last person in my league to pick a starter. 

Over the last 2-3 seasons... we've now added a ton of depth to the pool of FANTASY starters who are awesome. Some of them may not be the best real life NFL QB's, but from a fantasy perspective, they more than get the job done. 

So if you take the first QB off the board, or draft one early, how much of an advantage are you getting? The only thing keeping QB's from all just falling down into the late rounds of the draft as a position, like kicker, is that nailing the top QB does represent a bigger difference than the 12th ranked QB at the end of the season in terms of PPG. **Edit to add - And also the fact that most teams will be drafting 2.

But even now, I see a number of QB's id be happy with as my #1 with an easy shot to finish top 5 at the position. 

I didn't choose Jackson for fear of a run. He was a specific target that I told myself I would take if my WR and RB tier was empty. To me, he represents the best chance to get me top scoring, week winning performances. I like Dak and a number of the QB's picked after in the "run" but If Jackson was gone I would have sat back and waited. 

Can I get a translation for this??

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1 minute ago, remote controller said:

Can I get a translation for this??

Sure. The sheer depth of the QB position along with the fact that fewer get drafted and started compared to RB/WR is making the position mirror that of Kicker in fantasy to a degree. 

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1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

Sure. The sheer depth of the QB position along with the fact that fewer get drafted and started compared to RB/WR is making the position mirror that of Kicker in fantasy to a degree. 

You lose me with the kicker part.  I don't grasp that at all.

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3 minutes ago, remote controller said:

You lose me with the kicker part.  I don't grasp that at all.

It's just been a theory of mine for the last few years.

Fantasy owners don't draft kickers early because you only start one and the difference in them is marginal.

Yet fantasy owners continue to draft QBs fairly early even though the league is trending in such a way that so many QBs are fantasy relevant, which in turn makes the difference in them marginal. 

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38 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Not to beat a dead horse but this is an interesting topic of conversation and this is the June Mock.

The argument against taking a kicker early has always been that the chances the top kicker from the previous year repeats (or that you've identified the new top kicker) are fairly slim and that the PPG difference between the #1 kicker, assuming you do nail them, and the 12th best kicker that an owner takes in the last round or grabs off free agency is not a huge difference. So ultimately that 10th, 11th round pick is better spent on a positional player. Most if not all owners have come to agree on this.

Over the past... decade seemingly.... the QB position has started to mirror this. At first, there were years where it just seemed very easy to identify a late QB who would be a fantasy difference maker. Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson as a rookie, RGIII as a rookie, Peyton Manning, that same season when he was in Denver all immediately come to mind as QB's I had personal experience/success drafting late as the last person in my league to pick a starter. 

Over the last 2-3 seasons... we've now added a ton of depth to the pool of FANTASY starters who are awesome. Some of them may not be the best real life NFL QB's, but from a fantasy perspective, they more than get the job done. 

So if you take the first QB off the board, or draft one early, how much of an advantage are you getting? The only thing keeping QB's from all just falling down into the late rounds of the draft as a position, like kicker, is that nailing the top QB does represent a bigger difference than the 12th ranked QB at the end of the season in terms of PPG. But even now, I see a number of QB's id be happy with as my #1 with an easy shot to finish top 5 at the position. 

I didn't choose Jackson for fear of a run. He was a specific target that I told myself I would take if my WR and RB tier was empty. To me, he represents the best chance to get me top scoring, week winning performances. I like Dak and a number of the QB's picked after in the "run" but If Jackson was gone I would have sat back and waited. 

I don't entirely disagree. This year, though, I count about 9 I'd be happy about having as a QB1 (though that number could increase by 2 depending on how issues Rodgers and another talented but disgruntled/facing suspension QB go).

As the guy who took the first QB off the board, it was a value pick. No RBs or WRs thrilled me at that point, and I can't say taking Keenan Allen and Kyler Murray (or taking the 2 WRs and grabbing a remaining QB in the 6th+) would have made my team better.

I will say, I'm a big believer in taking a good QB2. One who could wind up in the top 5 overall, and has a good shot at the top 10. This year? Going down the list, there's probably 10 that fit that bill after the top 12.

Where the kicker comparison falls off, though, is that QBs will make their own success. Kickers are entirely dependent on how good the offense is at getting into range, but also not TOO good in that they score TDs and give the kickers PAT attempt rather than FG attempts.

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I wasn't planning to take a 4th WR in the sixth round, but passing up Julio Jones at that point seemed silly. I know he's older and on a new team, but man that seems like a bargain to me. 

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