Top Three

[wolves111 69]

Having a difficult time deciding if CMC should go 1st followed by Cook and Barkley. CMC coming off injury as well as Barkley. Cooks seems to get hurt each year as well. Is it time to look at other options like Taylor and Henry, even in ppr?

[jrokh 567]

CMC injury is different than Barkley's, which is a lower body injury. In full PPR I would find it hard to pick anyone but CMC, his usage is going to be so high. I would probably have Henry in the top 3 even in ppr, I would move Barkley out, too risky to take in that spot. As for Taylor, I would remove Taylor post haste from this thread, before the Hyena's on this bored see it and come for your carcass...

[wolves111 69]

Yeah I should have listed Kamara instead but no Brees and a vulture QB like Hill is a negative. How big a negative IDK.

[weepaws 2,452]

Mccaffery, D Cook, the Zeke, top three. 

 

[AxeElf 787]

The problem with the consensus overall #1 pick is that he almost never finishes as the #1 performer.  And this is another problem with snake drafts.  If you HAVE the #1 pick, and you DON'T take CMC, you look like an idiot--but you could legitimately believe that Henry or maybe even Cook (if he could by some miracle play all 17 games) or Zeke for that matter will be the RB to own this year.  In an auction, it's simple, you just pay for the guy you want, and the less you have to pay, the better.

As for Axe Elf, he will take Derrick Henry #1 overall if given the chance, and twice in standard scoring leagues.  He's been the safest, most consistently elite performer among the top RBs over the past 3 years or so, with a penchant for dropping 200/2 burgers in December, and that offense should put him in position to score 20 times this season.

Henry has the best chance of being the #1 RB in fantasy this season.

I dunno that Barkley is in contention, really, since he still has a ways to go to be back to 100%, and I'd probly avoid Cook just because he traditionally goes down with an injury in Week 4, and we don't really know how Kamara will do without Brees, so CMC and Zeke would be my other two in the top 3.

[DrG 94]

I would add that for PPR leagues it’s still CMC and Henry as the top two

[weepaws 2,452]

I don’t know about Henry , top six I would say, over 700 touches last two season, that’s going to take a toll, he lost his rb coach, and with the addition of J Jones possibilities of more pass att, mmm I’m not going to place him in the the top three. 

OP Mccaffery still number one , D Cook I’ll take his avg per game , and the Zeke.  

 

[polecatt 399]

I agree with Axe, I would take Henry tops overall.

After him probably McCaffrey and Cook.

I could see Zeke or Barkley too

[Ray_T 587]

8 hours ago, AxeElf said:

The problem with the consensus overall #1 pick is that he almost never finishes as the #1 performer.  And this is another problem with snake drafts.  If you HAVE the #1 pick, and you DON'T take CMC, you look like an idiot--but you could legitimately believe that Henry or maybe even Cook (if he could by some miracle play all 17 games) or Zeke for that matter will be the RB to own this year.  In an auction, it's simple, you just pay for the guy you want, and the less you have to pay, the better.

As for Axe Elf, he will take Derrick Henry #1 overall if given the chance, and twice in standard scoring leagues.  He's been the safest, most consistently elite performer among the top RBs over the past 3 years or so, with a penchant for dropping 200/2 burgers in December, and that offense should put him in position to score 20 times this season.

Henry has the best chance of being the #1 RB in fantasy this season.

I dunno that Barkley is in contention, really, since he still has a ways to go to be back to 100%, and I'd probly avoid Cook just because he traditionally goes down with an injury in Week 4, and we don't really know how Kamara will do without Brees, so CMC and Zeke would be my other two in the top 3.

honestly, with the sheer # of TD's Henry puts up, I think if someone argued hes the #1 RB I'd say there is a legit argument to make there.   They now have a new WR who puts up all kinds of yards, but not a lot of TD's.   I'd suggest Henry should be the primary beneficiary of this addition.  If he wasnt the #1 RB last year, you could make a good argument he will have a better year and I think it would be hard to disagree with that.

[weepaws 2,452]

13 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

honestly, with the sheer # of TD's Henry puts up, I think if someone argued hes the #1 RB I'd say there is a legit argument to make there.   They now have a new WR who puts up all kinds of yards, but not a lot of TD's.   I'd suggest Henry should be the primary beneficiary of this addition.  If he wasnt the #1 RB last year, you could make a good argument he will have a better year and I think it would be hard to disagree with that.

I disagree with that, I don’t think Henry will have over 2100 total yards and 17 tds this next season, his yards will match 2019 and his tds will match 2018.  And it’s not hard to disagree. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

In PPR, my top 3 are McCaffrey, Elliott, and Barkley.

 

• Cooks misses games every year.  Don't want to risk them being in the fantasy playoffs.
• Henry doesn't catch passes.   Last year he had 2000 yards and & 17 TDs (397 touches), touch count is dangerous... he's not likely to get 2k and 17 again.  I think he's top 7, probably probably not 3 or 5.
• Kamara's biggest asset is receiving.  I think that takes a big hit this year.  If it's Winston, he is NOT a check down guy and if it's Hill, he'll likely just run before dumping it off.
• Too many RB's in GB for me to put Jones that high.
• Top 3 seems too high for Taylor with Hymes and Mack there.
• I wouldn't be shocked to see Akers sneak into the top 3 by seasons end.  Same with Najee Harris.

[weepaws 2,452]

And yet, D Cook has played in 39 games the last three seasons and Barkley as played in 31. 

Mmmm.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

And yet, D Cook has played in 39 games the last three seasons and Barkley as played in 31. 

Mmmm.  

Barkley has done something that Cook never has... played all 16 games.

[weepaws 2,452]

Cook has played in 28 of the last 32 games. Barkley has played in 15 of his last possible 32 games. 

Cook has done something that Barkely never has, he’s played 14 games in back to back seasons.  

 

[Ray_T 587]

On 6/12/2021 at 9:08 PM, weepaws said:

I disagree with that, I don’t think Henry will have over 2100 total yards and 17 tds this next season, his yards will match 2019 and his tds will match 2018.  And it’s not hard to disagree. 

well, if the new additions mean that garbage time starts early, you could be way wrong on the yardage.

but I am currently predicting a small decline in yards and an increase in TD's.    in the end I still think it may be his best fantasy season of his career.

But we can agree to disagree.

I dont have him in any of my keeper leagues, but I sure wish I did.

 

[AxeElf 787]

10 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

• Henry doesn't catch passes.   Last year he had 2000 yards and & 17 TDs (397 touches), touch count is dangerous... he's not likely to get 2k and 17 again.  I think he's top 7, probably probably not 3 or 5.

Despite the fact that he has been the #3 (2020) and #5 (2019) PPR RB in the past two seasons?

So you think the addition of Julio hurts Henry.  I think it will give him more opportunities to score.

I really like Henry's late-season stats, too.  In the past 3 seasons, Henry has 11 games with multiple TDs, 14 games over 100 yards, 8 games over 150 yards, and 4 games over 200 yards in 26 total games in November and December.  In fact, of those 26 games, there were only 6 in which Henry didn't have either 100 yards or a TD.  And Henry has only missed 2 games in his five-season career (1 in the past 3 years - 2019).  That's the kind of consistency and dependability I want for a playoff run.

[weepaws 2,452]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, if the new additions mean that garbage time starts early, you could be way wrong on the yardage.

but I am currently predicting a small decline in yards and an increase in TD's.    in the end I still think it may be his best fantasy season of his career.

But we can agree to disagree.

I dont have him in any of my keeper leagues, but I sure wish I did.

 

So you think he’ll produce more than 17 tds huh? I’m not questioning you, just wondering why? 

[AxeElf 787]

And I never get tired of watching Josh Norman get trucked...

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

12 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Despite the fact that he has been the #3 (2020) and #5 (2019) PPR RB in the past two seasons?

So you think the addition of Julio hurts Henry.  I think it will give him more opportunities to score.

I really like Henry's late-season stats, too.  In the past 3 seasons, Henry has 11 games with multiple TDs, 14 games over 100 yards, 8 games over 150 yards, and 4 games over 200 yards in 26 total games in November and December.  In fact, of those 26 games, there were only 6 in which Henry didn't have either 100 yards or a TD.  And Henry has only missed 2 games in his five-season career (1 in the past 3 years - 2019).  That's the kind of consistency and dependability I want for a playoff run.

Like I said, I think he will be top 5 or 7 (see your comments for 2019).  Also, as I said, he got almost 400 touches.  Jones has nothing to do with it, I just don't think they're going to continue that pace.  Henry went from 230 to 321 to 397... the odds are stacked against him (historically), to get 400+ and stay healthy.  With 17 games instead of 16, I think they're going to get other guys more touches to keep him healthy and fresh.  I highly doubt he gets 2k and 17 again, those numbers don't really repeat.  If he stays healthy, sure, I could see 1700 and 14 (similar to 2019), but that production with the lack of pass catching will keep him out of the top 3.

[AxeElf 787]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I highly doubt he gets 2k and 17 again, those numbers don't really repeat.

With an extra game, they do.  But an increase in numbers themselves in isolation doesn't really mean anything, since all the other players have an extra game too.

The salient factors are Henry's productivity as the absolute bellcow of an efficient offense, his consistency in being a top 5 RB--and THE top RB in November and December for the past 3 seasons--and his reliability in missing 2 games out of 80 career opportunities.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

14 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

With an extra game, they do.  But an increase in numbers themselves in isolation doesn't really mean anything, since all the other players have an extra game too.

The salient factors are Henry's productivity as the absolute bellcow of an efficient offense, his consistency in being a top 5 RB--and THE top RB in November and December for the past 3 seasons--and his reliability in missing 2 games out of 80 career opportunities.

Yeah, pretty sure I said (multiple times now), I think he'll be top 5.

[AxeElf 787]

5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, pretty sure I said (multiple times now), I think he'll be top 5.

Oh?  Well who is THIS TBayXXXVII then?

On 6/14/2021 at 8:37 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

In PPR, my top 3 are McCaffrey, Elliott, and Barkley.

• Cooks misses games every year.  Don't want to risk them being in the fantasy playoffs.
• Henry doesn't catch passes.   Last year he had 2000 yards and & 17 TDs (397 touches), touch count is dangerous... he's not likely to get 2k and 17 again.  I think he's top 7, probably probably not 3 or 5.
• Kamara's biggest asset is receiving.  I think that takes a big hit this year.  If it's Winston, he is NOT a check down guy and if it's Hill, he'll likely just run before dumping it off.
• Too many RB's in GB for me to put Jones that high.
• Top 3 seems too high for Taylor with Hymes and Mack there.
• I wouldn't be shocked to see Akers sneak into the top 3 by seasons end.  Same with Najee Harris.

I guess a double "probably not" means "probably"?

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

My bad, typo.  I said in your first response that he'd be top 5, did I not?  I'm thinking he falls in the 5-7 range.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Cook, Zeke, CMC in any order really. Henry is right there but if coach doesn’t bring a guy in to split with a 17gm season I’d say he’s crazy. More than ever teams will need multiple guys at rb.

[Ray_T 587]

On 6/14/2021 at 5:59 PM, weepaws said:

So you think he’ll produce more than 17 tds huh? I’m not questioning you, just wondering why? 

Dude is a TD machine.  probably the best redzone TD guy in the league.

They add a weapon to the offense who puts up all kinds of yards, but no TD.    Someone needs to get those TD.  hes the most likely candidate.

 

[weepaws 2,452]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Dude is a TD machine.  probably the best redzone TD guy in the league.

They add a weapon to the offense who puts up all kinds of yards, but no TD.    Someone needs to get those TD.  hes the most likely candidate.

 

Thank you 

[wolves111 69]

So to review it seems as though CMC and Henry and then insert here. The faith in Zeke is a bit of a leap, for myself anyway. He never impressed me as someone who loved the game as much as he loves the fame. Arrogant, immature, bombastic, yes. Dedicated, humble, determined , not so much. If I was to pick the poster boy for the athlete that disappears after getting paid he would rank in the top three. After Dak and the O-Line crapped the bed last year he disappeared. Nagging injuries? More like sagging attitude. The great ones like Browm, Peyton, Sayers, Emmitt carried their teams. This guy carries the paycheck.

Can't spend a top three pick on a rb who is inconsistent from year to year. Look at his five year production. Dropped a full yard per carry, increase in fumbles, as well as yards gained. The only thing that stayed consistent is his big mouth.

I take Kamara over Zeke.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

2 hours ago, wolves111 said:

After Dak and the O-Line crapped the bed last year he disappeared.

Pretty confident that this would happen to every other RB in the NFL.  In the last 11 games of the season, Elliott was on pace for a 960 yards 16-game season with Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci, and Garrett Gilbert as his QB's with an offensive line that ranked 27th in the league.

With the 7th best offensive line, in 2019 with Marcus Mariotta as his QB, Derrick Henry was on pace of an 1100 yard 16-game season.  Do you know what his 16-game season pace was with Tannehill?  It was 1,998 yards.  You don't think that a QB and OLine make a difference?  Seriously?

[wolves111 69]

I do. Just wish he was the type pf man who would give the credit to the people that made the game easy for him. That's all. Just my opinion. 

[Ray_T 587]

7 hours ago, wolves111 said:

I do. Just wish he was the type pf man who would give the credit to the people that made the game easy for him. That's all. Just my opinion. 

I know where you are coming from.  but I dont think that is likely with Zeke.

I think its clear his off field behaviour leaves a lot to be desired.  This is no exception.

I dont own him, but if I did I'd find myself worried about whether Zekes gonna do something to get suspended or something of the like.

on the Field hes about as brilliant as anyone out there.    Even with a poor line and subpar QB play he was able to run at pretty close to a 1000 yard pace.   When you consider the trainwreck that the offense was in Dallas last year, thats actually pretty impressive even if it is less than you are accustomed to seeing from Zeke.

 

[AxeElf 787]

Zeke will be fine.  Mike Davis could score 15 TDs as the Dallas RB this year, if Dak and the receivers stay healthy.  Davis would only have 800 yards, but there would be red zone opportunities aplenty.  Zeke could have the 15 TDs, and twice Davis' yardage.

Pretty much a lock for top 5, deserves to be drafted among the Top Three.

[RedzoneMonster 102]

There has never been more of a year where I wanted to draft at the end of the first rounds than this year.  Every single one of the top RBs have huge question marks - CMC, Cook, Kamara, Barkley, Zeke, Henry.  Injury histories, QB changes, high previous usage, etc.  I'd much rather pick 2 of these 3  Chubb/Diggs/Hill in the first 2 rds  than a CMC/K. Allen type combo.  

[weepaws 2,452]

14 team non ppr, I’ll take 4th or 5th, if not those two early spots, I’ll take late even 14th.