Do Not Draft List

[travelr1 3]

Who is on your Do Not Draft list and why are they there?

[AxeElf 787]

Any QBs you'd have to draft before the double-digit rounds, with the exception of Mahomes in the third.

Jonathan Taylor, because there is literally no way he can return better than RB2 value, and he's being drafted in the first half of the first round.

I don't really like any of the RBs going between Mixon and Carson in the 2nd-3rd rounds, either, like Antonio Gibson, D'Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, David Montgomery, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Sanders...  I could probably live with Josh Jacobs, but I wouldn't take him before Chris Carson.  Just about all of them are in some kind of a committee, and I don't want to draft a committee back in the first 3 rounds.

I guess there aren't a whole lot of WRs that are being grossly overdrafted, but I'll probly never draft guys like Amari Cooper, Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen, because I'm more interested in the other WRs on their teams.  Other 3rd-5th round WRs like Allen Robinson, Evans/Godwin, Julio, Lockett, etc. will probly never make it onto my teams either,  just because I have other WRs to target in those rounds who I find to be better draft values (Woods, Thielen, Lamb, Golladay, Aiyuk).

Kyle Pitts, because I'm not paying for the best rookie TE season in history and hoping I get my money's worth, when I can get a top 10 TE like C.J. Uzomah for free.

[weepaws 2,450]

Kelce, I cannot see myself taking a te in the first round.  

J Jacobs l Drake is a real threat. 

CEH, D Williams and McKinnon I think all three play a lot. 

Any Niners Rbs. 

T Lockett I can do a lot better in the 5th, he puts up 3-4 great games and the rest is a bench roster. 

Any Bucs Rbs.  

All Jets and Texans players.  

Dobbins, I can’t take him in the late second round, not enough commitment from his coaches. 

I don’t have a do not draft list, but I tend to pass those players up when I’m mocking.  

I’ll be back m

Thanks OP. 

[wolves111 69]

6 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Any QBs you'd have to draft before the double-digit rounds, with the exception of Mahomes in the third.

Jonathan Taylor, because there is literally no way he can return better than RB2 value, and he's being drafted in the first half of the first round.

I don't really like any of the RBs going between Mixon and Carson in the 2nd-3rd rounds, either, like Antonio Gibson, D'Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, David Montgomery, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Sanders...  I could probably live with Josh Jacobs, but I wouldn't take him before Chris Carson.  Just about all of them are in some kind of a committee, and I don't want to draft a committee back in the first 3 rounds.

I guess there aren't a whole lot of WRs that are being grossly overdrafted, but I'll probly never draft guys like Amari Cooper, Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen, because I'm more interested in the other WRs on their teams.  Other 3rd-5th round WRs like Allen Robinson, Evans/Godwin, Julio, Lockett, etc. will probly never make it onto my teams either,  just because I have other WRs to target in those rounds who I find to be better draft values (Woods, Thielen, Lamb, Golladay, Aiyuk).

Kyle Pitts, because I'm not paying for the best rookie TE season in history and hoping I get my money's worth, when I can get a top 10 TE like C.J. Uzomah for free.

Mike Williams over Keenan Allen? Seriously? In ppr I just see that.

[polecatt 399]

Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley.

Since it would take a pick in the first half or so of the 1st round, there is no way I would take either of them there. Too many other options that are much more reliable.

The talk is always about which top guys are going to blow up, and rightfully so, everybody wants to pick them. I think the first round though is mainly about reliability. Nothing will sink your season faster than a 1st round pick that is way off the mark.

Outside of that, I wouldn't say there are any players I can think of that are on the do not draft list. It's all about circumstances and value. There are of course players I favor and those that I would shy away from, but I don't know any that I would just not draft

[AxeElf 787]

5 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Mike Williams over Keenan Allen? Seriously? In ppr I just see that.

Well, not in isolation, of course.

I just think Mike Williams in the 14th round is a much better draft value than Keenan Allen in the 4th, so I'm more interested in drafting Williams than Allen.

[makindollaz 40]

48 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley.

Since it would take a pick in the first half or so of the 1st round, there is no way I would take either of them there. Too many other options that are much more reliable.

The talk is always about which top guys are going to blow up, and rightfully so, everybody wants to pick them. I think the first round though is mainly about reliability. Nothing will sink your season faster than a 1st round pick that is way off the mark.

Outside of that, I wouldn't say there are any players I can think of that are on the do not draft list. It's all about circumstances and value. There are of course players I favor and those that I would shy away from, but I don't know any that I would just not draft

I wouldn’t select either at 1, but would probably take McCaffery at 3.  Wouldn’t take Barkley before 5 or 6.

[weepaws 2,450]

If I have the number one pick non ppr 14 team I’m taking Mccaffery 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

16 hours ago, weepaws said:

Kelce, I cannot see myself taking a te in the first round.  

Why?

I think he would have been the 3rd highest WR in PPR last year. Having that kind of production from an incredibly scarce position, one could argue he should be selected before any WRs.

[weepaws 2,450]

I don’t draft te until the double digit rounds, but someone in my 14 team league , and like you would, will do so, and I glad for it.  

 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

I don’t draft te until the double digit rounds, but someone in my 14 team league , and like you would, will do so, and I glad for it.  

 

What kind of dumb rule is that? 
 

How many times did Gronkowski burn you?

Why would you ever limit your drafting with that rationale? You’re likening the TE to the K and the DST. No K or DST will ever give you the consistent production and upside as a healthy Kelce.

 

Again I mention position scarcity. That alone makes Kelce a rock solid 1st rounder in all formats IMO. 

[AxeElf 787]

Kelce finished the 2019 season tied with Foster Moreau in receiving TDs with five.

If he does that again, I'd rather have Uzomah.

[weepaws 2,450]

1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

What kind of dumb rule is that? 
 

How many times did Gronkowski burn you?

Why would you ever limit your drafting with that rationale? You’re likening the TE to the K and the DST. No K or DST will ever give you the consistent production and upside as a healthy Kelce.

 

Again I mention position scarcity. That alone makes Kelce a rock solid 1st rounder in all formats IMO. 

I’m sure for you it does, but I don’t draft te and qbs and def and kickers until the double digit round, I steam for a while and than I’ll land a good one , works great for me, how many times have you drafted Kelce is the first round? That’s great see that works for you. 

Its not a rule it’s my own why of drafting, I’m sure you have one, your do you just follow the guidelines. 

Kelce is a great te supported by a great Qb, he’s worthy of a first round pick, please be the one that takes him, I know someone in my 14 non ppr league will. 

Thanks. 

[Kopy 489]

I just saw Sammy Watkins looked like the best WE at Ravins camp.

No way in h3ll am I jumping on that train. Mr. Watkins I Bid You Adieu

 

[wolves111 69]

He's the Ben Simmons of the NFL. All hype, little production.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Kopy said:

I just saw Sammy Watkins looked like the best WE at Ravins camp.

He probly is.

But that's not saying much.

[weepaws 2,450]

2 hours ago, Kopy said:

I just saw Sammy Watkins looked like the best WE at Ravins camp.

No way in h3ll am I jumping on that train. Mr. Watkins I Bid You Adieu

 

Really why not, could it be because he’s been a bust and his Qb can’t throw.  

 

[weepaws 2,450]

1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

He's the Ben Simmons of the NFL. All hype, little production.

Sound like axeelf , expect self hype and no production. 

Amen. 

[tanatastic 2,061]

17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Kelce finished the 2019 season tied with Foster Moreau in receiving TDs with five.

If he does that again, I'd rather have Uzomah.

Still the top scoring te that year though (has been for like 5-6 straight seasons) so anyone paying his high tag for the best te got what they paid for at least.

[weepaws 2,450]

Agreed , if you pay round one price for Kelce you’ll get it back, I’m not paying round 1-9 for a te, but if Kelce was to let’s say fall into the fourth round I’m taking him.  

 

[AxeElf 787]

18 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Again I mention position scarcity. That alone makes Kelce a rock solid 1st rounder in all formats IMO. 

"Two players who maybe weren’t initially seen as early contributors have made waves throughout rookie minicamp, OTAs and mandatory minicamp. Those two players are RG Trey Smith and TE Noah Gray...

Gray has really stood out, specifically as a pass-catcher and has earned repetitions with the first-team offense. It looks like he’s someone that the team plans to incorporate into their 12-personnel looks over veterans Blake Bell and Nick Keizer."  --Five Takeaways from Chiefs Minicamp

Uh-oh.  Maybe drop Kelce to the 2nd round...

[tanatastic 2,061]

21 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Uh-oh.  Maybe drop Kelce to the 2nd round...

He should be there anyway. Sure you will most likely get the years top te in rnd 1 but if I’m gambling that my 1st pick will pan out I want that to be an RB or WR instead of a te (even if the te is a “sure thing”). I’d have Kelce but I still need a stud at the main positions to pan out if I want to have a top scoring team each week, having a te just kicks the can down the road 1 round. Rnd2 is at least easier to stomach than rnd 1. I always want to be the guy who drafts rb and wr that pan out early (no easy feat) and finds the waiver gem te later. 

[Ray_T 587]

On 6/20/2021 at 12:30 AM, AxeElf said:

 

Jonathan Taylor, because there is literally no way he can return better than RB2 value, and he's being drafted in the first half of the first round.

 

There are not many players I will actually place on a do not draft list.   I just adjust my projections to account for risks and potential loss of production.

while Taylor wasnt high on my list, if he could be got for the price of a Low end RB2  or high end RB3 for example, would you draft him?  

if the answer is yes, then hes not a do not draft player.

Not picking on you. your analysis isnt wrong (in my  opinion) I just wouldnt call him a do not draft.

its worth noting that if you and I feel this way, others may start to come around.  so I always tell people to rate them where you think they belong on your list even if it is way below his ADP.  if he falls far beyond where you think he will go (and this does occasionally  happen)  you know at what point in the draft you should start thinking about him.

I agree, 98% of the time this means you are realistically not drafting the guy.  but that 2% of the time it comes to pass, you wanna know where you wanna get him if he actually falls to a spot where he's worth picking.

This really just means prepare, prepare prepare, and research, research, research.

it never ends really.   research and preparation can get you a long way.

[AxeElf 787]

57 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

while Taylor wasnt high on my list, if he could be got for the price of a Low end RB2  or high end RB3 for example, would you draft him?  

if the answer is yes, then hes not a do not draft player.

It's a trivial point, which you admit by saying that it only applies 2% of the time (in your estimation).

But it's even worse than that, because I wouldn't be drafting Jonathan Taylor or any other "committee" back as long as guys like Chris Carson and Mike Davis are available in the 4th and 5th-6th rounds respectively.

Ok, Taylor isn't technically a DO NOT DRAFT player, by your criteria, but he'd have to fall into the 7th round before I start thinking about him--and do you really think that's going to happen even 2% of the time?

[weepaws 2,450]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

There are not many players I will actually place on a do not draft list.   I just adjust my projections to account for risks and potential loss of production.

while Taylor wasnt high on my list, if he could be got for the price of a Low end RB2  or high end RB3 for example, would you draft him?  

if the answer is yes, then hes not a do not draft player.

Not picking on you. your analysis isnt wrong (in my  opinion) I just wouldnt call him a do not draft.

its worth noting that if you and I feel this way, others may start to come around.  so I always tell people to rate them where you think they belong on your list even if it is way below his ADP.  if he falls far beyond where you think he will go (and this does occasionally  happen)  you know at what point in the draft you should start thinking about him.

I agree, 98% of the time this means you are realistically not drafting the guy.  but that 2% of the time it comes to pass, you wanna know where you wanna get him if he actually falls to a spot where he's worth picking.

This really just means prepare, prepare prepare, and research, research, research.

it never ends really.   research and preparation can get you a long way.

Agreed there isn’t a do not draft list, there is a I’ll pass on him now and see if he falls down a few rounds list.  

[polecatt 399]

11 hours ago, AxeElf said:

It's a trivial point, which you admit by saying that it only applies 2% of the time (in your estimation).

But it's even worse than that, because I wouldn't be drafting Jonathan Taylor or any other "committee" back as long as guys like Chris Carson and Mike Davis are available in the 4th and 5th-6th rounds respectively.

Ok, Taylor isn't technically a DO NOT DRAFT player, by your criteria, but he'd have to fall into the 7th round before I start thinking about him--and do you really think that's going to happen even 2% of the time?

How much stock are you putting in Marlon Mack?

I've been able to get him in like the 14-15th rounds in mocks lately. That's potentially golden value there.

I know Taylor is getting all the hype from a strong rookie year. He wouldn't be the first though to suffer a sophomore slump after being hyped up as a stud.

Plus, if both are healthy, it's hard to think Mack isn't going to eat into those touches at least a little bit. I think there's even potential for him to take the starting role at some point.

[wolves111 69]

Where are you doing the mock drafts? Not finding anything worthwhile yet.

[AxeElf 787]

5 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Where are you doing the mock drafts? Not finding anything worthwhile yet.

I don't really do mock drafts; I always end up wishing I actually had the team.

I do a lot of $20 DraftMaster auctions at RTSports, and this year they have the Best Ball Championship, where a $20 snake draft can lead to a $50k grand prize--so as much as I hate snakes, I've been doing a lot of those, too.  I think this year they even have "Dimes" leagues for $10.

So the DM/BB drafts are my "mocks," and then I'll probably do about a dozen managed money leagues too--but I've only drafted one of those so far.

[wolves111 69]

7 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I don't really do mock drafts; I always end up wishing I actually had the team.

I do a lot of $20 DraftMaster auctions at RTSports, and this year they have the Best Ball Championship, where a $20 snake draft can lead to a $50k grand prize--so as much as I hate snakes, I've been doing a lot of those, too.  I think this year they even have "Dimes" leagues for $10.

So the DM/BB drafts are my "mocks," and then I'll probably do about a dozen managed money leagues too--but I've only drafted one of those so far.

I 'll check it. Thx...

[weepaws 2,450]

3 hours ago, polecatt said:

How much stock are you putting in Marlon Mack?

I've been able to get him in like the 14-15th rounds in mocks lately. That's potentially golden value there.

I know Taylor is getting all the hype from a strong rookie year. He wouldn't be the first though to suffer a sophomore slump after being hyped up as a stud.

Plus, if both are healthy, it's hard to think Mack isn't going to eat into those touches at least a little bit. I think there's even potential for him to take the starting role at some point.

I think F Reich drafted Taylor because he wanted the type of runner Taylor is in his offense system. 

And I think Taylor will be their rb1, but Mack won’t just be a bench warmer. 

Now unless Taylor whose from New Jersey is just awfull Mack role should be rb2   I don’t see a rb1a rb1b situation. 

But I think it’s Taylor’s job and he looked darn good the second half of last season, but I do think Mack gets a lot of playing time. 

But I’m buying Mack at his current ADP. And I’m passing on Taylor at his current ADP

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, polecatt said:

How much stock are you putting in Marlon Mack?

A lot, axually.  Mack is no slouch.  In the two years before he got hurt last year, he rushed for 2000 yards and 17 TDs.

I've nabbed him late in a few best-ball drafts, but I don't think I'd want to have to start him, barring an injury to Taylor.  He is, however, a big reason why Taylor will return no better than RB2 value this season.

[tanatastic 2,061]

3 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Where are you doing the mock drafts? Not finding anything worthwhile yet.

Fantasypros has the best mock draft setup imo. 

[Ray_T 587]

5 hours ago, polecatt said:

How much stock are you putting in Marlon Mack?

I've been able to get him in like the 14-15th rounds in mocks lately. That's potentially golden value there.

I know Taylor is getting all the hype from a strong rookie year. He wouldn't be the first though to suffer a sophomore slump after being hyped up as a stud.

Plus, if both are healthy, it's hard to think Mack isn't going to eat into those touches at least a little bit. I think there's even potential for him to take the starting role at some point.

Mack is potentially a better value.  You might be able to get him in the second last round of some drafts.  If this turns into a timeshare, he could be one of the better late round bargains in the draft.  Especially if Taylor gets hurt.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

On 6/21/2021 at 7:54 PM, tanatastic said:

He should be there anyway. Sure you will most likely get the years top te in rnd 1 but if I’m gambling that my 1st pick will pan out I want that to be an RB or WR instead of a te (even if the te is a “sure thing”). I’d have Kelce but I still need a stud at the main positions to pan out if I want to have a top scoring team each week, having a te just kicks the can down the road 1 round. Rnd2 is at least easier to stomach than rnd 1. I always want to be the guy who drafts rb and wr that pan out early (no easy feat) and finds the waiver gem te later. 

You sound like Weepaws.

If you drafted Kelce in the 1st round, theoretically you could still "find" WR1s and RB1s in later rounds like a Stefon Diggs, David Montgomery, etc. Now that I look back on the points and production, there were really only 3 RBs last year that lived up to their 1st round billing (Cook, Kamara, Henry). My only fear is that age finally starts to creep on Kelce, but as Witten has showed us before, he can still be productive while finding softs spots in the zone defense. If you've seen Kelce play, he's literally the best at this. Mahomes should keep his floor extremely high. It might not be the sexiest pick but he's gotta be up there with the safest.

[tanatastic 2,061]

10 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You sound like Weepaws.

If you drafted Kelce in the 1st round, theoretically you could still "find" WR1s and RB1s in later rounds like a Stefon Diggs, David Montgomery, etc. Now that I look back on the points and production, there were really only 3 RBs last year that lived up to their 1st round billing (Cook, Kamara, Henry). My only fear is that age finally starts to creep on Kelce, but as Witten has showed us before, he can still be productive while finding softs spots in the zone defense. If you've seen Kelce play, he's literally the best at this. Mahomes should keep his floor extremely high. It might not be the sexiest pick but he's gotta be up there with the safest.

Saying Kelce should be a second round pick when he has been a 2nd rounder every year since establishing himself as a sure thing top te is not a controversial or hot take. My analysis also does not sound like Weepaws aside from sharing a preference for taking te late which is also not a controversial or outside the box take. 
 

 

[Bier Meister 1,512]

If i recall, Weepaws plays a lot of non-ppr (which is becoming scarce). In ppr leagues (especially with adjusted scoring for tes- ie: 1.5 ppr), even if Kelce's numbers come down he is still good value in the 1st round....depending on draft position.  Between the league  moving to rbbc and injuries, bellcows are uncommon these days. Wrs have become the bellcow in ppr

[weepaws 2,450]

4 hours ago, Bier Meister said:

If i recall, Weepaws plays a lot of non-ppr (which is becoming scarce). In ppr leagues (especially with adjusted scoring for tes- ie: 1.5 ppr), even if Kelce's numbers come down he is still good value in the 1st round....depending on draft position.  Between the league  moving to rbbc and injuries, bellcows are uncommon these days. Wrs have become the bellcow in ppr

Maybe you missed fftodays June mock draft. 

Thanks. 

[Bier Meister 1,512]

8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Maybe you missed fftodays June mock draft. 

Thanks. 

i definitely missed june mocks.  Meaningless right now unless you are starting up dynasty or doing rookie drafts

[weepaws 2,450]

Just now, Bier Meister said:

i definitely missed june mocks.  Meaningless right now unless you are starting up dynasty or doing rookie drafts

Should take a look at it. 

Thanks

[weepaws 2,450]

I looked at last season ppr avg points per game. I used the top 10 wr plus the top 2 te, and I only used players that played in at least 8 plus games, and those top 12 wr te combo scored an avg of 18:5 points per game ppr  

i looked at the top 12 Rbs last season ppr avg points per game, I used only the Rbs that played in 8 plus games, I didn’t want to include the 30 point per game avg by Mccaffery, and that unit avg 18 points per game  

And just like in a non ppr league the farther down the list one goes the better avg belong to WRs , which has been always the case, which is why one should look at Rbs early even in a ppr league .