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AxeElf

Why You Should Draft C.J. Uzomah in 2021

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REASONS:

1.  He's free.  You can draft him in the last round of the draft.

2.  He'll be a top 10 TE in 2021.

 

TIMELINE:

December 2019:  Uzomah played alongside Tyler Eifert in 2019, new coach Zac Taylor's first season.  In the final two games of the season, Eifert caught 6 passes on 10 targets for 91 yards and 1 TD.  C.J. Uzomah caught 9 passes on 10 targets for 62 yards and 2 TDs.

February - August 2020:  Between the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Taylor prepared to make the offense his own.  He drafted a golden arm #1 overall--and he sent the oft-injured Eifert packing.  C.J. Uzomah was set to be the team's TE1.

September 2020:  In the first two games of 2020, Uzomah caught 8 passes on 11 targets for 87 yards--including Joe Burrow's first TD pass in the NFL.  In the fourth quarter of the second game, Uzomah ruptured his Achilles tendon and missed the rest of the season.  Uzomah's 2-game average of 11.35 PPR fantasy points per week made him the TE5 in terms of average points per game in 2020.  Had he continued on that pace for all 16 games, he would have earned 181.6 PPR fantasy points on the season--good enough to be the TE3.  (In standard scoring, Uzomah's 7.35 ppg would have made him the TE6.  He would have to average 7.8 standard ppg to have been the TE3 in 2020.)

June 2021:  C.J. Uzomah is once again set to be Joe Burrow's favorite TD-catching TE.

 

So Uzomah is currently a top 3-6 TE.  But I'll take top 10 for 2021.  I'm not greedy.

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If you look at his last two games in 2019 and his first two games in 2020, he’s avg 8 points per game in his last four games. Non ppr of course.  

Thanks. 

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6 hours ago, AxeElf said:

REASONS:

1.  He's free.  You can draft him in the last round of the draft.

2.  He'll be a top 10 TE in 2021.

 

TIMELINE:

December 2019:  Uzomah played alongside Tyler Eifert in 2019, new coach Zac Taylor's first season.  In the final two games of the season, Eifert caught 6 passes on 10 targets for 91 yards and 1 TD.  C.J. Uzomah caught 9 passes on 10 targets for 62 yards and 2 TDs.

February - August 2020:  Between the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Taylor prepared to make the offense his own.  He drafted a golden arm #1 overall--and he sent the oft-injured Eifert packing.  C.J. Uzomah was set to be the team's TE1.

September 2020:  In the first two games of 2020, Uzomah caught 8 passes on 11 targets for 87 yards--including Joe Burrow's first TD pass in the NFL.  In the fourth quarter of the second game, Uzomah ruptured his Achilles tendon and missed the rest of the season.  Uzomah's 2-game average of 11.35 PPR fantasy points per week made him the TE5 in terms of average points per game in 2020.  Had he continued on that pace for all 16 games, he would have earned 181.6 PPR fantasy points on the season--good enough to be the TE3.  (In standard scoring, Uzomah's 7.35 ppg would have made him the TE6.  He would have to average 7.8 standard ppg to have been the TE3 in 2020.)

June 2021:  C.J. Uzomah is once again set to be Joe Burrow's favorite TD-catching TE.

 

So Uzomah is currently a top 3-6 TE.  But I'll take top 10 for 2021.  I'm not greedy.

When Brandon Brooks ripped his Achilles I remember a rx discussing it on 94.1 WIP. There were two take-aways. Typically it's a two year, full recovery, with the emphasis on "full". That's not to say he can't play after 10 months but rather to what extent and how effective will the repaired tendon be. Secondly, he said, the chances of tearing the other Achilles increase when you tear one side but I can't paraphrase/remember the specifics. 

Not a bad plan but the inherent risk for me isn't worth passing on a guy like Jared Cooks in the 15-16 round or Goedert a bit earlier in round eight.

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Since it basically costs nothing to get him I say it's worth the risk, because there isn't really any.

That said, coming off an Achilles tear, not what I want to hear in a potential sleeper

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6 hours ago, wolves111 said:

When Brandon Brooks ripped his Achilles I remember a rx discussing it on 94.1 WIP. There were two take-aways. Typically it's a two year, full recovery, with the emphasis on "full". That's not to say he can't play after 10 months but rather to what extent and how effective will the repaired tendon be. Secondly, he said, the chances of tearing the other Achilles increase when you tear one side but I can't paraphrase/remember the specifics. 

Well, he was jogging in January, was medically cleared for all activities in April, and then there's this article at the beginning of June.  Like every other player in the NFL, he still has to get through training camp healthy, but I'm satisified that the injury risk is minimal enough for a last-round pick.

6 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Not a bad plan but the inherent risk for me isn't worth passing on a guy like Jared Cooks in the 15-16 round or Goedert a bit earlier in round eight.

I don't know that your season will be ruined if your last-round pick doesn't work out, but even Axe Elf isn't drafting Uzomah as his only TE.  Sure, Cooks is a great value too.  I've gotten them both in a few BBCs.  But people have heard of Cooks; this is a Public Service Announcement regarding Uzomah, whom no one seems to recognize as a viable TE option--and he really could be top 10.

"The Bengals appeared willing to make Uzomah a primary target in their offense last year. Before he went down in their Thursday Night loss to the Cleveland Browns, he was targeted 11 times in just seven quarters of football. He was also the recipient of Joe Burrow’s first career touchdown pass.

Not only would Burrow’s squad benefit from a full year of Uzomah, the seventh-year tight end will want to play as much as possible in the second contract year of his career. There was some talk of Uzomah being a possible cap casualty this offseason, but it became clear the team wanted to see the former fifth-round pick come back and show out in a crucial year."

Seems like if his prognosis wasn't for a full recovery in time for the season, the team would have made other arrangements.

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Right now I see listed as the Bengals second te, but I’m that’s probably just a typo it’s still June.  

 

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21 hours ago, weepaws said:

Right now I see listed as the Bengals second te, but I’m that’s probably just a typo it’s still June.  

 

I wouldn't put any stock into depth charts at this point.  The only depth charts that are out are pundits and reporters.  No NFL team has posted their official depth charts to my knowledge.

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I see no downside to taking him as a Mr. Irrelevant come draft time.  I mean, it's not like you won't grab someone else earlier.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I wouldn't put any stock into depth charts at this point.  The only depth charts that are out are pundits and reporters.  No NFL team has posted their official depth charts to my knowledge.

Right; as far as depth charts are concerned, Uzomah is still "injured."

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Bengals pass catching offense is loaded to the gills with young talent. That WR trio may take time to get it together but they have huge upside. I’ll never forgive the packers for taking Love over Higgins.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I wouldn't put any stock into depth charts at this point.  The only depth charts that are out are pundits and reporters.  No NFL team has posted their official depth charts to my knowledge.

I would agree, that’s why I called it a typo. 

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Bumping this as I missed this thread over the summer. I love the call as my favorite drafting strategy that typically works out (except for last year) is to load up and RB's and WR's and take a shot on sleeper QB's and TE's extremely late. My only question is are you worried about the target share he'll get or do you think he'll score enough TD's to override that fact? The Bengals have three prominent WR targets in Boyd, Higgins and Chase and a good enough pass catching back in Mixon (although Gio is gone which helps). I also love OJ Howard as a basically free TE dart throw but like Uzomah, I worry the targets just won't be there. I think targets/volume is key when it comes to a TE breaking out (Logan Thomas last year with check down Alex at QB and no second WR for example). That's why I find myself leaning to Adam Trautman as my top later round TE as outside of Kamara and MT there is no reliable target. 

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1 hour ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

My only question is are you worried about the target share he'll get or do you think he'll score enough TD's to override that fact?

Well, it's not like I think he will be an ELITE TE or anything; just a top 10-12 TE that won't cost you anything to acquire.  He averaged 5.5 targets and 4 receptions per game in his limited time with Burrow, and that was enough to put him on pace for the TE6 last season, based on PPR ppg.  There were 16 other TEs who averaged at least 5.5 targets per game, and 15 other TEs who averaged at least 3.5 receptions per game, so he doesn't really need to gain any more of a target share than he was getting in the same offense last year (other than swapping out Green for Chase).  But yeah, if he continues to score a TD every other game, that won't hurt anything.

1 hour ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

That's why I find myself leaning to Adam Trautman as my top later round TE as outside of Kamara and MT there is no reliable target. 

You might be interested in another article in this series...

 

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Higbee, Everett, Firkser. 

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