Why You Should Draft Tre'Quan Smith in 2021

[AxeElf 787]

1.  He's free.

2.  Emmanuel Sanders is no longer a Saint.

3.  Smith's new QB has a big arm and a gunslinger mentality.

Winston and Smith hooked up for a 56-yard TD in the playoffs last year...

https://youtu.be/mMDAfbHYa1U

...and it sounds like we should be seeing a lot more of that this year...

“We’ve talked about it a lot,” said Smith, who flashed a big smile when asked if he thinks the passing offense could add more of a vertical element with either Winston or Taysom Hill replacing Drew Brees at quarterback. “Jameis already told me, ‘Listen, when I’ve got the ball, whatever you do, don’t stop running. Because I’m looking forward to stretching the (field) this year. So please don’t stop running on me. Don’t make me look bad if you’re not running.’”

“If your route was a decoy route, now it’s still an option. I’m gonna come backside, and 60, 70 yards down the field I’m gonna throw it.”

https://youtu.be/L8fw2hNdovw

Oh, and he recently went out to LA to spend time as a guest in the Winston home for a while...meet the kids... hug the wife... that sort of thing.

You're welcome.

[weepaws 2,452]

One would hope that a wr5 would be free.  

Thanks. 

[IGotWorms 3,302]

Meh, he’s wildly inconsistent and just not a very good football player. I suppose it’s possible he racks up garbage time stats on a terrible team or something, but that’s the most you could ever hope for.

[nobody 2,031]

I've been holding him since his rookie year.  He has the tools to be good, but he seems to have a limited route tree in the Saints offense.  I don't know if that's because that's all that's asked of him or if that's all he can do.  

I did notice that he has a tendency to round out his breaks, so qbs that don't like throwing interceptions probably wouldn't trust him.  Of course, as we all know, Jameis has no problem throwing interceptions, so maybe he'll get a shot.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the Winston telling Smith anything though.  There were similar stories coming out of TB when Desean Jackson was there and they never connected consistently.  In fact Desean Jackson's best games in TB were with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Meh, he’s wildly inconsistent and just not a very good football player.

Do you have any data from Smith playing with quarterbacks other than Brees, or are you basing your evaluation upon circumstances that no longer exist?

[wolves111 69]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Do you have any data from Smith playing with quarterbacks other than Brees, or are you basing your evaluation upon circumstances that no longer exist?

Well it didn't help playing in Thomas shadow.as well as Kamara. A wasted opportunity playing with an accurate QB to showcase his talent but there's only one football. Would be interesting watching him play with Brady or the kid Herbert. 

[weepaws 2,452]

The opportunity is there but he hasn’t produced in the past, don’t think Winston is going to make him better, he’ll have to  be than he has been in the past  to be productive, and let’s not forgot that Kamara and M Thomas are still on the team even though Bress isn’t, and Smith simply hasn’t produced in the past might be more about his lack of ability than a HOF Qb like Bress.  

Smith is at best a wr 5-4 so he better be free.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

On 6/24/2021 at 10:18 AM, IGotWorms said:

Meh, he’s wildly inconsistent and just not a very good football player. I suppose it’s possible he racks up garbage time stats on a terrible team or something, but that’s the most you could ever hope for.

Yeah, this is a pretty solid assessment.

LOL @  “Jameis already told me, ‘Listen, when I’ve got the ball, whatever you do, don’t stop running. Because I’m looking forward to stretching the (field) this year. So please don’t stop running on me. Don’t make me look bad if you’re not running.’”

DeSean Jackson HATED playing with Winston because he could never get him the ball downfield.  Smith thinks that all of a sudden that Winston became accurate on the deep ball?  Winston can air out the ball... but he can't hit his targets very well.

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

DeSean Jackson HATED playing with Winston because he could never get him the ball downfield.  Smith thinks that all of a sudden that Winston became accurate on the deep ball?  Winston can air out the ball... but he can't hit his targets very well.

I dunno that Jackson's perception is reflected in his stats, no matter how frustrated he might have been.

Obviously his best years were in Philadelphia, where he averaged 14.5 games and 59.3 catches per season for 6 years.  But his 3 years in Washington are statistically equivalent to his 2 years in TB--he averaged 13.3 games per year with WAS to 13 games per year with TB, and averaged 47.3 catches per season with WAS to 45.5 catches per season with TB.  I would think an extra third of a game could account for 1.8 fewer catches.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I dunno that Jackson's perception is reflected in his stats, no matter how frustrated he might have been.

Obviously his best years were in Philadelphia, where he averaged 14.5 games and 59.3 catches per season for 6 years.  But his 3 years in Washington are statistically equivalent to his 2 years in TB--he averaged 13.3 games per year with WAS to 13 games per year with TB, and averaged 47.3 catches per season with WAS to 45.5 catches per season with TB.  I would think an extra third of a game could account for 1.8 fewer catches.

Don't look at overall numbers, that'll muck things up.  Jackson's numbers in Tampa were better with Fitzpatrick than Winston.

• With Winston: 46 receptions (97 attempts) / 47.4% / 689 yards / 2 TD's / 7.1 y/r... Winston's passer rating with Jackson: 52.3
• With Fitzpatrick: 45 receptions (67 attempts) / 67.2% / 753 yards / 5 TD's / 11.2 y/r... Fitzpatrick's passer rating with Jackson: 98.7

Jackson clicked better with Fitzpatrick than he did with Winston.  Evans is the one who clicked better with Winston because Winston is really good at the 50/50 balls and Evans is great at catching them.  This is why Michael Thomas should be back to elite with Winston, because Thomas is great at those too.  If Winston is the guy in New Orleans, I expect Kamara to be split out a lot more often than in years past.  I expect him to catch more passes in the secondary than I would Tre' Quan Smith.

[AxeElf 787]

35 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I expect him to catch more passes in the secondary than I would Tre' Quan Smith.

That's why it's a public service for Axe Elf to alert you to Tre'Quan Smith BEFORE the season starts, because people don't expect much from him in general, and without Axe Elf's prescience, people wouldn't have him on their teams until after Week 1 waivers have run.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

22 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

That's why it's a public service for Axe Elf to alert you to Tre'Quan Smith BEFORE the season starts, because people don't expect much from him in general, and without Axe Elf's prescience, people wouldn't have him on their teams until after Week 1 waivers have run.

If Smith ends up with more receptions, yards, and TD's this season than in past seasons, I'll be shocked.  In fact, I expect him to have the worst year of his career (if Winston is the QB).  I'd project 30 receptions for 310 yards and 2 TD's... in 13 games played.  With Hill?  Don't know.  He may be what he was.  In the 3 games that he played with Hill, his weekly average wasn't much lower than his norm with Brees.

If you want to put out a PSA for everyone (for a Saints player), tell them to take Adam Trautman before the 13th round (his current ADP).  He's a guy that could light up the stat sheet if Winston is the starter.  He's Cameron Brate 2.0.

[AxeElf 787]

28 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If you want to put out a PSA for everyone (for a Saints player), tell them to take Adam Trautman before the 13th round (his current ADP).  He's a guy that could light up the stat sheet if Winston is the starter.  He's Cameron Brate 2.0.

Trautman could be a value too--although he 's basically still a rookie TE after getting just 15 receptions behind Cook last year, and he played college ball in the MAC--but if you like him, why would you want to take him before his ADP?

Parenthetically, his ADP for RTSports money leagues is 189.24... end of the 19th round in a 10-teamer, or late 16th in a 12-teamer.

I like Smith, but I'm not recommending grabbing him in the 10th or anything.  Get him in the last round or two, and avoid the Week 1 waiver rush.

[nobody 2,031]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Don't look at overall numbers, that'll muck things up.  Jackson's numbers in Tampa were better with Fitzpatrick than Winston.

• With Winston: 46 receptions (97 attempts) / 47.4% / 689 yards / 2 TD's / 7.1 y/r... Winston's passer rating with Jackson: 52.3
• With Fitzpatrick: 45 receptions (67 attempts) / 67.2% / 753 yards / 5 TD's / 11.2 y/r... Fitzpatrick's passer rating with Jackson: 98.7

Jackson clicked better with Fitzpatrick than he did with Winston.  Evans is the one who clicked better with Winston because Winston is really good at the 50/50 balls and Evans is great at catching them.  This is why Michael Thomas should be back to elite with Winston, because Thomas is great at those too.  If Winston is the guy in New Orleans, I expect Kamara to be split out a lot more often than in years past.  I expect him to catch more passes in the secondary than I would Tre' Quan Smith.

Preach.  I remember that I was invested in DeSean at the time and when Jameis came back, I was thinking, "Well Desean can go back to the bench now," and sure enough his production tailed right off.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Trautman could be a value too--although he 's basically still a rookie TE after getting just 15 receptions behind Cook last year, and he played college ball in the MAC--but if you like him, why would you want to take him before his ADP?

Parenthetically, his ADP for RTSports money leagues is 189.24... end of the 19th round in a 10-teamer, or late 16th in a 12-teamer.

I like Smith, but I'm not recommending grabbing him in the 10th or anything.  Get him in the last round or two, and avoid the Week 1 waiver rush.

I just mean to get him a round or two higher, nothing extreme.  If Trautman is going in the 16th, I'd have no qualms taking him in the 14th to make sure I get him.  He'd certainly be my fall back plan though, as there's literally 15+ or so TE's that are startable these days.  I'll probably wait until like round 10 or 12, maybe later and get a guy like Jonnu, Giseki, or Tonyan, then get Trautman as a guy who, if he does have a Cameron Brate season (circa 2016), then I got me a top 7 TE.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

Preach.  I remember that I was invested in DeSean at the time and when Jameis came back, I was thinking, "Well Desean can go back to the bench now," and sure enough his production tailed right off.

Yeah, I mean it's really a shame.  I'm not kidding... talent-wise, Winston is elite.  Literally one of the top 5 in the NFL.  The problem is, for a talented he is, he's the exact opposite mentally.  He just doesn't have the mental makeup to be a starter in the NFL.  "Good" (not even great, special, or better), QB's get to the line and already check off their first read if necessary.  Winston doesn't do that until his second drop back snap.  That's why he's a 2-read guy.  Go look at target share in Tampa in 2016 or 2019... that's what'll happen in New Orleans this year.  There's a literally 0% chance that the 4th option in New Orleans has more that 45 to 50 targets... barring injury to someone.  The key is, who'll be the third?  I think it'll be Trautman because Winston likes to throw to tight ends and there's no one else on that roster who's a reliable pass catcher.

A legit possibility I see in New Orleans is Montgomery and Murray getting like 80% of the carries with Karama getting a spattering here and there.  I see Kamara being split out wide in a lot of 21 personnel where Kamara comes out of the back field, goes in motion and lines up in the slot.  They'll have Thomas on the outside with Karama in the slot and on the other side have some "deep threat" WR wide with Trautman in-line that runs a crossing route about 5 to 10 yards pass the line.  Winston will drop back and look to Thomas, then to either Kamara or Trautman then the throw a deep ball over the head or wide of the mark to his deep threat.  That'll happen on EVERY play.  The only variation will be that 3rd read.  It might be to a DB or LB.  It could be a sack.  It could be a throw away... but the significant majority of the time, like 80%, it will not be a completion.

[AxeElf 787]

43 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I just mean to get him a round or two higher, nothing extreme.  If Trautman is going in the 16th, I'd have no qualms taking him in the 14th to make sure I get him.  He'd certainly be my fall back plan though, as there's literally 15+ or so TE's that are startable these days.  I'll probably wait until like round 10 or 12, maybe later and get a guy like Jonnu, Giseki, or Tonyan, then get Trautman as a guy who, if he does have a Cameron Brate season (circa 2016), then I got me a top 7 TE.

If he does that, he'll be almost as good as Uzomah, whom you can get in the last round.

[AxeElf 787]

24 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Winston will drop back and look to Thomas, then to either Kamara or Trautman then the throw a deep ball over the head or wide of the mark to his deep threat.  That'll happen on EVERY play.  The only variation will be that 3rd read.  It might be to a DB or LB.  It could be a sack.  It could be a throw away... but the significant majority of the time, like 80%, it will not be a completion.

So Tre'Quan Smith will have a 60 yard TD on every fifth play?

Sign me up!

[nobody 2,031]

Guys Kawaan Baker is the obvious pass catcher to invest in after Michael Thomas.  And you don't even need to draft him.  Just pick him up the day before the season starts.

[Ray_T 587]

well, if you are drafting late in the draft and looking for a lotto ticket, I'd say hes as good as anyone you will find at that point.

Brees was a great player, but his arm just wasn't there last year and teams knew it.

I suspect he will be a better player in this year's offense than he was last year. (assuming Winston is starting)  

If Winston isnt starting I'd say hes less desirable.

[AxeElf 787]

3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I suspect he will be a better player in this year's offense than he was last year. (assuming Winston is starting)  

If Winston isnt starting I'd say hes less desirable.

Indeed, but I'm pretty sure it's safe to assume Winston.

[Ray_T 587]

Just now, AxeElf said:

Indeed, but I'm pretty sure it's safe to assume Winston.

I assume nothing. 

I agree it probably should be him but I also thought hed be playing when Brees got hurt and that didnt happen either.   Thus the condition I put on my agreement.

If it is announced Winston wont start, Smith has no value to me at that point.  not because he has no talent, but because of who is throwing him the ball.   The offense would have a completely different look depending on who the QB is.

[AxeElf 787]

8 minutes ago, nobody said:

Guys Kawaan Baker is the obvious pass catcher to invest in after Michael Thomas.

I know you're kidding, but it's still a pretty dry joke.  What's the point?

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I assume nothing.

This is the recommended strategy for non-Axe Elfs.

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

If it is announced Winston wont start, Smith has no value to me at that point.  not because he has no talent, but because of who is throwing him the ball.   The offense would have a completely different look depending on who the QB is.

Agreed.  I wouldn't be touting him if Hill were starting either.  But he's not, so I am.

Smith's relationship is with Winston, not Hill.

[weepaws 2,452]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

well, if you are drafting late in the draft and looking for a lotto ticket, I'd say hes as good as anyone you will find at that point.

Brees was a great player, but his arm just wasn't there last year and teams knew it.

I suspect he will be a better player in this year's offense than he was last year. (assuming Winston is starting)  

If Winston isnt starting I'd say hes less desirable.

I think your talking about him being more productive this season, it won’t b because of Winston if T Smith is more productive, it would be because he should now be a starter this season. 

 

[BobSanders_33 127]

14 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think your talking about him being more productive this season, it won’t b because of Winston if T Smith is more productive, it would be because he should now be a starter this season. 

 

The clear takeaway from Smith's comments from Winston..... LOAD UP on Taysom Hill!

[Baker Boy 1,477]

On 6/23/2021 at 11:58 PM, weepaws said:

One would hope that a wr5 would be free.  

Thanks. 

Rotowire has him #2 on their Depth Charts.

[weepaws 2,452]

4 hours ago, BobSanders_33 said:

The clear takeaway from Smith's comments from Winston..... LOAD UP on Taysom Hill!

Yea both will be playing Qb this season. 

[weepaws 2,452]

1 hour ago, Baker Boy said:

Rotowire has him #2 on their Depth Charts.

Yea thanks , but not talking about the teams depth chart, talking ff team depth chart.  

Thanks. 

[DrG 94]

1-2 years ago, Winston had LASIK. So his accuracy might get a slight boost.

I’d think WR3 upside at WR4/5 cost is not bad

[weepaws 2,452]

Cost is wr5-6 with wr4 upside, he’s not going to be worthy of a flex wr.  

T Hill is going to play a lot this season , Winston will get the majority of the work load, but T Hill is going to play also. 

Don’t let the OP fool anyone into buying fools gold. 

Thanks. 

[DrG 94]

If a WR3 or 4 then drafting or not drafting depends on the size of your league and team roster size.

 

[weepaws 2,452]

Genesis 1:1

I respond with a 12 team league in mind, I play in a 14 team non ppr but most ff owners can’t handle something that large.    

So I keep it simple, but kiddie leagues I don’t count, like 10 and smaller leagues

So he’s a wr 5- 6 with low wr4 upside.  Sorry about the silly faces didn’t even know I had them to use. Now I’m going to have even more fun . 

Thanks.

[DrG 94]

On 6/25/2021 at 5:17 PM, weepaws said:

I think your talking about him being more productive this season, it won’t b because of Winston if T Smith is more productive, it would be because he should now be a starter this season. 

 

Yes this is a good argument for taking a flyer on him late in your draft! But Winston airing it out more than a fading Brees may not hurt that assessment. Smith had 7 games last year of 4 or more catches, he’s just 25 and he produced in the playoffs.

[weepaws 2,452]

I think he’s a late flyer pick that won’t be worth more than that late flyer pick, I attack Rbs and WRs early and often in my 14 non ppr league so I’m really not even concern about him I’ll have my WRs drafted by the time his value should come around. 

But I still not see more value than a wr4.  

 

[weepaws 2,452]

L Murray right now is really the only player on the Saints that I’m targeting based on his ADP. 

I think Kamara and M Thomas ADP is to high l and I don’t even think about T Smith.  

 

[DrG 94]

23 minutes ago, weepaws said:

L Murray right now is really the only player on the Saints that I’m targeting based on his ADP. 

I think Kamara and M Thomas ADP is to high l and I don’t even think about T Smith.  

 

You’ve written 9 posts about him ….

[weepaws 2,452]

8 minutes ago, DrG said:

You’ve written 9 posts about him ….

I know this is a great site. Plus we have the Football Guru, now where else would you rather be ? 

Right. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

1 hour ago, DrG said:

Yes this is a good argument for taking a flyer on him late in your draft! But Winston airing it out more than a fading Brees may not hurt that assessment. Smith had 7 games last year of 4 or more catches, he’s just 25 and he produced in the playoffs.

Tre'Quan Smith is a lottery ticket pick.  Nothing wrong with taking him with the last pick or two of your draft in hopes he pans out.  Here's the thing.  Anyone who drafts him, will cut him by Week 4.  Yes, Winston has a significantly better arm than Brees, but Brees has a significantly better NFL brain than Winston.  Smith is a guy where he'll probably have 2 catches in Week 1 for 65 yards and you'll say "Yes, it's just a matter of time!"  Then, week's 2 and 3 he'll combine for 2 catches for 20 yards and you'll cut him.  Of course, Week 4 he'll have 3 for 75 and a score, and someone will go pick him up and his next 3 weeks will be just like his first 3 weeks.  He's a great option for Best Ball... but really he's a waste of a pick in any other format.  As I said above, Winston has terrible accuracy on the deep ball, so anything with Smith will be extremely inconsistent.  You'll never start him unless you have absolutely no choice what-so-ever.  Even then, you'd probably be better off taking an FA flier.

In DeSean Jackson's two seasons in Tampa, he played 18 games with Winston.  In those 18 games, he only scored at least 12 points just 6 times (max score of 18), while failing to score at least 8 points in 10 of them.  In his 8 games with Fitzpatrick, he scored at least 12 point in 5 of them and over 20 twice.  His avg ppg with Winston was 9.6 and 14.6 with Fitzpatrick.  Main reason: Winston is a terrible reader of defense and awful at going through his progressions.  Smith will never be a viable starter unless Thomas and Kamara miss significant time.

[DrG 94]

TB37 agree re Jamie’s’ historical accuracy and decision making. Really haven’t seen enough of him at NO and after LASIK.

Smith is now 25 and if I recall correctly he declared a year early.. So maybe he’s not going to do much but like others have said he is a late round selection who has a shot at much better than expected production.

So as a wr5/6 who has a chance to get you 4/80/1 any week, worth a shot