Why You Should Draft Tre'Quan Smith in 2021

[weepaws 2,452]

Even if T Smith was to have a 25% increase in his ff point total, he still would be a wr5. 

He still would register less than 90 points.  

He’s worthy of a bench wr slot if you drafted your Rbs and WRs late, and wasted those early picks on qbs and tes and silly slots like that.  

 

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

pretending, I guess, that it wasn't a trick play. 

Oh no...  My league gives points for trick plays, too!

(Unfortunately, not for postseason games, though; so I guess you can say I am pretending it wasn't a playoff game.)

[nobody 2,031]

7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Exactly.

With Fitz: 27 receptions (38 attempts), 552 yards and 3 TD's

With Winston: 14 receptions (36 attempts), 222 yards and 1 TD.

 

The one thing that Smith has going for him that Jackson didn't, is youth/inexperience.  Jackson saw right through Winston's crap, so did everyone else.  There wasn't a single person in that locker room that was sorry the Bucs let him walk.  He's now brought up the playoff game twice... pretending, I guess, that it wasn't a trick play.  Kamara was lined up behind the center and Winston was lined up as a WR.  Kamara took the snap and handed it to Sanders who then pitched it to Winston.  Yeah, Winston threw a great pass... he's very talented, but no one was within 10 yards of Smith.  That doesn't happen on a regular basis.  Oh, and Smith was the second (maybe first), read on that play.  He looked off to the side where Kamara was but he was triple covered, then he saw Smith.  There was also virtually no pass rush as the Bucs weren't even within 7 yards of Winston.  Props to Sean Payton because he totally fooled the Bucs on that play.

My favorite was week 3 of 2018.  Fitz played the first half and DJAX had like 107 yards receiving.  Winston comes in for the second half and he ends the game with 112.

[AxeElf 787]

39 minutes ago, nobody said:

My favorite was week 3 of 2018.  Fitz played the first half and DJAX had like 107 yards receiving.  Winston comes in for the second half and he ends the game with 112.

Wasn't that week.

Fitz is the only QB of record for the Buccaneers in Week 3 of 2018, and DJax went 3/37/0.

[DrG 94]

Both SI and ESPN tagged Smith as a guy who might outproduce his draft position.  A few posters mentioned players they’d rather have, if they’re available. That’s fair. But the rationale that Smith might out produce his position is valid

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, DrG said:

Both SI and ESPN tagged Smith as a guy who might outproduce his draft position.

They probly have to assign a couple of people to follow what Axe Elf says every season, just as a matter of due diligence.

[weepaws 2,452]

2 hours ago, DrG said:

Both SI and ESPN tagged Smith as a guy who might outproduce his draft position.  A few posters mentioned players they’d rather have, if they’re available. That’s fair. But the rationale that Smith might out produce his position is valid

I would hope so, his ADP is in the same low level as kickers. 

And supposedly a starting wr. 

So for him to out produce that ADP should be pretty simple.  

100 or less non ppr ff points , very low wr4 - high wr 5 is the goal. 

[nobody 2,031]

17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Wasn't that week.

Fitz is the only QB of record for the Buccaneers in Week 3 of 2018, and DJax went 3/37/0.

Week 4?

[AxeElf 787]

6 hours ago, nobody said:

Week 4?

Maybe.  At least they both played that week.  Looks like DJax was the only guy Fitz could hit, though; as he went 9/18 with 1 INT and no TDs before Winston relieved him.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

On 7/1/2021 at 5:19 PM, nobody said:

Week 4?

 

On 7/2/2021 at 12:10 AM, AxeElf said:

Maybe.  At least they both played that week.  Looks like DJax was the only guy Fitz could hit, though; as he went 9/18 with 1 INT and no TDs before Winston relieved him.

Ugh, that Bears game. That was tragic.  That might have been the only good game Trubisky had in his career.  Yeah, Winston was almost perfect when he came in, as far as completions.  He was 16-20, but he still only had 19 more yards than Fitz.  They were down 30 points in the 2nd half when Winston came in and threw for 145 yards, a score, and 2 picks.  Funny thing, he targeted Jackson 3 times in the 2nd half and the first one was a deep ball that was overthrown and picked off... the other two were short passes, one incomplete and the other a 5 yard gain.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

As I said at the very beginning, there's nothing wrong with taking Smith at the end of the draft like Elf said, the thing is, you need to have low/non-existent expectations.  Winston, while having a great arm and talent, is still a terrible QB.  He's terrible at reading defenses, going through his projections, calling audibles, making line changes, and leading his receivers.   There will be a few games where Smith could post a 5/120/1 line, but there will probably be 10 games with 2/21/0 with the other 2 or 3 being something like 5/45.  He's perfect for best ball and nothing else.  If you draft him, just know that he's going to be a high risk/high reward play.  Until this combination proves to be effective, I'd be hesitant to start Smith in any given week.  He's a lottery ticket selection.  If you're willing to give him 3 to 4 weeks, then take him, nothing wrong with it at that point in the draft.  But, if you're quick to cut late draft picks if they don't produce right away, then don't waste your time.

[weepaws 2,452]

Unless one can draft 5 better options at wr.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

Depends on how deep your rosters go.  In my office league, which isn't doesn't have a lot of strong players, we only have a 2QB league with16 roster spots, so that leaves only 10 roster spots (max), for RB's and WR's.  I usually have 6 RB's, so I won't have a 5th WR to begin with.  Now, on the other hand, in my keeper league which is very competitive, also a 2 QB league, we have 24 roster spots.  I usually have 7 or 8 WR's, so Smith is a perfectly viable option.  But again, he's a guy that's most likely one of the first to get cut if he doesn't start hot out of the gate.  I'd actually like him as a sell high guy if he has 2 strong weeks to begin the season.

[nobody 2,031]

I'm in a 14 team dynasty with 26 man rosters including 5 IDPs and he's been on my roster since his rookie season.  That's how I know he's not very good.  If he can't get it going in a contract year, he'll never get it going.

[weepaws 2,452]

Oh my soul 26 player roster. 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

On 6/25/2021 at 2:36 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Don't look at overall numbers, that'll muck things up.  Jackson's numbers in Tampa were better with Fitzpatrick than Winston.

• With Winston: 46 receptions (97 attempts) / 47.4% / 689 yards / 2 TD's / 7.1 y/r... Winston's passer rating with Jackson: 52.3
• With Fitzpatrick: 45 receptions (67 attempts) / 67.2% / 753 yards / 5 TD's / 11.2 y/r... Fitzpatrick's passer rating with Jackson: 98.7

Jackson clicked better with Fitzpatrick than he did with Winston.  Evans is the one who clicked better with Winston because Winston is really good at the 50/50 balls and Evans is great at catching them.  This is why Michael Thomas should be back to elite with Winston, because Thomas is great at those too.  If Winston is the guy in New Orleans, I expect Kamara to be split out a lot more often than in years past.  I expect him to catch more passes in the secondary than I would Tre' Quan Smith.

Did he ever address these facts?

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

On 7/7/2021 at 10:41 PM, WhiteWonder said:

Did he ever address these facts?

No, but he doesn't have to.  I get his point.  He's only advocating taking Smith with your last pick because Smith's ADP isn't even tracked, so he is free.  He's basically taking him to beat the WW rush when he has a huge game early on (which could happen).  The issue I had was that his justification for his opinion was that Smith came out and said that he and Winston... blah, blah, blah (it's in the first post).  My point was that if that's your reasoning, then it's not a good one.

I've said this throughout the thread and other posts, Winston is a 2-read QB.  He almost never gets to his 3rd option.  Look at 2019 as an example.  Godwin - 121 targets, Evans 118 - targets, Perriman - 69 targets.  What makes that even worse is that Perriman got 26 of those targets in the last 3 games where Evans missed all 3 and Godwin missed the last 2.  After him Perriman, Brate was 4th on the team with 55 targets.  Scott Miller only got 26 targets from Winston (13 rec/200 yards/1 TD), as the teams #4 WR (on the depth chart), but yet, being #5 last year, Brady was able to target him 53 times (33/501/3).  It's clear that Winston is terrible at going through his progressions.  Dirk Koetter (and Tom Brady), did do a better job at getting WR groupings and play calls in better than Arians/Leftwich, so 2018 looks better... as a whole, but game by game, it's anyone's guess who's the #1, #2, and #3 reads.

The thing is, what's Sean Peyton going to do?  How's he going to call the plays?  If Smith is routinely the #2 progression, he very well could have a good year.  Also, it means that Kamara or Thomas will be underwhelming because Smith's production will be at the cost of one of them.  This is me, only guessing, but I think Peyton is going to run a lot of 21 personnel where Kamara starts out in the backfield and motions up to the line on a lot of pass plays and he'll be the #1 or 2 option with Thomas being the other.  That'll mean scraps for Smith.  Something like 3 targets a game... maybe 4.  Winston's track record with similar players like Jackson and Miller tells me, that the normal stat line for Smith will be 2 receptions for 30 yards.  Sure, he might throw up a 3/95/1 here and there... and I expect that to happen, but it'll be like 3 or 4 times and never predictable.

Smith is a great option for Best Ball leagues, in my opinion.  Otherwise, he's a pure lottery ticket massive risk/high return.  Drafting him will solely be based on how deep your roster is.  If the Saints have a WR who's a slants/over the middle guy a-la Adam Humphries, Wes Welker type... THAT's the guy to target.  He'll get 5 to 7 targets a game.

 

Update:  I'll add this.  If Smith is "that guy", the Adam Humphries/Wes Welker type, in Peyton's offense?  Then if you did draft Smith, the dividends will surely pay off greatly.  That of course is NOT what the OP is banking on though.

[AxeElf 787]

Oh yeah, and he'll be the Saints WR1 until October.

[jrokh 567]

51 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Oh yeah, and he'll be the Saints WR1 until October.

Probably, but there goes your first bullet point. He will no longer be free..

[tanatastic 2,061]

24 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Probably, but there goes your first bullet point. He will no longer be free..

Yep, now his adp will shoot up and he will be drafted with WR3 expectations. Maybe he takes advantage and breaks out, but I would be much more enthusiastic with Brees. Coach has a borderline obsession with Taysom Hill so it’s only a matter of time before he’s starting, if not week 1.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

Coach has a borderline obsession with Taysom Hill so it’s only a matter of time before he’s starting, if not week 1.

Coach also has a bit of an obsession with QBs who can throw the ball, so that disqualifies Hill.  His obsession as a gadget player will continue, however.

[nobody 2,031]

What the hell...

Thomas (ankle) is expected to miss at least the first month of the upcoming season and may not be back to full strength until November or December, Larry Holder of The Athletic reports.

Analysis: Numerous reports have mentioned a four-month timeline for his recovery from June ankle surgery, but injury expert Virginia Zakas told The Athletic that 24 weeks (about 5.5 months) would be ideal to reduce the odds of re-injury. Either way, Thomas appears unlikely to play in September, and he could even open the regular season on the PUP list -- which requires a six-game absence -- if the Saints aren't pleased with his rehab progress by the end of the preseason. For now, the Saints will hope to avoid that outcome, even if they also prepare for it. A signing or trade should be coming soon, considering Tre'Quan Smith is the only healthy wide receiver on the roster with more than 213 career receiving yards.