Jump to content
JustinCharge

fantasy baseball trick

Recommended Posts

I have a great secret when it comes to fantasy baseball.  I am hesitant to reveal my secrets, but I have decided to share one with the board.  So here it is.

There is a trick to finding effective starting pitching on the waiver wire.  Here are the rules as I sussed them out over the years.

1.  Look for guys that are established major league pitchers with little chance of being sent to the minors.
2.  Look for guys that got absolutely SHELLED in their previous start.  Like a ERA over 9 and a WHIP over 2.  Bonus if they lasted 3 innings or less.  Bonus if they have a LOT of quality starts.
3.  Pick them up and start them in their next start.

The theory is that they didn't have their stuff and have effectively been skipped in the rotation with such a short outing.  The next time through the rotation, they are fresh and have a good outing and often a strong outing.

I have been doing this one for years and it works extremely well.  It is not perfect.  In fact, if you just filter for ERA over 9 and WHIP over 2 in their last start, it works pretty well.  I always skimp on starting pitching in the draft and load up on hitters, then fill in with waiver wire gems all year.

 

 

Today for example, I scooped up the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez off the waiver wire and installed him in my lineup.  In his last outing, he had an ERA of 24 and a WHIP of 4.  Lasted 3 innings.  He has 6 quality starts on the season.  So he has a lot of quality starts and effectively got skipped in the rotation so he is rested.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Get lucky
 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Today for example, I scooped up the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez off the waiver wire and installed him in my lineup.  In his last outing, he had an ERA of 24 and a WHIP of 4.  Lasted 3 innings.  He has 6 quality starts on the season.  So he has a lot of quality starts and effectively got skipped in the rotation so he is rested.

Going out on a limb there with Martinez facing the Pirates...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A guy with six quality starts so far shouldn’t be on the WW. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, posty said:

Going out on a limb there with Martinez facing the Pirates...

I find that opponent actually does not matter, unless its a good Yankees team playing in Yankee Stadium.  It seems to blow up there quite a bit, and I suspect players are intimidated by the mystique.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JustinCharge said:

I find that opponent actually does not matter, unless its a good Yankees team playing in Yankee Stadium.  It seems to blow up there quite a bit, and I suspect players are intimidated by the mystique.

Maybe old Yankee stadium, but there is no mystique in the new one...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, posty said:

Maybe old Yankee stadium, but there is no mystique in the new one...

Look everyone!! The blind squirrel found the nut! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

A guy with six quality starts so far shouldn’t be on the WW. 

 

There's a lot of quality starts out there.  Pitching is doing well in 2021.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, posty said:

Maybe old Yankee stadium, but there is no mystique in the new one...

I've been running this system for years and its definitely still there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:lol: at HT's comment...  Thanks for quoting JC...

I guess we all should be "running to the wire" to pickup Mike Foltynewicz then since he has six quality starts...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like we should invite you two into the Geek Homers league next season...  We do need two new cellar dwellers, er, owners, into the mix...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, posty said:

:lol: at HT's comment...  Thanks for quoting JC...

I guess we all should be "running to the wire" to pickup Mike Foltynewicz then since he has six quality starts...

Folty is not really an established major leaguer at this point in his career.  He got outright cut last year.  He signed with the Rangers for 1 year at basically the minimum.  He is 1-7 and has been rocked a LOT.  So he actually is not on my list of pickups.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Folty is not really an established major leaguer at this point in his career.  He got outright cut last year.  He signed with the Rangers for 1 year at basically the minimum.  He is 1-7 and has been rocked a LOT.  So he actually is not on my list of pickups.

But HT said that six QS should not be on the wire (according to what you quoted)...  At least you have some sense in you...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, posty said:

Going out on a limb there with Martinez facing the Pirates...

Yeah, his last start vs the Pirates earlier this year, he pitched 8 shutout innings.  It's his only shutout outing this season... the only one he finished the 8th inning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, posty said:

:lol: at HT's comment...  Thanks for quoting JC...

I guess we all should be "running to the wire" to pickup Mike Foltynewicz then since he has six quality starts...

Actually, JC's assertion does apply to Foltneywicz.  In his start prior to his start last night, Folty went 5 innings giving up 4 ER, so an ERA over 7 and a WHIP of 1.6.  That isn't too good of a game.  Last night, Folty went 6 innings and gave up 2 runs striking out 5 and a whip of 1.  Now, he didn't get a decision, but if you picked up a guy on waivers and gave you 6 innings with 5 k's, and ERA of 3 and 1.0 WHIP, I don't think you'd be all that upset.

I play in a points league, and Foltynewicz would've gotten 16 points for his start in our league.  In my league, 15 teams... start 7 starters, that would put him at 50th among started pitchers.  Not bad for a waiver wire pick up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trevor Bauer is a stud since June 4.  Wewww lad

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

I always skimp on starting pitching in the draft and load up on hitters, then fill in with waiver wire gems all year.

I always take the same approach but find that all of the effing hitters I 'load-up on' are also hit-and-miss and while I keep them rostered all of the break-out hitters are scooped-up by the teams that skimped on hitting.

I never thought about your take on the last-week's-bum SP theory but will check it out. :cheers:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any advice for guys whose teams are stocked mostly with Orioles?  🤔

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

I scooped up the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez off the waiver wire and installed him in my lineup.  In his last outing, he had an ERA of 24 and a WHIP of 4.  Lasted 3 innings.  He has 6 quality starts on the season.  So he has a lot of quality starts and effectively got skipped in the rotation so he is rested.

Update?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, posty said:

Update?

MLB.com down? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, avoiding injuries said:

Not a good night with a 9+ era. 

yup as I say it works extremely well but not perfect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, avoiding injuries said:

Not a good night with a 9+ era. 

Posty just could have said that. Instead he just wanted to be a dik as usual. He brings nothing but loves to point fingers at people who do. Useless. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just checked my waiver wire at the top 25 pitchers and looked for back-to-back awful starts it actually happened something like 5 out of 27 times. This is counting Carlos Martinez tonite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are a lot of candidates for tomorrow:

Jake Arrieta:  12.00 ERA / 2.00 WHIP - he's actually not really a reliable starter at this point.  He gets rocked almost every time out.  Pass.
Corbin Martin: 9.82 ERA / 2.73 WHIP - he's not an established starter, looks like he just came up from the minors, getting shelled every outing. Pass.
Wily Peralta: 9.00 ERA / 1.80 WHIP - he converted from relieving duties in his last outing.  Not an established starter.  Pass.
Matt Harvey: 8.31 ERA / 2.54 WHIP - he's getting mauled every time out.  Pass.
 

No starting pitching to pick up tonite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×