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wolves111

6/24: Your First Three Picks.

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So I thought it would be interesting to record some "ideal" picks 1,2,3 to start a ppr snake style. Our beloved Axelf has mentioned (more like anointed) Henry, Hopkins,  Mahomes in that order. Now that is based on picking third in a ten team league, as in my case, and it's hard to argue with it. As we all know the draft is like a war. It's usually won or lost before it starts. If you have a group of players already slotted in each round it's good to go.

I'm picking 3rd so assuming CMC and Cooks then it's Henry or Kamara. I took Kamara one time in his brief career and of course he crapped the bed. Henry has 682 carries and  a shot glass worth worth of recs last two years. I'll roll with Henry, Metcalf. Jefferson. I'll wait on Herbert in rd 6.

Any better options I'm missing?

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I would just caution against being TOO set in stone going into the draft.  What if Mixon falls to you in the second, like he did for me, and you start RB/RB instead of RB/WR?  What if Jefferson goes in the 2nd?

You can probably write Henry's name down in ink, but after that, you have to have a little flexibility to account for the changing circumstances within the draft.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I would just caution against being TOO set in stone going into the draft.  What if Mixon falls to you in the second, like he did for me, and you start RB/RB instead of RB/WR?  What if Jefferson goes in the 2nd?

You can probably write Henry's name down in ink, but after that, you have to have a little flexibility to account for the changing circumstances within the draft.

Yeah I alluded to that but didn't elaborate because I felt it was elementary. I guess it's rule #2 from my Journalism major. Better to assume than insult. 

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You know I thought about embracing the WR are the new Bell Cows trend and taking T. Hill, D J Metcalf, Justin Jefferson. But I didn't want your head to explode.

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1 minute ago, wolves111 said:

You know I thought about embracing the WR are the new Bell Cows trend and taking T. Hill, D J Metcalf, Justin Jefferson. But I didn't want your head to explode.

From the #3 slot, that would be ludicrous, but I did go Hill, Adams and Mahomes in one from the #9 slot.  Of course, that was back when you could still get Chris Carson in the 4th and Mike Davis in the late 5th--and I still nabbed Golladay at 6.2!

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Yeah Carson seems like he's been around 10 years. Keep waiting for him to break down but he is resilient. Rd three way to rich. Davis? idk,,,there's always a RB  in Atlanta that disappoints so he's in the right place.

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1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah Carson seems like he's been around 10 years. Keep waiting for him to break down but he is resilient. Rd three way to rich. Davis? idk,,,there's always a RB  in Atlanta that disappoints so he's in the right place.

You do realize that Mike Davis' new head coach was previously Derrick Henry's offensive coordinator, right?

Carson has axually only played four seasons--but he hasn't played a full 16 games yet.  He only made it 4 games in his first season, but is averaging right around 14 for the past three years.

But when he's healthy, he has a career ypc of 4.6, he has little to no competition for carries, and he's unquestionably the goalline back for a powerful offense.  He also catches 40 balls a year, but Pete Carroll says they want to run the ball more this year, so that's probly good too.

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Hey, you don't have to come up with reasons NOT to draft Davis--people already aren't drafting him--that's what makes him such a great value.

But like I said, the days of getting him in the 5th-6th rounds are coming to a close.  People are cluing in.  His ADP at RTSports is up to 50.8 now, and the last BBC I did, Davis was picked at the 4.10/5.1 turn.

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I guess I have to go Henry in the first, but I'd consider Barkley.  Assuming 12 teams

Round 2 I'm targeting Diggs, Hopkins, Adams, Metcalf, or Justin Jefferson if I'm in a pinch.

Round 3 I'm praying Jefferson falls, but otherwise I'm probably looking at Najee or Josh Jacobs.

All based on ff calculator adps.

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40 minutes ago, nobody said:

I guess I have to go Henry in the first, but I'd consider Barkley.  Assuming 12 teams

Round 2 I'm targeting Diggs, Hopkins, Adams, Metcalf, or Justin Jefferson if I'm in a pinch.

Round 3 I'm praying Jefferson falls, but otherwise I'm probably looking at Najee or Josh Jacobs.

All based on ff calculator adps.

Yeah, they lag way behind because of the number of drafts that go off with mostly computer drafters.

From having BEEN in numerous real money drafts already, I can tell you that if you have the #3 pick in a 12 team league, you have no chance at Diggs, Hopkins or Adams in the 2nd.  You'd be pushing it to get Diggs or Adams in a 10-teamer.  Metcalf, Ridley, Jefferson or AJ Brown--you should get to pick from a couple/three of those.

I highly doubt Jefferson makes it past the 2nd turn, but you'd have an outside shot at him in the third--Jacobs would almost certainly be there, but I don't know why you would want him over Carson.  Najee would be gone by your second round pick, so he's out completely.  If you wanted to go WR, you're probly looking at Michael Thomas.

I'd take Mahomes, if he's still on the board.

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Wow Najee is going in the mid 2nd?  Jesus

I guess on volume, but he's probably going to average like 3.4 with that line.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, nobody said:

Wow Najee is going in the mid 2nd?  Jesus

I guess on volume, but he's probably going to average like 3.4 with that line.

ADP in RTSports money leagues right now is Pick #14.1.  Not even the "mid" second in 12 team leagues.

He's crept ahead of Mixon, even (15.8).  Stuff like that--and the bonehead pick of CEH at 2.5--is what allowed me to secure Henry and Mixon from the 3-slot in a 10-teamer the other day.

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I can't get excited about Mixon. I realize injuries derailed his season last year but each year he's hyped as a three down back that could be top five. Not seeing it.

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4 hours ago, wolves111 said:

I can't get excited about Mixon. I realize injuries derailed his season last year but each year he's hyped as a three down back that could be top five. Not seeing it.

Yeah, there are good players out there that I just can't get excited about either.  It's ok, we don't have to own EVERY good player.

The two things holding Mixon back have been injuries and a terrible O-line.

Last year, with that crappy O-line (but a new QB) Mixon was on a 6-game pace to set career highs in almost every category--317 rushing attempts, 56 receptions, 1,509 scrimmage yards and 11 TDs--which would have made him the RB4 last year behind Henry, Cook and Kamara.  They didn't address the O-line much, but they did hire a new O-line COACH, maybe that will help.

I found it amusing this morning when I saw a Football Guys article titled "24 Overrated Running Backs."  Like really?  Out of 32 teams, there are 24 overrated RBs?  lol

But the nice thing about the article is that among the 8 that weren't considered overrated were all of Axe Elf's darlings--Henry, Mixon, Carson and Davis.

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Ok. Would you spend a #2 pick on him? Would you center your draft with him in mind? He's a decent #3 risk. Rather have Carson.

And Robinson two rds later.

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13 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Ok. Would you spend a #2 pick on him? Would you center your draft with him in mind? He's a decent #3 risk. Rather have Carson.

I usually don't center my draft around anyone in a snake draft, because too much can happen during the draft to make you alter your strategy.

But I have picked Mixon in the 2nd five times; twice after Adams from the 10 slot, once after Hill from the 9 slot, once after Zeke from the 5 slot, and most recently from the 3 slot after Henry.  So, yeah, I would, comfortably.

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9 hours ago, wolves111 said:

I can't get excited about Mixon. I realize injuries derailed his season last year but each year he's hyped as a three down back that could be top five. Not seeing it.

I get it.

and I have generally not recommended him in the past.  but thats more because good RB's on crappy teams rarely put up great numbers.  The game script usually limits them.

but this year's version of his team may be good enough to change that (at least to some degree)

I'm predicting a better year from him.  probably a career best.

in all honesty, the better year to own him (barring injury) is likely next year.   but this year, hes a legit RB1

Last year on a fantasy points per game played, Mixon was ranked #12.   but the sample size was small due to his injury.

but he was a fringe RB1 last year (when healthy) 

That being said, his value is a bit more variable than most RB's of his calibre.  you may have to get him early, or you may be able to wait depending on your league.

but I dont think hes a bad guy to have on your team next year..   Not bad at all.

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3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I usually don't center my draft around anyone in a snake draft, because too much can happen during the draft to make you alter your strategy.

But I have picked Mixon in the 2nd five times; twice after Adams from the 10 slot, once after Hill from the 9 slot, once after Zeke from the 5 slot, and most recently from the 3 slot after Henry.  So, yeah, I would, comfortably.

so mostly second round picks?

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12 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

so mostly second round picks?

All second round picks.  I've never seen Mixon go in any other round.

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10 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

All second round picks.  I've never seen Mixon go in any other round.

Well, that fits with where I value him.

If you draft early in round 1 and he falls to you in round 2, thats likely your guy.  In that scenario, you are likely going RB-RB in your first 2 picks.

but hes more likely to go the middle of round 2.   I dont mind taking him there.   I just dont think I take him in round 1.   if drafting early in round 2 it really depends who is on the board for me and who I've already taken.  but hes a decent candidate at that point.

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Never been a big fan of Mixon, but I do like him this season. 

Biggest concern is his durability 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Never been a big fan of Mixon, but I do like him this season. 

Biggest concern is his durability 

That is an issue for the majority of RB's.  It  is a position that has a lot of injuries.   

it is always prudent to  look  at injury risk for all players.  and lots seem to  like to ignore it and  then pay the price.

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

That is an issue for the majority of RB's.  It  is a position that has a lot of injuries.   

it is always prudent to  look  at injury risk for all players.  and lots seem to  like to ignore it and  then pay the price.

Injuries is a concern to all players no matter the position, but sometime despite a players inability to stay healthy one must be able to reduce a players value because of that but not to lose site of that players ability to perform, I see some  not listing mr Mccaffery as their first player taken of the board and I’m wondering if that’s due to his injuries last season? As for me if I have the very first pick in my non ppr 14 team league and I hope I don’t, but if I do, Mccaffery would be the first player taken of the board in my league. 

Thanks for your reply Ray  

 

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