Have WR's Replaced RB's as Must Haves?

[weepaws 2,459]

33 minutes ago, DrG said:

WP, so, you’ve never tried ‘Zero RB?’

But I agree with you that late 1st rd makes total sense especially if you are looking at Tier 1 wrs vs Tier 2 rbs. And those of us who took Davante Adams last year in the 1st rd were pretty happy w the results.

Nope don’t like the move of going zero WRs or zero Rbs. 

I’ve drafted with owners that do, and I don’t  see a lot of good results, now I’m sure many of had success using that style of drafting  

 

[Ray_T 589]

On 7/5/2021 at 12:01 AM, DrG said:

I’m not saying zero rb can’t work, just that I don’t think it works very often.   
 

Honestly, a person should rarely go into a draft thinking that they will go zero RB.

the strategy can work but things in the draft need to fall a certain way for it to happen.

You dont go zero RB if you are drafting from the #1, #2, or # 3 slot.   arguably you wouldnt  do it if you draft in the first 5 or 6 slots.

I won with it once a long time ago.  It wasnt even my plan to go zero RB, but the draft fell in a way that it worked out.

I drafted late.  I think 10th in a 12 team draft. (if my memory is correct)

all the picks at the beginnning were RB prior to my pick.   so I grabbed the top WR on the board then a few picks later after the turn  I grabbed another top WR which gave me 2 of the top 3 WR on the board (in my opinion).   This actually started a run on WR.   when it got back to me in round 3 I grabbed the Best TE on the board and interestingly enough, the RB I thought was the best RB on the board at the end of round 2 was still on the board in round 4 so I took him at that point and then grabbed Donovan McNabb (arguably one of the best dual threat QB's at the time) a round later and was able to pickup some Quality RB's after that one of which had a nice bounceback year after a bad year the season before.

 

It can happen, but I dont recommend doing it unless the draft falls in a way that makes it work.

I got a bit lucky in the way it turned out

But the bottom line, is you take what the draft gives you.   This is especially true if drafting late.

if drafting in the #10, 11, or 12 slot, the picks ahead of you can force you to change your strategy.   There is no point going zero RB if a bunch of WR and/or QB's go early in round 1.  in that scenario it shouldnt work unless you get REALLY lucky because the zero RB strategy revolves around getting an advantage at a different position other than RB.

so you need to get 2 top players at their position at WR, TE, or QB to give you an advantage at that position to make up for the advantage people who drafted an early RB get on you.

so if the dropoff at RB has happened, the top 8 or 9 RB's  are off the board and you have about 6 or 7 RB's of similar quality on the board, why wouldnt you wait a round and grab the top WR on the board if that player gives you an advantage at that position?

The best RB at this point in the draft just locks in the advantage the other guys established by picking an early RB.

but you need to know where the dropoffs happen at each position.  thats why fantasy experts list tiers for your players.   

If there is only 1 player left in the tier you are looking at and the next tier only has 2 players in it.  and your next pick is (lets say 12-15 spots later) you probably are getting a player 2 tiers  down when you next pick if you pass on that player.  This is a scenario where you probably should pick that player.

there are always exceptions to this rule.   This is where making a good list makes sense.  You can rank your players with this in mind.

 

 

 

[weepaws 2,459]

I think there are 5 Rbs I like as a first round pick, if I have the sixth pick or later in a ppr I’m taking Hill. 

[Ray_T 589]

13 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think there are 5 Rbs I like as a first round pick, if I have the sixth pick or later in a ppr I’m taking Hill. 

the bottom line is you need to know where it is that you draw the line on this.

Thats where studying where the drops in production actually are will actually help with this type of thing.

clearly you know where YOU want to make that break.  I'm assuming you are going on the assumption of PPR rules given where you are placing that break point.

From what I can tell, in PPR that break point should come earlier in round 1 than in standard scoring.

but I definitely agree that there is a point in the first round (depending on your scoring system) where it no longer makes sense to grab a RB (assuming of course that the draft goes as predicted)

if you are drafting at 6 and for some reason Cook or Henry are still on the board (just using these two as examples there are others) you should still take the RB. (in my opinion)

I know it should never happen, but I've seen some drafts unfold in ways that have totally surprised me in the past so Never say never.

[tanatastic 2,061]

No for the simple reason being that in an emergency you can still find waiver wire fill in WRs that go off for a big game any given week and you can’t do that with RBs nearly as easy. 

[Ray_T 589]

31 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

No for the simple reason being that in an emergency you can still find waiver wire fill in WRs that go off for a big game any given week and you can’t do that with RBs nearly as easy. 

I dont disagree.

and RB's tend to get injured more than WR too

[tanatastic 2,061]

5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

and RB's tend to get injured more than WR too

This is a big factor as well for sure. While RBs are basically throwing darts blindfolded (most of the 1st rounders bust), you still need to take that risk because otherwise you risk falling behind the teams that did pick guys who hit and stayed healthy. You need to be one of the teams that got an early RB that met expectations, stayed healthy and also found waiver gems.

[Ray_T 589]

Just now, tanatastic said:

This is a big factor as well for sure. While RBs are basically throwing darts blindfolded (most of the 1st rounders bust), you still need to take that risk because otherwise you risk falling behind the teams that did pick guys who hit and stayed healthy. You need to be one of the teams that got an early RB that met expectations, stayed healthy and also found waiver gems.

True. 

if you have a shot at the top tier RB's in round 1 you take your shot.

Zero RB strategy is for people drafting later in the draft.  This is a strategy designed for people who cannot get a top RB.   So if you are drafting in the #1, #2, or #3 Slot your pick is likely obvious.  This isnt a draft slot you go zero RB on.

 

[weepaws 2,459]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

the bottom line is you need to know where it is that you draw the line on this.

Thats where studying where the drops in production actually are will actually help with this type of thing.

clearly you know where YOU want to make that break.  I'm assuming you are going on the assumption of PPR rules given where you are placing that break point.

From what I can tell, in PPR that break point should come earlier in round 1 than in standard scoring.

but I definitely agree that there is a point in the first round (depending on your scoring system) where it no longer makes sense to grab a RB (assuming of course that the draft goes as predicted)

if you are drafting at 6 and for some reason Cook or Henry are still on the board (just using these two as examples there are others) you should still take the RB. (in my opinion)

I know it should never happen, but I've seen some drafts unfold in ways that have totally surprised me in the past so Never say never.

Hey if I’m picking 6th And Mccaffery or Cook or any of those other five Rbs fall into my lap I’ll be taking that rb. 

Great point. 

Not likely that would happen, so in a ten team ppr, and that is indeed the size of the OP league, I’m taking the best Wr T Hill at 6 or later, and I’m still going to get a top rb in return in the second in a 10 team league. 

Plus this season I see a few extra bonus Rbs when it comes to ppr leagues , Edmonds and Drake and Hunt, all three could be top 12 ppr Rbs this season who have very manageable ADP I’m a ppr league , one thing about ppr leagues I found out when I was in them,  it’s a little bit easier to draft Rbs later into the draft. You won’t get a stud but a good flex or even at times rb2 some weekends  

I think this season if I was in a ppr I would take Hill first round if the top five ppr Rbs where drafted already. 

 

[DrG 94]

I won’t ‘never say never’ but if drafting at the back end and I take a WR first I am probably going to draft an rb next just to make sure 1) there’s some balance to my starting position. and 2) that I lose my draft discipline because I don’t have any RBs. Rounds 3-6 sure seem to have better value at WR than RB

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, DrG said:

Rounds 3-6 sure seem to have better value at WR than RB

I could live with Carson and Davis at RB if I started Hill/Adams/Mahomes...  and probly still tack on Thielen or Aiyuk as a WR3/Flex.

[weepaws 2,459]

3 hours ago, DrG said:

I won’t ‘never say never’ but if drafting at the back end and I take a WR first I am probably going to draft an rb next just to make sure 1) there’s some balance to my starting position. and 2) that I lose my draft discipline because I don’t have any RBs. Rounds 3-6 sure seem to have better value at WR than RB

Ive done some ppr mocks , just for a change from non ppr , and I’ve taken T Hill when I’ve drafted in the sixth round or later, and I can usually draft Carson in the second and another top wr in the third and then Davis or Montgomery in the fourth.  

Works out pretty good in a ppr league. 

[DrG 94]

both Montgomery and Davis may see their adp rise. Yes possible to get rb value later but you hope those value picks are there or you’ve got a big bench where you can stash some backup RBs. So I’ll call it the 1 rb theory - get 1 early then let the talent come to you

[weepaws 2,459]

I’m not so sure how much I’m trusting Barkely right now, so in a ppr league I would comfortably take Hill if the top four Rbs are gone. 

 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

in 2016 the top 4 picks were all WR. I knew there was a weird season where it was all WRs. 

 

Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, OBJ, and Deandre Hopkins were ranked above every RB that year by almost every fantasy outlet. 

[TimHauck 1,799]

On 7/9/2021 at 2:45 PM, tanatastic said:

No for the simple reason being that in an emergency you can still find waiver wire fill in WRs that go off for a big game any given week and you can’t do that with RBs nearly as easy. 

Yeah, this seems to be proven by that chart in the yahoo article posted earlier.  The WR curve comes back up at the end, with WR’s with ADP’s of 140+ (I assume this includes guys who were WW pickups) have higher points than guys with ADP’s of  about 85, IMO meaning it’s a lot easier to find good WR’s at the end of the draft or on the WW.

Meanwhile the RB curve continues to go down.  This doesn’t mean you can’t find good RB’s in the mid to late rounds because there are a lot of guys in the data that don’t but well, but if you load up on them you’ll probably get one or two that hit.  I think the hardest part can be not dropping them before they become valuable.