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makindollaz

Keeper advice needed…

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12 team PPR league where we keep 7.  Locked in to keeping Ekeler, Ridley, Jacobs, Aiyuk, Beckham and probably Lamar J.  For the last spot considering Andrews, Claypool, or James Robinson.  Also have the #5 pick in the draft so assuming Harris, Chase & Etienne are gone, probably Pitts or D. Smith.

Andrews has the highest ADP, and TE’s are scarce, but really like Pitts.  On the other hand Claypool’s not a bad WR4/FLX option, but keeping Robinson means I’m probably done at RB unless I take a rookie flyer later in the draft.

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I would lean towards keeping the Robinson.

If you can knock out RBs before the draft, that's good IMO. Gives you more flexibility.

The RBs people drop will be garbage, and you're probably not gonna get one of the top rookie RBs. Plus, they're the best position to take late round fliers on for a rookie.

The WR pool will probably be better for the draft.

Andrews is a good TE, but he's not on a level like Kelce or one of the very top guys. He's very TD dependent. If you can draft Pitts, that's a good trade off.

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28 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I would lean towards keeping the Robinson.

If you can knock out RBs before the draft, that's good IMO. Gives you more flexibility.

The RBs people drop will be garbage, and you're probably not gonna get one of the top rookie RBs. Plus, they're the best position to take late round fliers on for a rookie.

The WR pool will probably be better for the draft.

Andrews is a good TE, but he's not on a level like Kelce or one of the very top guys. He's very TD dependent. If you can draft Pitts, that's a good trade off.

That’s the direction I’m leaning, even though his ADP is well below Andrews.  I’ve tried packaging Robinson with both Claypool and Andrews to get a higher-end RB, but no takers yet.

J. Williams is only rookie RB I’d consider at #5 (assuming Harris & Etienne are gone), but that’s a little bit of a reach when I know either Pitts or D. Smith will be there.

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7 hours ago, makindollaz said:

12 team PPR league where we keep 7.  Locked in to keeping Ekeler, Ridley, Jacobs, Aiyuk, Beckham and probably Lamar J.  For the last spot considering Andrews, Claypool, or James Robinson.  Also have the #5 pick in the draft so assuming Harris, Chase & Etienne are gone, probably Pitts or D. Smith.

Andrews has the highest ADP, and TE’s are scarce, but really like Pitts.  On the other hand Claypool’s not a bad WR4/FLX option, but keeping Robinson means I’m probably done at RB unless I take a rookie flyer later in the draft.

Just a question, but who would you rather have in your ppr league , Etienne or Robinson? 

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33 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Just a question, but who would you rather have in your ppr league , Etienne or Robinson? 

Weeks 1-3 probably Robinson.  Week 4 and beyond, Etienne.

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Ok I’m not a big te fan, but you must keep Andrews, hes been a top five te the last two seasons, unless he as an injury he should once again. At #5 your not going to get Pitts. Etienne is right at the border of a fifth pick, but I like J Williams of the Broncos a lot. 

And he will be the Broncos rb 1.  

 

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Ok I’m not a big te fan, but you must keep Andrews, hes been a top five te the last two seasons, unless he as an injury he should once again. At #5 your not going to get Pitts. Etienne is right at the border of a fifth pick, but I like J Williams of the Broncos a lot. 

And he will be the Broncos rb 1.  

 

A couple of things specific to our league makes me think Pitts will be there at 5.  One owner has both Josh A. & Kyler M. at QB, and can’t see him keeping both.  The guy drafting at #3 will need a QB.  The guy drafting at #4 already has Kittle.

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5 hours ago, makindollaz said:

A couple of things specific to our league makes me think Pitts will be there at 5.  One owner has both Josh A. & Kyler M. at QB, and can’t see him keeping both.  The guy drafting at #3 will need a QB.  The guy drafting at #4 already has Kittle.

Changes a lot, if Pitts is available that’s who you should take.  

I was just going off of ADP for rookies.  My second choice would be J Williams. 

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So the guy who's stressed over and over again to never take a tightend before the 10th round is essentially saying take Kyle Pitts in the 8th?

Also, I'd try to trade Beckham/Robinson and keep Claypool.  If I couldn't get a deal done, I'd keep Claypool over Robinson.  I invested in Robinson last year.  He's a decent, but not special runningback.  He got his numbers on pure volume because he was essentially the only RB on the roster.  Get what you can for him now.  Don't forget Carlos Hyde is on this roster too now and reunited with his old college coach.

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I’m not in a keeper league, I’m in a redraft league, if I was in a keeper league and was doing a draft , then yeah I would take a te like Pitts. I think he’s the second best option after Harris in a keeper league and maybe the best pick. Besides be happy for the OP he’s getting Pitts at a bargain. Not my team not my scoring style, and I don’t play in keepers any more. 

In a redraft league I wouldn’t take a te until double digit rounds. 

Thanks. 

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I would keep Beckham over Claypool.  

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Pitts at 5 is a mega reach if you're not protecting Andrews, He also becomes an anchor that you basically have to protect for next season. I wouldn't be so sure Etienne won't be there at 5 considering you might drop James Robinson. 

I would swap Claypool for Aiyuk. I love Aiyuk but he's gonna be alongside Deebo and Kittle and I'm not sold on that offense with Jimmy G or a rookie Trey Lance. I think for this season and going forward Claypool is far more valuable than Aiyuk. Aiyuk did most of his damage with either Kittle or Deebo missing time with injury and Aiyuk himself missed time with injury. If you can sell on Aiyuk, I would. I think he is way over-valued this season.

Claypool played well in week 17 and in his lone playoff game vs Browns he caught 2 TDs. 

In terms of positional value vs upside I would probably keep Andrews over Beckham. OBJ at this point is just name value. There's no reason to expect a huge bounce back season when we know the Browns are gonna run, run, then run some more.

 

Just my opinion.

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9 hours ago, weepaws said:

Changes a lot, if Pitts is available that’s who you should take.  

I was just going off of ADP for rookies.  My second choice would be J Williams. 

I like Williams a lot, but I’m leery of rookie RB’s who don’t have a clear path to #1 after drafting Akers early last year in a re-draft league.  If it was a keeper league I’d be sitting pretty, but in re-draft I was basically out of the playoff race by the time he started producing.  With this being a keeper, maybe the risk is worth it for Williams, but don’t love him at #5 overall.

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2 hours ago, makindollaz said:

I like Williams a lot, but I’m leery of rookie RB’s who don’t have a clear path to #1 after drafting Akers early last year in a re-draft league.  If it was a keeper league I’d be sitting pretty, but in re-draft I was basically out of the playoff race by the time he started producing.  With this being a keeper, maybe the risk is worth it for Williams, but don’t love him at #5 overall.

Being a keeper is the point. N.  

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I think Claypool for this season and going forward is going to be a tough one for me if I was in a keeper league. 

Ben is going to retire probably after this season, and the Steelers with Harris will have a true running game. 

I think with Claypool and DJ and Juju that’s just two footballs short , I would pass.  

I think the Browns let mayfield rip it more often this season and of Beckham does return healthy he’ll post his best season as of yet as a Brown   

 

 

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On 7/11/2021 at 9:29 AM, makindollaz said:

12 team PPR league where we keep 7.  Locked in to keeping Ekeler, Ridley, Jacobs, Aiyuk, Beckham and probably Lamar J.  For the last spot considering Andrews, Claypool, or James Robinson.  Also have the #5 pick in the draft so assuming Harris, Chase & Etienne are gone, probably Pitts or D. Smith.

Andrews has the highest ADP, and TE’s are scarce, but really like Pitts.  On the other hand Claypool’s not a bad WR4/FLX option, but keeping Robinson means I’m probably done at RB unless I take a rookie flyer later in the draft.

Personally, I'd look to trade Beckham.  Maybe package him up with one of the guys you aren't going to keep for an upgrade.  Why?  I don't trust him.  In the last two seasons, he's averaged less than 13 fpg (and played in all 16 in one of them).  The two seasons prior where he averaged over 18, but he missed the last 4 games (or more), in each season.  So he got you to the playoffs and was no help in the playoffs.  Pass.  If you can find someone with only 5 or 6 worthy keepers, try to "overpay" to upgrade.  Something like Beckham and one or two of those other 3 guys and try to upgrade your RB's.  There might be someone who thinks Beckham will be a stud.  There's at least 1 in every league.

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Problem with Beckham is that if your invested in him, you typically value him like a stud even though he hasn't been a stud since 2016, and everyone else in the league values him as a low WR1/high WR2.  

Then when it comes to trading in a keeper league, everyone gets so attached to their guys that they overvalue them.

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6 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I would swap Claypool for Aiyuk.

Aiyuk is likely a top 12-15 WR.

He's a first-round draft pick that the 9ers traded up 6 spots to secure.  He stepped up as a rookie big-time last season, despite having 3 different QBs trying to get him the ball, no preseason, and precious little practice time due to COVID, and even though defenses could key exclusively on him when Deebo and Kittle were sidelined, his 12-game pace over 17 games would net him 85 receptions for 1,169 yards and 10 TDs, which is 262 PPR fantasy points, and would have made him the #10 PPR WR last year--as a rookie.

With any kind of second-year progression and more stability in the offense, Aiyuk should again be near the top 10 as he continues to deliver on his first-round potential.

I just don't want him to look like a moron by dropping a top-tennish WR.

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I would keep Beckham. 

He’s not the stud he once was, and no  one should trade for him like he still his, I think he could be the highest scoring wr the OP currently has. 

 

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24 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Aiyuk is likely a top 12-15 WR.

He's a first-round draft pick that the 9ers traded up 6 spots to secure.  He stepped up as a rookie big-time last season, despite having 3 different QBs trying to get him the ball, no preseason, and precious little practice time due to COVID, and even though defenses could key exclusively on him when Deebo and Kittle were sidelined, his 12-game pace over 17 games would net him 85 receptions for 1,169 yards and 10 TDs, which is 262 PPR fantasy points, and would have made him the #10 PPR WR last year--as a rookie.

With any kind of second-year progression and more stability in the offense, Aiyuk should again be near the top 10 as he continues to deliver on his first-round potential.

I just don't want him to look like a moron by dropping a top-tennish WR.

I value Aiyuk as much as you described.  Ekeler & Ridley are the only guys on my roster I have higher.  I’ve even got him above Lamar or Jacobs.  He’s not going anywhere unless I get a trade offer I can’t refuse.

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I'm with Weepaws. I'd keep TE Andrew's. He'll still put up top 5 TE numbers. You should have a decent shot at Javonte Williams at #5. Forget about Gordon. Williams will have the rb lead job by week 5. If Williams is gone before 5 then jump AL l over D.Smith. He'll be the Beagles top receiver out of the gate.

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OBJ and James Robinson for Robert Woods.  

Then you keep Jacobs, aiyuk, Ekeler, Ridley, Woods, Lamar, and Andrews or Claypool.

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Let me know if the owner of R Woods does that deal, I have a bridge for sale, and I bet I can get that owner to buy it. M

 

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44 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Let me know if the owner of R Woods does that deal, I have a bridge for sale, and I bet I can get that owner to buy it. M

 

Yeah, he won’t take it.  He already has a solid 7 unless someone gets hurt in camp.

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On 7/11/2021 at 8:29 AM, makindollaz said:

12 team PPR league where we keep 7.  Locked in to keeping Ekeler, Ridley, Jacobs, Aiyuk, Beckham and probably Lamar J.  For the last spot considering Andrews, Claypool, or James Robinson.

I don't think I'd keep the QB or the TE, since both positions are pretty easily replaced in the draft.  The Ravens seem to be moving away from having Jackson run the ball all the time, so his advantage in that respect is dwindling.  The Ravens also seem to be acquiring better legitimate WRs, so Andrews may not be the red zone target he once was, either.  Andrews already drops an uncomfortable number of balls (he caught 18 of 34 targets in his last four games, including the playoffs, and had a season catch rate of 65.9%--which is about 64th among all TEs in 2020.  Andrews had 4 TDs in his first four games last year--and 3 in the remaining 12 weeks.

So then you get to keep a 5th-rd RB in Robinson and a 7th-rd WR in Claypool, and you can pick up Daniel Jones and C.J. Uzomah in the draft to cover QB and TE.

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I would disagree, Jackson is a top ten Qb and will continue to be one, I do agree that he ravens are trying to upgrade their WRs , and if successful that could help not hurt Andrews. 

OP my first choice is Andrews and J Williams. 

Good luck with your decision. 

Thanks 

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I don't think I'd keep the QB or the TE, since both positions are pretty easily replaced in the draft.  The Ravens seem to be moving away from having Jackson run the ball all the time, so his advantage in that respect is dwindling.  The Ravens also seem to be acquiring better legitimate WRs, so Andrews may not be the red zone target he once was, either.  Andrews already drops an uncomfortable number of balls (he caught 18 of 34 targets in his last four games, including the playoffs, and had a season catch rate of 65.9%--which is about 64th among all TEs in 2020.  Andrews had 4 TDs in his first four games last year--and 3 in the remaining 12 weeks.

So then you get to keep a 5th-rd RB in Robinson and a 7th-rd WR in Claypool, and you can pick up Daniel Jones and C.J. Uzomah in the draft to cover QB and TE.

That low catch rate isn't solely from drops.  It's from poor accuracy.  I know it's taboo to say anything bad about Lamar Jackson, but his accuracy isn't great. 

According to pro-football-reference, Andrews only dropped 5 balls all last year (88 targets).  Ceedee Lamb dropped 8 (111 targets).  Jerry Jeudy 9 (113 targets).  Both with a higher percentage of drops than Andrews.

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4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Let me know if the owner of R Woods does that deal, I have a bridge for sale, and I bet I can get that owner to buy it. M

 

From a pure draft value perspective you're trading a 6th and a 4th for a 4th, and OBJ has name value.  Trade for Kupp then or MIke Davis or Thielen then since all of those guys are right around James Robinson's value by themselves.

Send them this blurb along with the trade offer...

Quote

despite not being a player selected by new head coach Urban Meyer, he had this to say about the second-year back, "James Robinson is one of my favorite guys. I can't name a harder worker right now on our team, and that started in January all the way through June now. So, I love that guy." 

 

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9 minutes ago, nobody said:

That low catch rate isn't solely from drops.  It's from poor accuracy.  I know it's taboo to say anything bad about Lamar Jackson, but his accuracy isn't great.

Absolutely, but that doesn't make the case for Andrews any better, does it?

10 minutes ago, nobody said:

Ceedee Lamb dropped 8 (111 targets).  Jerry Jeudy 9 (113 targets).  Both with a higher percentage of drops than Andrews.

And both with worse QBs than Jackson.

Lamb should do better with a QB that can get the ball into his general vicinity--he was the WR11 (PPR) for the five weeks that Dak played at the beginning of last season (with no preseason and little practice).

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I just keep hearing people say Mark Andrews drops the ball a lot, so I went to look up his stats expecting to see he dropped 18 passes or something and was surprised to see he only had 5 drops.  Then I realized it was the "No-One-is-allowed-to-Criticize-Lamar-Jackson" phenomenon popping up again.

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8 minutes ago, nobody said:

I just keep hearing people say Mark Andrews drops the ball a lot, so I went to look up his stats expecting to see he dropped 18 passes or something and was surprised to see he only had 5 drops.  Then I realized it was the "No-One-is-allowed-to-Criticize-Lamar-Jackson" phenomenon popping up again.

Yeah, "drops" are defined differently from catch rates.

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Yeah you said

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Andrews already drops an uncomfortable number of balls (he caught 18 of 34 targets in his last four games, including the playoffs, and had a season catch rate of 65.9%--which is about 64th among all TEs in 2020. 

So you said he drops balls and then linked that thought - purposefully or not - to his catch rate.   I wanted to make sure innocent bystanders didn't mistake that as meaning he dropped some crazy amount of passes since that seems to be a popular narrative. 

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27 minutes ago, nobody said:

From a pure draft value perspective you're trading a 6th and a 4th for a 4th, and OBJ has name value.  Trade for Kupp then or MIke Davis or Thielen then since all of those guys are right around James Robinson's value by themselves.

Send them this blurb along with the trade offer...

 

The OP said the Woods owner isn’t interested, so all that coach talk doesn’t mean a thing to that owner, but thanks for posting about a coach talking positive things about a player from January- June. , that’s never taken place before.  

 

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28 minutes ago, nobody said:

So you said he drops balls and then linked that thought - purposefully or not - to his catch rate.   I wanted to make sure innocent bystanders didn't mistake that as meaning he dropped some crazy amount of passes since that seems to be a popular narrative. 

I guess I din't feel the need to distinguish the two when the point remains the same--if the ball isn't in Andrews' hands at the end of a play on which he was targeted, that's bad.  And there are a lot of TEs with better results.

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On 7/12/2021 at 12:35 PM, AxeElf said:

Aiyuk is likely a top 12-15 WR.

He's a first-round draft pick that the 9ers traded up 6 spots to secure.  He stepped up as a rookie big-time last season, despite having 3 different QBs trying to get him the ball, no preseason, and precious little practice time due to COVID, and even though defenses could key exclusively on him when Deebo and Kittle were sidelined, his 12-game pace over 17 games would net him 85 receptions for 1,169 yards and 10 TDs, which is 262 PPR fantasy points, and would have made him the #10 PPR WR last year--as a rookie.

With any kind of second-year progression and more stability in the offense, Aiyuk should again be near the top 10 as he continues to deliver on his first-round potential.

I just don't want him to look like a moron by dropping a top-tennish WR.

But why on earth would you extrapolate his numbers like that? Who the defense chooses to "key" on is irrelevant to my point. A healthy Kittle and Deebo potentially makes him the 3rd option in the passing game and I don't think Jimmy G or Lance have the potential to make 3 fantasy worthy receivers next season. 

 

What if we took Claypool's week 17 and lone playoff game and extrapolate that over a full season? How many points? 

 

If we're talking talent alone, I prefer Aiyuk. But in terms of fantasy value its not that simple. I think Claypool has the potential to be the top dawg in the Pittsburgh passing attack which makes his potenital ceiling higher IMO. 

 

FFtoday has Aiyuk ranked 36th for this upcoming season so you putting him at top 15 is very bold. Not saying its impossible but I certainly wont reach like that. Unless you think Deebo has no role and Aiyuk has already unseated him as the 2nd option.

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43 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

But why on earth would you extrapolate his numbers like that?

To demonstrate what his season stats would be if he had played 17 games instead of 12.

44 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Who the defense chooses to "key" on is irrelevant to my point.

Perhaps, but it's pretty relevant to mine, and I care more about mine.

45 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

A healthy Kittle and Deebo potentially makes him the 3rd option in the passing game and I don't think Jimmy G or Lance have the potential to make 3 fantasy worthy receivers next season. 

Aiyuk is the #1 option.

46 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

FFtoday has Aiyuk ranked 36th for this upcoming season so you putting him at top 15 is very bold.

I suppose the rational seems quite bold to the irrational.  36th, sheesh...  That's what you get for listening to FF sites instead of Axe Elf.

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Aiyuk had the 12 best avg in non ppr last season for WRs , and if Jimmy G and again can  if he can stay healthy that’s an upgrade at Qb, and if he doesn’t the rookie would be an upgrade, but I do think the return of Kittle will take Targets from Aiyuk and so will D Samuel, plus I think the Niners coach would love to just run the ball and win with def every game. 

So Aiyuk won’t be 12 in avg non ppr this upcoming season , which would make him a low wr1 based on avg , but I think he’ll easly be a wr3 and a high wr3 to boot with low wr2 potential. 

Amen 

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On 7/14/2021 at 11:01 PM, AxeElf said:

To demonstrate what his season stats would be if he had played 17 games instead of 12.

Perhaps, but it's pretty relevant to mine, and I care more about mine.

Aiyuk is the #1 option.

I suppose the rational seems quite bold to the irrational.  36th, sheesh...  That's what you get for listening to FF sites instead of Axe Elf.

Extrapolating numbers is always risky business, especially with so many variables involved. In Aiyuk’s case it’s consistent QB play along with 2 legitimate threats to his targets.

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4 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

rank these wr

Claypool, Sutton, Cooks

You already did.  

 

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