Rob Gronkowski

[DrG 94]

He’s an interesting one for me to try and peg for 2021. Am seeing him as a somewhat touchdown dependent mid TE1.

 

[weepaws 2,451]

Late double digit draft pick. 

[RedzoneMonster 102]

He's a TE I'd be happy to get if I'm waiting until rd 10 or later this year for TE.  Once you get past the top 5-6 TEs its literally a crap shoot anyway.  I'm not even sure some of the "top 6 TEs" are that safe.  Im 99% sure Im just going to wait until rd 10+ and just pick one of Gronk, Irv Smith, J. Smith, Jarwin, etc.  Is there really any difference bt all those guys chances?

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

I'd avoid him.  Tampa does not run a lot of 2 TE sets.  Brady didn't change that.  In 2019, Tampa ran 11 personnel with 3 WR 64% of the time, last year it was 63%.  In 2019, they ran 12 personnel 23%, and last year 22%.  Tampa ran plays with 2 or more TE's in 2019 28.8% of the time and 30.8% last year.  So the Bucs player groupings didn't really change from 2019 to 2020 with Brady being there.  What Brady changed was formations and motions.  Leftwich and Arians are still going to throw out 11 personnel / 3 WR sets about two-thirds of the time.

Normally that's not an issue, but when you have 3 TE's, that's a big obstacle.  OJ is going to get his playing time/snaps/targets.  He's in the last year of his deal.  I believe the Bucs want to see him play a full season and see what he can do... which could lead to an extension (boy I hope not).  They're going to put him out there until he gets hurt.  Last year in the first 4 games, Gronk did see a bigger snap share than Howard did... about 30% more.  But, in those 4 games, Howard had 19 targets and Gronk had 14.

Gronk won't have any real value until Howard get's hurt.... so week 8?  9?  Where do you draft a guy when you can assume he's very volatile until someone else gets hurt?  I don't know, you tell me.

[DrG 94]

I grabbed Gronk on the wire last year in dynasty. He presumably took some time to get in shape. I guess I should say he’s a back end TE w mid upside when Howard inevitably disappoints

[weepaws 2,451]

2 hours ago, RedzoneMonster said:

He's a TE I'd be happy to get if I'm waiting until rd 10 or later this year for TE.  Once you get past the top 5-6 TEs its literally a crap shoot anyway.  I'm not even sure some of the "top 6 TEs" are that safe.  Im 99% sure Im just going to wait until rd 10+ and just pick one of Gronk, Irv Smith, J. Smith, Jarwin, etc.  Is there really any difference bt all those guys chances?

Winner. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

38 minutes ago, DrG said:

I grabbed Gronk on the wire last year in dynasty. He presumably took some time to get in shape. I guess I should say he’s a back end TE w mid upside when Howard inevitably disappoints

If you have him in a dynasty, that's fine.  Nothing wrong with keeping him stashed.  To note, I don't think Howard will disappoint in the sense that he won't be good.  When he's been on the field, he's been very productive.  Part of his occasional lack of numbers has been due to the fact that he was needed to help block a lot.  It wasn't until the 2019 season where the Bucs finally had a solid OLine.  If he stays healthy all year, I have no doubt in my mind that he'll have the best numbers of the Tampa TE's.  It might not even be close.  IF, and that's a very BIG IF, he stays healthy, he could be a top 5-7 TE.

His issue is durability.  If durability is what you meant by "disappoints", then that's fine.

[IGotWorms 3,297]

He ain’t getting any younger

[weepaws 2,451]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

He ain’t getting any younger

No he ain’t

[polecatt 399]

If you're not getting Kelce, Waller, or a couple of other guys, he's as good a pick as any I suppose.

If I needed a TE and he was on the waiver wire, I would probably pick him up.

He's TD dependent like pretty much all TEs are, but that's one of his specialties.

I think his days of putting up 1200 yards and scoring 12 TDs are over, but he can still have some pretty productive games, with some duds too of course.

Would anyone be at all surprised if he were to catch 8 or even 10 TDs this season? I wouldn't be.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

Would anyone be at all surprised if he were to catch 8 or even 10 TDs this season? I wouldn't be.

I'd be VERY surprised.

[IGotWorms 3,297]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

If you're not getting Kelce, Waller, or a couple of other guys, he's as good a pick as any I suppose.

If I needed a TE and he was on the waiver wire, I would probably pick him up.

He's TD dependent like pretty much all TEs are, but that's one of his specialties.

I think his days of putting up 1200 yards and scoring 12 TDs are over, but he can still have some pretty productive games, with some duds too of course.

Would anyone be at all surprised if he were to catch 8 or even 10 TDs this season? I wouldn't be.

It’s possible but I think even Tampa would prefer that doesn’t happen. They want to keep usage and chance of injury to a minimum until it’s a must win scenario

[Ray_T 587]

On 7/14/2021 at 12:13 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Gronk won't have any real value until Howard get's hurt.... so week 8?  9?  Where do you draft a guy when you can assume he's very volatile until someone else gets hurt?  I don't know, you tell me.

I gotta agree.

It is likely that they may run more 2 TE sets to get them both on the field more.

I think if anyone can manage it, it would be Brady.   but I wouldnt bet on it.

if picking Gronk, you pick him late.  Not early.

[weepaws 2,451]

6 hours ago, polecatt said:

If you're not getting Kelce, Waller, or a couple of other guys, he's as good a pick as any I suppose.

If I needed a TE and he was on the waiver wire, I would probably pick him up.

He's TD dependent like pretty much all TEs are, but that's one of his specialties.

I think his days of putting up 1200 yards and scoring 12 TDs are over, but he can still have some pretty productive games, with some duds too of course.

Would anyone be at all surprised if he were to catch 8 or even 10 TDs this season? I wouldn't be.

I would be. 

[weepaws 2,451]

I don’t see them playing a lot of two te sets,  they have good WRs and R Jones and Gio in the backfield. 

 

[Ray_T 587]

8 hours ago, polecatt said:

If you're not getting Kelce, Waller, or a couple of other guys, he's as good a pick as any I suppose.

If I needed a TE and he was on the waiver wire, I would probably pick him up.

He's TD dependent like pretty much all TEs are, but that's one of his specialties.

I think his days of putting up 1200 yards and scoring 12 TDs are over, but he can still have some pretty productive games, with some duds too of course.

Would anyone be at all surprised if he were to catch 8 or even 10 TDs this season? I wouldn't be.

while I'm not endorsing Gronk as a high ranking TE pick, hes good enough he probably shouldnt be on waivers unless OJ is getting all the reps.

if hes on waivers and you need a TE, hes definitely your guy.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

Here's the skinny with Gronk and fantasy.  If you're drafting him, you should be drafting him with the knowledge that he's not a regular starter until Howard gets hurt.  After that happens, and it most likely will, you can comfortably start Gronk the rest of the year because Howard always gets hurt ends the season on IR.

[DocNiner 44]

On 7/15/2021 at 5:38 PM, weepaws said:

I don’t see them playing a lot of two te sets,  they have good WRs and R Jones and Gio in the backfield. 

 

I agree. His targets won't be that great with the wr's and rb's Tampa has. His best shot at production will be td dependant. He did retire once and was talked into coming back and that paid off for him. He is getting older as far as football age and I.think he'd be lucky to post top 10 TE numbers. I'll take him real late in draft if he's there but don't believe he'll be a league title TE for me.