What age do RB's actually decline

[wolves111 69]

So I've read several articles over the years concerning the age that rb's begin to decline. Seems that the 26- 28 years are consistent with reduced production, depending on usage. That's interesting for this year in particular because of the number of players that qualify. Henry (27), Zeke (26), Jones (26), Carson (26) to name a few.

Do you avoid these players or move them down the rankings when each one is still considered a #1 rb? Henry just had back to back years of 300+ carries. Not even the great Jim Brown ever did that and that's who he is being compared to. 

Anyone have a strong opinion about this trend?

[AxeElf 787]

You can draw some aggregate conclusions based on historical data, but the bottom line is that it depends more on the individual and how motivated they are to stay at the top of their game than it does on their age.  Lots of them fade away after a year or two of success, while Frank Gore was seemingly ageless there for a while.

Rather than avoiding Henry, Zeke and Carson, I've been actively targeting them.

[DrG 94]

There are exceptions, but I think it starts at 25/26 especially with a heavier workload history and once you start picking up injuries. A freak like Henry might well be an exception of course.  A 17 game season with 1 bye probably isn’t going to help.

[Ray_T 589]

depends on the RB to be honest.

the general rule for fantasy is you dont draft a player over the age of 30.

There have been (and will be) exceptions to that rule, but 30 years of age generally seems to be the age where the wheels fall off and the player breaks down physically.  

it is injuries just as often as it is a decline in skill from what I have seen.

That being said, a player with hard miles on the Odometer and large volumes of carries such as Henry may actually go into decline earlier. (at least that seems to be the theory)

I do think there is something to that.   In the age 29 season for Henry (if I owned him) I'd likely try to find a trade partner in my keeper league for a player like him.

but there are always cases where a player can be productive past the age of 30.   Its just not common or typical.

when we think of players who produced reasonably well past the age of 30 the player we think of is Gore who put up over 1000 all purpose yards in his age 33 season.

LT had one decent season in his age 31 year in New York with just over 1200 all purpose yards.   Keep in mind compared to the rest of his career, this was a terrible year for him, but still reasonably productive.

That being said, do not overpay for players in this age range.   take them late or let someone else take that risk.

if they put up numbers you come out ahead.  If they dont, a late round pick that is wasted wont ruin your draft.

 

 

 

[Showboat 144]

Just remembering that Curtis Martin had one of the best seasons of his career at age 31.  As already noted, that is the exception rather than the rule, but you may miss out on special season by simply dismissing all RBs over age x.  There are times when it may be worthwhile taking a chance on an older back (i.e. at the right price, situation, etc.) 

[weepaws 2,459]

No concern of that issue at all, unless I saw a decline from the season before.  

Guys like Henry I’m a little concern about just based on his work load more then age. 

I’ve never looked at a players age when doing  my home work. 

[Ray_T 589]

2 hours ago, Showboat said:

Just remembering that Curtis Martin had one of the best seasons of his career at age 31.  As already noted, that is the exception rather than the rule, but you may miss out on special season by simply dismissing all RBs over age x.  There are times when it may be worthwhile taking a chance on an older back (i.e. at the right price, situation, etc.) 

it is the exception and not the rule.

I am not endorsing not picking a player because hes over 30.

I am suggesting you should never overpay for that player.   There is a difference.

a 31 year old player should never be a first round pick in any format just because of the potential risks.   I'd suggest he probably shouldnt be taken in round 2 or 3 either.

After that you do it on a case by case basis.   but if drafting a guy like this just make sure you take into account the extra risks with drafting a player of that age.

for every player that lights it up at age 30 there are likely about 10 who dont.   so the odds are not great.

sure you look at other factors, like # of touches over the course of the players career.  

Guys like Henry who are really heavily used are far less likely to play past his age 30 year than guys who have lighter workloads.  not picking on Henry.  I like him.  but hes a guy who is likely to  have a shorter career due to the heavy workload he has had.

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

Guys like Henry who are really heavily used are far less likely to play past his age 30 year than guys who have lighter workloads.  not picking on Henry.  I like him.  but hes a guy who is likely to  have a shorter career due to the heavy workload he has had.

You're talking about Henry as if he were human.

[weepaws 2,459]

It’s a double for the Elf. 

[polecatt 402]

I don't know, it seems to me that RBs don't typically decline, they reach a point where they more or less fall off a cliff for one reason or another.

One season they're in contention to be the top pick overall, the next season they're bouncing around the waiver wire.

It's more the hype that declines than anything. A RB that's spent a few seasons as a strong first round pick doesn't go away quickly. It takes 2 or 3 seasons even before they're recognized as low value.

Two perfect examples, David Johnson and Leveon Bell.

Of course there are exceptions, such as Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore. Both play well into their 30s.

There's no age really too young that an RB can hit the wall. You have some RBs that are good for a season or two and never to be heard from again, with little explanation as to why. Steve Slaton comes to mind. Or you have guys like Cadillac WIlliams who started off with 3 huge games and then that was pretty much it.

I play mostly dynasty. So, I always have to be considering how valuable a play is long term. I never assume a RB is gonna have value past two years.

 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

Usage does not matter.  Most RBs decline around 30 years of age regardless of usage.  Lamar Jackson would get lumped into this conversation as well.  He is SO fast, but he might lose a step around age 30 and hopefully he has developed his passing skills more at that point to compensate.

[weepaws 2,459]

Usage can speed things up a little , so I would think it does matter some what.  

[snatchit 108]

I had Curtis Martin when he won the rushing title when he was 31... so there's that. I dont think its so much the age, but the past  usage.