Vegas Odds shifting towards Aaron Rodgers retiring

[jrokh 567]

I am still skeptical he walks from all that skrilla, but nonetheless, here we are...

 

 

 

[polecatt 399]

I wouldn't be shocked if that's the case.

Rodgers is a bit of a wild card. He's got frayed relationships with plenty of people it appears. I'm sure he has plenty of money.

A lot of older players do this, they talk about retirement, and it's usually just a bargaining chip, or reason to get out of camp. They always come around though, if they retire it's right after the season, not before.

Rodgers though, I think there's a good chance it's real.

[wolves111 69]

Rogers seems to be like the kid who shoots his parents and then complains about being an orphan. He wanted to get paid and he did. He wanted a new offense put in last year and they did. He wanted additional weapons but only who he wanted. And now? Still complaining and making threats after getting everything he asked for.

Sadly, Adams and Jones will be impacted if Jordon Love is the new QB. 

[jrokh 567]

22 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I wouldn't be shocked if that's the case.

Rodgers is a bit of a wild card. He's got frayed relationships with plenty of people it appears. I'm sure he has plenty of money.

A lot of older players do this, they talk about retirement, and it's usually just a bargaining chip, or reason to get out of camp. They always come around though, if they retire it's right after the season, not before.

Rodgers though, I think there's a good chance it's real.

Still feels like and old-school game of chicken, but Vegas usually gets better and earlier information than everyone else…

[weepaws 2,451]

Sale Adams and Jones 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Sadly, Adams and Jones will be impacted if Jordon Love is the new QB. 

Well, it wouldn't be "sadly" for Jones owners, since he would instantly become the centerpiece of the offense.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Whole team is a fade if Love is the QB. He’s barely even a college worthy QB let alone pro. They win 3 games tops without Rodgers. I still lean towards him playing and Vegas just doesn’t want to take a bath if he doesn’t so they aren’t offering win totals.

[polecatt 399]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Well, it wouldn't be "sadly" for Jones owners, since he would instantly become the centerpiece of the offense.

Would he?

I guess if Jordan Love struggles at first but I don't think it's a given

[weepaws 2,451]

Jones would be the so called center piece, but without first round production 

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, polecatt said:

Would he?

Well, I don't think they'd structure the offense around Allen Lazard or Robert Tonyan.

[polecatt 399]

58 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Well, I don't think they'd structure the offense around Allen Lazard or Robert Tonyan.

I still think they would be a passing team with Adams though.

Jones would get a likely uptick in touches though

[AxeElf 787]

3 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I still think they would be a passing team with Adams though.

The Packers and Adams have broken off contract negotiations.

Adams may not be there either.

Story.

[polecatt 399]

Yeah, I saw that.

He's still under contract for this season, but he may force a trade or hold out I guess.

Potential nightmare for the Packers

[nobody 2,031]

9 hours ago, tanatastic said:

They win 3 games tops without Rodgers.

Preach.  They get Detroit twice, but they also play the NFC West and AFC North this year.  That's going to be a tough road to hoe.

Even Cincy is early in the season, so Burrow won't be hurt yet.

[Mike FF Today 607]

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

As soon as Roders says he playing publically and Adams does not hold out, they become the overall QB2 and WR1 in drafts.

[Mike FF Today 607]

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

Hey, if I were Aaron Rodgers, I'd be scared to go up against Brady too.  I don't blame him for wanted out of Green Bay and pretending it's about something other than knowing he can't go to a Super Bowl as longs as Brady is in the NFC.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I’ll also now be targeting Jones towards the backend of rnd 1. He has top 5 potential.

[weepaws 2,451]

Unless you draft now, you won’t be getting Jones towards the back half of the first round , he should be right back in the mid first round or earlier. 

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Unless you draft now, you won’t be getting Jones towards the back half of the first round , he should be right back in the mid first round or earlier. 

 

Don’t think he ever had an adp that high before the Rodgers drama. There’s a clear top 6 rb ahead of him (I’d take Jones over Saquon myself but I’m just saying, that’s the adp) and then you have Tyreek, Adams (not there yet but he should be right around Reek adp) so that’s 8. The question then becomes Chubb, Taylor, Ekeler and Jones. So it’s not hard to envision him right at the back end of the round, especially if someone is crazy about taking Kelce which someone always is. 

[DrG 94]

I’d say this moves Adams back up into mid first round and maybe the first wr off the board

[weepaws 2,451]

Jones never did have a ADP mid first round, but I personally think that’s where he should be drafted with Rodgers playing. N

i think the first round Rbs are weak this season, after the top four, Mccaffery, Henry, Zeke, Cook, if im picking fifth , 14 team non ppr I’m taking Jones, even with the concern of Dillon taking some short yardage work from him, but the team did resign Jones, so he’s their rb1. 

6th on back I’m taking T Hill.  

[jrokh 567]

Rodgers rockin the man bun. Looks more like he’s going camping…

 

 

[AintNoStoppinMeNow 68]

3 hours ago, jrokh said:

Rodgers rockin the man bun. Looks more like he’s going camping…

 

 

Looks more like he's looking to buy some drugs in a parking lot. 

[jrokh 567]

1 hour ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

Looks more like he's looking to buy some drugs in a parking lot. 

Nice, I was being kind. Almost like he was asking around for whip-its at a phish show…

[tanatastic 2,061]

12 hours ago, weepaws said:

Jones never did have a ADP mid first round, but I personally think that’s where he should be drafted with Rodgers playing. N

i think the first round Rbs are weak this season, after the top four, Mccaffery, Henry, Zeke, Cook, if im picking fifth , 14 team non ppr I’m taking Jones, even with the concern of Dillon taking some short yardage work from him, but the team did resign Jones, so he’s their rb1. 

6th on back I’m taking T Hill.  

Agree on all this.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

I think the Packers are going to use Jones in a role more similar to Kamara in order to reduce the number of hits he takes from defensive linemen.  I think his carries drop but his pass targets increase.  I think his rushing TD's drop, but his receiving TD's increase.  The issue will be, by how much.  Will the receptions make up for the TD's or just an added extra bonus?

Aaron Jones' track record tells me he's going to get hurt and miss multiple games.  I think he only plays in 13 this year.  I think his carries drop and the result is a lot less rushing TD's.  Yes, we saw it drop from 16 to 9, but I think that can drop to 4 because I think that the bulk of the carries this year will go to Dillon.  Last year, Jones, Dillon, and Williams combined for 366 carries (23 per game among them).  I can see a similar rate, so about 390, among the top 3 ball carriers.  I'll say 200 for Dillon, 150 for Jones, and 40 for whomever gets the backup role in the 4 games Jones misses.

I can see Jones putting up numbers like, 150 carries for 750 yards and 4 TDs with 71 receptions for 580 yards and 5 TD's.  Now, that's a solid total which put him as a mid RB1.  The #1M question will be... which 4 games is he missing?

Edit: Something else to keep in mind as well, the Packers play the NFC West this year, not the South... so they're going to get at least 3 great run defenses where as last year they played 1.  They also play the AFC North, not South this year, so that 3 harder defenses compared to just 1 the year before.  Lastly, their extra game, number 17 - the road game?  It's at KC.  The Packers might actually be throwing more and running less this year.  Another reason for the role shift?  Last year Jones and Williams combined for 78 receptions on 98 targets and Dillon only had 2 targets.  They did replace Williams this past offseason and Dillon wasn't a pass catcher in college.  Somebody's going to get those extra backfield targets and it won't be Dillon.

I'd take him as my RB2.  If I can get someone I trust/like more in the 1st round, I'll be happy to grab him in the 2nd.  If it's between him and a RB I'm not high on, I'd take a WR in the first and take my chances in the second round.

[tanatastic 2,061]

3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think the Packers are going to use Jones in a role more similar to Kamara in order to reduce the number of hits he takes from defensive linemen.  I think his carries drop but his pass targets increase.  I think his rushing TD's drop, but his receiving TD's increase.  The issue will be, by how much.  Will the receptions make up for the TD's or just an added extra bonus?

Aaron Jones' track record tells me he's going to get hurt and miss multiple games.  I think he only plays in 13 this year.  I think his carries drop and the result is a lot less rushing TD's.  Yes, we saw it drop from 16 to 9, but I think that can drop to 4 because I think that the bulk of the carries this year will go to Dillon.  Last year, Jones, Dillon, and Williams combined for 366 carries (23 per game among them).  I can see a similar rate, so about 390, among the top 3 ball carriers.  I'll say 200 for Dillon, 150 for Jones, and 40 for whomever gets the backup role in the 4 games Jones misses.

I can see Jones putting up numbers like, 150 carries for 750 yards and 4 TDs with 71 receptions for 580 yards and 5 TD's.  Now, that's a solid total which put him as a mid RB1.  The #1M question will be... which 4 games is he missing?

I don’t agree with the Kamara stuff or that Dillon gets more carries but the injury track record has definitely made me think harder about him. 

[AxeElf 787]

Yeah, I thought he was saying Dillon would get more GOALLINE carries than Jones, but then I saw him say Dillon would outcarry Jones 200 to 150, and I tossed it in the Weepaws Bin of Abject Nonsense.

[weepaws 2,451]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think the Packers are going to use Jones in a role more similar to Kamara in order to reduce the number of hits he takes from defensive linemen.  I think his carries drop but his pass targets increase.  I think his rushing TD's drop, but his receiving TD's increase.  The issue will be, by how much.  Will the receptions make up for the TD's or just an added extra bonus?

Aaron Jones' track record tells me he's going to get hurt and miss multiple games.  I think he only plays in 13 this year.  I think his carries drop and the result is a lot less rushing TD's.  Yes, we saw it drop from 16 to 9, but I think that can drop to 4 because I think that the bulk of the carries this year will go to Dillon.  Last year, Jones, Dillon, and Williams combined for 366 carries (23 per game among them).  I can see a similar rate, so about 390, among the top 3 ball carriers.  I'll say 200 for Dillon, 150 for Jones, and 40 for whomever gets the backup role in the 4 games Jones misses.

I can see Jones putting up numbers like, 150 carries for 750 yards and 4 TDs with 71 receptions for 580 yards and 5 TD's.  Now, that's a solid total which put him as a mid RB1.  The #1M question will be... which 4 games is he missing?

Edit: Something else to keep in mind as well, the Packers play the NFC West this year, not the South... so they're going to get at least 3 great run defenses where as last year they played 1.  They also play the AFC North, not South this year, so that 3 harder defenses compared to just 1 the year before.  Lastly, their extra game, number 17 - the road game?  It's at KC.  The Packers might actually be throwing more and running less this year.  Another reason for the role shift?  Last year Jones and Williams combined for 78 receptions on 98 targets and Dillon only had 2 targets.  They did replace Williams this past offseason and Dillon wasn't a pass catcher in college.  Somebody's going to get those extra backfield targets and it won't be Dillon.

I'd take him as my RB2.  If I can get someone I trust/like more in the 1st round, I'll be happy to grab him in the 2nd.  If it's between him and a RB I'm not high on, I'd take a WR in the first and take my chances in the second round.

I do agree that Jones is the one replacing Williams, but I don’t agree that Dillon gets more rush att, he’ll play and get some short yardage work and goal line att but he won’t have more rush att as long as Jones stays healthy, now health is a concern when it comes to Jones. 

But Jones will lead the team in rush att rush tds and a bonus even for non ppr , he’ll gain all that work that Williams left behind, after my top four Jones should be next.  

 

[Nomad99 400]

On 7/26/2021 at 4:04 PM, Mike FF Today said:

 

They are foolish for not trading him. One year deal & he walks....they get nothing. 

[Super Cubs 132]

rumor in Houston is GB is trading for Cobb