Trade #1 Pick

[wolves111 69]

So in my 2nd league I've drawn the first pick. As has been discussed in other threads the chances of the #1 pick actually finishing #1 are remote. Do I trade the pick or roll with one of the top thee rb's? The decision on the surface is easy as I'd still be getting a premier rb. However in the even rounds I'm waiting 19 picks before getting another one.

It's not clear to me this early in the new year what is the best draft position this year. With all the uncertainty among the WR's (Adams contract, Ridley ankle, Hopkins vaccine/retirement talk, Cooper foot, Robinson contract, etc) maybe I'm better off picking in the back end of the round and getting a rb and WR with the first two picks?

Cogent debate welcome...

 

[AxeElf 787]

Man, I think I'd just take Henry and be done with it.

There's an argument to be made if you can pick up an extra 3rd or 4th round pick to trade out of #1 or something like that, but otherwise you're still going to have whoever you would have gotten in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. anyway--you just won't have Henry, who DOES have the best chance of being the #1 fantasy performer at the end of the year.

MAYBE try to trade back to 3rd or 4th if one of them is a CMC coveter--then you could still pick up maybe an extra 5th or 6th round pick--and still get Henry (or at worst Zeke).

[wolves111 69]

3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Man, I think I'd just take Henry and be done with it.

There's an argument to be made if you can pick up an extra 3rd or 4th round pick to trade out of #1 or something like that, but otherwise you're still going to have whoever you would have gotten in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. anyway--you just won't have Henry, who DOES have the best chance of being the #1 fantasy performer at the end of the year.

MAYBE try to trade back to 3rd or 4th if one of them is a CMC coveter--then you could still pick up maybe an extra 5th or 6th round pick--and still get Henry (or at worst Zeke).

You know it's funny. I can't remember a year where there is so much uncertainty with the WR's. Even Thomas, Brown, along with the others mentioned. Guess it has me concerned. If I thought I could get Jefferson and Cee Dee at 2 & 3 there would be no hesitation taking Henry at #1. 

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

You know it's funny. I can't remember a year where there is so much uncertainty with the WR's. Even Thomas, Brown, along with the others mentioned. Guess it has me concerned. If I thought I could get Jefferson and Cee Dee at 2 & 3 there would be no hesitation taking Henry at #1. 

10 team league?  I'd say you'd be guaranteed of getting Lamb at the 2/3 turn, and a good chance that Jefferson is there as well.

I'd probly go Henry, Best RB/WR Available (probly a WR), and Mahomes, and fill in after that depending on that 2nd round pick.

[weepaws 2,457]

Sorry for  these question, but here we go, ppr? How many teams in this league? 

[wolves111 69]

39 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Sorry for  these question, but here we go, ppr? How many teams in this league? 

Yeah my bad Weepaws. It's 10 team ppr. They're the only leagues I'm in. Of the top 10 WR's points per game last year half of them now  have issues. Might be prudent to get one of the remaining five. 

 As for Axe drafting Mahomes that early, to me,  is a harder decision than keeping the #1 pick. Does getting him at #21 vs a Dak, Murray, or Allen at pick #41 an advantage?

AxeElf, would you please share you're reasons for targeting Mahomes that early? I took him early last year and it wasn't a good move. What am I missing this year with the Chiefs?

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

It's 10 team ppr.

You said it was 19 picks until your 2nd rounder after #1 overall, so it was pretty clear it was a 10 team league.

3 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

As for Axe drafting Mahomes that early, to me,  is a harder decision than keeping the #1 pick. Does getting him at #21 vs a Dak, Murray, or Allen at pick #41 an advantage?

AxeElf, would you please share you're reasons for targeting Mahomes that early? I took him early last year and it wasn't a good move. What am I missing this year with the Chiefs?

I guess it depends to some degree on your scoring system.  If you have any kind of a premium on QB scoring, like 1 pt per 20 yards passing instead of 1 pt per 25 yards, or 6 pt pass TDs instead of 4 pt pass TDs, then I think Mahomes is as close to a must-draft as there is.  He was already pretty good, but then the team went out and built an iron wall around the pocket in the offseason--and Mahomes is already motivated from losing that last Super Bowl.  The Chiefs' motto this year is "Take it Back!"

I just think Mahomes is going to have himself a year.  Records will be set.  6000 yards passing is not out of the question--that's 353 yards per game over 17 games; Mahomes averaged 316 yards per game last year (and 308 for his career).  If he just maintains 316 yards per game over 17 games, that's 5,372 yards.  At his current career average of 2.53 TDs per game, that's 43 TDs over 17 games as well--but I think he might come closer to 50.

A 10 team league is small enough that passing on a second RB or WR at that point isn't really all that much of a penalty, compared to securing another player who is #1 at his position to go along with Henry.  You should still have good options at both RB and WR come the 4/5 turn.

[polecatt 401]

9 hours ago, wolves111 said:

 As has been discussed in other threads the chances of the #1 pick actually finishing #1 are remote.

Of course that's true, any single pick is gonna be a very long shot for that.

It's still more likely than any pick behind it.

If you can find a good bargain deal, I would do it, otherwise I would just take one of the top RBs, probably Henry.

I for one like having picks close together like that as opposed in the middle.

[wolves111 69]

11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You said it was 19 picks until your 2nd rounder after #1 overall, so it was pretty clear it was a 10 team league.

I guess it depends to some degree on your scoring system.  If you have any kind of a premium on QB scoring, like 1 pt per 20 yards passing instead of 1 pt per 25 yards, or 6 pt pass TDs instead of 4 pt pass TDs, then I think Mahomes is as close to a must-draft as there is.  He was already pretty good, but then the team went out and built an iron wall around the pocket in the offseason--and Mahomes is already motivated from losing that last Super Bowl.  The Chiefs' motto this year is "Take it Back!"

I just think Mahomes is going to have himself a year.  Records will be set.  6000 yards passing is not out of the question--that's 353 yards per game over 17 games; Mahomes averaged 316 yards per game last year (and 308 for his career).  If he just maintains 316 yards per game over 17 games, that's 5,372 yards.  At his current career average of 2.53 TDs per game, that's 43 TDs over 17 games as well--but I think he might come closer to 50.

A 10 team league is small enough that passing on a second RB or WR at that point isn't really all that much of a penalty, compared to securing another player who is #1 at his position to go along with Henry.  You should still have good options at both RB and WR come the 4/5 turn.

That's why T. Hill has become an obsession with me. If you're right, pairing him with Mahomes would be fun. But it would be at the expense of getting one of the top rb's.

[wolves111 69]

6 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Of course that's true, any single pick is gonna be a very long shot for that.

It's still more likely than any pick behind it.

If you can find a good bargain deal, I would do it, otherwise I would just take one of the top RBs, probably Henry.

I for one like having picks close together like that as opposed in the middle.

Yeah I like the picks close as well. Front end or back end.

[AxeElf 787]

3 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

That's why T. Hill has become an obsession with me. If you're right, pairing him with Mahomes would be fun. But it would be at the expense of getting one of the top rb's.

Just did that at 1.8 of a 14 teamer.

 

[weepaws 2,457]

10 teamer ppr league, I would easily stay with the first pick and Mccaffery would be that pick. 

Only ten teams the ten around is short you can easily build a great team in the draft with the very first pick in a ppr ten team league. 

And being ppr it even makes is easier, the depth at both wr and rb and Te is greater in a ppr then a non ppr league. 

But if you do want to trade down I like the 4-5 spot or 8-10.  

But please don’t take a Qb early , don’t take one before the double digit rounds begin, Cousins avg only 5 points per game less then Mahomes and it will be that way this season, no Qb is going to run away with the title of number one Qb, and remember based on avg Mahomes as been first only once the last three seasons.  

Go rb and wr early , if the top four Rbs have been taken I would easily take T Hill, pick five on back , right now I see only four Rbs I really like in th first round, I think this is s sold season for level two and three Rbs, I like a lot of round 2 rbs. 

And then Hill becomes your corner stone for your WRs to build on , and round 4 you can add Woods or someone of that value.  

I also disagree that one can’t with a ff championship at ten draft, I think one can, I’ve seen and done it, one can lose it at the draft also, so draft wisely and if you need anymore help just fire away .

Thanks op always appreciate your threads   

 

[DocNiner 44]

Yeah I'd stand at 1 and take Henry. He's durable and gets all the carries. McCaffrey leaves me worried coming back from injury that cost him last year. Will he hold up? Who knows but.for a #1 pick he's risky. I do like the idea of taking Mahomes at the turn in round 3. As was said, they addressed the O-line pretty good and Mahomies is lacking his chops. He's got a big chip on his shoulders after the SB loss and he'll be out to prove a point. Might have his best year yet and if I get the chance to get him in some of my leagues, already have him in 2, I'm jumping all over that dog.

[polecatt 401]

2 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah I like the picks close as well. Front end or back end.

Yeah, after the first round or so, it's pretty much the same on both sides.

I just feel like it gives me the freedom to take more risks and not worry so much about overreaching.  If there's two players you like, then you can just take them both usually.

Plus, I don't worry so much about a risky pick because I can follow it up really quick with a conservative one. Or on the 2nd pick, I don't mind reaching a few spots for a player because I know they won't last two rounds.

Picking in the middle, you just never know what's going on really

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

Yeah, after the first round or so, it's pretty much the same on both sides.

I just feel like it gives me the freedom to take more risks and not worry so much about overreaching.  If there's two players you like, then you can just take them both usually.

Plus, I don't worry so much about a risky pick because I can follow it up really quick with a conservative one. Or on the 2nd pick, I don't mind reaching a few spots for a player because I know they won't last two rounds.

Picking in the middle, you just never know what's going on really

The flip side to that is that in the middle of the order, you have greater ability to respond to draft trends on the fly.  In this 14 team draft I'm in right now, I really appreciate being smack dab in the middle of the order, because as hard as it is to wait 12 and 14 picks between my o.8 and e.7 picks, it would be absolutely excruciating to watch 26 players come off the board between every pair of my own picks.  If a QB run starts just after your pick, you're screwed--whereas with a mid-order pick, you're never TOO far from being able to respond.

[weepaws 2,457]

Best to stay away from the runs.  

Also better in a draft to be the trend starter , so if a trend of drafting qbs start in the middle of a draft, that’s great news, more Rbs and WRs yours truly

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

On 7/25/2021 at 8:38 AM, wolves111 said:

So in my 2nd league I've drawn the first pick. As has been discussed in other threads the chances of the #1 pick actually finishing #1 are remote. Do I trade the pick or roll with one of the top thee rb's? The decision on the surface is easy as I'd still be getting a premier rb. However in the even rounds I'm waiting 19 picks before getting another one.

It's not clear to me this early in the new year what is the best draft position this year. With all the uncertainty among the WR's (Adams contract, Ridley ankle, Hopkins vaccine/retirement talk, Cooper foot, Robinson contract, etc) maybe I'm better off picking in the back end of the round and getting a rb and WR with the first two picks?

Cogent debate welcome...

 

I see no downside to moving down.  I don't think there's a clear cut #1 pick.

• McCaffrey's coming off an injury
• Cook gets hurt every year
• Kamara's fine, but the Saints are a mess
• Henry just came off a season with about 400 touches (the kiss of death).
• Barkley was hurt all year
• Elliott had a down year

Trading from 1 to say 6 and you're still guaranteed any one of these guys, which to me are interchangeable, and you'll get an extra pick earlier in the draft.

[polecatt 401]

19 hours ago, AxeElf said:

The flip side to that is that in the middle of the order, you have greater ability to respond to draft trends on the fly.  In this 14 team draft I'm in right now, I really appreciate being smack dab in the middle of the order, because as hard as it is to wait 12 and 14 picks between my o.8 and e.7 picks, it would be absolutely excruciating to watch 26 players come off the board between every pair of my own picks.  If a QB run starts just after your pick, you're screwed--whereas with a mid-order pick, you're never TOO far from being able to respond.

Yeah, there's no perfect draft spot.

I like though to use the draft spots where you have them right there to try and get the jump on trends. I would be more likely to draft a QB or TE a little earlier when I know I have another pick nearby, before or after, than when I just have one I can plan on.

[tanatastic 2,061]

On 7/26/2021 at 8:31 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

I see no downside to moving down.  I don't think there's a clear cut #1 pick.

• McCaffrey's coming off an injury
• Cook gets hurt every year
• Kamara's fine, but the Saints are a mess
• Henry just came off a season with about 400 touches (the kiss of death).
• Barkley was hurt all year
• Elliott had a down year

Trading from 1 to say 6 and you're still guaranteed any one of these guys, which to me are interchangeable, and you'll get an extra pick earlier in the draft.

This is how I think of it. I always want the bottom of my highest tier so the next pick is better. Pick 6 has a chance to land a top wr on the comeback but pick 1 has zero shot. I’m at 11 this year and feel great about it. I will have my pick of great wrs for round 2 and in rnd 1 is a guy like Ekeler or Jones THAT much worse potentially than the top 6?

[wolves111 69]

5 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

This is how I think of it. I always want the bottom of my highest tier so the next pick is better. Pick 6 has a chance to land a top wr on the comeback but pick 1 has zero shot. I’m at 11 this year and feel great about it. I will have my pick of great wrs for round 2 and in rnd 1 is a guy like Ekeler or Jones THAT much worse potentially than the top 6?

I like the idea of Ekeler and one of the WR's