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dpbuddha

Safest stack & biggest upside. KC?

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I normally wouldn't want multiple passing weapons on one team, but I'm going to be keeping Tyreek as my only keeper for my main league and if I can pull off Mahomes and Kelce without blowing my entire budget, I'm feeling that would be a pretty safe base and very explosive for my fantasy team. Yes, the bye week would suck, but other than that I'd be looking pretty good I feel. Is Kelce a bad move here? Do you guys think a 3 player stack is too much or is this a possible exception?

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If there's an exception, it's KC this year...  but yeah, besides the bye week, there will probly be one or two 200/1/1 weeks out of Mahomes--and the TD will probly be to McKinnon.

Not trying to be a Negative Nancy, because I have Mahomes in 16 of 19 leagues so far, and stacked him with Hill in 3 of them.

Just be aware that having a QB and WR from the same team promotes inconsistent scoring--more variance in BIG big weeks and BAD bad weeks--than having a QB and WR from different teams whose performances are not tied to each other's.  That said, having a WR/RB from the same team, and to a lesser extent, a WR/TE combo from the same team, tends to promote more consistent scoring--but that also means fewer explosive weeks.

I'd say pick one or the other--Mahomes or Kelce--and use your money on RBs and another WR or two--then grab someone like Cousins/Ryan/Jones or Higbee/Engram/Firkser later for the QB or TE you saved on.

Personally, I bet Mahomes has more value for what you will spend on him this year than Kelce will--especially if your league offers any kind of premium on QB scoring.  You can probly get Mahomes for about $25 (of a typical $200 budget), while Kelce could run you upwards of $40.

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Rodgers Adams gonna be cheaper than Mahomes Reek due to the sweet discount on Rodgers for no reason. I’ll be going for Hopkins Murray again this season personally. 
 

3 players is fine too as you should always treat players as their own commodity. The fact that they play for the same team is coincidence, in the end you just start who you think will score the most. Reek and Kelce will both be good though and I personally feel Mahomes has an MVP type season 40+td.

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No I don’t like Qb-wr or in this case te combos. 

Always seems like I regretted doing it. A few bad games can screw  you over plus a bye weeks  plus what if the key that’s Mahomes as in injury. 

Now if I was in the same league I would totally in courage you to do so.  

I hope that helps wolves. 

 

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39 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

The fact that they play for the same team is coincidence

It's NOT "just coincidence."  The performances of QBs and WRs from the same team are positively correlated, while performances of RBs and WRs from the same team are negatively correlated.  Performances of players on different teams are not correlated at all.

You may not understand the statistical principles in play, but denying they exist is just willful ignorance.

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Just now, AxeElf said:

It's NOT "just coincidence."  The performances of QBs and WRs from the same team are positively correlated, while performances of RBs and WRs from the same team are negatively correlated.  Performances of players on different teams are not correlated at all.

You may not understand the statistical principles in play, but denying they exist is just willful ignorance.

It all comes down to Start who you think will score the most points.

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Dallas as long as Dak is healthy. Ceedee looks poised for a breakout and Gallup could be a monster if Cooper misses any time with that foot issue. Zeke is a safe pick at the end of the 1st round but if he goes down, Pollard could be a league winner.

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Zeke is a safe pick at the end of the 1st round

At the end of the first round??

Zeke is a safe pick among the top 3 RBs off the board.

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19 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

At the end of the first round??

Zeke is a safe pick among the top 3 RBs off the board.

I agree. Just referencing more to his ADP being late 1st. He feels like a safe bet anywhere in the 1st. 

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11 hours ago, weepaws said:

No I don’t like Qb-wr or in this case te combos. 

Always seems like I regretted doing it. A few bad games can screw  you over plus a bye weeks  plus what if the key that’s Mahomes as in injury. 

Now if I was in the same league I would totally in courage you to do so.  

I hope that helps wolves. 

 

Why are you a directing this to me? I haven't commented on this thread.

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If there is a team and 3 players to go this route with, it's the three you're speaking on here.

They should each be top 3 in their respective positions. I think that's an easy call.

Try and keep all three. Yeah it may make for a couple of bad weeks if the team struggles, which will happen. Think of the upside though of when all 3 of them go off

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The best bang for the buck on a QB/WR stack would be Stafford and Woods.  You'll probably be able to get Woods in the 4th and Stafford in the 8th or later.  Both could be top 5 or 7 at their positions.

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15 hours ago, dpbuddha said:

I normally wouldn't want multiple passing weapons on one team, but I'm going to be keeping Tyreek as my only keeper for my main league and if I can pull off Mahomes and Kelce without blowing my entire budget, I'm feeling that would be a pretty safe base and very explosive for my fantasy team. Yes, the bye week would suck, but other than that I'd be looking pretty good I feel. Is Kelce a bad move here? Do you guys think a 3 player stack is too much or is this a possible exception?

Interesting history:

1994 49er's

 Steve Young- 3969 yds, 35 tds, 293 ru, 7 tds

Ricky Watters- 877 yds ru, 6 tds, 66/719 rec, 5 tds

Jerry Rice- 112/1500 yds rec, 13 tds, 93 ru, 2 tds

1999 Rams-

Warner 4300, 41 tds, 92 ru, 1 td

Faulk- 1381 ru, 7 tds, 87/1048, 5 tds

Bruce- 75/1165, 12 tds

2004 Colts-

Manning- 4557, 49 tds

James- 1548 ru, 9 tds, 51/413 rec

Harrison- 86/1113, 15 tds

All SB winning teams so it may be cherry picking somewhat but clearly it's possible to support three players from high powered offenses.

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Stacking can be a great strategy for any one game and maybe especially strong in underdog matchups. Over the long run though risk is negatively asymmetrical unless you have an equal replacement for one of those players. Too many eggs in one basket for too long. So a qb WR3 can be a good stack. But risk of a Rodgers Adams etc. obvious if one gets hurt.

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2 hours ago, wolves111 said:

All SB winning teams so it may be cherry picking somewhat but clearly it's possible to support three players from high powered offenses.

So it's happened 3 times in the last 30 years and that makes it a good strategy?  Ok...

 

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"So it's happened 3 times"

We're not talking about the three times you had your way with a blowup doll. Go away.

Does anyone know how I block this little nerd on this site?

 

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1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

"So it's happened 3 times"

We're not talking about the three times you had your way with a blowup doll. Go away.

Does anyone know how I block this little nerd on this site?

First, you have to divulge yourself of any desire to win at fantasy football...  then it becomes easy.

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

First, you have to divulge yourself of any desire to win at fantasy football...  then it becomes easy.

You really are

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