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tanatastic

Ryan Tannehill, the most underrated starting QB in FF.

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Just some fun facts about Tannehill who is currently drafted in the 9th round. Since taking over for the Titans as the starter 26 games ago he has scored the 3rd most points at QB. He RAN for 7 tds last year and passed for 33 for a total of 40. Yes, 40. That’s on a run first team with Henry who ran for 2kyds and has had the number of touches that usually means a regression the following year, plus they just aquired Julio Jones. 
 

He’s the steal of the draft at QB this season. He’s being drafted behind annual bum Matt Stafford who hasn’t even tossed 30td in 6 years and Jalen Hurts who had maybe 2 good games. It’s larceny getting him as your starter in even rnd 7 let alone 9 but the later the better.

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25 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Just some fun facts about Tannehill who is currently drafted in the 9th round. Since taking over for the Titans as the starter 26 games ago he has scored the 3rd most points at QB. He RAN for 7 tds last year and passed for 33 for a total of 40. Yes, 40. That’s on a run first team with Henry who ran for 2kyds and has had the number of touches that usually means a regression the following year, plus they just aquired Julio Jones. 
 

He’s the steal of the draft at QB this season. He’s being drafted behind annual bum Matt Stafford who hasn’t even tossed 30td in 6 years and Jalen Hurts who had maybe 2 good games. It’s larceny getting him as your starter in even rnd 7 let alone 9 but the later the better.

Yeah sign me up for Stafford having a typical, disappointing year. He's been living off his 41 td's since 2011. Ten years of regression.

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Stafford 26 tds and 4000 yards on a team that was horrible, now he’s going to have two very good WRs , I see him like what happen with Tannehill enjoyed very good success on a new team.  

 

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Stafford was actually kicking butt in 2019 before getting hurt. The ceiling for Stafford is much much higher than Tannehill's in my opinion just because of volume. Rams are gonna throw a lot. Titans are not gonna throw hardly at all. I think Tannehill is great but last season is his ceiling in my opinion. All the chips have to fall right for him to repeat those numbers. His volume would need to increase if he were to IMPROVE on those numbers and I just can't see that happening with a healthy Derrick Henry.

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This post would have been correct had it been last preseason. I drafted Tannehill for literal pennies last season.

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I think someone that is undervalued is Baker Mayfield. He fits into similar mold of Tannehill where he is on a run first team and surrounded by weapons at the skill positions. Being that Baker is still young its not impossible for him to improve on his accuracy and decision making. He makes for a very safe QB2 with QB1 upside IMO.

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4 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

His volume would need to increase if he were to IMPROVE on those numbers and I just can't see that happening with a healthy Derrick Henry.

Really? The Titans are a smart organization. They don't want Henry running the ball 400 times this year. That was part of their calculus in trading for Julio. I fully expect a slight decrease in Henry's rushes per game and a moderate increase in Tanny's Pass Attempts per game. That being said, I don't really see him as being under valued. Once you get past the Top Qb's, he is in that next tier with Brady/Burrow etc. I am with you on Baker. He is essentially free in 1 QB leagues and should approximate top 15 value.

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6 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

 His volume would need to increase if he were to IMPROVE on those numbers and I just can't see that happening with a healthy Derrick Henry.

Bringing in Julio and having an RB who just had an amount of touches that almost always leads to a decrease the next year is exactly the catalyst needed for passing volume increase.

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2 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Bringing in Julio and having an RB who just had an amount of touches that almost always leads to a decrease the next year is exactly the catalyst needed for passing volume increase.

Plus you got an extra game this year, Henry can’t expect to keep doing all this with an extra game to boot.

I like the call :thumbsup:

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I think Stafford is tops for underrated ff Qb, but I do think Tannehill and the Titans throw more this season, I think more so early in the season, but I just have a feeling they’ll be one of those teams that don’t perform as most think they will.  

I think Mayfield is a 19 points per game type of Qb , mid qb2, would help if Beckham can produce. 

 

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Tannehill is the incredibly boring, yet very smart pick.

He's the modern day version of Vinny Testaverde, after struggling with high hopes early on in his career, he's come back and is a solid QB late in his career.

He's on a team that's built a solid offense around him, good OL, top notch RB and two stud WRs. He should be a low end QB1 again at worst.

I would say wait until the 9th or 10th round or so, double up on him and Stafford. Have the ultimate streaming duo at QB!

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13 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Bringing in Julio and having an RB who just had an amount of touches that almost always leads to a decrease the next year is exactly the catalyst needed for passing volume increase.

I disagree I think game script is more important. If Titans want to lessen the load on Henry they could theoretically just spell Henry by giving carries to someone else. Does not necessarily mean they will throw more.

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I disagree I think game script is more important. If Titans want to lessen the load on Henry they could theoretically just spell Henry by giving carries to someone else. Does not necessarily mean they will throw more.

They didn't trade what they did and take on Julios cap just to have him twiddling his thumbs. I fully expect to see passing volume increase.

I also think you're going to see a lot more of Henry in the screen game. They seem to have been working on it more in practice, and Vrabel has made comments that Henry is improving as a pass catcher. Those are just free yards and scores for tannehill.

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18 minutes ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

They didn't trade what they did and take on Julios cap just to have him twiddling his thumbs. I fully expect to see passing volume increase.

I also think you're going to see a lot more of Henry in the screen game. They seem to have been working on it more in practice, and Vrabel has made comments that Henry is improving as a pass catcher. Those are just free yards and scores for tannehill.

Who said Julio was twiddling his thumbs? In case you haven't noticed Julio is and has always been one of the better run blocking WRs in the game. 

As for the Henry catching more screen passes, we've been hearing this for years now. I'll believe it when I see it, and it also goes against the "Henry will see less touches" theory.

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18 hours ago, jrokh said:

Really? The Titans are a smart organization. They don't want Henry running the ball 400 times this year. That was part of their calculus in trading for Julio. I fully expect a slight decrease in Henry's rushes per game and a moderate increase in Tanny's Pass Attempts per game. That being said, I don't really see him as being under valued. Once you get past the Top Qb's, he is in that next tier with Brady/Burrow etc. I am with you on Baker. He is essentially free in 1 QB leagues and should approximate top 15 value.

What makes you think they don't want Henry to carry the ball 400 times? Last year's numbers indicate the opposite. I think if it were possible the titans would want Henry to carry the ball 1000 times if he could. He is their most important skill player is he not? They want the ball in his hands as much as possible. Preserving him for future seasons doesn't seem like the play when Tannehill and Julio's windows are closing. And for that matter Henry is 27 which is old for today's RB's. 

 

I've been saying all along, bringing in Julio is not going to change their offensive philosophy. It's Henry 1st, everyone else 2nd. 

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2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

What makes you think they don't want Henry to carry the ball 400 times?

Logic. Titans believe they are contenders. They don’t want their best player coming off 378 carries to have even more work in the regular season now that he is getting older. That’s part of the reason they traded a second round pick for Julio. It wasn’t for his blocking as you alluded to. As always when there is a disagreement reality will be the final arbiter…

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Corey Davis was very inconsistent.  I've read and heard from numerous outlets that he was truly a one-trick pony.  He could easily be game planned for by the defense and can be taken out of games.  That won't be so easy with Julio.  Adam Humphries was a solid 3rd receiver, but he was never able to stay healthy.  In 4 years, Josh Reynolds never missed a game.  I think Jones and Reynolds will be much more involved in the passing game than Davis and Humphries were.

Losing Jonnu hurts, but they have Firkser who I think will be much more active.  I'm surprised they didn't try to bulk up their TE position after Jonnu left.  I forget the kids names, but they did draft a 3rd round RB last year and a 4th round WR this year.  I'm expecting the RB they drafted to be more involved than last year and I'd expect that they'd try to get the WR they just drafted into the mix as well.

They'll have 17 games, not 16 this year.  With 3 years and $45M on the table with Henry over these next 3 seasons, I can't imagine them wanting to run him into the ground a.s.a.p.  He got just a shade under 400 touches last year, I think 398(?).  I think despite the extra game, Henry has less touches this year than last.  I believe he was around 25 touches per game last year, I think that drops to around 21.  I think those 4 touches per game get split up between the RB from last year and more passes.

I also agree with what was mentioned above in that there could be a transition of touches as well for Henry.  I think he may get 2 or 3 less carries per game and they may be in lieu of pass targets.  That's 2 to 3 less times a game he gets hit by 300 lb lineman and more times by 240 lb backers and 185 lb DB's which would reduce his wear and tear... it also increases the pass attempts.  So, a couple extra game planned pass attempts plus a couple of extra just for Henry could lead to Tannehill going from 30 pass attempts per game (which ranked 32nd among QB's with 5 games played), up to about 34 which would put him in the middle of the pack.  If he keeps his y/a and TD% similar, you're looking at an increase of about 2 fantasy points per game.

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14 hours ago, jrokh said:

Logic. Titans believe they are contenders. They don’t want their best player coming off 378 carries to have even more work in the regular season now that he is getting older. That’s part of the reason they traded a second round pick for Julio. It wasn’t for his blocking as you alluded to. As always when there is a disagreement reality will be the final arbiter…

Logic tells me they're not going to force feed Julio just because he's the shiny new toy. He'll be an important part of THEIR offense but THEIR offense revolves around Derrick Henry and the run game first. I think Tannehill is properly rated so for the most part we agree. I think if Tannehill were to see a drastic increase in volume and he were to rely on Henry less its not impossible to see his efficiency numbers take a hit. Tannehill has been ridiculously efficient last 2 seasons. It's also worth noting his 7 rushing TD's were a career high and most likely not sustainable. 

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Titans will have a down year this next season. 

I think they will be less productive, which means less ff points.  

 

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On 8/1/2021 at 1:58 PM, weepaws said:

I think Stafford is tops for underrated ff Qb, but I do think Tannehill and the Titans throw more this season, I think more so early in the season, but I just have a feeling they’ll be one of those teams that don’t perform as most think they will.  

I think Mayfield is a 19 points per game type of Qb , mid qb2, would help if Beckham can produce. 

 

Now I see that Stafford injured his thumb that he had offseason surgery on, there goes all those ff mock teams I drafted him on as my Qb. 

Oh boy. 

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On 7/31/2021 at 3:12 PM, cyclone24 said:

Pittsburgh, san fran and Miami in playoffs….hell no.

So, you'll only draft a QB that has 3 slated "easy" opponents during the weeks of 14, 15, 16?

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12 minutes ago, joneo said:

So, you'll only draft a QB that has 3 slated "easy" opponents during the weeks of 14, 15, 16?

As if defenses don’t wildly fluctuate every year anyway. Imagine running scared from Tua and the dolphins. Heck I’ll even bump Tannehill up a spot if anything. Facing a shootout with Steelers, a potential rookie in Trey Lance and Tua led dolphins? Sign me up.

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33 minutes ago, joneo said:

So, you'll only draft a QB that has 3 slated "easy" opponents during the weeks of 14, 15, 16?

Guess Brady will be at the top of his draft board.  Depending on the league structure, Tampa's last 5 games (Weeks 14 - 18), are home vs Buffalo, and New Orleans, then @ Carolina and Jets, and finally a home game vs Carolina.  I expect Buffalo to be a good team, but I don't their defense will be special or anything.  Probably decent.  As for New Orleans, Carolina, and the Jets, I expect all 3 to be below average.

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20 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Guess Brady will be at the top of his draft board.  Depending on the league structure, Tampa's last 5 games (Weeks 14 - 18), are home vs Buffalo, and New Orleans, then @ Carolina and Jets, and finally a home game vs Carolina.  I expect Buffalo to be a good team, but I don't their defense will be special or anything.  Probably decent.  As for New Orleans, Carolina, and the Jets, I expect all 3 to be below average.

Tom just turned 44 how he is he still going this strong is freakish to me.

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10 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Tom just turned 44 how he is he still going this strong is freakish to me.

I have no idea either.  This is beyond normal.  On top of that, he'll be healthier this year than last year.  I hope we never see him a shell of what he once was like we did with Peyton that last year.

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Like what P Manning said at his hof speech, when we see Brady in shrine in 2035. 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Guess Brady will be at the top of his draft board.  Depending on the league structure, Tampa's last 5 games (Weeks 14 - 18), are home vs Buffalo, and New Orleans, then @ Carolina and Jets, and finally a home game vs Carolina.  I expect Buffalo to be a good team, but I don't their defense will be special or anything.  Probably decent.  As for New Orleans, Carolina, and the Jets, I expect all 3 to be below average.

Actually he is because of that very reason. Weeks 15 through 18 his schedule is cupcake city. What good does it do you to make the playoffs just to get whacked because you play a tough playoff schedule?? 
 

Sure defenses fluctuate but you really doubt that Pittsburgh San Francisco in Miami are not going to have some pretty good defenses? They aren’t going to fluctuate and be terrible.

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Steelers were a pretty bad def their last 6 games including their lone playoff game. 

So yeah I can say they might not be that good and maybe even terrible 

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19 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Actually he is because of that very reason. Weeks 15 through 18 his schedule is cupcake city. What good does it do you to make the playoffs just to get whacked because you play a tough playoff schedule?? 
 

Sure defenses fluctuate but you really doubt that Pittsburgh San Francisco in Miami are not going to have some pretty good defenses? They aren’t going to fluctuate and be terrible.

Playoffs are a total crapshoot anyway. One and Done. I would never draft or not draft someone based on their playoff schedule.

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14 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Playoffs are a total crapshoot anyway. One and Done. I would never draft or not draft someone based on their playoff schedule.

No obviously not just because of that but certainly something to look at. I’m not exactly sure why you wouldn’t. 

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8 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

No obviously not just because of that but certainly something to look at. I’m not exactly sure why you wouldn’t. 

Never have, Never will. 

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17 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Never have, Never will. 

Cool. You take the guy with a brutal playoff schedule and I’ll take the guy with the easy one. I’ll win more often than not.

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I don’t know, but in my 14 team non ppr league, there is no guarantee that one makes the playoffs since only four teams can, no need to draft for playoff matchups, but some leagues everyone makes the playoffs, so I guess that’s the exception. 

And no ff league besides that 14 team non ppr league that I participate in , is there a guaranteed playoff spot , so no wouldn’t draft for playoffs then either. 

So no I wouldn’t draft based on playoff matchups. 

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1 minute ago, weepaws said:

I don’t know, but in my 14 team non ppr league, there is no guarantee that one makes the playoffs since only four teams can, no need to draft for playoff matchups, but some leagues everyone makes the playoffs, so I guess that’s the exception. 

And no ff league besides that 14 team non ppr league that I participate in , is there a guaranteed playoff spot , so no wouldn’t draft for playoffs then either. 

So no I wouldn’t draft based on playoff matchups. 

And that’s fair. Our league half of them make the playoffs so that’s a little different scenario. You can’t really afford to play it that way for sure.

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7 hours ago, cyclone24 said:

Cool. You take the guy with a brutal playoff schedule and I’ll take the guy with the easy one. I’ll win more often than not.

Not at all, that’s too rigid a thought process for FF which is about as fluid as it gets in every facet. It never is that cut and dry when it comes down to it and too much happens during the course of a season. Today’s bad defense could be tomorrow’s great defense. Injury, coaches, player turnover, lot of other variables. I don’t consider the teams you mentioned to be any kind of murderers row at all. If anything they should be scared of facing Henry, Julio and Tannehil. Can’t count how many times I’ve seen hours deliberating QB matchups just for the other guy facing the stout D to go off while your great matchup stud hands off 3 tds. All you can do is start the player you think will score the most based on the information you have obviously. 

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13 hours ago, cyclone24 said:

Actually he is because of that very reason. Weeks 15 through 18 his schedule is cupcake city. What good does it do you to make the playoffs just to get whacked because you play a tough playoff schedule?? 
 

Sure defenses fluctuate but you really doubt that Pittsburgh San Francisco in Miami are not going to have some pretty good defenses? They aren’t going to fluctuate and be terrible.

His schedule is a cupcake all year.  The NFC South is a joke this year.  New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta will all have losing records with Atlanta probably being the second best and a 7-win team.  They play the NFC East, where the Eagles and Dallas defenses are terrible, the Giants are decent, with the Redskins being the only good one.  Yet, none of those teams are better than 10-win teams.  They play the AFC East where Miami has the only good defense and while Buffalo is a legit contender, the defense is only average.  That's 14 of their 17 games.  Their other 3 games are the Rams, which will be tough (although with Akers out, not as tough as originally expected), the Bears, which should be cake, and the Colts who are in disarray.  Right now, the Rams are the only team that could probably keep Tampa under 35 points and them and Buffalo are the only two teams who might win.

I'm perfectly fine watching everyone take Mahomes, Allen, Murray, & Jackson in the first 4 rounds... I'll take Brady and his 5k yards and 50 TD's in the 8th.

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6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

His schedule is a cupcake all year.  The NFC South is a joke this year.  New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta will all have losing records with Atlanta probably being the second best and a 7-win team.  They play the NFC East, where the Eagles and Dallas defenses are terrible, the Giants are decent, with the Redskins being the only good one.  Yet, none of those teams are better than 10-win teams.  They play the AFC East where Miami has the only good defense and while Buffalo is a legit contender, the defense is only average.  That's 14 of their 17 games.  Their other 3 games are the Rams, which will be tough (although with Akers out, not as tough as originally expected), the Bears, which should be cake, and the Colts who are in disarray.  Right now, the Rams are the only team that could probably keep Tampa under 35 points and them and Buffalo are the only two teams who might win.

I'm perfectly fine watching everyone take Mahomes, Allen, Murray, & Jackson in the first 4 rounds... I'll take Brady and his 5k yards and 50 TD's in the 8th.

Plus defensively they are really good so they should get the ball back on the offense a lot. And Brady doesn’t exactly let off the gas. 
 

Yeah obviously it’s fluid. I could even justify streaming a couple quarterbacks this year like cousins and Trey Lance. You look at their opening schedule and they’re closing schedules and they are pretty good. Probably won’t do that but just saying I’m aware it’s all very fluid

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1 hour ago, cyclone24 said:

Plus defensively they are really good so they should get the ball back on the offense a lot. And Brady doesn’t exactly let off the gas. 
 

Yeah obviously it’s fluid. I could even justify streaming a couple quarterbacks this year like cousins and Trey Lance. You look at their opening schedule and they’re closing schedules and they are pretty good. Probably won’t do that but just saying I’m aware it’s all very fluid

In 1 QB leagues, I agree with you.  In my office league, 10 teams, I never draft a QB until right before the end of the draft.  Only half the teams take a backup.  I look to see who has the most favorable schedule at the beginning and end of the season and take both of them... then I take my kicker then defense, end of draft.  A couple years ago I took Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers AFTER taking my kicker and defense and laughed my way to a championship.  I think it was 2018.  If not, it was Cousins' first year in Minnesota... whichever that one was.

Guys were like, "How did you get that many good RB's and WR's?"... Uh, because I didn't take a Quarterback or Tight End in the first 6 rounds.  Not that hard.

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21 hours ago, jrokh said:

Playoffs are a total crapshoot anyway. One and Done. I would never draft or not draft someone based on their playoff schedule.

:thumbsup: This.

also, you need to first make the playoffs.

a QB with a good regular season schedule may be more helpful.  you can always make a trade midseason to cover playoffs  if need be.

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