Ryan Tannehill, the most underrated starting QB in FF.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

9 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I already am ‘on the record’ refuting your delusion. Now if you want to make it interesting, make it matter  I am all in. Otherwise your just another fanboy writing a check your butt can’t cash…

I know, you're one of those guys who sees a prediction/projection and says "Not uh".  Sorry, I don't make bets with children.

[jrokh 567]

3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I know, you're one of those guys who sees a prediction/projection and says "Not uh".  Sorry, I don't make bets with children.

That’s what I thought. Props to @tanatastic at least he’s got the courage of his convictions. I guess what you hear about Tampa People is true in your case at least…

[IGotWorms 3,300]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

He was the QB4 when he got hurt in 2019.

In that same year, Kupp and Woods were the #4 and #14 WRs.

And what was he at the end of the year? Per game is relevant but my point is he hasn’t actually put together a good fantasy season in a few years now.

[AxeElf 787]

15 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

And what was he at the end of the year?

QB4 in points per game.

[weepaws 2,452]

Woods and Kupp have their best Qb they ever played with on the Rams. 

There is not and should not be any question about a Qb of the caliber of Stafford with those two WRs plus the other weapons on the team , that Stafford will be a top ten Qb, and he’s right on the edge of being a double digit pick, so I hope I’ll get a great deal for a top ten Qb.  

If 2019 when he was the third best Qb on points per game avg  is living in the past so be it, but when it indeed happens this season, one needs to catch up.  

Thanks. 

[Ray_T 587]

5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Not sure what rushing has to do with his passing yards, but in Brady's last 17 games, he threw for 4941 yards and 44 TD's (9 road games/8 home - like this year), while playing against 9 playoff teams.  Last year, the Bucs played playing the 6th hardest schedule in the NFL... they have the 3rd easiest schedule this year.  They have a full off-season to work together and added a legitimate pass catching RB - neither of which they had last year.  You think 59 more yards and 6 extra TD's isn't feasible?

it is certainly possible.

the real risk with Brady is his age and the heightened risk of injury as a result.   Lets be fully honest here.  I dont question his ability when fully healthy and performing at peak efficiency.

if you could guarantee the previously mentioned risk factors wont play a role this season, your estimate would likely even be conservative.   but at his age, its tough to project what you are projecting.

I fully agree, its not impossible.  he may have one more great year left.   its also possible he may not.

I'd probably rank him somewhere where Herbert, Tannehill and Stafford are ranked (give or take) to take that added risk into account.   And at his age, that risk is not insubstantial.

[Ray_T 587]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's reasonable.  I didn't have Prescott in my top 10 because I think he misses a couple games.  But early on.  I think it's fair to include him though because even if he misses like 2 games, his last 15 along with everyone else's will probably put him in the top 10.

fair comments.

also the teams in his division will all be better than they were last year.

in the end I think that affects Daks numbers as well.  there were a couple years where every Team in the division was terrible and Dak Feasted.

even if the defense is the same and the offense improves, thats still likely less time for Dak on the field (and less stats)   I'd rank him closer to the bottom of my top 12. 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

12 hours ago, Ray_T said:

it is certainly possible.

the real risk with Brady is his age and the heightened risk of injury as a result.   Lets be fully honest here.  I dont question his ability when fully healthy and performing at peak efficiency.

if you could guarantee the previously mentioned risk factors wont play a role this season, your estimate would likely even be conservative.   but at his age, its tough to project what you are projecting.

I fully agree, its not impossible.  he may have one more great year left.   its also possible he may not.

I'd probably rank him somewhere where Herbert, Tannehill and Stafford are ranked (give or take) to take that added risk into account.   And at his age, that risk is not insubstantial.

Totally agree with you.  The guy is 44 years old.  If someone wants to knock him back a bit because they think he'll miss games due to injury, I won't argue against that because it is a legit question mark.

Personally, I think he'll be fine.  He's never given anyone to think otherwise.  Outside of the ACL year, he's never missed a game due to injury.  Last year, he apparently played the whole year with a torn MCL.  So, he's actually even healthier this year on top having the ability to work with guys fully in the offseason.

I'll be perfectly happy drafting Brady in the area where Herbert, Tannehill, and Stafford go.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

17 hours ago, jrokh said:

That’s what I thought. Props to @tanatastic at least he’s got the courage of his convictions. I guess what you hear about Tampa People is true in your case at least…

That's what I thought, no webos.

[Ray_T 587]

7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Totally agree with you.  The guy is 44 years old.  If someone wants to knock him back a bit because they think he'll miss games due to injury, I won't argue against that because it is a legit question mark.

Personally, I think he'll be fine.  He's never given anyone to think otherwise.  Outside of the ACL year, he's never missed a game due to injury.  Last year, he apparently played the whole year with a torn MCL.  So, he's actually even healthier this year on top having the ability to work with guys fully in the offseason.

I'll be perfectly happy drafting Brady in the area where Herbert, Tannehill, and Stafford go.

Thats around the spot I got him last year.   but I also took a second QB (Stafford) because of the same concerns and did ride Brady into the championship game in that particular league.

I think he was the 7th or 8th QB off the board in that draft. (if my memory is correct)  

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Thats around the spot I got him last year.   but I also took a second QB (Stafford) because of the same concerns and did ride Brady into the championship game in that particular league.

I think he was the 7th or 8th QB off the board in that draft. (if my memory is correct)  

Nothing wrong with that approach if you were pleased with what you had and not thrilled with the remaining talent at the spot you got them.  I think you're in great shape with your QB situation.

In my main league, a keeper league, I have Mahomes and Allen... I have to throw one back.  We have a 2 QB league.  I'm taking Brady if he's there when I pick in the first round and be happy with 2 top 3 QB's.. again.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

On 8/12/2021 at 2:54 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

5k and 50 isn't grasping at straws.  I just posted above that in his last 17 games he threw for 4941 yards and 44 TD's.  I don't think 59 more yards and 6 TD's is unreasonable against an easier schedule.

You have Tom Brady…. IMPROVING next year? That’s bold. I’d be happy if he comes anywhere close to last years numbers. Father Time is struggling vs Brady no doubt, but he’s still undefeated.

[Ray_T 587]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Nothing wrong with that approach if you were pleased with what you had and not thrilled with the remaining talent at the spot you got them.  I think you're in great shape with your QB situation.

That was last year.   keeper league (keep 3)  so I need to redraft him this year if I'm gonna roll with the same strategy.

We shall see how it turns out.  I generally take what the draft gives me.   I'm not a guy that reaches for players all that often

With the season Brady had, its possible he goes earlier, but its also possible he goes later due to age.  In the end I suspect I'll be able to get him at the same point in the draft but I wont know until draft day. 

Last year everyone thought I was Nuts not to Keep Mahomes, but the draft capital I got made me think I could play a different strategy and do just as well.   So the Brady/Stafford duo was drafted late and it worked out for me.

dont get me wrong, I like Brady, but at this age, its especially important not to overpay.  If someone grabs him in round 3, they can have him.  My thought is once you get past the top 2-4 QB's there's generally no reason to reach for a QB because from a statistical perspective there is not a huge difference between a lot of them.   If I dont draft a QB this round, I can draft one that produces .5 fantasy points per game less next round.  Thats the rationale and when you look at other positions the dropoff is larger therefore giving you more of a reason to get yourself a WR or a RB.

Thats why I actually agreee with Weepaws regarding waiting to take a QB.   bottom line, there are very few QB's out there worth drafting early in the draft.

[Ray_T 587]

2 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You have Tom Brady…. IMPROVING next year? That’s bold. I’d be happy if he comes anywhere close to last years numbers. Father Time is struggling vs Brady no doubt, but he’s still undefeated.

True.  its just a question of whether his skill decline is offset by other factors.

There is no doubt, another year in the offense should give him a boost.  I think early in the year last year, he had  a few moments where he didnt look great and that (I felt) was due to the unfamiliarity with parts of the new system he was playing in.

he also seems to have an easier schedule.  so that should count for a lot with a guy like Brady.

I suspect he has one more good year in him.  but I'm not willing to reach and draft him early.  the risks are still substantial

[LoOnAtIk 75]

16 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

True.  its just a question of whether his skill decline is offset by other factors.

There is no doubt, another year in the offense should give him a boost.  I think early in the year last year, he had  a few moments where he didnt look great and that (I felt) was due to the unfamiliarity with parts of the new system he was playing in.

he also seems to have an easier schedule.  so that should count for a lot with a guy like Brady.

I suspect he has one more good year in him.  but I'm not willing to reach and draft him early.  the risks are still substantial

I hear what you’re saying but I still see that as extremely wishful thinking. Look at Brett Favre’s 1st year with Vikings vs the 2nd year. He was substantially better the first season then retired after the 2nd season. Father Time can strike quickly and swiftly.

[weepaws 2,452]

Favre first season with the Vikings was his best ff based on avg. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You have Tom Brady…. IMPROVING next year? That’s bold. I’d be happy if he comes anywhere close to last years numbers. Father Time is struggling vs Brady no doubt, but he’s still undefeated.

If you want to claim Father Time, that's fine and we can just agree to disagree, because people have been doubting Brady for the last 5 years and he's been in the Super Bowl in 4 of them and won 3.  Brady has defied Father Time and until Father Time claims victory, I'm going to back Brady.  So, barring Father Time... why wouldn't he improve?  What are the things that people say as to why any player should have a better season than the prior year?

• Another year in a system - Last year was is first year in Tampa in Arians' system, this is now year 2.
• Health - He played all of last year with a torn MCL that he had repaired and there's no mention of any injuries.
• Continuity - Every player on his offense, including his HC and OC are back - no exceptions... literally.
• Full off-season with reps - Last year there was no off-season, this year there is.

Other than him being 44, am I missing a reason why he wouldn't improve?  Also, am I really even saying he'll improve?  Like I noted, last year, in his last 17 games, he threw for 4941 yards.  Why is another 51 more yards a stretch?  In those 17 games, he had 44 TD's.  Is 6 TD's an improvement or could that not just be a by-product of having Brown for a full season and the addition of a pass catching RB?  By saying he's going to throw for 5k and 50, isn't all I'm really saying is that he'll post numbers similar to his last 17 games?

Seriously, am I missing something?  Other than him being 44 years old?

Brady had a higher completion% than the year before.  It was his 7th highest of his career.  He threw for 4,633 yards which is the 5th highest of his career.  He threw 40 TD passes, which is the 2nd most in his career... TD% was 3rd most.  His yards per attempt, at 7.6, was 9th best in his career, adjusted yards, 8th best.  Passer rating was 7th best.  He's clearly not slowing down.  He did that with no off-season.  He did that with a rookie at RT.  He did that with new RB showing up in August.  He did that with a new WR showing up in November.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Favre first season with the Vikings was his best ff based on avg. 

Just based on passing, it was his 3rd best.  I didn't check rushing because he only ran for 7 yards that year with Minnesota and no TD's.  I have him with 18.3 ppg that year and 19.72 in '95 and 18.7 in '96.  My guess is that '97 would be higher too if we counted his 187 yards and 1 TD rushing.

[weepaws 2,452]

I just checked n ff today stats for him, and that what it showed, that 2009 his first with the Vikings was his best ff avg.  

it shows that he avg 21 points in 2004, and 20 in 2009, and 20.1 in 2007, and 2009 he avg 21.4 , but it doesn’t go back farther then 2000 so that probably wasn’t his best ff season then   

But based on what the other poster said I found that interesting.  

Just think with his surrounding talent that Brady has I don’t see him losing to much from last season, it’s just amazing when you see that his 40 tds where his second highest in a season at his age. 

But I think he’ll have a tough time repeating 25 points per game, I think that could be a little lower this next season . 

 

[Ray_T 587]

10 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I hear what you’re saying but I still see that as extremely wishful thinking. Look at Brett Favre’s 1st year with Vikings vs the 2nd year. He was substantially better the first season then retired after the 2nd season. Father Time can strike quickly and swiftly.

Totally valid point.  when I drafted him last year, I had  a second  QB to account  for that possible scenario. I would suggest anyone thinking of Drafting him this year should do the same

[LoOnAtIk 75]

FWIW Favre got wrecked in that NFC championship vs Saints and then following season he ended up spraining his shoulder around week 12 or so and missed a few games. Still same thing applies to Brady. He’s a statue back there if he takes 1 really good hit, who knows?

[weepaws 2,452]

Even those non statues can take that one good hit and whammy . 

I remember when a poster said one can’t count injuries they can happen to anyone. That would include Brady. 

[tanatastic 2,061]

I’d be really shocked if Brady matches his output from last season. Too often people just copy paste last year then add/subtract better/worse factors. It’s not that simple and football is not nearly as predictable as people wish it was. You cant just say well he had X last year and his team got better and schedule easier so he will do X+ this year. It’s very rare to throw 40+Td in consecutive seasons. He’s playing with house money anyway, I thought he would break down like 4 years ago and he just keeps going. 

[weepaws 2,452]

Easier to hit that 40 td mark with one extra reg season game, but I don’t see him avg 25 points per game. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

On 8/14/2021 at 4:46 PM, tanatastic said:

I’d be really shocked if Brady matches his output from last season. Too often people just copy paste last year then add/subtract better/worse factors. It’s not that simple and football is not nearly as predictable as people wish it was. You cant just say well he had X last year and his team got better and schedule easier so he will do X+ this year. It’s very rare to throw 40+Td in consecutive seasons. He’s playing with house money anyway, I thought he would break down like 4 years ago and he just keeps going. 

My perception only, I didn't look it up, but don't you think that in a lot (if not all - where you can't just copy/paste), of those cases had something big change between the two seasons?  Meaning, new OC (because the former one got an HC job), different supporting cast because someone signed elsewhere, a player (or two), on the team having a career year, or some OLmen leave?  I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that something like that happened in a large bulk of the instances.  None of which happened this year with Tampa.  Everyone on offense is back... the WR's, TE's, RB's, and OLine, as well as their HC and OC.

Just as an example (because a friend sent these to me last year - literally a copy/past [pun intended ], from his email):

• Peyton threw 55 TD's in 2013, but threw 39 in 2014.  In 2013, Eric Decker had 87/1288/11... left to go to NY and Welker's career had it a wall.
• Mahomes threw 50 in 2018, but threw 26 in 2019.  In 2019, he threw 100 less passes because he missed 2+ games.  They also cut ties with Kareem Hunt.  On top of that, they went from the 24th ranked defense to the 7th.
• Brady in 2007, Brady threw 50 TD's but tore his ACL in the first week of 2008.
• Peyton threw 49 TD's in 2004, but only 28 in 2005.  The defense improving from 19th to 2nd probably played a big role in that.  Stokely had a career year in 2004 and came back to Earth in 2005.
• In 2011, Brees threw 46... then 43 the following year.  I'm calling that good.  The following year, 2013, he threw 39.  Looks like Colston turning 30 was literally a big deal and 2012 was his last hurrah.  Also, the Saints went from the 31st ranked defense to #2.

Tampa had the #8 defense last year.  Improving to say #3 or #4 shouldn't change much.  Of the 5 starting OL, only one is 30 years old (Jensen - turned 30 in May), and he's in a contract year this year.  Evans, Godwin, and Miller are all 28 and younger.  Of their 4 RB's, 3 are under 27... 2 are in their rookie contract.  Gronk having the whole year off clearly helped him and he played all 16 games last year.  Sure, that could be the outlier, but he's not expected to carry the same load as last year.  Howard will get hurt again this year, but that theoretically shouldn't happen until December.  Brate is now 30.  A hole I guess you could poke would be the TE's, but the Bucs do go 4 to 5 deep at the WR position.  Any drop in production there, can be picked up from the receivers.  Plus, they added a pass catching RB who can pick up the slack as well.

On top of all of that, Arians/Leftwich run a pass heavy offense.  They don't try to focus on the run... it's just a change up or when needed.  No one in Tampa had a career year last year.  Yeah, Evans had 13 TD's, but he's had 12 two other times.  His yards and receptions rank as 2nd and 3rd lowest of his 7 year career.  Godwin's numbers were much lower than 2019.  It was Brate and Howard's worst years.  It was one of Brown's worst years.  To go one step further, they didn't even have a full off-season last year and had to learn on the fly.  This year, they now will have 2+ months instead of 2+ weeks.  Everything is pointing to this year being better than last year.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

All of that said, yesterday had a draft.  I got Tannehill in the 10th round of a 10-team league (1 keeper per team).  He was the 12th QB off the board.  Dak went in 8th round as the 9th QB off the board.

[joneo 529]

Tannehill 2021:

4700 yards

35 TD

6 Rushing TDs

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Tannehill yikes. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,588]

1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Tannehill yikes. 

Had my pick of Brady, Tannehill and Stafford when I drafted QB. Took Tannehill. FML

[Ray_T 587]

the stat that has me concerned is the number of sacks and hits hes taking.

to me this means the line isn't getting the job done.   That's usually the kiss of death for a QB.

When Tannehills numbers went bad in Miami the same issue was present.

I have not had the chance to watch him play this year, but giving up a pile of QB hits and sacks to the Jets likely means there may be an issue there.

[tanatastic 2,061]

His goose is cooked til the wrs come back healthy. 

[makindollaz 40]

A month ago if you had told me I’d be starting Heinicke over Tannehill, and not because Tannehill was hurt, I would have said you were crazy.

[weepaws 2,452]

I did say Tannehill was Qb to stream. And that I doubt he would match his avg of 25 points per game this season. 

Live and learn.  

 

[ZeroTolerance 582]

On 10/4/2021 at 1:29 PM, Hardcore troubadour said:

Had my pick of Brady, Tannehill and Stafford when I drafted QB. Took Tannehill. FML

Damn, I'm kicking myself for Tanny over Stafford, but passing on Brady? Yeah, that hurts. 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

On 10/5/2021 at 9:25 PM, weepaws said:

I did say Tannehill was Qb to stream. And that I doubt he would match his avg of 25 points per game this season. 

Live and learn.  

 

Yup. I was preaching about selling high preseason. I had him pegged as overrated as well.

What I once thought was a hyper efficient QB now I’m not so sure. His decision making has been very suspect this season.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

On 10/6/2021 at 2:55 PM, ZeroTolerance said:

Damn, I'm kicking myself for Tanny over Stafford, but passing on Brady? Yeah, that hurts. 

Brady was always a tier above Tannehill and Stafford for me.

[jrokh 567]

New OC, both his star receivers hurt. I would give it a little more time before jumping to conclusions about Tanny. 

[huskyhater75 242]

On 7/31/2021 at 12:50 PM, tanatastic said:

Just some fun facts about Tannehill who is currently drafted in the 9th round. Since taking over for the Titans as the starter 26 games ago he has scored the 3rd most points at QB. He RAN for 7 tds last year and passed for 33 for a total of 40. Yes, 40. That’s on a run first team with Henry who ran for 2kyds and has had the number of touches that usually means a regression the following year, plus they just aquired Julio Jones. 
 

He’s the steal of the draft at QB this season. He’s being drafted behind annual bum Matt Stafford who hasn’t even tossed 30td in 6 years and Jalen Hurts who had maybe 2 good games. It’s larceny getting him as your starter in even rnd 7 let alone 9 but the later the better.

Underrated? You're talking about Justin Herbert. He had the misfortune of playing in the forever-trashed on Pac 12 (just so the NCAA honks can overrate the sec/east coast schools) and he's underrated in the NFL-the bias continues. I'll take him over Tanny any day.

[weepaws 2,452]

5 total tds for Herbert today.