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tanatastic

Ryan Tannehill, the most underrated starting QB in FF.

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you know what. Took a little bit longer look and ESPN had a nice piece on the Titans. it I’m in on Ryan. Especially where you can get him. 
 

Feel like he can be like Prescott only at a value where his team defense is absolutely dreadful which should keep him throwing

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Like that article said, I think they will throw more. 

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honestly Tannehill may be a good option to take at his ADP.  I'd consider pairing him with another QB (also taken late)

The main thing about Tannehill is that if he racks up a good size lead, he wont go out in the second half and add a lot to it.  The team will give em a huge dose of the run game.  That's their signature finishing move.

As such, he wont get those massively huge fantasy games unless its a shootout.

Thats one of the main reasons he is underrated.  He doesnt get those huge games because the team doesnt play that way.

nothing wrong with it.  its probably a winning strategy for the team.  Just not the best for fantasy (unless you are the Henry owner)

That being said, if you dont get a top QB hes a fine option at his ADP.

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Does that count for last also Ray, Tannehill was the 9th highest scorer at Qb based on avg points per game. 

And in 7 out of 16 games he played, he out produced his avg.  

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5 hours ago, weepaws said:

And in 7 out of 16 games he played, he out produced his avg.

That's common sense... because that's how you get "an average".

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5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's common sense... because that's how you get "an average".

I was axually thinking about pointing out that only 7 out of 16 games being above average is actually kind of a bad thing, since you would expect 8 out of 16 given the definition of "average."  But Tannehill only bettered his average 7 out of 16 times, which means he probably had a couple of really big outliers that dragged up his average...

...but then I realized it was weepaws, and it wasn't worth being banned for life by breaking my vow to not engage with his nonsense.  So I'm glad someone else figured it out.

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10 hours ago, weepaws said:

Does that count for last also Ray, Tannehill was the 9th highest scorer at Qb based on avg points per game. 

And in 7 out of 16 games he played, he out produced his avg.  

all I am saying is he would put up better numbers if the team didnt run the ball to protect the lead the way that they do.

This is one reason why hes underrated as he is.

other teams put on the gas and run up the score and pad the stats when they get a decent lead.  Thats Generally not the way the Titans play.   They run the ball down your throat and kill the clock.

good for getting wins.  bad for QB and WR stats.

so every once in a while the titans will win big with all the second half yards and points going to the run game (for the most part) and Tanehill may only throw for 220 yards and a TD even though the score is a lopsided win.

Think of Flacco back in the old days of the Baltimore Ravens.   At the time he was a very good QB, but the team was a run first team so he never got the credit he deserved.

Tanehill is the same situation.  he puts up better stats than Flacco ever did but there is no doubt he could easily be top 5 if the situation was right.   problem is.... its not.

dont get me wrong.  I love Tanehill.   a couple years back it was me that predicted he'd be starting by midseason when Tennessee got him out of Miami.

Hes a great QB, it is the system to a large extent that limits him.    And with what may be the best Run game in the NFL I'd argue the Titans do it for good reason.

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I don’t see him being limited because of the strong run game that the Titans have because of Henry. , I think it’s been a help to him and why he’s been a qb1 based on avg points per game the last two seasons.  

I think he was what we’ve seen , a low qb1 , and he might be lower if not for Henry.  

So based on him being a low qb1 on avg his last two seasons he’s a top Qb. 

After all everyone is looking for a qb1. 

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

Tanehill is the same situation.  he puts up better stats than Flacco ever did but there is no doubt he could easily be top 5 if the situation was right.   problem is.... its not.

I’d argue with Henry coming off 400 touches and getting Julio, the situation is more right than it has been for the passing game to make a leap. Top 7 is well within range of outcomes again (it’s where I would predict he finishes) and with the passing game upside a top 5 finish is not at all crazy. 

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I don’t see Tannehill being a top five Qb. 

I think without the strong run game he might actually be lower in his avg per game. 

I think the run game foe him is a much needed help.  

 

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8 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

I’d argue with Henry coming off 400 touches and getting Julio, the situation is more right than it has been for the passing game to make a leap. Top 7 is well within range of outcomes again (it’s where I would predict he finishes) and with the passing game upside a top 5 finish is not at all crazy. 

There is no doubt the addition at WR likely means more yards.  and a top 5 finish isnt super crazy because the offense has more ways to beat a defense.

Thats a good thing and it brings the offense more into balance than it ever has been.   I suspect everyone's numbers will go up a bit because the offense will score on a higher % of the drives but that will be partially offset by the game script if they are playing in the second half with a considerable lead.

Tanehill should be drafted and rostered.  I'm not disputing this at all. 

I was explaining why he was underrated and I stand by those comments.

if 6 or 7 QB's are off the board and you can get him reasonably late in your draft he should be a slam dunk.

he has top 5 upside, but not consistently. 

if hes (for argument sake) on average the 8th or 9th QB off the board, whoever is getting him IS getting a bargain at that price.

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3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

if hes (for argument sake) on average the 8th or 9th QB off the board, whoever is getting him IS getting a bargain at that price.

You seem to agree that top 5, while not crazy, isn't really a likely outcome, so I would assume you agree with him being ranked as the QB7 or so...?

And if you take him as the QB8, that's a "bargain"?

lol

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7 isnt a crazy ranking for the guy.  I havnt finished my first QB rankings, but I figured hed be somewhere in that general range give or take.

Keep in mind if you think hes the 5th best fantasy QB and the rest of the world thinks hes the 9th best, the difference in ranking can amount to multiple rounds.

My argument is why pay the price of a cadillac when you can get the same player for the price of a Honda Civic.

this is a player where ADP is something you want to keep a close eye on because that may actually tell you where you need to draft him if you want to be sure to get him(assuming of course that you are targeting him).

 

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3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

this is a player where ADP is something you want to keep a close eye on because that may actually tell you where you need to draft him if you want to be sure to get him(assuming of course that you are targeting him).

 

I’ll be targeting him in early rnd 8 if I haven’t taken a QB by that point. The cat has been let out of the bag somewhat and he will go right after that if I don’t take him, in which case I’ll be left with my next tier of guys that I’m not as excited about.

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Just now, tanatastic said:

I’ll be targeting him in early rnd 8 if I haven’t taken a QB by that point. The cat has been let out of the bag somewhat and he will go right after that if I don’t take him, in which case I’ll be left with my next tier of guys that I’m not as excited about.

its a fair comment.  but the ADP may yet move significantly as the hype train moves.

that being said, there are a lot of QB's ranked between #6 and #12 who are likely interchangeable and could individually go earlier or later depending on various factors at the draft table.

but I think the Titans offense is gonna be pretty damn good no matter how you slice it, and that sentiment will only get stronger as we get closer to the regular season.

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I think Tannehill falls outside of the top 5.  I think Brady is a lock at #1, throwing for over 5k and 50 TD's.  After him, I think it's safe to say Mahomes, Allen, Murray, and Lamar (in no particular order), round out the top 5.  I think Tannehill will be in a group among Herbert, Rodgers, Mayfield, and Wilson (again, no particular order), to round out the top 10.

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38 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Brady is a lock at #1, throwing for over 5k and 50 TD's.

Didnt you say that last year?

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Just now, jrokh said:

Didnt you say that last year?

Pretty sure my final projection was 4500 yards and 42 TD.

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Pretty sure my final projection was 4500 yards and 42 TD.

whatever, I'm not looking it up. No chance Brady hits either of those marks, but it's nice to have your homer goggles working overtime so early in the pre-season...

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45 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Tannehill falls outside of the top 5.  I think Brady is a lock at #1, throwing for over 5k and 50 TD's.  After him, I think it's safe to say Mahomes, Allen, Murray, and Lamar (in no particular order), round out the top 5.  I think Tannehill will be in a group among Herbert, Rodgers, Mayfield, and Wilson (again, no particular order), to round out the top 10.

Brady doesn’t run ever and is approximately 57 years old. The dude is focking amazing, there’s just no doubt about it, but you’re off your rocker here

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57 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Brady is a lock at #1, throwing for over 5k and 50 TD's.

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Even if he hits that, he'll be 1000 yards and 10 TDs shy of Mahomes.

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2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Brady doesn’t run ever and is approximately 57 years old. The dude is focking amazing, there’s just no doubt about it, but you’re off your rocker here

Not sure what rushing has to do with his passing yards, but in Brady's last 17 games, he threw for 4941 yards and 44 TD's (9 road games/8 home - like this year), while playing against 9 playoff teams.  Last year, the Bucs played playing the 6th hardest schedule in the NFL... they have the 3rd easiest schedule this year.  They have a full off-season to work together and added a legitimate pass catching RB - neither of which they had last year.  You think 59 more yards and 6 extra TD's isn't feasible?

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2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Didnt you say that last year?

 

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Pretty sure my final projection was 4500 yards and 42 TD.

 

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

whatever, I'm not looking it up. No chance Brady hits either of those marks, but it's nice to have your homer goggles working overtime so early in the pre-season...

I was wrong, I didn't say 4500 and 42, I said 4700 and 42.  I was pretty close.

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30 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Not sure what rushing has to do with his passing yards, but in Brady's last 17 games, he threw for 4941 yards and 44 TD's (9 road games/8 home - like this year), while playing against 9 playoff teams.  Last year, the Bucs played playing the 6th hardest schedule in the NFL... they have the 3rd easiest schedule this year.  They have a full off-season to work together and added a legitimate pass catching RB - neither of which they had last year.  You think 59 more yards and 6 extra TD's isn't feasible?

Aren’t we talking him being QB1 in fantasy? Rushing is quite important then. I’m sure he’ll have a good year but you’re crazy if you’re putting him in as the top fantasy QB

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11 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Aren’t we talking him being QB1 in fantasy? Rushing is quite important then. I’m sure he’ll have a good year but you’re crazy if you’re putting him in as the top fantasy QB

I gotchya.  Yeah, but Brady's been good for 2 or 3 rushing TD's the last couple years, so I'm thinking he'll do that again.  I think some of the bigger rushing QB's will run a bit less and throw a bit more because they're a little more experienced.  If Brady throws for 5k and 50, with 20 points rushing (had 21 last year), that'll put him at 24.7 fpg (tied with Murray at #2), and 1.1 ppg below Allen.  But, as I said, I think they throw a bit more and run a bit less, reallocating their numbers and reducing their fantasy output.

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Here’s how I’d rank them:

1. Mahomes

2. Allen

3. Murray

4. Prescott

5. Rodgers

6. Brady

7. Jackson

8. Wilson

9. Herbert

10. Tannehill

11. Stafford 

12. Burrow

13. Hurts

14. Ryan

15. Lawrence 

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7 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Brady throws for 5k and 50,

Why not 7000 and 70? As long as you are grasping for straws make it a long one. 

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3 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

Here’s how I’d rank them:

1. Mahomes

2. Allen

3. Murray

4. Prescott

5. Rodgers

6. Brady

7. Jackson

8. Wilson

9. Herbert

10. Tannehill

11. Stafford 

12. Burrow

13. Hurts

14. Ryan

15. Lawrence 

That's reasonable.  I didn't have Prescott in my top 10 because I think he misses a couple games.  But early on.  I think it's fair to include him though because even if he misses like 2 games, his last 15 along with everyone else's will probably put him in the top 10.

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3 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Why not 7000 and 70? As long as you are grasping for straws make it a long one. 

5k and 50 isn't grasping at straws.  I just posted above that in his last 17 games he threw for 4941 yards and 44 TD's.  I don't think 59 more yards and 6 TD's is unreasonable against an easier schedule.

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I’ll take that action…

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Or, this is the year that the portrait of Tom Brady growing older in his attic gets destroyed in a fire, and Brady collapses into a pile of dust.

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11 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I’ll take that action…

I posted what I think, you post what you think.  Let's see who's closer.

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11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Or, this is the year that the portrait of Tom Brady growing older in his attic gets destroyed in a fire, and Brady collapses into a pile of dust.

I'll pose that challenge to you too.  I posted what I think, you post what you think.  Let's see who's closer.

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22 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

Here’s how I’d rank them:

1. Mahomes

2. Allen

3. Murray

4. Prescott

5. Rodgers

6. Brady

7. Jackson

8. Wilson

9. Herbert

10. Tannehill

11. Stafford 

12. Burrow

13. Hurts

14. Ryan

15. Lawrence 

Stafford will replace Herbert, Herbert falls out of the top ten, and Stafford joins the top ten 

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I posted what I think, you post what you think.  Let's see who's closer.

If we don’t wager, I won’t remember until the next hyperbolic homer-centric prediction. 

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16 minutes ago, jrokh said:

If we don’t wager, I won’t remember until the next hyperbolic homer-centric prediction. 

You want to avoid going on the record.  I get it.  I would be too if I were you.

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21 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Stafford will replace Herbert, Herbert falls out of the top ten, and Stafford joins the top ten 

Is it possible we’re living in the past on Stafford? It’s been a few years since he was a fantasy QB1. I get that he’s on the Rams now but it’s also been a few years since the Rams were fantasy gold.

I’m just not sure about the hype, though if he comes at a good deal I’m buying

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9 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

You want to avoid going on the record.  I get it.  I would be too if I were you.

I already am ‘on the record’ refuting your delusion. Now if you want to make it interesting, make it matter  I am all in. Otherwise your just another fanboy writing a check your butt can’t cash…

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5 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Is it possible we’re living in the past on Stafford? It’s been a few years since he was a fantasy QB1.

He was the QB4 when he got hurt in 2019.

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I get that he’s on the Rams now but it’s also been a few years since the Rams were fantasy gold.

In that same year, Kupp and Woods were the #4 and #14 WRs.

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