Dynasty rookie draft question

[Kopy 489]

Scenario. You're pretty solid at QB, RB, & TE. You really need a WR or 2, as that's your weak position. You pick later in the draft (10 out of 12). 

Do you grab the best WR available. (There is a couple left you like). However, Trevor Lawrence has fallen and is still there. Do you say " f'it " and take Lawrence (starter is Aaron Rodgers, no backup). Or do you stick with your need and draft WR?

 

[AxeElf 787]

QBs aren't a particularly valuable commodity in fantasy football any more, so I'd address your area of need at WR.

[DrG 94]

 do you typically keep a backup qb rostered? Do you think 2nd or 3rd tier rookie wrs will be first year usable? Will you have and want Rodgers next year?

if you can get the draft #1 qb practically free, that would seem hard to pass on unless you don’t think he’ll be special.

My dynasty league starts 2 qbs 3 wrs with 23 player roster not including IR. I usually overweight qb rb, usually able to get flexworthy wrs

[Bier Meister 1,512]

I would wonder which particular players you are debating, and if your draft is a snake (higher 2nd rd pick) vs standard dynasty (1.10, 2.10, etc)

[polecatt 399]

I had that sort of scenario last season on my dynasty team.

My first 3 picks were WRs. I ended up with the best rookie QB too, Justin Herbert with a later pick.

Definitely draft WRs high if that's your need

[weepaws 2,452]

I would take the WRs.  

[nobody 2,032]

Do you have a snake draft?

It probably depends on the WRs available.  Assume chase, waddle, devonte are all long gone.  I'd take Batemon over Lawrence.  Otherwise, if it's a snake draft, I'd take Lawrence.  I happen to think he'll be a great one.  Then you can get Amon-Ra St Brown.

In dynasty, I'm more apt to just take the best player regardless of position.  A good QB can pay dividends for 15 years.  

 

[nobody 2,032]

It also depends on the roster size.  If you have deep rosters, and there aren't a lot of qbs on the wire, take Lawrence.

[Kopy 489]

12 teams, 24 man roster. Nfl style draft 1 through 12, 1 through 12, 1 through12. Like nobody said earlier. It's tough to pass on maybe the best QB prospect since Luck. 

The reason I believe he might fall is because most teams have 2 to 3 QB'S already. And we have quit a few 49er fans also, so I'm thinking Lance might go before Lawrence.

 

 

[nobody 2,032]

If most teams are carrying 2 or 3 QBs, I'd take Lawrence.  That means there are probably 25-28 QBs rostered so you're looking at a pretty sparse selection.  The other thing to consider is this draft isn't very good.  There are a ton of slot receivers...  Would you trade a potential Andrew Luck for a potential what?  Cole Beasley?  Unless you think one of these 180 pound jitterbug types is going to be the next Antonio Brown or Tyreek Hill, why do it?  

[DrG 94]

Expecting similar choice in my 2 qb dynasty league. Najee, Etienne, Chase, and at least 3 maybe 4 of the qbs will be off the board.

I pick 8th and the choice may be between Mac Jones, Pitts, Waddle and/or Javonte Williams. If Pitts is there he might be hard to pass up but Jones could be the best call there.

[weepaws 2,452]

J Williams right call, and best call

i would still take the wr over the Qb.  

[DrG 94]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

J Williams right call, and best call

i would still take the wr over the Qb.  

I ordinarily would too but this league weights to qb scoring A homer will likely take Lance and if Williams is taken before me and he might be, both Fields and Jones might still be on the board.

[weepaws 2,452]

If Williams is available he would be the one, of not and Pitts is still available, I would take him next. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

I'm not high on this year's draft.  If you need WR's and either Smith, Waddle, or Chase aren't there (which I doubt they are), then I'd try to trade down or out.  I doubt Lawrence will be there.  If I had to guess, I'd say the top 7 draft picks will be something like the following...

1. Harris
2. Chase
3. Etienne
4. Pitts
5. Smith
6. Waddle
7. Williams

That would leave you Toney, Lawrence, and Wilson as the next 3 on the board.  If I were in this position, I'd either take Toney if he fell to me, or trade down or out if he isn't there.   If a trade isn't possible, either QB is fine.  Then, I'd look to trade every following pick because I don't think any of the rest of the WR's are likely to become fantasy starters at any point this year or next.

[weepaws 2,452]

I think Williams at number seven is a silly move.  

He could be the best of that group going forward.  

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

No way do I put Waddle that high

[Ray_T 587]

On 8/2/2021 at 9:46 AM, Kopy said:

12 teams, 24 man roster. Nfl style draft 1 through 12, 1 through 12, 1 through12. Like nobody said earlier. It's tough to pass on maybe the best QB prospect since Luck. 

The reason I believe he might fall is because most teams have 2 to 3 QB'S already. And we have quit a few 49er fans also, so I'm thinking Lance might go before Lawrence.

 

 

initially I was on Axe Elfs side saying QB's arent that valuable, but with every team keeping 2-3 QB, that may be a game changer.

especially with you having Rodgers who, likely only has a couple years left.

I still think if a top tier WR drops, you take him and fill your biggest need.    But if that doesnt happen, Rodgers is at a point in his career where you need to think about a succession plan.

If Lawrence seriously looks like the next coming of Luck by midseason,  you could look at trading Rodgers away at that point to get that WR you need.  if he doesnt, you hold him because rodgers isnt getting any younger anyhow.

----------

That being said in a serpentine draft, you could get Lawrence and then after  the turn there is a chance one or two of the WR's you are looking to take at the 10 slot may still be around  after the turn, so you can take em then.  if you are really lucky, the guy you wanna take at 10 is still on the board at 15.   while unlikely, its not impossible.  Maybe your QB pick starts a run on rookie QBs.

At the end of the day its all about who can help you right now to some degree.   If you are getting the 4th or 5th WR on the board what are the chances they are helping you this year anyhow?  most of those guys are not productive until year 2 or 3. 

obviously if one of the top 3 WR prospects somehow drops to you it is wise to consider taking them instead.    once again, it is unlikely this happens, but not impossible.   so keep an open mind.  in any draft there is usually one player who drops and if it happens to be one of your fav's then you're good to go!

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

12 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

No way do I put Waddle that high

Interesting.  In my personal rankings, I have him the #1WR.  I just listed players based on OP's expectations.  He said he thinks Lawrence will be there when he picks at #10.  I'm assuming that no other QB would be taken either.  So I picked 7 guys (not QB's), to be drafted to fit his expected model if what he thinks will come to fruition.

In my keeper league (people usually keep 5 guys), that is a 2QB league, I'm hoping to snap up Waddle in the 3rd round.  Of the WR's, I have zero faith in the Eagles offense or Hurts.  In fact, I think people are foolish for drafting Hurts where they are because while he may put up good fantasy numbers, I don't even know if he'll be the starter past Week 5.  On top of that, their OLine is a mess.  They have older players and injured players.  They have virtually no continuity.  Last year, they started 14 different guys on their OLine.  To add to that, we hear Smith is even banged up a bit.  I like Smith as a talent, but the situation isn't very appealing.

Chase appears to be in a good situation, but like Philly, the Bengals OLine is awful.  They got their QB knocked out halfway through the season and they didn't really get much better.  They also have Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.  With Burrow, Boyd's 16-game projected season was 110/1136/5 (receptions and yards were on pace for career highs).  Tee Higgins was on pace for a 76/1118/7 season. Boyd is locked in for 2 years AFTER this one.  Higgins has 1 more.  Chase is going to be a part of a 3-headed monster (appears to be a great one at that), in Cincy.  They only have 1 ball.

Tua hasn't shown he's anything special, but their OLine is good and their backfield is solid.  They also have a good defense.  They're young across the board because of all those draft picks, so the next few years should keep that core well in tact.  What other receiver is going via for any targets over Waddle?  Wilson?  Fuller?  Parker?  None of them are any good.  Waddle will probably their go-to-guy on Day 1.  Tua has much more upside than Hurts and he's shown that he can play.  Now, how good he is, is another matter.  But, for now, he's going to be "the guy" and at the very least, he's good enough to get Waddle the ball.

[Kopy 489]

11 hours ago, Ray_T said:

initially I was on Axe Elfs side saying QB's arent that valuable, but with every team keeping 2-3 QB, that may be a game changer.

especially with you having Rodgers who, likely only has a couple years left.

I still think if a top tier WR drops, you take him and fill your biggest need.    But if that doesnt happen, Rodgers is at a point in his career where you need to think about a succession plan.

If Lawrence seriously looks like the next coming of Luck by midseason,  you could look at trading Rodgers away at that point to get that WR you need.  if he doesnt, you hold him because rodgers isnt getting any younger anyhow.

----------

That being said in a serpentine draft, you could get Lawrence and then after  the turn there is a chance one or two of the WR's you are looking to take at the 10 slot may still be around  after the turn, so you can take em then.  if you are really lucky, the guy you wanna take at 10 is still on the board at 15.   while unlikely, its not impossible.  Maybe your QB pick starts a run on rookie QBs.

At the end of the day its all about who can help you right now to some degree.   If you are getting the 4th or 5th WR on the board what are the chances they are helping you this year anyhow?  most of those guys are not productive until year 2 or 3. 

obviously if one of the top 3 WR prospects somehow drops to you it is wise to consider taking them instead.    once again, it is unlikely this happens, but not impossible.   so keep an open mind.  in any draft there is usually one player who drops and if it happens to be one of your fav's then you're good to go!

That's my debate. Take the 4th or 5th best WR just because I need one. Or take the #1 QB. But not the #1 QB just because he was drafted first. But maybe a legit, actual once a decade #1QB?

My best guess is TBay's top 7 is accurate, just a different order. 

#8 is a solid team, no real needs other than maybe QB. A big 49er fan, plus Garoppolo is his starter. Which is where my Lance pick could come in.

And the #9 team is strong at QB, but needs a RB. So I'm thinking the jets kid there. 

 

[weepaws 2,452]

I think Fuller isn’t bad, but I’m not so sure I see a wr1 on the Dolphins this season, but for the future yeah I would agree Waddle is the one to own. 

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

I would easily take Michael Carter, trey sermon, Justin fields, trey lance, etc over waddle.

Waddle screams bust to me and would have to be available late 2nd round to be considered.

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

1 hour ago, Kopy said:

That's my debate. Take the 4th or 5th best WR just because I need one. Or take the #1 QB. But not the #1 QB just because he was drafted first. But maybe a legit, actual once a decade #1QB?

My best guess is TBay's top 7 is accurate, just a different order. 

#8 is a solid team, no real needs other than maybe QB. A big 49er fan, plus Garoppolo is his starter. Which is where my Lance pick could come in.

And the #9 team is strong at QB, but needs a RB. So I'm thinking the jets kid there. 

 

Always take the best player. You can trade for need as the playoffs approach.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

2 hours ago, Kopy said:

That's my debate. Take the 4th or 5th best WR just because I need one. Or take the #1 QB. But not the #1 QB just because he was drafted first. But maybe a legit, actual once a decade #1QB?

My best guess is TBay's top 7 is accurate, just a different order. 

#8 is a solid team, no real needs other than maybe QB. A big 49er fan, plus Garoppolo is his starter. Which is where my Lance pick could come in.

And the #9 team is strong at QB, but needs a RB. So I'm thinking the jets kid there. 

 

Personally, I wouldn't have a problem taking Lawrence, Fields, or Jones with that pick.  Yeah, you have Rodgers, but he's almost 40 and I think he's going to retire soon.  I don't think it'll hurt to have a guy waiting in the wings.  If you need a WR, I think Toney is the only guy who'll make it to you.  If you don't want a QB and Toney isn't available, trade the pick.  I'm sure there's someone who will want the pick.  Get a 2nd rounder and a 1st next year for it.

In another thread, @nobody was posting stuff about Josh Palmer.  If you traded 1.10 for an extra 2nd (and a 2022 first), scoop up Palmer with that pick.  Maybe you can get him and Moore in the 2nd.

[nobody 2,032]

Vouche.  The only receivers I really liked in this draft were Chase, Batemon, Pitts, and Josh Palmer.  If you want to talk small guys, Elijah Moore is very good too, but I'm not a big fan of small receivers. 

I was in a very similar situation to the OP when I drafted in May.  My league is pretty damn deep though so that may have skewed my perception.  14 teams and there are 47 QBs rostered.  Someone even picked up Blake Bottles during Rodgers dramafest.

I have Rodgers and Garoppolo, and in May I needed to at least entertain the idea of Rodgers retiring so I traded up from 1.12 to 1.09 for Lawrence.  Then I traded up to the back of round 2 for Josh Palmer.

We also give 6 points per passing TD, so QBs have more value.