Hey 12 Hole Compadres, Let's Solidify A Plan !

[fatguylittlecoat 13]

I'm mocked out... I've discovered I like going RB, RB then WR, WR.  I tried going WR/RB or vice versa but the pickings on RB at the 3rd and 4th round leaves me with Darrel Henderson Jr or similar.  I've scooped up RB's at 12th / 13th pick such as Ekeler, Najee, Aaron Jones and Chubb and come back with Keenan Allen, Robert Woods or occasionally C.D. Lamb.  I like getting another RB in 5th or 6th round and my best scenario is when Justin Hebert is still around in the sixth so I can pick up a Myhles Gaskin, Jevonte Williams or Raheem Mostert or similar in the 5th.  I picked up Lamar Jackson in the 5th in one mock but the cupboard was empty for RB's in the 6th.  IF ANYONE HAS ANY GREAT IDEAS ON HANDLING THE 12 HOLE SPOT IN THE FIRST SIX ROUNDS, PLEASE SHARE.  

[polecatt 401]

You could always do the old reliable, just draft the best available player

[fatguylittlecoat 13]

It's about a 23 pick wait until the next round so you could make an argument that Patrick Mahomes is one of the best playera and you don't see him going into at least the 3rd round.  

[polecatt 401]

33 minutes ago, fatguylittlecoat said:

It's about a 23 pick wait until the next round so you could make an argument that Patrick Mahomes is one of the best playera and you don't see him going into at least the 3rd round.  

Your call man, whoever you think the best pick available is, that's who you take.

Isn't that how it always ends up any way?

Do people really use these strategies and stick to them?

I know I never really have. On the kind of rare occasion that I do try to follow a specific plan, the draft always goes much different than I would have expected, and I just end up going best available any way.

The best team I've ever had in redraft was when I took a WR and QB with my first two picks, from the 11th spot. Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper in 2004. I completely went against my plan. I was going to take another WR, but when Culpepper was there, I couldn't pass him up. He had over 5000 yards and 41 TDs that season.

Over the years though, I've changed, and it's very unlikely I would take a QB that early, although I wouldn't completely rule it out. Pretty much every time I've won my league, I've had a top notch QB who has a season for the ages.

[Serenity Now 44]

You never know who will be the better player but come middle of the season rbs will be at a higher premium than wrs. I go rb early and often and it rarely lets me down. 

[weepaws 2,457]

12 pick or non ppr 14 teams, if I have the  12/14 pick, I’ll go wr/rb. 

And I use that art of drafting from the last spot, until I feel like I need to address one of those two slots more, then I might go rb/rb or wr/ wr.  

But I don’t even look at Qb or Te or Kickers or Def until double digits. 

And I’m one that does indeed stick to my strategy, but my personal rankings might change as the draft is going based on the other owners teams. 

[fatguylittlecoat 13]

I guess I see bigger gap between an Ekeler , Aaron Jones or Najee to Henderson Jr than I do D.K. / Diggs to Keenan Allen or CD Lamb who I have a man crush on.  There's only one Mock I was not able to get Lamb in the 3rd / 4th.  ENJOY THE STEELERS / COWBOYS GAME TONIGHT  !

[AxeElf 787]

53 minutes ago, fatguylittlecoat said:

I guess I see bigger gap between an Ekeler , Aaron Jones or Najee to Henderson Jr than I do D.K. / Diggs to Keenan Allen or CD Lamb who I have a man crush on.  There's only one Mock I was not able to get Lamb in the 3rd / 4th. 

Six weeks ago, you could get Lamb in the 6th--5th easy.  4th is still a mild value, but in the 3rd?  That's basically market value there, after the top 8 WRs are off the board (Hill, Adams, Diggs, Hopkins, Ridley, Jefferson, Metcalf, Brown).  I would expect Lamb to finish the season somewhere in that WR8-WR10 range, so picking him in the third is fair market value--but not likely much of a steal.  After those 8, ADPs show Allen, McLaurin, Robinson, Lamb and Woods all between picks 30 and 40.  I'd rather have Lamb than any of them, but I'd rather be able to pick him after all of them have been taken (like we used to, in the 5th-6th round).  Having to take him in the 3rd now is no better than taking Woods in the 5th, as far as draft value goes.

Chris Carson was another draft value when he could be had pretty much any time through the late 4th round--he would allow you to forego that other RB at the 1/2 turn when you knew you could come back to Carson at 3/4.  (Carson will probly outscore Ekeler anyway, and Najee is probly a push.)  But I'm seeing Carson go as early as the 2/3 turn now--not nearly as much of a value, and totally useless if you have a late draft slot.

[AxeElf 787]

By the way, have you thought of marketing the "12 Hole Compadre"?

I bet weepaws would buy one...

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I may be the single worst person at picking a running back who legitimately helps my team after the 2nd round. In fact when I do draft a running back they are almost guaranteed to not live up to expectations.

[weepaws 2,457]

I concur. 

[cyclone24 1,814]

I’m with you in the 12 spot this year. Champions unite!

I’m definitely going running back at 12. If Kelce is available I will take him on the turn.  If he’s not it’s either going to be Adams or anyone above the 8 spot in rankings. 
If Kelsey is gone in the first at the 3 4 turn if Waller or Kittle somehow are still there I’m going to grab one of them and another running back as long as it’s not past  Dobbins at 18ish. 
 

For the most part it’s best player available but I do have some parameters built-in in almost and “if then” strategy to pivot where the value is.

[AxeElf 787]

4 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

I’m definitely going running back at 12. If Kelce is available I will take him on the turn.  If he’s not it’s either going to be Adams or anyone above the 8 spot in rankings. 
If Kelsey is gone in the first at the 3 4 turn if Waller or Kittle somehow are still there I’m going to grab one of them and another running back as long as it’s not past  Dobbins at 18ish. 

Terrible ideas.

Don't take a TE so early.

Don't take Dobbins at any ADP he would be on the board--he's in a 3-way committee headed by his QB.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I’m not taking Kelce at 11 or even 14. The “positional advantage” is not worth the sacrifice at the position you could have taken instead. 

[Ray_T 588]

29 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

I’m not taking Kelce at 11 or even 14. The “positional advantage” is not worth the sacrifice at the position you could have taken instead. 

I have not done the math.

but the decision to take Kelce in round 1 (or not) really comes down to this:

if you dont pick Kelce, what are you likely to end up with if you wait a round to grab a TE.

That same thought process should apply to every position

Assuming you dont grab him in round 1 and then wait, are you likely to get Waller?  if so, what is the dropoff vs the dropoff at a different position.

 

The main reason Drafting a RB early makes sense is because that dropoff is rather steep from the top RB's.  it was steep in the past at the TE position, but I feel like there are a number of good options at TE you can get better value for.

 

in the 12th spot in the draft, (assuming serpentine) you are in a strange position where you pick back to back.

its a tough position for this debate because you could take him as the first pick in round 2 as well.  

From what I've seen, people who took Kelce early last year  were not disappointed, but hes another year older, and Waller has emerged as the clear cut second best TE in the NFL.   Given the age of both players it is possible Waller may even be the better pick going forward.  but the dilemma is that Waller may not last to the end of round 3.   its dicey, but if he does fall and is available at that point in the draft,  he is for sure the better pickup given the price you are paying for Kelce.

 

For me, the place where I normally consider drafting a top TE is simple.

I rank him as if he were a WR.   find out the tier he would fit in (assuming you were drafting as a WR)  and put him at the top of that tier.

My rationale is that if you can draft a TE who puts up the same numbers as a WR drafted at the same point, hes a bit more valuable than that WR.

Assuming you trust FFtoday's rankings, that would place Kelce at the point where you would draft justin jefferson (give or take).

So at least 6 WR need to be off the board to find value in round 1 for a player like Kelce.   I think that's a tall order.  if you trust FFtoday's rankings, this type of analysis makes him a second round pick (likely early to mid second)

Granted its a very basic analysis.  but i have found  it to be an effective way to figure out where you should rank the top TE on the board in past years.

Waller is likely an early third round pick using the same rationale(if you trust fftodays rankings and analysis) though I'm sure there may be drafts where he goes earlier, I dont expect that to be typical.

People seem to be hesitant to pick TE early so there is a decent chance you can get him in the middle of round 3 possibly even the end of round 3.   Any point after that point in the draft he likely is providing pretty good value to somebody.

drafting in the 12 hole, i would rather target Waller in round 3 than Kelce in round 1/2.   That could mean you dont get either.   its one of those know your league things to some extent.  are those in your league likely to go after a TE early?  or not?

Like I said above, if you can do this, you are likely getting better value for your draft capital with Waller and avoiding Kelce at the turn of round 1. 

That being said, Waller may not be the best value pick at the end of round 3 either.  but hes definitely a better value pick at that point than Kelce is at the end of round 1. 

 

Anyhow good luck.

 

[weepaws 2,457]

Ray when you said that ff owners who drafted Kelce early last season were not disappointed, 

is that based on Kelce production only, or is that based on that those owners teams won a lot of games and then they also won the Championship of their respected league? 

I don’t know what that percentage would look like, how the owners that drafted Kelce to early ended up on their league even though Kelce wasn’t a disappointment. 

Ive said this many times back in the Gronk days , I can’t recall a team in any league I was in winning the big money. 

And I can say the same with Kelce, the owner in my 14 team non ppr league and the other not so important leagues I’m in , non of them made the playoffs.  

So that’s why the question, but I know that someone will make that mistake again this draft season.  

[tanatastic 2,061]

6 hours ago, weepaws said:

 

is that based on Kelce production only, or is that based on that those owners teams won a lot of games and then they also won the Championship of their respected league? 

Sadly, winning is luck based since you can win scoring 70 or lose scoring 140 any given week. I gauge success on total scoring. If you are a top 3 scorer in the league and missed the playoffs, you still did better than the league winner, they just got luckier in their head to head matchups. FF is a joke when you use critical thinking to boil down the concepts at play.
 

That said…I always find the Kelce owner scrambling for depth all season and the teams that hit on their 1st round RB and found a serviceable waiver gem TE to be happier.

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, tanatastic said:

If you are a top 3 scorer in the league and missed the playoffs, you still did better than the league winner, they just got luckier in their head to head matchups. FF is a joke when you use critical thinking to boil down the concepts at play.

This is why I REALLY like the Best Ball leagues.  They use total points, rather than H2H records, so there's no luck of the matchups.  They use your best possible lineup each week, so there's no bad luck of benching a player when he posts a 50-burger.  You don't get to correct your drafting errors through the season through waivers and trades--what you draft is what you get.

So while there's still the luck of injuries and the luck of having all three of your TEs have bad days on the same week or whatever, the skills involved in actual player analysis and roster construction--not just checking the next name off the player list at the draft--are rewarded.

[weepaws 2,457]

Agree about luck when it comes to H2H and when it comes to total points that the true measure of a teams success. 

Our 14 team non ppr league, we do both a regular season of H2H and a total season of total points, keeps everyone interested the whole season.  

[tanatastic 2,061]

19 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Our 14 team non ppr league, we do both a regular season of H2H and a total season of total points, keeps everyone interested the whole season.  

That’s a good way to do it. I’ve always wanted a way to incentivize total points while keeping the wacky fun of H2H. In a perfect world I would have standings be strictly total points but that’s so much less fun for everyone.

I came up with an idea to have top half scorers each week get a win and the bottom half get a loss. I still think that’s decent idea but never had a chance to do it.

[cyclone24 1,814]

It’s all personal preference. My thought process is I’m really trying to go modified zero running back because there’s so much depth at quarterback and wide receiver you can afford to grab an elite running back and then the biggest advantage as far as positions out there in Kelce. 
I want no part of the running backs in the dead zone at the end of round three and four. There’s no advantage.
At the end of round one and start around two I don’t want any question marks. In going running back running back the guys that are there are not exactly no-brainers. 
Kelces adp reflects this as well…So while you may not agree I will certainly wouldn’t call it a terrible idea.

[Serenity Now 44]

2 hours ago, tanatastic said:

That’s a good way to do it. I’ve always wanted a way to incentivize total points while keeping the wacky fun of H2H. In a perfect world I would have standings be strictly total points but that’s so much less fun for everyone.

I came up with an idea to have top half scorers each week get a win and the bottom half get a loss. I still think that’s decent idea but never had a chance to do it.

A win/loss for H2H and a win/loss for top half of scoring is by far the best system I’ve played in. Not only do you get the competition of h2h and the fairness of high scoring, but every nfl game matters to you. Even if you’ve won or lost your h2h by the Monday night game, you’re still usually cheering for something.

[weepaws 2,457]

I like picking a wr who I think will shine and be my cornerstone at my wr slot.  But not all WRs , in then second I have three wr I’ll take, of their gone I’m taking Mixon  

14 team non ppr, so Rbs are very important and go pretty quick, but then there are those owners you like to take qbs and te early and I like those owners.  

Plenty of WRs and Rbs left for me.