Player's at the 1st Turn

[fatguylittlecoat 13]

We have a 12 Team, 1/2 pt PPR so I'm seeing players such as:

1.  Austin Ekeler

2.  Aaron Jones

3.  Antonio Gibson

4.  Najee Harris

5.  Stefan Diggs

6.  DK Metcalf

7.  Deandre Hopkins

8.  C.E.H

Available at 12 and 13th pick, on a very rare occasion I'll see Nick Chubb and will scoop him up if he's available but if not, I'm leaning towards Austin Ekeler and Najee or C.E.H. .  I don't want Mixon so I didn't even list him and I'm leery on Aaron Jones.  I guess what keeps me pointed to RB's in the first round is the depth at the position at WR.  Am I missing anyone who should be on this list  or do you like any of them above ?  

[AxeElf 787]

I'd take Mixon long before I drafted Ekeler, Gibson or CEH.

Jones and Najee would be a solid start.

[fatguylittlecoat 13]

52 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I'd take Mixon long before I drafted Ekeler, Gibson or CEH.

Jones and Najee would be a solid start.

You concerned with the Steelers less than average O Line ?  Najee will get his head beaten in.  

[AxeElf 787]

41 minutes ago, fatguylittlecoat said:

You concerned with the Steelers less than average O Line ?  Najee will get his head beaten in.  

Not at all, and that confidence was bolstered by what I saw in the Hall of Fame game.  The Steelers are largely a passing team anyway.

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, fatguylittlecoat said:

You concerned with the Steelers less than average O Line ?  Najee will get his head beaten in.  

as mentioned earlier, they are a passing team primarily.  But I think that offense as a whole was a lot more effective when the offense had some balance.

I think this is a sign they want to go back there.  

That being said, teams wont stack the box.  they are expecting pass, and that will help his numbers against most teams, but the top Defenses will likely still shut the run down.

I acknowledge his talent may allow him to make a couple runs that a lesser back wouldn't be able to make but I still expect the top defenses will more likely rule the day.

 

 

[weepaws 2,451]

Jones, he will lose some short yardage work, and even some goal line work. But remember they resign him and said goodbye to J Williams, now that’s good news for a half point ppr owner, cause guess what Packers Rb will pick up the targets left behind from J Williams? 

Also I would take who I have listed as the second top wr. Diggs.  

Best of luck. 

[polecatt 399]

I would have to take at least one of the WRs. The top notch RBs are gone but the top notch WRs are not.

You need to get a player with huge upside and reliability if you can.

That's iffy with any of those RBs. The WRs are much more reliable.

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

At 11 my dream is Jones and Ekeler but also covet Hopkins and Najee with that second pick. Would not take a Redskin, CEH or Mixon in early rnd 2. There’s this narrative that Ryan Fitztragic is some great QB and the Skins are going to roll that division. In his very long career he has never once played a playoff game people, temper expectations for them.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

I think Dillon will take some of the running work away from Jones, but I think he'll see more work in the passing game now that Williams is gone. The only way I see Jones losing value is if Dillon get's the inside the 5 carries, but that could be offset with increased receptions in ppr formats. 

For me it would be Jones and Harris. Hard to beat a couple of bell cows at the turn. 

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

At 11 my dream is Jones and Ekeler but also covet Hopkins and Najee with that second pick.

Harris is the move.

I just don't understand the Ekeler love; tell me, is it the zero 100 yard games or the 3 TDs on the season that attracts you?

[tanatastic 2,061]

23 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Harris is the move.

I just don't understand the Ekeler love; tell me, is it the zero 100 yard games or the 3 TDs on the season that attracts you?

He barely played last season. 2019 he had a top 4 season, the prospect of getting back to that groove is what attracts me. He’s isn’t just some darling of mine, he’s ranked in the top 7 RBs by almost everyone this season so there’s some smoke to go with the fire.

You can just read his blurbs on every site to hear his bull case. But essentially he’s a ppr cheat code, like Kamara has been. 

[AxeElf 787]

52 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

he’s ranked in the top 7 RBs by almost everyone this season so there’s some smoke to go with the fire.

It wouldn't be the first time Axe Elf has stood as a bulwark of sanity amongst a pandemic of hype; the same thing could have been said about Jonathan Taylor earlier in the summer (although people are starting to come to their senses now).

[Ray_T 587]

31 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

He barely played last season. 2019 he had a top 4 season, the prospect of getting back to that groove is what attracts me. He’s isn’t just some darling of mine, he’s ranked in the top 7 RBs by almost everyone this season so there’s some smoke to go with the fire.

You can just read his blurbs on every site to hear his bull case. But essentially he’s a ppr cheat code, like Kamara has been. 

I guess the concern with Ekeler is that he only really had one season where he put up great numbers.   just under 500 yards rushing, and just under 1000 yards receiving in 2019 with 8 receiving TD's and 3 rushing TD's.

since that time the starting QB has changed and his numbers on a per game basis were not fantastic.   Certainly not what they were in 2019.

I acknowledge he was injured so to some degree you have to give him a possible mulligan.  if he was still playing hurt after he returned to the lineup that could be the reason for the lower production.

normally a QB change doesnt affect a RB that much, but in this case over 2/3 of Ekelers fantasy points came from receiving in that magical 2019 fantasy year.  so I would argue in this case I think the QB change may matter.   and his new QB doesnt seem to check down to the RB's as much.   Like I said, if Ekeler was playing hurt, that COULD be the reason.  But if he was fine, what then?

I'm not saying he wont bounce back but I am saying there is considerably more risk to this player than is typical from year to year.

In PPR he could be a goldmine or a dud. To me this doesnt feel like a player you should take  this early. 

I would not be considering him  at or near the turn of round 1 because of the risks previously mentioned.

Hes probably a guy better taken (at earliest) after the turn in round 2 going into round 3. 

My guess is his ADP is somewhere in that area (probably a few slots after this point) give or take a few spots and I think it is likely appropriate given the risks.

That being said, I have not done a lot of research into the player.  Maybe you have more insights into what happened to him statistically and whether or not he was actually hurt later in the year.  If that is the case, I may be inclined to bump him up a bit, but if you look at his stats before and after that 2019 year, there are not a lot of TD's there.  This also makes me ask if that 2019 year was the anomaly.  is that going to be normal for him going forward?

Thats a tough question to answer.   If any Chargers homers wanna step in and clarify some of the facts on this guy I'd welcome the discussion.    Getting this pick right could make a significant difference in how your draft (and the scoring for your fantasy team) goes down.

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

I would not be considering him  at or near the turn of round 1 because of the risks previously mentioned.

Hes probably a guy better taken (at earliest) after the turn in round 2 going into round 3.

Agreed, but if you draft him, you're going to have to spend that pick at or near the 1st turn.  I'd be so much happier with Najee, or even Mixon, there.

[tanatastic 2,061]

6 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

normally a QB change doesnt affect a RB that much, but in this case over 2/3 of Ekelers fantasy points came from receiving in that magical 2019 fantasy year.  so I would argue in this case I think the QB change may matter.   and his new QB doesnt seem to check down to the RB's as much.  

He had 54 rec in little more than half a season he was healthy. I’m not concerned about the best rookie QB in history affecting him negatively from what we’ve seen from them together so far. I’m less concerned with Ekelers receptions than I am from consensus top 4 pick Kamaras rec due to their respective QB situations.

[tanatastic 2,061]

18 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

.  I'd be so much happier with Najee, or even Mixon, there.

I can’t fault either of those guys in that range. Mixon has a big bounce back bull case you can make. Plus in my league we get a carry bonus at 20 carries and Mixon much more likely to hit than than a rec guy like Ekeler.

[weepaws 2,451]

Jones, Diggs OP, third round you can pick up Woods and in fourth M Davis and your rolling into what would be called total domination of your ff league. 

Thanks. 

[Ray_T 587]

28 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Agreed, but if you draft him, you're going to have to spend that pick at or near the 1st turn.  I'd be so much happier with Najee, or even Mixon, there.

agreed.  I'd rather have mixon if drafting today.

It usually takes a couple weeks of exhibition for me to warm up to rookie RB's but it does look like Najee may be a good one.  Normally I rank the rookies a bit lower than concensus and then move him up as he shows more during camp.  in this case I'm a bit concerned about the Line in Pittsburgh so right now hes ranked lower than Mixon on my board at this time.

[AxeElf 787]

4 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

It usually takes a couple weeks of exhibition for me to warm up to rookie RB's but it does look like Najee may be a good one.  Normally I rank the rookies a bit lower than concensus and then move him up as he shows more during camp.  in this case I'm a bit concerned about the Line in Pittsburgh so right now hes ranked lower than Mixon on my board at this time.

Pittsburgh is primarily a passing team, so the O-line doesn't really bother me; defenses won't be stacking the box anyway.

Harris has all the earmarks of a bellcow RB for a powerhouse offense, and you don't become the all-time leading rusher at Alabama (of all places!) by accident.

I have him slightly above Mixon due to Mixon's elevated injury risk.

[Ray_T 587]

3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Pittsburgh is primarily a passing team, so the O-line doesn't really bother me; defenses won't be stacking the box anyway.

Harris has all the earmarks of a bellcow RB for a powerhouse offense, and you don't become the all-time leading rusher at Alabama (of all places!) by accident.

I have him slightly above Mixon due to Mixon's elevated injury risk.

sounds like we are splitting hairs.  

Like I said, as I see more of Naj during the pre season I suspect he will move up my board a bit.   Right now hes behind Mixon on my list, but I have both ahead of Ekeler.  I may change my mind but thats where they are at right now.  I explained my bias (if you would call it that) with rookie RB's so my rationale should be understandable.  I like to see a bit more during exhibition before boosting their value.   Nothing wrong with that approach in my opinion.  I suspect I may end up with similar rankings to yours for the same player by the time week 1 starts.

[cmh6476 748]

my 13 yr old was 9 of 12 I think, and got Hopkins then Najee

[jrokh 567]

Mixon is like getting a bj with a prophylactic. It’s fine, but could be so much better…

[tanatastic 2,061]

Picks at this end of the draft require some extra thought just because there are so many picks before your 3rd rounder. This is the last stop to really kind of “cheat” out 2 elite players that the early 1st rounders don’t get the chance to do.
 

Taking 2 RB here takes so much pressure off the rest of your draft it’s crazy. You don’t have to chase any positions, there are good options at WR still available when it comes all the way back around in rnd 3 and you generally just feel good about it. The downside is you miss out on probably the last top 4 wr but if you go WR you feel immense pressure to take an RB ASAP in 3/4. It’s like the music from sonic the hedgehog when Sonic is about to drown is playing. You pass on an RB with these rnd 3/4 turn picks and you end up starting a flex player at RB2 if you are lucky.

[Ray_T 587]

7 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Picks at this end of the draft require some extra thought just because there are so many picks before your 3rd rounder. This is the last stop to really kind of “cheat” out 2 elite players that the early 1st rounders don’t get the chance to do.
 

Taking 2 RB here takes so much pressure off the rest of your draft it’s crazy. You don’t have to chase any positions, there are good options at WR still available when it comes all the way back around in rnd 3 and you generally just feel good about it. The downside is you miss out on probably the last top 4 wr but if you go WR you feel immense pressure to take an RB ASAP in 3/4. It’s like the music from sonic the hedgehog when Sonic is about to drown is playing. You pass on an RB with these rnd 3/4 turn picks and you end up starting a flex player at RB2 if you are lucky.

True. 

The dropoff at RB is fairly substantial.  but in general, there are always people who take WR's in round 1.  in my opinion there are only a couple out there that are worth it but I'll not get into that here.

12 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Mixon is like getting a bj with a prophylactic. It’s fine, but could be so much better…

This is the best quote I've seen. I laughed pretty hard when I read it.

I will point out Mixon has been running behind a poor line and playing on a bad team.

the team as a whole is better and the line is a lot better.  So I do think the arrow is starting to point up for this guy.   Also he looks to not be sharing carries, so I think its fair to expect a better year than what we have seen from the guy.

but either way I still love the quote.  Nicely done.

[weepaws 2,451]

I like to draft the top wr , I can count on that wr to be my cornerstone wr.  

 

[polecatt 399]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

I like to draft the top wr , I can count on that wr to be my cornerstone wr.  

 

I agree, the WRs you can draft there have about as good a chance to be top 5 as any, they all could potentially be the top WR.

I would even consider taking two WRs depending on who is there. If have two top 5 WRs, then you don't need a lot on the bench, you can load up on RBs after that.

[AintNoStoppinMeNow 68]

11 hours ago, polecatt said:

I agree, the WRs you can draft there have about as good a chance to be top 5 as any, they all could potentially be the top WR.

I would even consider taking two WRs depending on who is there. If have two top 5 WRs, then you don't need a lot on the bench, you can load up on RBs after that.

Normally I'm all about going RB-RB but if my league mates go RB heavy and draft Kelce, that leaves the possibility of drafting of Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill at the turn. That would be extremely difficult to pass up in any format. 

[polecatt 399]

2 hours ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

Normally I'm all about going RB-RB but if my league mates go RB heavy and draft Kelce, that leaves the possibility of drafting of Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill at the turn. That would be extremely difficult to pass up in any format. 

Yeah, it's just difficult to take lower end RBs and pass up top stud WRs.

 

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

Normally I'm all about going RB-RB but if my league mates go RB heavy and draft Kelce, that leaves the possibility of drafting of Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill at the turn. That would be extremely difficult to pass up in any format. 

I have one best ball league with Adams and Hill as my first two picks, then went Mahomes, Carson, Davis, Golladay, Mostert, Sermon.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I swear I feel like everyone is so hot to take Kelce in rnd 1 back half but I’m over here saying the team cost of drafting a te is not worth it at any place in rnd 1. I’m even thinking of passing on him if he comes to me rnd 2 at pick 14 but I will be sweating big time about it. TE positional advantage is not that big! It’s a fallacy!

[AxeElf 787]

25 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

I swear I feel like everyone is so hot to take Kelce in rnd 1 back half but I’m over here saying the team cost of drafting a te is not worth it at any place in rnd 1. I’m even thinking of passing on him if he comes to me rnd 2 at pick 14 but I will be sweating big time about it. TE positional advantage is not that big! It’s a fallacy!

Been preaching it all summer.

Yay, you have the best TE.

But your RB1 is now in the tier of everyone else's RB2.

Your RB2 is now in the tier of everyone else's RB3.

Your WR1 is now in the tier of everyone else's WR2.

Your WR2 is now in the tier of everyone else's WR3.

Those 6-8 pts you gained at TE get small mighty fast.

[tanatastic 2,061]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Been preaching it all summer.

Yay, you have the best TE.

But your RB1 is now in the tier of everyone else's RB2.

Your RB2 is now in the tier of everyone else's RB3.

Your WR1 is now in the tier of everyone else's WR2.

Your WR2 is now in the tier of everyone else's WR3.

Those 6-8 pts you gained at TE get small mighty fast.

For real. You end up chasing not just RB but also WR now. It puts more pressure on you to find guys who play above their adp to make up for it. Me while the guys who found the waiver gems at TE are getting 75% of Kelce at no draft cost. It’s a real predicament that’s made even harder because I predict Mahomes to be the MVP thus implying a historic season for Kelce. Ugh.

[weepaws 2,451]

14 team non ppr, I need to draft Rbs and WRs early, and the more owners that draft te&qb early the better. 

In my league he usually goes early second round, because it’s a non ppr and the size of teams Rbs and WRs go fast.  

 

[AxeElf 787]

4 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

For real. You end up chasing not just RB but also WR now. It puts more pressure on you to find guys who play above their adp to make up for it. Me while the guys who found the waiver gems at TE are getting 75% of Kelce at no draft cost. It’s a real predicament that’s made even harder because I predict Mahomes to be the MVP thus implying a historic season for Kelce. Ugh.

35 drafts in, and zero shares of Kelce so far.

Although, there was one auction draft where I SHOULD have bought him, I have to admit.  I was sitting on a stack of cash, because most of my targets hadn't been nominated yet, while most of the league was under $50, and Kelce came out real late.  I think he ended up going for like $29, but I just couldn't bring myself to spend that much on a TE when I still wanted to make sure I had enough to pay for my targets.  Turned out everyone bled dry and I ended up getting most of my targets for pennies on the dollar, and I had enough left on the table that I could have bought Kelce and STILL had money left over.

So that was my bad, I really should have been adjusting my projected target costs downward as the bulk of the league ran low on bank--and I would have had the same studly team I drafted, but with Kelce at TE.  I think I got Higbee in that one instead.

[jrokh 567]

46 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

35 drafts in, and zero shares of Kelce so far.

Although, there was one auction draft where I SHOULD have bought him, I have to admit.  I was sitting on a stack of cash, because most of my targets hadn't been nominated yet, while most of the league was under $50, and Kelce came out real late.  I think he ended up going for like $29, but I just couldn't bring myself to spend that much on a TE when I still wanted to make sure I had enough to pay for my targets.  Turned out everyone bled dry and I ended up getting most of my targets for pennies on the dollar, and I had enough left on the table that I could have bought Kelce and STILL had money left over.

So that was my bad, I really should have been adjusting my projected target costs downward as the bulk of the league ran low on bank--and I would have had the same studly team I drafted, but with Kelce at TE.  I think I got Higbee in that one instead.

 

[fatguylittlecoat 13]

I ripped off the bandaid and tried the WR / WR , 12 team PPR mock, Davante Adams and Tyreek were still available so I scooped them up and then went Darrell Henderson and Mahomes and then went into scramble mode to pick up Mike Davis , Raheem Mostert and back up rookie to 49ers.  I am certainly more than ok with getting Tyreek and Davante 1st, 2nd pick but that is a rarity.  12 hole is starting to feel not so bad.  

[Bier Meister 1,512]

38 minutes ago, fatguylittlecoat said:

I ripped off the bandaid and tried the WR / WR , 12 team PPR mock, Davante Adams and Tyreek were still available so I scooped them up and then went Darrell Henderson and Mahomes and then went into scramble mode to pick up Mike Davis , Raheem Mostert and back up rookie to 49ers.  I am certainly more than ok with getting Tyreek and Davante 1st, 2nd pick but that is a rarity.  12 hole is starting to feel not so bad.  

I haven't seen adams drop that far in my mocks.  I have been experimenting with different 1-2 combos, and do not like the options at rb at 3--4 and 5-6 when i've gone wr/wr.  Te plays a bigger role in most of my league (1.5 ppr), so I would like to walk away with one of the top 5 (they do not last to 5/6...sometimes 3/4). i have liked rb/te at 1-2, then wr/rb or wr at 3-4.  

[weepaws 2,451]

I wonder what rb you might have been able to pick up if you didn’t take Mahomes in the fourth, I would have gone rb.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

5 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I wonder what rb you might have been able to pick up if you didn’t take Mahomes in the fourth, I would have gone rb.

Typically, Gibson, Nixon, Harris, sometimes Chubb... and everyone ranked below 

 

I am starting to like Jones at 1.11

[weepaws 2,451]

If Gibson or Mixon, or Harris or Chubb would be available in the fourth , then taking a Qb would be a mistake. 

Henderson isn’t a rb one wants as their rb1.