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jrokh

Pre-Season Overreactions/Observations

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

It was a disparaging comment on overreactions, when this is a thread for embracing them.

Utilit99 does not embrace overreactions. He discourages them. 

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Receivers also dropped multiple crisp passes from Trey. You can’t stop preseason hype trains after a long td, hes already going ahead of T Lawrence in best ball drafts. 

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Rams and Chargers.

Josh Palmer with 6 receptions so far; looks like he's going to be a serious threat to Keenan Allen's ability to fulfill his ADP.  It doesn't look like Palmer will be much of a threat to Mike Williams' deep targets, but he was all the rage in the possession game with Allen out.

Both Justin Jackson and Josh Kelley got pretty much equal work in the first half, though neither of them did much with their chances.  Jackson averaged 2.6 yards per carry on 5 carries, and Kelley averaged 2.4 yards per carry on 8 carries.  I might have to watch a little bit of the second half to see Rountree; neither Jackson nor Kelley did anything to secure the grinder role tonight.

The Rams' backup RBs din't fare much better; Xavier Jones got the most touches, but only averaged 3.3 yards per carry (and Funk 1.7) despite seeing what I thought was some pretty respectable blocking by the O-line.  If they give Henderson those kinds of holes, he'll be a RB1 for sure.

In the absence of the starting WRs, the guy who stood out was Tutu Atwell, both as a receiver and as a return specialist.  Both he and Raymond Calais had long special teams returns, though Atwell's was nullified by penalty.  I doubt if Atwell will be fantasy relevant, but if the Rams are returning kicks for TDs every couple of weeks, that's going to add a lot of value to an already esteemed fantasy defense.  If nothing else, Atwell might be worth a look after DeSean Jackson has played his 2 games for this season and goes on IR.

Most disturbing to me as frequent drafter of Tyler Higbee is this Jacob Harris kid--6'5" 219 lbs and runs a 4.39 40??  He was the Rams' leading receiver in the first half, with 3 catches on 3 targets for 30 yards.  I don't need no new Gerald Everetts coming in to steal Higbee's thunder!

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After missing much of the first drive after an issue with his eye when he got high-lowed thanks to a late Chase Daniel pass, Palmer could've had a TD after burning his man on a slant, but Chase Daniel was looking somewhere else for some reason.  Bad read.

It looks like Palmer is playing that X-receiver role which was the Michael Thomas role under new charger OC Lombardi when he was the saints OC.  If he's bringing that offense to LAC, some receiver on this team is going to really outperform their ADP.

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9 minutes ago, nobody said:

some receiver on this team is going to really outperform their ADP.

Well, Palmer could finish as the WR70 and outperform his ADP, but yeah, he seems likely to finish much higher than that.  Mike Williams is still sitting with an ADP around WR50, so it wouldn't be hard for him to really outperform his ADP too.

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4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

if the Rams are returning kicks for TDs every couple of weeks, that's going to add a lot of value to an already esteemed fantasy defense. 

This is kind of a strange thing to say. I think you are vastly overestimating how many KR and PR td you can expect a team to get. Last year there were 7 KRTD and 8 PRTD across the entire nfl. Rams will be extremely lucky to get 1 kr td let alone 2 and certainly won’t get 8 which “every couple weeks” implies. I know this was not meant to be taken literally it just stands out as a really strange statement.

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

This is kind of a strange thing to say. I think you are vastly overestimating how many KR and PR td you can expect a team to get.

Check the thread title.

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7 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Receivers also dropped multiple crisp passes from Trey. You can’t stop preseason hype trains after a long td, hes already going ahead of T Lawrence in best ball drafts. 

Specifically Elf's darling Aiyuk.

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7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I might have to watch a little bit of the second half to see Rountree; neither Jackson nor Kelley did anything to secure the grinder role tonight.

My MAN!

Rountree averaged 7.9 yards on 9 carries, including busting a 20 yard run on 4th and 1, and another 25 yard run in the closing minutes.  Waiver wire speed dial...

Most ignorant Aqib Talib quote:  "SoFi Stadium is second to none, by far."  Does that mean it's a long way behind none, or what?

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10 hours ago, nobody said:

After missing much of the first drive after an issue with his eye when he got high-lowed thanks to a late Chase Daniel pass, Palmer could've had a TD after burning his man on a slant, but Chase Daniel was looking somewhere else for some reason.  Bad read.

It looks like Palmer is playing that X-receiver role which was the Michael Thomas role under new charger OC Lombardi when he was the saints OC.  If he's bringing that offense to LAC, some receiver on this team is going to really outperform their ADP.

Daniel is not good. That’s the main reason.

 

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57 minutes ago, DrG said:

Daniel is not good. That’s the main reason.

 

Preach.  I was watching the game and seeing receivers running wide open while he's looking right at him and it takes him 2 seconds to make the decision to throw the ball.  It's like he's triple checking the guy is really actually open.

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Jacob Eason looks fantastic. Terrance Marshall had a huge gain, but it was a busted coverage and he got caught from behind when a faster guy would've scored easily. Still he is a big dude. Jonathan Taylor not playing, Marlon Mack is, which suggests this isn't really a committee . Mack looks good, but Taylor is going back inside my top ten RB's (#10)

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16 hours ago, tanatastic said:
Its Trey day in the Trey area!

And he went 9 for 14!!!!! Not bad.

Well, 9 incomplete passes of 14 attempts to complete them. So he's really good at that. Proven!!  :lol:

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20 hours ago, AxeElf said:

 

When a college with a rich tradition of producing NFL QBs like Ohio State graduates a prospect to an NFL team with a rich tradition of drafting college QBs like the Bears, one should feel justified in reserving their judgment of Justin Fields.  Now, I don't watch the second halves of preseason games (nothing fantasy-relevant ever happens in the second halves of preseason games), but against first-half competition, Fields was first spooked on a blitz and lofted up a pass that was dropped by a defender, and then promptly fumbled the ball on the next play (fortunately it went out of bounds).

So I don't think it's too early at this point to declare Fields a bust in the NFL.

This is a really good example of someone who doesn't watch the game and yet feels compelled to form opinions and then comment on it. Bravo for exposing yourself so cleanly.

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26 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

And he went 9 for 14!!!!! Not bad.

Well, 9 incomplete passes of 14 attempts to complete them. So he's really good at that. Proven!!  :lol:

While trey provided some excitement, jimmy looked sharp. He looked healthy... was stepping into his throws and they had some zip on them.

I never though he looked healthy last year.. hesitant... threw some floaters, unlike 19.

 

jimmy’s job until hurt. Trey will have some trey-specific plays called for him.  Kind of reminds me of harbaugh introducing Kaep to the offense

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34 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

This is a really good example of someone who doesn't watch the game and yet feels compelled to form opinions and then comment on it. 

Check the thread title.

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28 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

While trey provided some excitement, jimmy looked sharp. He looked healthy... was stepping into his throws and they had some zip on them.

I never though he looked healthy last year.. hesitant... threw some floaters, unlike 19.

 

jimmy’s job until hurt. Trey will have some trey-specific plays called for him.  Kind of reminds me of harbaugh introducing Kaep to the offense

Yeah. And it should be. He's a really good QB. 

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Terrance Marshall had a huge gain, but it was a busted coverage and he got caught from behind when a faster guy would've scored easily. 

Terrace.

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Thank the Lord Football is back in LA!

 

 

 

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Colts and Panthers.

Good to see Marlon Mack getting a quarter of work.  He looked tentative, as one might expect in the first action after an Achilles injury, as if he doesn't trust it yet--but when he committed his cuts looked firm and quick.  So I think it's just a matter of the team giving him these preseason snaps to get his confidence back.  Jordan Wilkins looked pretty good in the second quarter, for that matter.  It's definitely a crowded RB room in Indy.

Keep an eye on the 7th round draft pick from Charleston College--Mike Strachan--he seemed to be getting the most work in the absence of the starters.

Carolina din't really show much, but Hubbard had a couple of nice runs (mostly the fault of the defense).

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12 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Check the thread title.

Nah you weren’t being cheeky or overreacting, you were making real analysis. You just massively overestimated how often to expect KR tds and it came off a bit strange is all.

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Packers and Texans.

It was pretty much the Jordan Love & Devin Funchess show throughout the first half for Green Bay.

The Texans treated Ingram in accordance with his #1 spot on the depth chart--he did not play, but Lindsay played quite a bit, with Johnson spelling him from time to time.  That's not a good look for Johnson owners.

The other interesting battle for the Texans is which WR out of Miller, Conley and Coutee (if any) will emerge as the #3 WR behind Cooks and Collins.  Conley probly got the most targets today.

Don't forget about Tyrod Taylor in 2QB/Superflex leagues.

Largely a pretty ho-hum affair.

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1 minute ago, tanatastic said:

Nah you weren’t being cheeky or overreacting, you were making real analysis. You just massively overestimated how often to expect KR tds and it came off a bit strange is all.

Axe Elf will speak for Axe Elf, if you don't mind.

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17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Well, Palmer could finish as the WR70 and outperform his ADP, but yeah, he seems likely to finish much higher than that.  Mike Williams is still sitting with an ADP around WR50, so it wouldn't be hard for him to really outperform his ADP too.

I (potentially) like palmer as a sneaky good last round pick or priority waiver wire pickup in deeper leagues.

of course its still early.

its not like hes lighting up the first team defenses yet.  If we are still talking about him after the final exhibition game, then I'll agree there is something there.

for now, its nice to see.

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27 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Don't forget about Tyrod Taylor in 2QB/Superflex leagues.

This is potentially a really nice pickup.  Especially if Watson ends up being on the commissioners list.

and the price will be so cheap it will practically be free.

This is a guy who will put up high end QB2 numbers with some QB1 upside due to his running ability. (if he plays)

the key words here being IF HE PLAYS.

in regular leagues hes not likely all that useful except  potentially bye week fillers when the opponent is favorable.

 

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On 8/14/2021 at 11:21 AM, jrokh said:

Malcolm Brown looks just as terrible as I remembered him being. Don't know if that helps Gaskin, but it doesn't hurt...

I never considered him a huge threat to Gaskins touches.

I honestly think Ahmed is a bigger threat. but right now hes listed as #3 on the depth chart.   if Gaskin gets hurt, I'd expect this kid would get the nod to start over Malcolm Brown.  Thats just my opinion though.

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Jets and Giants.

The Giants kept pretty much everyone important in bubble wrap for this game, so there's not much to say about them.

The Jets played a lot of starters, including Zach Wilson for a quarter (he looked okay for his first start), and he seemed to look Corey Davis' way a lot.  The RBs seemed to be in a full-blown RBBC, although Tevin Coleman only played a few snaps early on (probably in deference to his #1 spot on the depth chart).  Ty Johnson seemed to get the biggest workout of the three.  The only TE I saw with a catch was Tyler Kroft, who I suspect will be the team's #1 TE on opening day.

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22 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

well, it was a nice looking catch anyways.   a few more of those and he will move up the depth chart quickly

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6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I (potentially) like palmer as a sneaky good last round pick or priority waiver wire pickup in deeper leagues.

of course its still early.

its not like hes lighting up the first team defenses yet.  If we are still talking about him after the final exhibition game, then I'll agree there is something there.

for now, its nice to see.

As the biggest Josh Palmer guy here, I think he ends up as the 3rd receiver for the chargers.  Until Keenan or Williams gets hurt there isn't a need to roster him in normal leagues.

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1 minute ago, nobody said:

As the biggest Josh Palmer guy here, I think he ends up as the 3rd receiver for the chargers.  Until Keenan or Williams gets hurt there isn't a need to roster him in normal leagues.

you are probably right.

but keenan Allen hasnt been a model of good health.  8 seasons.  only 3 of those hes played every game.     Williams usually misses a game or two as well each year.

so he will likely get a chance to show what hes got.  to me its just a question of when will it happen?

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Agreed.  Playing dynasty for so long has taught me something over the years.  Talent finds a way to get on the field.

But as much as I like him, he's not better than Keenan.  He'll probably be better than Williams shortly if he isn't already, but as the vet, Williams will get the benefit of the doubt.

 

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11 hours ago, Ray_T said:

but keenan Allen hasnt been a model of good health.  8 seasons.  only 3 of those hes played every game.     Williams usually misses a game or two as well each year.

I don't know how fair of an argument this is.  Davante Adams, played 16 games in only 2 of 7 seasons... no one seems to knock him for it.  Tyreek Hill only did it twice in 5 seasons.  Diggs only once in 5 years.  Allen only had 2 seasons where he didn't play at least 14 games.  Not saying he wouldn't be expected to miss a game or two, but to say he "hasnt been a model of good health", is something that could be applied to 99% of the WR's if missing 1 or 2 games a season is the standard.

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After 2014, 2015, and 2016, it was fair to think of Keenan Allen as an injury risk.  But one of those years was a freak kidney laceration, and he's only missed 2 games in the last 4 years (both last year), so I think he's done enough recently to be taken out of the "high injury risk" category.

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21 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

After 2014, 2015, and 2016, it was fair to think of Keenan Allen as an injury risk.  But one of those years was a freak kidney laceration, and he's only missed 2 games in the last 4 years (both last year), so I think he's done enough recently to be taken out of the "high injury risk" category.

A lot of people would be surprised if they checked his rec stats the last 4 years. 100, 104, 97, 102. Hes the model of consistency and if you are buying Herbert you have to bump Keenan up some.

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

A lot of people would be surprised if they checked his rec stats the last 4 years. 100, 104, 97, 102. Hes the model of consistency and if you are buying Herbert you have to bump Keenan up some.

The only thing that concerns me about Keenan is this Palmer kid.  He looks to be all the rage in the underneath/possession area where Keenan makes his hay.  Palmer won't be taking work away from Mike Williams; he'll be taking targets away from Allen.

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59 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

The only thing that concerns me about Keenan is this Palmer kid.  He looks to be all the rage in the underneath/possession area where Keenan makes his hay.  Palmer won't be taking work away from Mike Williams; he'll be taking targets away from Allen.

I think he was playing the X receiver in that game.  That would've been Mike Williams' spot.  New OC this year, so the offense might change the roles a bit.

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2 hours ago, tanatastic said:

A lot of people would be surprised if they checked his rec stats the last 4 years. 100, 104, 97, 102. Hes the model of consistency and if you are buying Herbert you have to bump Keenan up some.

They should want to use Allen less, he isn’t explosive at all. Now that’s far easier said than done, of course, but if they can get a younger/faster/more elusive guy in there who can credibly take targets from Allen? They’re going to try.

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