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***Wagering thread***

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2 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I'm going to have to start messing with Teasers and have Ravens on ML for this game.

HOLY SMOKES!😳😳😳

What odds on your ML? What a damn game

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3 hours ago, Fireballer said:

I'm doing a conservative (hopefully) DK Same Game Parlay with alternate spread and o/u. 

BLT  +10.5

O 43.5

It's -120 odds.  If you do a 7 pt teaser, you get Blt +10.5, but o/u under onky drops to 46.5 and it's only -140.

 

Nice little bump made up for today

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3 hours ago, Fireballer said:

HOLY SMOKES!😳😳😳

What odds on your ML? What a damn game

I had like 30 bucks on them and over ML to win which paid like 70 something and had them  just to win ML . I just felt it and sometimes can see a upset coming in Prime Time. Got my money back and and happy! I had 5 cents left in my account after the bet. I think Prime Time games are fixed and good figuring them out. Thursday not to much but Sunday & Monday cause lot of viewers and betters.

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20 hours ago, bostonlager said:

1:00 Games: 22-16-1

 

 

16 hours ago, bostonlager said:

4:00 games: 10-17

Sunday Total: 32-33-1

Season total: 147-104-5

College season: 76-38-4

NFL season: 71-66-2

 

No plays for MNF. I think I need to take a step back and quit forcing the NFL plays. Going to try to play only what the numbers justify going forward. 

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Like anything tonight? Id like to bet the game in some fashion.  I'm bad at props generally because I have a hard time pulling the trigger on unders.  

Any opinion on Aaron Jones over 68.5 rush yards? I think they make it a point to run the ball well tonight.

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38 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Like anything tonight? Id like to bet the game in some fashion.  I'm bad at props generally because I have a hard time pulling the trigger on unders.  

Any opinion on Aaron Jones over 68.5 rush yards? I think they make it a point to run the ball well tonight.

I hate taking rushing overs, but if I was going to take one, it would be this one considering how SF gashed them last week. 

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2 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I hate taking rushing overs, but if I was going to take one, it would be this one considering how SF gashed them last week. 

The one thing I worry about is how many carries is AJ Dillon going to steal?

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4 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

The one thing I worry about is how many carries is AJ Dillon going to steal?

That is true.  

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Ryder Cup - Race to 10 points - Europe +140. 

 

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Yesterday was not a great day. At least I was wagering with all free money. DK has given me 20 free $5 wagers based on casino play which I finished up on 👍🏼, BetMGM have me a 100% deposit match up to $50 with a 1x play through requirement and FanDuel gave me $125 with a 1x play through just for making a $5 bet 😂

 

didn’t hit any of my several large parlays. Hit a smaller parlay Rams and Bills ML. Hit Chubb over 87 rushing and Drake over 2.5 receptions. Lost Melvin Gordon over 51 rush yards, Damien Harris over 16.5 rush attempts (he had 16 😡), Hines over 3.5 receptions, Kamara over 4.5 receptions and the game script was in his favor. 

did hit Kupp to score at +130 and Demarcus Robinson to score last night at +500. Those saved me. 

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What I'm learning is that the oddsmakers know some things.  I am hella impressed with how close the numbers have been, and in that case seemingly random chances push the win one way or the other, and the house wins from the vig.

Take last night, I had CEH u 49.5 rushing and Chiefs -3.5.  If the Ravens the the 2 pt conversion, they are up 3 and the Chiefs go for 4, good shot for me at winning.  But they don't, so I probably lose.  CEH enters the last drive with 48 yds, another loss but WAIT!  He fumbles, Chiefs never get the ball back, I win that.

Cards Vikes, I lose Jefferson u 5.5 catches by .5 on the last drive, lose Kirk o 3.5 by .5... this NFL thing is looking like a slow bleed.  Maybe I'll figure out NBA betting.

BTW, my wife went to that game and won another parlay, Kirk 40+ and Kyler 1+ rushing TD.  She has more than doubled her free S75 from FD. :lol: 

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9 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

What I'm learning is that the oddsmakers know some things.  I am hella impressed with how close the numbers have been, and in that case seemingly random chances push the win one way or the other, and the house wins from the vig.

They are using AI and algorithms. A friend of mine was trying to do a startup, where you can bet run/pass, length, and everything else on every play from your seat.  He said it was all figured out.  I actually think the game lines themselves are less sharp than they used to be, particularly in college.  Everyone is into props, now. 

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Very few of my prop losses this year have been by that .5. Yesterday I did get hit with the D Harris rush attempts and Kamara receptions by .5 but a lot of my misses and hits on props have been oddly not close due to game script or whatever. 

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took the Lions +11.5 and total o 49.5

Hoping for a close-ish cripple fight with lots of punches thrown but nobody hurt.  :thumbsup:

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2 hours ago, jerryskids said:

took the Lions +11.5 and total o 49.5

Hoping for a close-ish cripple fight with lots of punches thrown but nobody hurt.  :thumbsup:

1-1, slight bleed.  I broke my (recent) rule of trying to do odd number bets so I don't watch the bleed so obviously.

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I'm good at the Prime Time games and had a real good record last year. What sucks is I'm not good at the NFL day games. This years Prime time games are mostly being the over like it was last year. This will change in a few weeks like it did last year and around week 5 and you will see a lot of under games after that.

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So far this year, any game where both QBs have either

1.  won an NFL MVP
2.  Gone to a super bowl

has gone over the total.

Week 1:  49ers / Lions went over.
Week 2: Falcons / Bucs, Chiefs / Ravens, & Lions / Packers all went over.

 

Week 3 offers Ravens / Lions and Packers / 49ers.

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1 hour ago, Fireballer said:

I just locked in Tompa in an adjusted parlay at +3.5 and over 43.5 at +110.  What am I missing here?

I haven't taken a dive into this game yet, but a simulation site I use has the final score 

Bucs 26

Rams 28

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1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

Glad I didnt get to the window with the Jones over bet.  I'd be upset.  He got enough carries.

Had you placed the bet and woke up this morning to see he had 4 TDs, you'd be thinking he had 150 or more on the ground. 

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Wanting g to bet some Ryder Cup.  Euro line dropped.  That was and still is value but I'm not going to root for Euros.

I am a HOV fan though and was looking at Hov top Euro point getter +700. And top 3 Euro point getter +175.  

Is it dumb to bet on a Ryder Cup rookie? I like his game for match play.

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Starting this week I'm going to track the record of blind betting all rushing unders and see what happens.

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1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

Wanting g to bet some Ryder Cup.  Euri line dropped.  That was and still is value but I'm not going to root for Euros.

I am a HOV fan though and was looking at Hov top Euro point getter +700. And top 3 Euro point getter +175.  

Is it dumb to bet on a Ryder Cup rookie? I like his game for match play.

I thing Hov is a lock to play in all 5 sessions and has a legit shot at hitting either or both of those. 

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Just now, bostonlager said:

I thing Hov is a lock to play in all 5 sessions and has a legit shot at hitting either or both of those. 

I do believe bets like this with several options against eachorher you lose value.  Kind of like those 6 shooters groups where you pick low man out of the 6.  So those prices probably do mot reflect value.  

But yea I do like him this week and in general.  Of course it depends a lot on how thr pairing fall.

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7 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I do believe bets like this with several options against eachorher you lose value.  Kind of like those 6 shooters groups where you pick low man out of the 6.  So those prices probably do mot reflect value.  

But yea I do like him this week and in general.  Of course it depends a lot on how thr pairing fall.

Do you have the o/u bets on points available at your book?

I like Hov over 2.5 points +150 especially if rumors that he will be paired with Rory and or Sergio this week are true. 

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Just now, bostonlager said:

Do you have the o/u bets on points available at your book?

I like Hov over 2.5 points +150 especially if rumors that he will be paired with Rory and or Sergio this week. 

No.  But I could see them putting those up in a day or 2.  

 

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Hatton u 1.5 points +100  - Out of the 24 players participating, no one is hitting it shitttier than him right now. 

Bryson u 2.5 points -200 - I hate taking any bet at that price, but I guarantee he does not participate in either foursomes match meaning he would have to go 3-0. Not going to happen. 

Weisberger o 1.5 +165 - He has been playing sneaky good lately. Worth a roll of the dice. 

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2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Hatton u 1.5 points +100  - Out of the 24 players participating, no one is hitting it shitttier than him right now. 

Bryson u 2.5 points -200 - I hate taking any bet at that price, but I guarantee he does not participate in either foursomes match meaning he would have to go 3-0. Not going to happen. 

Weisberger o 1.5 +165 - He has been playing sneaky good lately. Worth a roll of the dice. 

I like the analysis.

Hatton is 1-2 overall. I think of him as more of a source of energy than his actual play being a factor.  

 

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2 hours ago, tikigods said:

🔒 of the Week

Chiefs -6.5 

Sounds like the square play of the week.  Both teams could be 2-0 or 0-2, KCs defense is atrocious. I'll pass. 

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42 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Another I dropped a few bucks on is Euros leading after day 1 +170.  

Ooh, I like this.  I'm struggling with my early gambling addiction:  I just can't bet on the United States of America to lose yet. But they usually poop the bed in the unconventional matches the first two days, especially day 1.  I can bet that and root for a comeback, which is usually the situation anyway. :thumbsup: 

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8 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

Ooh, I like this.  I'm struggling with my early gambling addiction:  I just can't bet on the United States of America to lose yet. But they usually poop the bed in the unconventional matches the first two days, especially day 1.  I can bet that and root for a comeback, which is usually the situation anyway. :thumbsup: 

DK has Euros +185 each day in foursomes, the alternate ball format that the snotty Americans hate.  I took them each day.

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2 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

Sounds like the square play of the week.  Both teams could be 2-0 or 0-2, KCs defense is atrocious. I'll pass. 

KC will win that game by 10

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