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cyclone24

General beginner gambling…

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We will have to see some injuries but lets get some wildcard banter.  What are we leaning?

Oak @ Cincy -6

NE @ Buffalo -4

Philly @ TB -8.5

SF @ Dallas -3

Pitt @ KC -12.5

AZ @ St Louis -4

 

 

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First glance I like Raiders I suppose but both teams weird me out.

Pitt getting 12.5 seems fine but how can you bet on them? 

I like thr Cards getting 4. 

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Will br about 5 degrees dropping a few more in Buffalo at game time.  Not much wind and no snow however.  

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2 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

We will have to see some injuries but lets get some wildcard banter.  What are we leaning?

Oak @ Cincy -6

NE @ Buffalo -4

Philly @ TB -8.5

SF @ Dallas -3

Pitt @ KC -12.5

AZ @ St Louis -4

 

 

I jumped on Philly +11.5 early.  My nerves can't take much more NFL betting after the Sun nite game.

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Dallas -3.0:  Dallas is healthy and the better team, more than the home field -3 it's lined at.

Pitt +13.0:  13 points is a lot for any NFL game, let alone the playoffs.  KC is streaking, but, Pitt players are going to be going all out for Roethlisberger.  

Leaning Buff and Cincinnati to both cover on the Saturday games, but, will wait to see how/if the lines move.  

Avoiding the Eagles/TB game.  Eagles are garbage, but, Brady has been up and down all season and TB is hurt.  They win but, It's a crap shoot whether they cover this number or not.

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9 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Pitt +13.0:  13 points is a lot for any NFL game, let alone the playoffs.  KC is streaking, but, Pitt players are going to be going all out for Roethlisberger.  

 

This may be the only other bet I make, but I'm on the other side.  I don't see anything that makes this much different from the Dec 26 game.  Pitt didn't even score until 10 mins into the 3rd quarter, and barely had 100 total yds at halftime. I prob won't end up betting it because it's gonna go up and I just won't bet 2TD favorites in the NFL.  31-13 KC

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St Louis has no chance of winning 

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27 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Dallas -3.0:  Dallas is healthy and the better team, more than the home field -3 it's lined at.

I think when talking about who the better team is it is close.  If Jimmy G can play an adequate game I feel the 9ers can play with anyone.  Of course Jimmy has many stinkers so that is quite an IF.  

Trent Williams out would be a big blow to the 9ers for sure.   

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In WC weekend the team with harder strength of schedule is 47-25 straight up  ATS is 48-22-2 

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13 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

In WC weekend the team with harder strength of schedule is 47-25 straight up  ATS is 48-22-2 

Love these type nuggets

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21 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I caught KU at -11 this AM and thought it was a good number.  Yall Ballin so far. @cyclone24

Yeah they play some D…offense is comical though lol. 
 

OU absolutely ran us in the second half though. 

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42 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I caught KU at -11 this AM and thought it was a good number.  Yall Ballin so far. @cyclone24

Think youre going to be ok lol…

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Listen I am rooting for the Bills in the AFC.  I think they are a real dangerous team that can beat anyone.  But this is why Justin's idea that strength of schedule doesn't matter is stupid.  To overlook the context is ridiculous.   

Thr Bills have a very good defense.  But they have given up the least yards since like the 2014 Seahawks.  Their numbers are outliers in the league.  

While they had two signature wins this season -- in Week 5 over the Chiefs and in Week 16 over the Patriots -- the Bills largely feasted this season on inferior quarterbacks. If anything, as FiveThirtyEight.com pointed out, they underperformed based on their schedule this season. Six of their victories came against teams that were using a backup quarterback; and against the five best quarterbacks they faced in 2021, the Bills went 2-3. It stands to reason that you're much more likely to face the latter than the former in the playoffs. In other words, the Bills won the AFC East and they will host a home playoff game without us really understanding how good they are (or aren't)._

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Really all that counts is the present. Are they going to beat the rookie QB and Belichick or not?

I say yes. 

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4 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Really all that counts is the present. Are they going to beat the rookie QB and Belichick or not?

I say yes. 

I say yes.  But when people go to stats and see Bills best defense in the league or talking heads say it.....context is lost.  6 backup QBs.  They dismantled all the bad teams inflating the numbers.  Not ssying their defense isn't good.  But they are gettable.  

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They had 9 sacks vs Zach Wilson.  Any Bills fan would tell you that their pass rush has been an issue for a few years including a majority of this one.  

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19 hours ago, Horseman said:

Avoiding the Eagles/TB game.  Eagles are garbage, but, Brady has been up and down all season and TB is hurt.  They win but, It's a crap shoot whether they cover this number or not.

Fournette is said to look good and will definitely be back.  JPP and Barrett are coming back. David is probably back.  Dean may be a toss up. 

Fairly healthy. 

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Ok i dont really know how i want to bet the super bowl before the playoffs start.  But here is one scenario.  What should i do?

 

lets say im at the betting window right now with $900 and want to spread it across 3 teams: the titans, packers and chiefs.  I personally dont favor any of these teams to win.  The titans are +800 the chiefs are +500 and the packers are +375.  Do i

1. just spread the money evenly between the three teams

2.  Put the most money on the titans since im getting better odds to leverage those odds.

3.  Put the most money on the packers since the crowd favors them and the least money on the titans, using the titans odds as a hedge. 

 

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8 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Ok i dont really know how i want to bet the super bowl before the playoffs start.  But here is one scenario.  What should i do?

 

lets say im at the betting window right now with $900 and want to spread it across 3 teams: the titans, packers and chiefs.  I personally dont favor any of these teams to win.  The titans are +800 the chiefs are +500 and the packers are +375.  Do i

1. just spread the money evenly between the three teams

2.  Put the most money on the titans since im getting better odds to leverage those odds.

3.  Put the most money on the packers since the crowd favors them and the least money on the titans, using the titans odds as a hedge. 

 

I don't know what the strategy is betting on 3 of them.  I know betting a team to win SB at this juncture is a loss of value in most instances.  You ML parlay thrm until they lose or win it for you with rollover.  

Who do you personally favor?  You don't favor any of the teams you are deciding to bet and you are betting on the favorites? Not sure I follow?

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On 1/12/2022 at 2:41 PM, JustinCharge said:

Ok i dont really know how i want to bet the super bowl before the playoffs start.  But here is one scenario.  What should i do?

 

lets say im at the betting window right now with $900 and want to spread it across 3 teams: the titans, packers and chiefs.  I personally dont favor any of these teams to win.  The titans are +800 the chiefs are +500 and the packers are +375.  Do i

1. just spread the money evenly between the three teams

2.  Put the most money on the titans since im getting better odds to leverage those odds.

3.  Put the most money on the packers since the crowd favors them and the least money on the titans, using the titans odds as a hedge. 

 

I would take the Packers out of that equation. If they win you only end up 0.75 units ahead. I would bet Tennessee and hedge them in the AFCCG and SB. 

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9 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I would take the Packers out of that equation. If they win you only end up 0.75 units ahead. I would bet Tennessee and hedge them in the AFCCG and SB. 

something came up and ive got to cancel my vegas trip.  thanks though.

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Gabe Davis over 27.5 yards (+105)

I will take it.  Gabe made plays down the stretch last year and I figured it would ride into this year even with Sanders.  But the Bills have been hell bent on playing Sanders even though Gabe is twice the playmaker.  Well Sanders comes back from injury so this could be dependent on who they give the snaps to.  In his absence Gabe made several nice plays although he had a bad last game dropping 3 balls.  

In 12 games of at least 2 targets he has went over the 27.5 10 times.  The two times he did not both were 2 target games.  One was a 25 yard game the other a 0 yard game.  

He has went over the number 7 of his last 8 games.  

I am banking on the Bills incorporating him enough for at least 3 targets.  Gabe is a vertical threat so it could take just 1 catch.  I could see them wanting to use the reliable vet in the cold conditions.  But Gabe is clearly the more talented player at this stage and makes some amazing sideline catches.

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Has anybody ever tried a system to win at BTTS in soccer?  At first glance, it seems intriguing.  I'm headed down the rabbit hole and will report back.

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UFC Fight Night LET'S GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-------------------------------Prelims--------------

Vanessa Dempoulos -130  Gives up over 5 inches in reach, but, she’s a rock hard tank with twice the striking accuracy.  Both recently lost to Godinez.

Brian Keller +135  I’ve gone back and forth on this one.  Going to settle on the underdog here surprising Kakhramonov who is coming off a 3 win streak.  Sometimes you just got to go with your gut.

Viacheslav Borshchev -190  Dakota is a girls name and he’s no match for a guy who has 5 consonants in a row in his last name. Borshchev throws almost 3 times as many punches.

TJ Brown +160  Another underdog with better striking accuracy and take downs.  Averages over 4 TDs a match.  Benitez has lost 3 out of his last 4.

Ramiz Brahimaj Pick’em  Betting on the new comer with a ton of submissions against the guy that has nothing but decisions since coming into the UFC.  Experience is one thing, but, 100% take down accuracy is another.

Jamie Pickett +130  I’ve got to take the experience and plus money on this one.  I like the striker in this one with a TKO.

-------------------------Main Card-----------------

Bill Alegro +105  Here is where experience bests a newcomer who hasn’t lost a fight in 6 years.  Although Brito’s take down numbers are better on paper the Jiu-Jitsu Alegro has held the belt in Ring of Combat and has 3 fights under his belt in the UFC.

Chase Sherman +105  Two heavyweight strikers and I just don’t see that Collier can knock anyone out. He’s only had one TKO in the UFC and that was 5 years ago against Alberto Uda.  Sherman has a ton of TKOs most recently in 2020 against Ike Villenueva.

Brandon Royval -170  Two grapplers and Bontorin hasn’t had a submission since he arrived at the UFC.  Royval is another guy with 100% takedown accuracy. 

Katlyn Chookagain -175   Only two losses in the past two+ years came against the champ Valentina Schevchenko and Jessica Andrade and she’s already beat Maia in November 2019.  Maia also lost to the champ a year earlier.  Katlyn has a 4” reach advantage should use that to avoid getting taken to the mat and Maia’s grappling. I like this one to go the distance.

Giga Chikadze -260  Hasn’t lost a fight since being submitted in 2018.  His last 3 fights have been TKOs against Simmons, Swanson and Barboza.  Fighting a fellow striker in Kattar, Kattar is coming off a loss to Max Holliday.  All it takes is one punch so if the line approaches -300 I might sprinkle some on the dog instead of taking the heavy favorite.

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3 minutes ago, Horseman said:

UFC Fight Night LET'S GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-------------------------------Prelims--------------

Vanessa Dempoulos -130  Gives up over 5 inches in reach, but, she’s a rock hard tank with twice the striking accuracy.  Both recently lost to Godinez.

Brian Keller +135  I’ve gone back and forth on this one.  Going to settle on the underdog here surprising Kakhramonov who is coming off a 3 win streak.  Sometimes you just got to go with your gut.

Viacheslav Borshchev -190  Dakota is a girls name and he’s no match for a guy who has 5 consonants in a row in his last name. Borshchev throws almost 3 times as many punches.

TJ Brown +160  Another underdog with better striking accuracy and take downs.  Averages over 4 TDs a match.  Benitez has lost 3 out of his last 4.

Ramiz Brahimaj Pick’em  Betting on the new comer with a ton of submissions against the guy that has nothing but decisions since coming into the UFC.  Experience is one thing, but, 100% take down accuracy is another.

Jamie Pickett +130  I’ve got to take the experience and plus money on this one.  I like the striker in this one with a TKO.

-------------------------Main Card-----------------

Bill Alegro +105  Here is where experience bests a newcomer who hasn’t lost a fight in 6 years.  Although Brito’s take down numbers are better on paper the Jiu-Jitsu Alegro has held the belt in Ring of Combat and has 3 fights under his belt in the UFC.

Chase Sherman +105  Two heavyweight strikers and I just don’t see that Collier can knock anyone out. He’s only had one TKO in the UFC and that was 5 years ago against Alberto Uda.  Sherman has a ton of TKOs most recently in 2020 against Ike Villenueva.

Brandon Royval -170  Two grapplers and Bontorin hasn’t had a submission since he arrived at the UFC.  Royval is another guy with 100% takedown accuracy. 

Katlyn Chookagain -175   Only two losses in the past two+ years came against the champ Valentina Schevchenko and Jessica Andrade and she’s already beat Maia in November 2019.  Maia also lost to the champ a year earlier.  Katlyn has a 4” reach advantage should use that to avoid getting taken to the mat and Maia’s grappling. I like this one to go the distance.

Giga Chikadze -260  Hasn’t lost a fight since being submitted in 2018.  His last 3 fights have been TKOs against Simmons, Swanson and Barboza.  Fighting a fellow striker in Kattar, Kattar is coming off a loss to Max Holliday.  All it takes is one punch so if the line approaches -300 I might sprinkle some on the dog instead of taking the heavy favorite.

This is what I'm talking about!  Busting my UFC betting cherry!

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Let's try some NFL props again. 

Bengals - Raiders

Darren Waller o 5 receptions

Hunter Renfrow o 5.5 receptions

Tyler Boyd o 4 receptions

Derek Carr o 23.5 completions

Derek Carr o 252.5 passing

Bills - Patriots

Hunter Henry u 32.5 receiving

Jakobi Meyers u 47.5 receiving

Mac Jones u 205.5 passing

Josh Allen u 245.5 passing

Stefon Diggs u 6.5 receptions

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18 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Has anybody ever tried a system to win at BTTS in soccer?  At first glance, it seems intriguing.  I'm headed down the rabbit hole and will report back.

I don't know what that is. Did it work?

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6 pt teaser

Cincy to even and Pats to +10.5 (-104)

Then have the Gabe Davis over 27.5 yards (+105)

That is probably it for today.   More tomorrow. 

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3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I don't know what that is. Did it work?

Both Teams To Score.  I've won a few random,  but no pattern.  It seems like something could be figured out

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17 hours ago, Horseman said:

UFC Fight Night LET'S GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-------------------------------Prelims--------------

Vanessa Dempoulos -130  Gives up over 5 inches in reach, but, she’s a rock hard tank with twice the striking accuracy.  Both recently lost to Godinez.

Brian Keller +135  I’ve gone back and forth on this one.  Going to settle on the underdog here surprising Kakhramonov who is coming off a 3 win streak.  Sometimes you just got to go with your gut.

Viacheslav Borshchev -190  Dakota is a girls name and he’s no match for a guy who has 5 consonants in a row in his last name. Borshchev throws almost 3 times as many punches.

TJ Brown +160  Another underdog with better striking accuracy and take downs.  Averages over 4 TDs a match.  Benitez has lost 3 out of his last 4.

Ramiz Brahimaj Pick’em  Betting on the new comer with a ton of submissions against the guy that has nothing but decisions since coming into the UFC.  Experience is one thing, but, 100% take down accuracy is another.

Jamie Pickett +130  I’ve got to take the experience and plus money on this one.  I like the striker in this one with a TKO.

-------------------------Main Card-----------------

Bill Alegro +105  Here is where experience bests a newcomer who hasn’t lost a fight in 6 years.  Although Brito’s take down numbers are better on paper the Jiu-Jitsu Alegro has held the belt in Ring of Combat and has 3 fights under his belt in the UFC.

Chase Sherman +105  Two heavyweight strikers and I just don’t see that Collier can knock anyone out. He’s only had one TKO in the UFC and that was 5 years ago against Alberto Uda.  Sherman has a ton of TKOs most recently in 2020 against Ike Villenueva.

Brandon Royval -170  Two grapplers and Bontorin hasn’t had a submission since he arrived at the UFC.  Royval is another guy with 100% takedown accuracy. 

Katlyn Chookagain -175   Only two losses in the past two+ years came against the champ Valentina Schevchenko and Jessica Andrade and she’s already beat Maia in November 2019.  Maia also lost to the champ a year earlier.  Katlyn has a 4” reach advantage should use that to avoid getting taken to the mat and Maia’s grappling. I like this one to go the distance.

Giga Chikadze -260  Hasn’t lost a fight since being submitted in 2018.  His last 3 fights have been TKOs against Simmons, Swanson and Barboza.  Fighting a fellow striker in Kattar, Kattar is coming off a loss to Max Holliday.  All it takes is one punch so if the line approaches -300 I might sprinkle some on the dog instead of taking the heavy favorite.

Are you playing each fight? Is that your style on MMA?

I haven't looked at anything since it is NFL playoffs and won't be watching.  I may play the ppv card next week.

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3 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

6 pt teaser

Cincy to even and Pats to +10.5 (-104)

Then have the Gabe Davis over 27.5 yards (+105)

That is probably it for today.   More tomorrow. 

I saw a trend yesterday saying dogs were 17-1? last 4 years when placed in 6 pt teaser.

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Just now, Fireballer said:

I saw a trend yesterday saying dogs were 17-1? last 4 years when placed in 6 pt teaser.

Could be haven't seen that one.  

I think Bills probably win and I don't think the weather will be too much of a factor.  But Ill just take the 10.5 in a division meeting with 2 good defenses.  

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5 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

This SF/DAL game is interesting.  DAL is prob the most bet on team, and getting only 40% of the bets and 20% of the $$$.

Opinion and gut has me on the 9ers.  I will probably be on their moneyline tomorrow.    Jimmy has to play a decent game.  But I feel outside of QB they can play with anyone.  Jimmy can play well or bad.  That is the hold up.  

They don't match up well in the secondary but the Cowboys offense has hit some road bumps.  Comes down to pressure for SF.  

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1 hour ago, listen2me 23 said:

6 pt teaser

Cincy to even and Pats to +10.5 (-104)

Then have the Gabe Davis over 27.5 yards (+105)

That is probably it for today.   More tomorrow. 

I played this too. The only thing that has me worried is NE has looked bad the last month. Mac Jones is getting ready to play game 18 and could be on the fatigue train. 

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7 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I played this too. The only thing that has me worried is NE has looked bad the last month. Mac Jones is getting ready to play game 18 and could be on the fatigue train. 

Yea pretty much.  I don't think cold will be too much a factor for Allen.  But it could for Mac.  His arm is weak and he has barely any experience in cold weather.  And no experience in this cold of weather.  I could see him turning it over 2 times and not being able to cztch up if behind.  

Pats obviously want to hide Mac as much as possible.  It all depends who can get out front early.  Pats will stick with the run for as long as they can.

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