***Wagering thread***

[bostonlager]

2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

This morning Ole Miss was -10. 

A few hours ago they were -9.5. 

Now they are -9 at -105

 

I know Kiffin as the chiner aids, but what else am I missing? Someone talk me out of taking Ole Miss

Down to 8.5 now. 

[bostonlager]

What is the best thing about betting unders.......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're always winning at the beginning 

[bostonlager]

Michigan WR - Ronnie Bell out for the season 

 

I made a ton betting his unders last year. 

[Fireballer]

7 hours ago, bostonlager said:

but what else am I missing? 

Lol...evidently nothing!  Did you get them at a bargain?

[bostonlager]

Just now, Fireballer said:

Lol...evidently nothing!  Did you get them at a bargain?

I played -9 because I've been drinking all day. I hope it wins, but I do not usually touch sides/totals because this has the making of a backdoor cover by the dog. 

[Fireballer]

4 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I played -9 because I've been drinking all day. I hope it wins, but I do not usually touch sides/totals because this has the making of a backdoor cover by the dog. 

I like it.  I'd be more worried if Ole Miss wasn't at home.  

[bostonlager]

Just now, Fireballer said:

I like it.  I'd be more worried if Ole Miss wasn't at home.  

I would like it more if Corral quit passing and started running

[Fireballer]

Just now, bostonlager said:

I would like it more if Corral quit passing and started running

How bout these Ole Miss cheerleaders.  Holy smokes

[bostonlager]

I'm hoping for 4-3 on props at this point

[bostonlager]

1 minute ago, Fireballer said:

How bout these Ole Miss cheerleaders.  Holy smokes

I'm still in Charley Hull mode... haven't noticed yet, but will make a point to tune in. lol

[bostonlager]

Backdoor dogsh1t with Mitchell too. Why the fock are they running the ball down 26?

[bostonlager]

11 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Louisville - Ole Miss

These are on Bet Builder

Malik Cunningham u 270.5 passing

Matt Corral u 355.5 passing

Jonathan Mingo u 60.5 receiving

Braden Smith u 53.5 receiving 

 

10 hours ago, bostonlager said:

More Bet Builder added ( I am drinking today and looking for action. Play at your own risk)

Jalen Mitchell u 64.5 rushing 

Matt Corral o 35.5 rushing (might very well be the only over rushing I take all year)

 

8 hours ago, bostonlager said:

One more Bet Builder add

Matt Corral u 25.5 completions

Today: 6-1

Season: 33-16-2

[Fireballer]

2 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

 

 

Today: 6-1

Season: 33-16-2

Fuk.  Outstanding. 

[bostonlager]

1 minute ago, Fireballer said:

Fuk.  Outstanding. 

I think someone owes me some football or baseball cards 

[bostonlager]

DraftKings 

Dak Prescott u 293.5 passing

[bostonlager]

Dallas - Tampa Bay 

Bet Builder Card

Ezekiel Elliott u 3.5 receptions

Ezekiel Elliott u 21.5 receiving 

Dalton Schultz u 20.5 receiving

Dak Prescott u 290.5 passing 

[bostonlager]

Draftkings has all props already posted. I can't play them, but here are some for those that can. 

Ben Roethlisberger u 267.5 passing

Josh Allen u 281.5 passing

Ryan Fitzpatrick u 264.5 passing

Mac Jones o 224.5 passing

Baker Mayfield u 261.5 passing

 

 

 

[GutterBoy]

Weeks 1 and 2 unders usually pay well

[bostonlager]

8 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Weeks 1 and 2 unders usually pay well

 

[GutterBoy]

A sure fire winner for week 1 is a 6 point teaser play.  SF and WFT.  Only pays -134 but guaranteed money.

[bostonlager]

2 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

A sure fire winner for week 1 is a 6 point teaser play.  SF and WFT.  Only pays -134 but guaranteed money.

Are you getting 1.5 with WFT? If so that would classify this as a Wong teaser, pushing that line through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 

SF teased with LAR would get you through both numbers and would be a better play. 

[GutterBoy]

6 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Are you getting 1.5 with WFT? If so that would classify this as a Wong teaser, pushing that line through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 

SF teased with LAR would get you through both numbers and would be a better play. 

Yes. Rams is another good play, or if you want action on THursday the Bucs teased down to 2.5 is sex.

[bostonlager]

2 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Rams is another good play, or if you want action on THursday the Bucs teased down to 2.5 is sex.

You have the right idea. Any 7.5, 8, or 8.5 favorite, you tease down. Any 1.5, 2, or 2.5 dog, you tease them up 

They all won't hit, but over the course of a season they season they should hit at 60% or better. 

[GutterBoy]

Also, you have some pretty good locks that you can parlay together.  For example SF, Seattle, Balt and LA Rams parlay pays +310 right now.  That's a lock.

[bostonlager]

2 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Also, you have some pretty good locks that you can parlay together.  For example SF, Seattle, Balt and LA Rams parlay pays +310 right now.  That's a lock.

I try to stay away from ML parlays. 2 of those teams are on the road and one of them is trying to use a RB to play QB in Baltimore. Good luck with it, though. Hope it hits. 

[listen2me 23]

Please don't use the word lock.  

[listen2me 23]

I am not an expert but I have bet for a while.

If alternate lines are available to parlay, I am not sure why anyone would box themselves in with standard teases.

Also i don't love parlays.  But I would rather ML parlay say TB this week than teasing them to 2.5.  But that is just me.  If you are juicing your plays by teasing everything then just go ahead and take the MLs and forget about points.  Of course this is when you are trying to tease favorites down.

[bostonlager]

19 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I am not an expert but I have bet for a while.

If alternate lines are available to parlay, I am not sure why anyone would box themselves in with standard teases.

Also i don't love parlays.  But I would rather ML parlay say TB this week than teasing them to 2.5.  But that is just me.  If you are juicing your plays by teasing everything then just go ahead and take the MLs and forget about points.  Of course this is when you are trying to tease favorites down.

A ML parly on TB and SF gets you -167

Teasing down to 2 and 1.5 gets you -120.

How many games in the NFL are decided by 2 points or less?

[GutterBoy]

1 minute ago, bostonlager said:

A ML parly on TB and SF gets you -167

Teasing down to 2 and 1.5 gets you -120.

How many games in the NFL are decided by 2 points or less?

<5%  That's why you tease.

[bostonlager]

Here is a decent article explaining why you want to tease or push the line through the 2 key numbers of 3 and 7. 

https://www.sportsgamblingpodcast.com/2018/10/23/the-wong-teaser-how-professionals-use-teasers/

[bostonlager]

Approximately 40% of all NFL games end with a scoring margin between 3-7

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-key-betting-numbers-spread-margins-of-victory-line-value

[listen2me 23]

25 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

A ML parly on TB and SF gets you -167

Teasing down to 2 and 1.5 gets you -120.

How many games in the NFL are decided by 2 points or less?

Only 1 game in week 1 last year and it was 2.  1 game in week 2 anf it was 1pt.  1 tie in week 3 and also a 1 pt game in week 3.  Also you lose a tease.  It doesn't reduce.  Maybe your books have reducing teases?

It does depend.  Sometimes I can reduce the ML slightly by taking the alternate line of -.5.  But I'm not greedy Ill just eat the ML juice for peace of mind.

It also puts more games on thr table that do not align for a good tease.

[listen2me 23]

That said I usually bet sides or props.  I will buy a half a pt if I have to.  

[bostonlager]

Just now, listen2me 23 said:

That said I usually bet sides or props.  I will buy a half a pt if I have to.  

Good luck, man. I'm in here this thread to try and help others out. I hate sportsbooks with every fiber in my body and want to take every dollar from them I can until they tell me my business is no longer welcome. 

[bostonlager]

11 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Only 1 game in week 1 last year and it was 2.  1 game in week 2 anf it was 1pt.  1 tie in week 3 and also a 1 pt game in week 3.  Also you lose a tease.  It doesn't reduce.  Maybe your books have reducing teases?

It does depend.  Sometimes I can reduce the ML slightly by taking the alternate line of -.5.  But I'm not greedy Ill just eat the ML juice for peace of mind.

It also puts more games on thr table that do not align for a good tease.

Also, start posting your plays in here before kickoff. 3 things can happen, and 2 of them make you useful. 

1. You pick winners and we can tail you. 

2. You pick losers and we can fade you. 

3. You're not good enough to tail and not crappy enough to fade. 

[listen2me 23]

Just now, bostonlager said:

Also, start posting your plays in here before kickoff. 3 things can happen, and 2 of them make you useful. 

1. You pick winners and we can tail you. 

2. You pick losers and we can fade you. 

3. You're not good enough to tail and not crappy enough to fade. 

I have before and will again.  I'm all for the gambling threads but they usually fizzle out.  Lets get a good thread going for college and nfl.  

I have Iowa +5 at Iowa St so far.  

[Fireballer]

Good banter in here guys, thanks.

[Fireballer]

Holy sh!t.  I just took an a$$ raping on the Royals/Os ML.  

[bostonlager]

6 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Holy sh!t.  I just took an a$$ raping on the Royals/Os ML.  

I used to dabble in strikeout props. I can start taking a look on football off days if you want. 

[BeenHereBefore]

For tonight game I have

TB -8.5 under 51.5

TB -8.5 and ML doesn't pay good

Dak most passing yards  Thinking they will behind and throwing more

Amari Cooper O  5.5 Receps Same

Succup O 7.5 points