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snatchit

Don't forget AJ Green

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Great reports out of camp, if he can stay healthy... he would be a strong # 3 WR

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3 minutes ago, snatchit said:

Great reports out of camp, if he can stay healthy... he would be a strong # 3 WR

Doubtful, but hype springs eternal.

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Big if, although he managed to play 16 games last season.

He's in a really good spot, across from D Hopkins, with Kyler Murray slinging it around the field.

He's worth a late round flier I suppose. I don't much think he's gonna return to his past glory, but he could do like Larry Fitzgerald did his last few seasons.

That is find himself a Marques Colston sort of role and hang around a couple of extra seasons

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19 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Big if, although he managed to play 16 games last season.

He played all 16 games, and averaged 7.0 PPR points per game (which was 96th in the NFL), leaving him as the WR68 on the season.  I don't know how big snatchit's leagues are, but I"m looking for something a little stronger in a WR3.

His teammate C.J. Uzomah averaged 11.4 PPR points per game; just sayin'...

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54 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

He played all 16 games, and averaged 7.0 PPR points per game (which was 96th in the NFL), leaving him as the WR68 on the season.  I don't know how big snatchit's leagues are, but I"m looking for something a little stronger in a WR3.

I guess he's banking on the change of scenery making a big difference

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On 8/25/2021 at 8:54 PM, snatchit said:

Great reports out of camp, if he can stay healthy... he would be a strong # 3 WR

He's physically on his last leg.  I would look elsewhere.  

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On 8/25/2021 at 8:07 PM, polecatt said:

I guess he's banking on the change of scenery making a big difference

I'm sure it will help.

at least as much as that would help anyone moving to a more talented team.

he could do better, but given his age, the upside is somewhat limited.

Draft him as a backup.  if he gives you startable numbers, you got him for almost free.

dont pay based on what hes done in the past.  I dont think hes the same player anymore.

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On 8/25/2021 at 7:54 PM, snatchit said:

Great reports out of camp, if he can stay healthy... he would be a strong # 3 WR

I took him in a 25 dollar best ball today because of this thread as my WR 6.

 

It will be the only copy of him i own this year though. I had both AJ green and antonio brown in my main dynasty league throughout their glory years. I do have a soft spot for AJ because of that. If he has a good season i want him somewhere.

 

Although i still think he is washed up. Antonio brown on the otherhand i am willing to bet on.

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Have you guys read what the beat writers that are at the practices ..are saying ? 

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It would be real hard to trust Green as my wr3. 

As a wr5 I wouldn’t have a problem sitting him on my bench and see what happens , worst thing that happens , is I could let him go to stream a Qb or te.  

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10 hours ago, snatchit said:

Have you guys read what the beat writers that are at the practices ..are saying ? 

It's nice that he has been shining in practice, but he hasn't been fantasy relevant for 3 years and he's 33 years old. WR is so deep, I'd rather have a guy like waddle or Corey Davis or Marquez Callaway, etc.

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If the cost is low sure I’ll add him to my bench. Not making him a starter though.

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12 hours ago, jrokh said:

It's nice that he has been shining in practice, but he hasn't been fantasy relevant for 3 years and he's 33 years old. WR is so deep, I'd rather have a guy like waddle or Corey Davis or Marquez Callaway, etc.

of course, those guys go several rounds before

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He has a real Qb and doesn’t have the pressure of being the guy anymore. Door is wide open for him to return value at his low adp.

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I dont deny you could get some good starts.  Hes on a better team.  in better shape.    came back from a bad injury last year.

I got him on waivers last year and got a couple good starts out of him.  

He probably should be rostered.  I just wouldnt draft him to be a starter.

Even if his stats get 10% better, thats enough to make him at least good when the matchup is reasonable.   But this is one of those guys you NEVER over pay to acquire.   Grab him late.  if he sucks, hes not ruining your draft.

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30 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I dont deny you could get some good starts.  Hes on a better team.  in better shape.    came back from a bad injury last year.

I got him on waivers last year and got a couple good starts out of him.  

He probably should be rostered.  I just wouldnt draft him to be a starter.

Even if his stats get 10% better, thats enough to make him at least good when the matchup is reasonable.   But this is one of those guys you NEVER over pay to acquire.   Grab him late.  if he sucks, hes not ruining your draft.

This... I grabbed him in the 13th round. You can just google him, reporters saying he looks like the 2014 AJ. What if they are right ? I get it, he wasnt right last year. He checked out from Cincy mentally. 

 

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39 minutes ago, snatchit said:

This... I grabbed him in the 13th round. You can just google him, reporters saying he looks like the 2014 AJ. What if they are right ? I get it, he wasnt right last year. He checked out from Cincy mentally. 

 

well, you didnt pay a terrible price to get him.  Thats important.

as for the reporters,  They are paid to sell papers (or get clicks) so they will sometimes write anything to sell it.  

Unless it comes from a reliable source (and there are a couple out there) I'd probably not put too much stock in the news guys. 

If you really believe in someone that is that far off of traditional rankings, the only person you can really trust is yourself.   watch him play and see if he passes the eye test.

does he do the same things some of the top players at his position does?

I have used the eye test before.    a long time ago a kid named Blount broke in as a rookie with (tennessee I think)   I watched him literally run over players who were in his way and I said to myself, this kid will eventually start.  If you can mow down defenders like he did, you have a talent not a lot of others have.

by end of year he was in Tampa and got the starting gig shortly thereafter.

unfortunately he had some off field issues that dogged him and he wasnt as good as he could have been (though he was pretty good at his best)

That was a case where the eye test suited me just fine regardless of what others said about the kid.

 

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5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

That was a case where the eye test suited me just fine regardless of what others said about the kid.

The eye test has a lot more weight when it's the only metric you have.  We know what we have in AJ Green--a WR who was oft-injured in his prime, who hasn't been fantasy-relevant for three years now.  The chances that he will "re-emerge" at the age of 33 over guys like Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore is exceedingly slim.  There are literally dozens of better options in those late rounds.

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6 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

The eye test has a lot more weight when it's the only metric you have.  We know what we have in AJ Green--a WR who was oft-injured in his prime, who hasn't been fantasy-relevant for three years now.  The chances that he will "re-emerge" at the age of 33 over guys like Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore is exceedingly slim.  There are literally dozens of better options in those late rounds.

maybe we are saying the same thing in different ways.

I'm saying dont just trust the beat writers.  if (note the word IF) you are gonna go away from conventional wisdom, its best that you see for yourself and make sure he passes the eye test.

watch a game, get some tape of him in practice.    something.

I personally dont mind taking a flyer on someone like that late in a draft.   If you are gonna go with someone who conventional wisdom tells you to avoid, thats the way to do it.

dont spend a pick in the top 5 or 6 rounds on such a player.

Like I mentioned earlier.  he came back from a major injury last year.  it is possible he wasnt in top shape going into last season and may have still been recovering.

he put up a handful of fantasy worthy games last year, but was nothing special.  good enough as a streamer/bye week filler.

a better QB, offense, and system combined with him coming in looking to be in great shape may be enough to make him worthy of a WR4 or 5 option

there are worse gambles out there.   If I take him its gonna be the last round or two of the draft, but thats largely dependent on who else is available.   I play in 12 team leagues that start 3 WR, so you go pretty deep at the position. and most rosters keep 5 WR's.  

In a league that only starts 2 WR maybe hes not on the radar at all. 

All I know is drafting him as a starter is likely a mistake for 2 reasons:

1) why pay a 6th or 7th round pick for a player you can get in round 12 or 13?

2) there are better players out there at that point in the draft.

There are other reasons too, but most of those other reasons are just sub categories of reason 1 and 2.

if hes DND for you I understand your reasons.   as you well know, I always tell people I have very few DND players but I do have players I dont draft at their ADP (which I guess is the equivalence of the same)  

I think the guy is good enough to be rostered in most formats.  Not likely good enough to start most weeks unless you have injuries or bye weeks.

Those guys still have value.  its just that the value is low.

In the case of AJ  we all will probably realize by week 3 whether the guy is worth keeping.   so if he spends a late rounder on him I really dont think it ruins his draft.  and if it pans out, hes happy.

I think everyone should have one pick in a draft where they go off the board on someone they like.   Better that the pick is late in the draft than early.

 

 

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He’s only worth keeping on the bench. 

Dont see any time one would trust him even in a flex spot,  he’ll be like many late round WRs, he’ll have some really nice games and then you will start him in the flex lose by 8 points and Green scores you 4.  

 

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20 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I dont deny you could get some good starts.  Hes on a better team.  in better shape.    came back from a bad injury last year.

I got him on waivers last year and got a couple good starts out of him.  

He probably should be rostered.  I just wouldnt draft him to be a starter.

Even if his stats get 10% better, thats enough to make him at least good when the matchup is reasonable.   But this is one of those guys you NEVER over pay to acquire.   Grab him late.  if he sucks, hes not ruining your draft.

This... I grabbed him in the 13th round. You can just google him, reporters saying he looks like the 2014 AJ. What if they are right ? I get it, he wasnt right last year. He checked out from Cincy mentally. 

 

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He was # 1 WR in the league that was thrown uncatchable balls last year.. look it up. 

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20 minutes ago, snatchit said:

He was # 1 WR in the league that was thrown uncatchable balls last year.. look it up. 

Maybe if he was a better WR, they would have been catchable.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Maybe if he was a better WR, they would have been catchable.

Ya AJ  Green sucks... gotcha. Man if I can get a good fill in bye week #3. I am fine with that. I am betting he will be better.  I understand, you dont have many original thoughts. Give AJ a few games and we will see

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Sorry but I don’t see it either , if I was to draft him, he would be a bench sitter for a while until I know I could trust him. 

Kirk and R Moore are also on the team, and have seen that they have been good also. 

Tough one.  

I mean I might still get him at my draft, but he’ll be a wr5 at the best.  

Good luck. 

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Maybe if he was a better WR, they would have been catchable.

BTW I brought up Sony Michel before he was traded.... I am sure you poo pooed that too.  I know McVay said Hendersons will be very involved... I have heard this from McVay before. Michel is a Akers clone... not quite as talented. But what they want. Give that a few games too.

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1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Sorry but I don’t see it either , if I was to draft him, he would be a bench sitter for a while until I know I could trust him. 

Kirk and R Moore are also on the team, and have seen that they have been good also. 

Tough one.  

I mean I might still get him at my draft, but he’ll be a wr5 at the best.  

Good luck. 

He is my WR 6 or 7.... 

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Yeah I can’t go that deep on my bench five wr would be about it, so last lol.  

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we will see, I am just going by the reports from people that have watched him in the off season. Maybe you guys know more than them 

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Problem is most reports about most players always seem positive, and then the season starts.  

Im just having a tough time seeing him return to being a wr3.  

I think he’ll post some wr3 games a few times maybe ,, but when do you know when to start him. 

Tough one. 

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yeah I can’t go that deep on my bench five wr would be about it, so last lol.  

we start 3 WR's and a flex

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Just two and a rb/wr/ te flex.  

Even the Guru has Listed Green as a wr6 in his latest ppr rankings.  

 

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4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Just two and a rb/wr/ te flex.  

Even the Guru has Listed Green as a wr6 in his latest ppr rankings.  

 

I know most say that is his value. We shall see

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Of course, I hope I’m wrong and he’s a wr3 , but we shall see.  

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1 hour ago, snatchit said:

I know most say that is his value. We shall see

his value  is  what people are  willing to  pay  at the time.

if WR6 is  his value today so be it.  

I think the  #1 biggest risk is that hes old and likely gets  hurt.   skill decline too.  but coming off a  major  injury last year I'm willing to give some benefit of the doubt.

but not so much that I'm willing to pay more than market value for the guy.

I wouldnt  be  surprised  to see him have a big week 1 then fade away as the  grind  of the season gets to him.

I am encouraged  by  the report that hes in top shape.   that will mitigate some of that risk..

If he has  a big week 1, you may  be  best advised to sell at that point unless week2 looks like an easy matchup.

I could see people quickly  jumping on the wagon if he  has a good week 1.  if that happens, there is profit there (or you have a player  who is exceeding his draft value  which is also fine)

eihter  way, its been a fun chat.   good luck.

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Nate Burleson that studies WR's more than anyone.... Is Pegging AJ  Green as the come back player of the year. So there's that.

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12 minutes ago, snatchit said:

Nate Burleson that studies WR's more than anyone.... Is Pegging AJ  Green as the come back player of the year. So there's that.

A) How could you possibly know that Nate Burleson studies WR's more than anyone else?

B ) Considering AJ Green had 47 receptions for 523 yards and 2 TD's in 16 games last year, he could qualify as the comeback player of the year and still not be all that fantasy relevant.

C) What happens to Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore? 

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